HPMOR 第8章｜确认偏差（中英对照）
第8章里，赫敏在霍格沃茨特快上经历哈利的实验，亲眼看见只寻找支持自己猜想的证据会怎样误导判断。
英文原文取自 HPMOR 官方第 8 章。中文为依据英文独立重写的非官方译文；对应中文译本仅作理解、术语和遗漏的校对参考，未原样转载。
"Allow me to warn you that challenging my ingenuity is a dangerous sort of project, and may tend to make your life a lot more surreal."
「请允许我提醒你，挑战我的才智是一项危险的工程，可能会让你的生活变得超现实得多。」
No one had asked for help, that was the problem. They'd just gone around talking, eating, or staring into the air while their parents exchanged gossip. For whatever odd reason, no one had been sitting down reading a book, which meant she couldn't just sit down next to them and take out her own book. And even when she'd boldly taken the initiative by sitting down and continuing her third read-through of Hogwarts: A History, no one had seemed inclined to sit down next to her.
没人来请她帮忙，这就是问题所在。大家只是到处聊天、吃东西，或者在父母交换八卦的时候望着半空出神。不知出于什么古怪的原因，没有一个人坐下来看书，那就意味着她没法挨着他们坐下，然后掏出自己的书来看。就算她大胆地抢先一步，坐下来继续她第三遍读《霍格沃茨：一段校史》，也没有人显出要坐到她旁边的意思。
Aside from helping people with their homework, or anything else they needed, she really didn't know how to meet people. She didn't feel like she was a shy person. She thought of herself as a take-charge sort of girl. And yet, somehow, if there wasn't some request along the lines of "I can't remember how to do long division" then it was just too awkward to go up to someone and say... what? She'd never been able to figure out what. And there didn't seem to be a standard information sheet, which was ridiculous. The whole business of meeting people had never seemed sensible to her. Why did she have to take all the responsibility herself when there were two people involved? Why didn't adults ever help? She wished some other girl would just walk up to her and say, "Hermione, the teacher told me to be friends with you."
除了帮别人做作业，或者满足他们别的需要之外，她真的不知道该怎么结识人。她并不觉得自己是个害羞的人。她把自己看作那种敢作敢当、拿主意做主的女孩。可是，不知怎么的，要是没有一句类似「我忘了怎么做长除法」的请求打底，就这样走过去跟一个人开口——说什么好呢？她一直想不出该说什么。而似乎也不存在一份标准的自我介绍表格，这简直荒谬透了。在她看来，结识人这件事从来都不合情理。明明是两个人的事，为什么偏要她一个人承担起全部责任？为什么大人们从来都不帮忙？她真希望有哪个别的女孩能径直走到「她」面前，说一句「赫敏，老师让我来做你的朋友。」
But let it be quite clear that Hermione Granger, sitting alone on the first day of school in one of the few compartments that had been empty, in the last carriage of the train, with the compartment door left open just in case anyone for any reason wanted to talk to her, was not sad, lonely, gloomy, depressed, despairing, or obsessing about her problems. She was, rather, rereading Hogwarts: A History for the third time and quite enjoying it, with only a faint tinge of annoyance in the back of her mind at the general unreasonableness of the world.
但有一点必须讲清楚：赫敏·格兰杰在开学第一天独自坐在为数不多的空隔间里，坐在列车的最后一节车厢，隔间的门特意敞开着，以防万一有任何人有任何理由想跟她搭话——她并不悲伤、孤独、阴郁、消沉、绝望，也没有在为她的问题纠结。她其实正第三遍读《霍格沃茨：一段校史》，读得颇为快活，只在脑海深处对这个世界整体上的不合情理存着一丝淡淡的恼火。
There was the sound of an inter-train door opening, and then footsteps and an odd slithering sound coming down the hallway of the train. Hermione laid aside Hogwarts: A History and stood up and stuck her head outside - just in case someone needed help - and saw a young boy in a wizard's dress robes, probably first or second year going by his height, and looking quite silly with a scarf wrapped around his head. A small trunk stood on the floor next to him. Even as she saw him, he knocked on the door of another, closed compartment, and he said in a voice only slightly muffled by the scarf, "Excuse me, can I ask a quick question?"
