Bedard's delay, Dallas' depth and seven 32 in 32 signals: NHL offseason digest, Aug. 3–10
Bedard's November target, Dallas' underlying scoring profile and seven NHL.com team previews turn a game-free week into a practical fantasy draft-board update.
The regular season is still three weeks away, but the fantasy board moved anyway. From Aug. 3–10, NHL.com’s 32 in 32 series added seven team previews, while two Aug. 6 contracts clarified very different kinds of risk: Chicago’s Connor Bedard remains out until November after shoulder surgery, and Pittsburgh’s Ville Koivunen received eight years but no guaranteed opening-night job. 123
There were no regular-season games, weekly game leaders, special-teams rates or wild-card changes in this window. The 2026–27 schedule begins Sept. 29, so the useful catch-up is about projected roles, health and the conditions that could turn a late-round name into a draftable one. The projections below are NHL.com’s preseason estimates, not new game results.
The board in one screen
- Biggest availability discount: Connor Bedard. NHL.com still projects 81 points and ranks him 65th overall, but its Blackhawks EDGE preview says he is not expected back until November after July shoulder surgery. That makes his draft cost a format-and-roster question, not a simple talent question. 24
- Strongest two-layer contender case: Dallas. Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston each scored 45 goals last season, while Dallas led the League in high-danger goals and ranked fourth in high-danger shot-attempt differential at plus-122. The scoring is obvious; the underlying shot profile gives it support. 5
- Best cheap defense upside: Calgary and Chicago. Simon Nemec is projected for 40 points at rank 190 after arriving from New Jersey; Bowen Byram is projected for 50 points at rank 164 as Chicago’s clear No. 1 defenseman with top power-play exposure. Neither role is fully bankable until camp, but both have a path that the rankings may not be pricing yet. 46
- Detroit’s value is tied to one unresolved roster decision. Dylan Larkin requested a trade after last season and remains with the Red Wings. His departure would change Detroit’s center depth, power-play shape and the fantasy value of Alex DeBrincat, Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider. 7
- The two new contracts are not equivalent signals. Koivunen’s eight-year, $32 million deal is a bet on future production, but Pittsburgh says he must earn his roster spot. Philadelphia’s Nikita Grebenkin signed for two years and $2.2 million after missing the final 13 regular-season games and all 10 playoff games with an upper-body injury. 38
Seven team boards, compared
NHL.com published the relevant fantasy pages between Aug. 4 and Aug. 10. The table keeps the same fields across teams: the highest-leverage projection, a useful secondary name, and the condition that decides whether the projection is actionable.
| Team | Highest-leverage projection | Secondary value | What must be confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calgary | Simon Nemec, D: 40 points, rank 190 | Matvei Gridin: 46 points; Matt Coronato: 53 | Nemec and Zayne Parekh competing for first-unit power-play work; Coronato’s top-line role. 6 |
| Carolina | Brandon Bussi, G: 33 wins, rank 80 | Sebastian Aho: 81 points; Jackson Blake: 61-point breakout projection | Whether Bussi owns the workload after Frederik Andersen left; Seth Jarvis is expected to miss the first couple of months. 9 |
| Chicago | Connor Bedard: 81 points, rank 65 | Anton Frondell: 62 points; Bowen Byram: 50 | Bedard’s return timeline, Frondell’s top-six center role and Byram’s first-unit power-play minutes. 4 |
| Colorado | Nathan MacKinnon: 130 points, rank 2 | Cale Makar: 87; Martin Necas: 99 | Health and line continuity after MacKinnon and Makar dealt with injuries during the Western Conference Final. 10 |
| Columbus | Zach Werenski: 83 points, rank 11 | Kirill Marchenko: 74; Adam Fantilli: 68 | Whether Valeri Nichushkin actually gets first-line and first-power-play deployment; Jet Greaves is projected for 25 wins. 11 |
| Dallas | Jason Robertson: 98 points, rank 9 | Wyatt Johnston: 96; Mikko Rantanen: 96 | Rantanen and Roope Hintz staying healthy; Jake Oettinger’s rate rebound from a .899 save percentage. 12 |
| Detroit | Alex DeBrincat: 79 points, rank 48 | Dylan Larkin: 78; Lucas Raymond: 77; Moritz Seider: 65 | Larkin’s trade situation and the new first power-play mix after Patrick Kane left. 13 |
The table is most useful when read as a set of prerequisites. A projection is not an opening-night depth chart. For fantasy managers, the next piece of evidence is line assignment, power-play unit and goalie workload at camp.
Breakout names with a real case behind them
These are not weekly game breakouts; there was no regular-season sample in the window. They are preseason candidates whose recent production or role change gives the projection something concrete to stand on.