这时传来车厢之间的门被拉开的声响，接着是脚步声，以及一阵奇怪的滑行声，沿着列车走廊由远及近。赫敏放下《霍格沃茨：一段校史》，站起身，把头探出隔间外——万一有人需要帮忙呢——她看见一个穿着巫师礼袍的小男孩，看个头大概是一年级或二年级，头上缠着一条围巾，样子颇为滑稽。他脚边的地板上立着一只小皮箱。就在她看见他的同时，他敲响了另一个紧闭隔间的门，用只是被围巾微微闷住的声音说：「对不起，我能问你个问题吗？」
She didn't hear the answer from inside the compartment, but after the boy opened the door, she did think she heard him say - unless she'd somehow misheard - "Does anyone here know the six quarks or where I can find a first-year girl named Hermione Granger?"
她没听见隔间里的回答，但当那个男孩推开门之后，她确实像是听见他说——除非她刚才听岔了——「这屋里有没有人知道六个夸克，或者该去哪里找一个叫赫敏·格兰杰的一年级女生？」
After the boy had closed that compartment door, Hermione said, "Can I help you with something?"
等那个男孩关上了那扇隔间的门，赫敏开口说：「我能帮你什么忙吗？」
The scarfed face turned to look at her, and the voice said, "Not unless you can name the six quarks or tell me where to find Hermione Granger."
那张裹着围巾的脸转过来看着她，那声音说：「除非你能说出六个夸克的名字，或者告诉我赫敏·格兰杰在哪里。」
"Up, down, strange, charm, truth, beauty, and why are you looking for her?"
「上、下、奇、粲、真、美——你找她干嘛？」
It was hard to tell from this distance, but she thought she saw the boy grin widely under his scarf. "Ah, so you're a first-year girl named Hermione Granger," said that young, muffled voice. "On the train to Hogwarts, no less." The boy started to walk towards her and her compartment, and his trunk slithered along after him. "Technically, all I needed to do was look for you, but it seems likely that I'm meant to talk to you or invite you to join my party or get a key magical item from you or find out that Hogwarts was built over the ruins of an ancient temple or something. PC or NPC, that is the question?"
隔着这么一段距离其实很难分辨，可她觉得她看见那个男孩在围巾底下咧开嘴笑。『啊，原来你就是那个叫赫敏·格兰杰的一年级女生，』那片年轻的、被闷住的声音说道，『而且还是在开往霍格沃茨的火车上。』男孩迈步朝她、朝她的隔间走来，他的箱子在身后一路滑行。『严格来说，我只需要找到你就够了，不过看样子我多半是要跟你说话，或者邀你入队，或者从你那儿拿到什么关键魔法物品，又或者发现霍格沃茨是建在一座古老神庙的废墟之上，诸如此类。你是玩家，还是 NPC，这可是个问题？』
Hermione opened her mouth to reply to this, but then she couldn't think of any possible reply to... whatever it was she'd just heard, even as the boy walked over to her, looked inside the compartment, nodded with satisfaction, and sat down on the bench across from her own. His trunk scurried in after him, grew to three times its former diameter and snuggled up next to her own in an oddly disturbing fashion.
赫敏张嘴想要回应，可她一时想不出任何「可能」的回应来对付……她刚才听到的那个「玩意儿」，这时那男孩已经走到她面前，往隔间里看了看，满意地点点头，在她对面那张长椅上坐了下来。他的箱子紧随其后溜了进来，直径变成原来的三倍，以一种说不出的别扭劲紧挨着她的箱子趴伏下来。
"Please, have a seat," said the boy, "and do please close the door behind you, if you would. Don't worry, I don't bite anyone who doesn't bite me first." He was already unwinding the scarf from around his head.
「请坐，」男孩说，「还请顺手把门带上，如果方便的话。别担心，我不咬人，除非别人先咬我。」他已经在从头上往下解那条围巾了。
The imputation that this boy thought she was scared of him made her hand send the door sliding shut, jamming it into the wall with unnecessary force. She spun around and saw a young face with bright, laughing green eyes, and an angry red-dark scar set into his forehead that reminded her of something in the back of her mind but right now she had more important things to think about. "I didn't say I was Hermione Granger!"
这个男孩竟暗示她「怕」他，这念头让她的手一带，把隔间门滑过去合上，狠狠撞进墙里，用了不必要的力气。她猛地转身，看见一张年轻的脸，一双明亮含笑的眼睛，前额上嵌着一道暗红色的狰狞伤疤——那让她脑子的某个角落想起点什么，可眼下她有更要紧的事要想。「我可没说我是赫敏·格兰杰！」
"I didn't say you said you were Hermione Granger, I just said you were Hermione Granger. If you're asking how I know, it's because I know everything. Good evening ladies and gentlemen, my name is Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres or Harry Potter for short, I know that probably doesn't mean anything to you for a change -"
「我可没说你「说」了你是赫敏·格兰杰，我只是说你就是赫敏·格兰杰。你要问我怎么知道的，那是因为我无所不知。各位先生女士，晚上好，我叫哈利·詹姆斯·波特-伊万斯-维雷斯，简称哈利·波特，我知道这次对你来说多半终于不算回事了——」
Hermione's mind finally made the connection. The scar on his forehead, the shape of a lightning bolt. "Harry Potter! You're in Modern Magical History and The Rise and Fall of the Dark Arts and Great Wizarding Events of the Twentieth Century." It was actually the very first time in her whole life that she'd met someone from inside a book, and it was a rather odd feeling.
赫敏的脑子终于连上了这一环。他前额的那道疤，一道闪电的形状。「哈利·波特！《现代巫师史》《黑魔法的兴衰》《二十世纪的重大巫师界事件》里都有你。」这其实是她这辈子头一回「遇见」从书里走出来的人，那感觉相当奇怪。
The boy blinked three times. "I'm in books? Wait, of course I'm in books... what a strange thought."
那个男孩眨了三下眼睛。「我上了书？等等，我当然会上书……这念头真怪。」
"Goodness, didn't you know?" said Hermione. "I'd have found out everything I could if it was me."
「天哪，你不知道吗？」赫敏说，「要是换作我，我一定会把能查到的一切都查个明白。」
The boy spoke rather dryly. "Miss Granger, it has been less than 72 hours since I went to Diagon Alley and discovered my claim to fame. I have spent the last two days buying science books. Believe me, I intend to find out everything I can." The boy hesitated. "What do the books say about me?"
男孩的语气颇为冷淡。「格兰杰小姐，从我进对角巷、得知自己出名的来由算起，到现在还不到七十二小时。这两天我一直忙着买科学书。请你相信我，我打算把能查到的一切都查清楚。」男孩顿了顿。「那些书到底是怎么说我的？」
Hermione Granger's mind flashed back, she hadn't realised she would be tested on those books so she'd read them only once, but it was just a month ago so the material was still fresh in her mind. "You're the only one who's survived the Killing Curse so you're called the Boy-Who-Lived. You were born to James Potter and Lily Potter formerly Lily Evans on the 31st of July 1980. On the 31st of October 1981 the Dark Lord He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named though I don't know why not attacked your home. You were found alive with the scar on your forehead in the ruins of your parents' house near the burnt remains of You-Know-Who's body. Chief Warlock Albus Percival Wulfric Brian Dumbledore sent you off somewhere, no one knows where. The Rise and Fall of the Dark Arts claims that you survived because of your mother's love and that your scar contains all of the Dark Lord's magical power and that the centaurs fear you, but Great Wizarding Events of the Twentieth Century doesn't mention anything like that and Modern Magical History warns that there are lots of crackpot theories about you."
赫敏·格兰杰的思绪一下子闪回，她没想到自己会被考到「那些」书，所以只读了一遍，还好那不过是一个月前的事，内容在她脑子里还算新鲜。「你是唯一一个从死咒下活过来的人，所以大家都叫你『大难不死的男孩』。你的父母是詹姆斯·波特和莉莉·波特——她娘家姓莉莉·伊万斯——你生于 1980 年 7 月 31 日。1981 年 10 月 31 日，黑魔头『那个不能说名字的人』袭击了你们的家，我不明白为什么不能说他的名字。他们是循着你们父母房子废墟里『神秘人』烧焦的尸首，才在前额有疤的你身上发现你还活着的。首席巫师阿不思·珀西瓦尔·伍尔弗里克·布赖恩·邓布利多把你送到别处去了，没人知道是哪儿。《黑魔法的兴衰》说你是靠母亲的爱才活下来的，说你伤疤里装着黑魔头全部的魔力，还说马人都怕你；可《二十世纪的重大巫师界事件》对这些只字未提，《现代巫师史》则警告说，关于你的胡说八道一大堆。」
The boy's mouth was hanging open. "Were you told to wait for Harry Potter on the train to Hogwarts, or something like that?"