| Player | Evidence already on the record | Fantasy read |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Frondell, Chicago | He had 9 points, 3 goals and 36 shots in his first 12 NHL games as an 18-year-old; NHL.com projects 62 points and calls him a top-five Calder candidate. 4 | The upside is real, but the opening role could be inflated by Bedard’s absence. Recheck his center assignment before treating 62 points as a base case. |
| Bowen Byram, Chicago | He played all 177 of Buffalo’s games over the past two seasons and is expected to be Chicago’s clear No. 1 defenseman, with a projected 50 points. 4 | This is a role bet with category upside. The roster spot is clear; the power-play unit is the important confirmation. |
| Matvei Gridin, Calgary | After becoming a regular on Jan. 17, he produced 19 points in 33 games and tied for the team lead over that span with 7 power-play points. 6 | His 46-point projection is aggressive enough to matter in deep leagues, but Calgary’s lineup still has to give him a stable top-six role. |
| Matt Coronato, Calgary | He led the Flames with 197 shots last season and is projected for 53 points. NHL EDGE placed him in the 95th percentile among forwards for midrange shots on goal. 614 | The shot volume gives him a sturdier floor than a pure breakout pick. First-line and first-power-play exposure would change the ceiling. |
| Emmitt Finnie, Detroit | He ranked in the 91st percentile among forwards in high-danger shots on goal, with 70. Detroit’s power play could change after Kane’s departure and with Larkin’s situation unresolved. 7 | The 41-point projection is a watchlist number, not a draft-day assumption. He becomes more interesting if camp gives him first-unit power-play time. |
| Brandon Bussi, Carolina | He went 31-6-2 in his first season, reached 30 wins in 37 games, and posted a 1.60 GAA and .931 save percentage in four playoff starts. NHL.com projects 33 wins. 9 | The opportunity is obvious after Andersen’s departure. The workload split, rather than the talent case, is the risk. |
EDGE: the numbers underneath the rankings
The useful advanced metrics this week were mostly shot location, skating speed and five-on-five control. They help separate a repeatable profile from a projection that depends on a shooting spike.
| Team | Underlying signal | What it says about fantasy value |
|---|---|---|
| Calgary | The Flames ranked 10th with 87 goals off the rush despite having the fewest 20-plus-mph speed bursts in the League. Morgan Frost led the team with 16 high-danger goals, while Coronato’s midrange-shot rate sat in the 95th percentile. 14 | Calgary’s value is concentrated in finishing and role growth, not team-wide pace. Coronato and Frost are more interesting if their special-teams minutes hold. |
| Chicago | Chicago tied Buffalo for the League’s best high-danger shooting percentage at 22.7%. Frank Nazar scored 10 of 15 goals from high-danger areas, while Spencer Knight posted a .847 high-danger save percentage and .931 five-on-five close save percentage. 2 | The offense has a plausible bridge while Bedard is out, but the power play was only 16.9%, 29th in the NHL. Do not treat high-danger finishing as a full-team scoring guarantee. |
| Colorado | The Avalanche ranked first in 20-plus-mph speed bursts, second in five-on-five shot-attempt percentage at 56.4%, and third in offensive-zone time at 42.8%. Wedgewood led goalies in quality-start percentage at 74.4%. 15 | The MacKinnon–Necas–Makar projections have the strongest process support in this group. Colorado’s goalie tandem also has a rate-and-workload case, though the starts may be split. |
| Dallas | Dallas led the League with 157 high-danger goals, allowed the second-fewest high-danger goals at 100, and ranked fourth in high-danger shot-attempt differential at plus-122. 5 | Robertson and Johnston are supported by both volume and finishing. Oettinger’s .899 save percentage is the discount; his quality-start and close-game numbers argue against writing him off. |
| Detroit | Detroit’s power play converted at 22.6% and held the fourth-best power-play offensive-zone time at 60.6%. Seider led Red Wings skaters in five-on-five shot-attempt percentage at 53.2%. 7 | The power play can support several fantasy pieces, but its value is sensitive to Larkin’s status and the replacement for Kane’s minutes. |
Health, contracts and the next decision point
Bedard’s shoulder is the largest immediate draft variable. NHL.com’s fantasy page still projects 81 points, but its EDGE page says he is not expected until November. In a league with injured-reserve slots, that is a different asset from the same player in a shallow league with no stash room. 24
Seth Jarvis is a separate Carolina discount. The Hurricanes preview lists his shoulder surgery as a key injury and expects him to miss the first couple of months. That is why Ehlers, Stankoven and Blake appear in the projection discussion: their opportunity depends on how Carolina fills Jarvis’s minutes, not only on what they did last season. 9
Koivunen’s contract is a signal of belief, not a lineup announcement. Pittsburgh signed him for eight years at $4 million per season after a 41-point, 34-game AHL regular season, but general manager Kyle Dubas said he still has to earn a roster spot in camp. That makes him a watchlist player until his deployment is visible. 3
Grebenkin’s new deal comes with a health check attached. He had only 14 points in 55 Flyers games last season and missed the final 13 regular-season games plus the entire playoff run with an upper-body injury. Philadelphia’s own GM described his status as uncertain in June; the contract does not remove that uncertainty. 8
Watchlist for the next update
- Draft anchors: Dallas’s Robertson, Johnston and Rantanen; Colorado’s MacKinnon, Makar and Necas. Their projections are backed by recent production and strong underlying team profiles.
- Late-round upside: Nemec, Byram, Coronato and Bussi. Each has a clear route to value, but each needs a role or workload confirmation.
- Potential deployment winners: Frondell while Bedard is out, Finnie if Detroit opens a power-play slot, and Chicago’s Nazar if he takes the top center job.
- Do not skip the health checks: Bedard’s November target, Jarvis’s early-season absence and Grebenkin’s recovery status are more actionable than another generic ranking list.
- Wait for camp before overpaying: Koivunen’s lineup spot, Larkin’s Detroit status, Carolina’s goalie split and the first power-play units are the missing facts that separate a watchlist from a roster move.
The preseason board now has enough information to identify the bets. It does not yet have enough deployment evidence to settle them.
References
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