那男孩张大了嘴。「是不是有人叫你在开往霍格沃茨的火车上等哈利·波特，或者诸如此类？」
"No," Hermione said. "Who told you about me?"
「没有，」赫敏说，「是谁告诉你我的事的？」
"Professor McGonagall and I believe I see why. Do you have an eidetic memory, Hermione?"
「是麦格教授，我想我明白她为什么这么做了。赫敏，你有照相式记忆吗？」
Hermione shook her head. "It's not photographic, I've always wished it was but I had to read my school books five times over to memorize them all."
赫敏摇了摇头。「不是照相式的，我一直希望是，可我背书都得把课本读上五遍才背得下来。」
"Really," the boy said in a slightly strangled voice. "I hope you don't mind if I test that - it's not that I don't believe you, but as the saying goes, 'Trust, but verify'. No point in wondering when I can just do the experiment."
「是吗，」男孩用一种略微发紧的声音说，「希望你不介意我验证一下——我不是不信你，可俗话说得好，『信任，但要核实』。既然我直接做个实验就能弄清楚，就没必要瞎猜。」
Hermione smiled, rather smugly. She so loved tests. "Go ahead."
赫敏相当得意地笑了笑。她最爱考试了。「来吧。」
The boy stuck a hand into a pouch at his side and said "Magical Drafts and Potions by Arsenius Jigger". When he withdrew his hand it was holding the book he'd named.
男孩把手伸进腰侧的一个小袋子里，说道：「《魔法药剂与药水》，阿森尼·吉格著。」等他把手抽出来，手里正握着他说出的那本书。
Instantly Hermione wanted one of those pouches more than she'd ever wanted anything.
一瞬间，赫敏对那种袋子的渴望，胜过她这辈子对任何东西的渴求。
The boy opened the book to somewhere in the middle and looked down. "If you were making oil of sharpness -"
男孩把书翻到中间某处，低头看着。「如果你正在熬制「敏捷油」——」
"I can see that page from here, you know!"
「我从这儿就能看见那一页，你知道吗！」
The boy tilted the book so that she couldn't see it any more, and flipped the pages again. "If you were brewing a potion of spider climbing, what would be the next ingredient you added after the Acromantula silk?"
男孩把书偏到一边，让她再也看不到了，又翻了几页。「如果你在熬制「蜘蛛攀爬药水」，在加入八眼巨蛛的蛛丝之后，下一味要加的是什么？」
"After dropping in the silk, wait until the potion has turned exactly the shade of the cloudless dawn sky, 8 degrees from the horizon and 8 minutes before the tip of the sun first becomes visible. Stir eight times widdershins and once deasil, and then add eight drams of unicorn bogies."
「把蛛丝投进去之后，要等到药水恰好变成万里无云的黎明天空那种颜色——地平线上八度，太阳尖端初露前八分钟。逆时针搅八下，顺时针搅一下，然后再加八打兰独角兽的鼻屎。」
The boy shut the book with a sharp snap and put the book back into his pouch, which swallowed it with a small burping noise. "Well well well well well well. I should like to make you a proposition, Miss Granger."
男孩啪的一声合上书，把书放回袋子里，袋子打了个小嗝，把书吞了下去。「好好好好好好。我想向格兰杰小姐提个建议。」
"A proposition?" Hermione said suspiciously. Girls weren't supposed to listen to those.
「一个建议？」赫敏狐疑地问。女孩们是不该听那种话的。
It was also at this point that Hermione realised the other thing - well, one of the things - which was odd about the boy. Apparently people who were in books actually sounded like a book when they talked. This was quite the surprising discovery.
也正是在这时，赫敏才意识到这个男孩的另一桩怪事——嗯，是诸多怪事中的一件。原来，活在书里的人，说起话来竟真的像一本书。这是个相当惊人的发现。
The boy reached into his pouch and said, "can of pop", retrieving a bright green cylinder. He held it out to her and said, "Can I offer you something to drink?"
男孩把手伸进袋子，说了声「一罐汽水」，掏出一个亮绿色的圆柱罐子。他把它递给她，说：「我能请你喝点东西吗？」
Hermione politely accepted the fizzy drink. In fact she was feeling sort of thirsty by now. "Thank you very much," Hermione said as she popped the top. "Was that your proposition?"
赫敏客气地接过了那罐汽水。说实话，她这会儿还真有点渴了。「多谢，」赫敏说着砰地拉开罐口，「这就是你的建议？」
The boy coughed. "No," he said. Just as Hermione started to drink, he said, "I'd like you to help me take over the universe."
男孩咳了一声。「不是，」他说。就在赫敏正要喝的时候，他说：「我想请你帮我统治整个宇宙。」
Hermione finished her drink and lowered the can. "No thank you, I'm not evil."
赫敏喝完饮料，放下罐子。「不了，谢谢，我不是坏人。」
The boy looked at her in surprise, as though he'd been expecting some other answer. "Well, I was speaking a bit rhetorically," he said. "In the sense of the Baconian project, you know, not political power. 'The effecting of all things possible' and so on. I want to conduct experimental studies of spells, figure out the underlying laws, bring magic into the domain of science, merge the wizarding and Muggle worlds, raise the entire planet's standard of living, move humanity centuries ahead, discover the secret of immortality, colonize the Solar System, explore the galaxy, and most importantly, figure out what the heck is really going on here because all of this is blatantly impossible."
男孩惊讶地看着她，仿佛他原本期待的是别的回答。「呃，我刚才说得有点修辞化了，」他说，「我是说培根计划那种意思，你懂的，不是政治权力。『把一切可能之事变为现实』这类东西。我想对咒语做实验研究，找出底层的规律，把魔法纳入科学的领域，把巫师界和麻瓜世界合而为一，抬升整个地球的生活水准，让人类提前飞跃几个世纪，发现永生的秘密，殖民太阳系，探索银河系，而最重要的是——弄清楚这里到底发生了什么，因为这一切都明摆着不可能。」
That sounded a bit more interesting. "And?"
这下听起来有点意思了。「然后呢？」
The boy stared at her incredulously. "And? That's not enough?"
男孩难以置信地瞪着她。「然后？这还不够？」
"And what do you want from me?" said Hermione.
「那你想要我做什么？」赫敏说。
"I want you to help me do the research, of course. With your encyclopedic memory added to my intelligence and rationality, we'll have the Baconian project finished in no time, where by 'no time' I mean probably at least thirty-five years."
「当然是请你帮我做研究。有你百科全书式的记忆，再加上我的智慧和理性，培根计划转眼就能完成——我说的「转眼」，意思大概是至少三十五年。」
Hermione was beginning to find this boy annoying. "I haven't seen you do anything intelligent. Maybe I'll let you help me with my research."
赫敏开始觉得这个男孩烦人了。「我可没见你做过什么聪明事。也许该让你来帮我做研究才对。」
There was a certain silence in the compartment.
隔间里出现了片刻的寂静。
"So you're asking me to demonstrate my intelligence, then," said the boy after a long pause.
「这么说，你是要我证明我的聪明才智了，」良久之后男孩说道。
Hermione nodded.
赫敏点了点头。
"I warn you that challenging my ingenuity is a dangerous project, and tends to make your life a lot more surreal."
「我警告你，质疑我的才智是一项危险的工程，往往会让你的生活变得超现实得多。」
"I'm not impressed yet," Hermione said. Unnoticed, the green drink once again rose to her lips.
「我还没被打动，」赫敏说。不知不觉间，那罐绿色饮料又一次举到了她唇边。
"Well, maybe this will impress you," the boy said. He leaned forward and looked at her intensely. "I've already done a bit of experimenting and I found out that I don't need the wand, I can make anything I want happen just by snapping my fingers."
「那好，也许这个能打动你，」男孩说。他向前倾身，专注地盯着她。「我已经做过一点实验了，我发现我不需要魔杖，只要打个响指，就能让任何我想发生的事发生。」
It came just as Hermione was in the middle of swallowing, and she choked and coughed and expelled the bright green fluid.
这话正赶上赫敏咽下一口饮料的时候，她被呛住，猛地咳嗽起来，把那亮绿色的液体喷了出来。
Onto her brand new, never-worn witch's robes, on the very first day of school.
喷在她崭新的、从未上过身的巫师袍上——就在这开学第一天。
Hermione actually screamed. It was a high-pitched sound that sounded like an air raid siren in the closed compartment. "Eek! My clothes!"
赫敏真的尖叫了。那声音尖得，在紧闭的隔间里听着像防空警报。「呀！我的衣服！」
"Don't panic!" said the boy. "I can fix it for you. Just watch!" He raised a hand and snapped his fingers.
「别慌！」男孩说，「我能帮你弄好。瞧好了！」他抬起一只手，打了个响指。
"You'll -" Then she looked down at herself.
「你会——」然后她低头看了看自己。
The green fluid was still there, but even as she watched, it started to vanish and fade and within just a few moments, it was like she'd never spilled anything at herself.
那绿色液体还在，可就在她眼睁睁看着的当口，它开始消失、褪淡，片刻之间，就像她压根没往自己身上洒过东西一样。
Hermione stared at the boy, who was wearing a rather smug sort of smile.
赫敏盯着那个男孩，他脸上挂着一副颇为得意的笑容。
Wordless wandless magic! At his age? When he'd only gotten the schoolbooks three days ago?
无声无杖的魔法！在他这个年纪？他拿到课本才三天啊？
Then she remembered what she'd read, and she gasped and flinched back from him. All the Dark Lord's magical power! In his scar!
然后她想起了她读过的那些东西，倒吸一口气，猛地从他身边缩开。『黑魔头全部的魔力！就在他的伤疤里！』
She rose hastily to her feet. "I, I, I need to go the toilet, wait here all right -" she had to find a grownup she had to tell them -
她慌忙站起身。「我、我、我得去趟洗手间，你在这儿等着，行吗——」她必须找到一个大人，她必须告诉他们——
The boy's smile faded. "It was just a trick, Hermione. I'm sorry, I didn't mean to scare you."
男孩的笑容淡了下去。「这只是个把戏，赫敏。对不起，我没想吓到你。」
Her hand halted on the door handle. "A trick?"
她的手停在门把手上。「一个『把戏』？」
"Yes," said the boy. "You asked me to demonstrate my intelligence. So I did something apparently impossible, which is always a good way to show off. I can't really do anything just by snapping my fingers." The boy paused. "At least I don't think I can, I've never actually tested it experimentally." The boy raised his hand and snapped his fingers again. "Nope, no banana."
「是的，」男孩说，「是你让我证明聪明才智的，所以我做了件看似不可能的事，这向来是显摆的好办法。我并不能真的只靠打个响指就让事情发生。」男孩顿了一下。「至少我不『认为』我能，我其实从没实验验证过。」男孩又抬起手，打了个响指。「没有，变不出香蕉。」
Hermione was as confused as she'd ever been in her life.
赫敏这辈子从没这么困惑过。
The boy was now smiling again at the look on her face. "I did warn you that challenging my ingenuity tends to make your life surreal. Do remember this the next time I warn you about something."
看到她的表情，男孩又笑了。「我确实『警告』过你，质疑我的才智会让你的生活变得超现实。下次我再警告你什么的时候，你可要记住。」
"But, but," Hermione stammered. "What did you do, then?"
「可、可是，」赫敏结结巴巴地说，「那你到底『做』了什么？」
The boy's gaze took on a measuring, weighing quality that she'd never seen before from someone her own age. "You think you have what it takes to be a scientist in your own right, with or without my help? Then let's see how you investigate a confusing phenomenon."
男孩的目光带上了一种称量、权衡的意味，那是她从同龄人脸上从没见过的。「你以为自己有资格做个科学家，无论有没有我的帮助？那好，就让我们看看你自己怎么去调查一个令人困惑的现象。」
"I..." Hermione's mind went blank for a moment. She loved tests but she'd never had a test like this before. Frantically, she tried to cast back for anything she'd read about what scientists were supposed to do. Her mind skipped gears, ground against itself, and spat back the instructions for doing a science investigation project:
「我……」赫敏的脑子空白了一瞬。她爱考试，可她从没经历过这样的考试。她慌乱地拼命回想，自己读过的书里有没有写过科学家该怎么做。她的脑子卡了档，齿轮互相咬合、摩擦，最后吐出了做科学调查项目的指导步骤：
Step 1: Form a hypothesis.
Step 2: Do an experiment to test your hypothesis.
Step 3: Measure the results.
Step 4: Make a cardboard poster.
『第一步：提出一个假设。
第二步：做一个实验来检验你的假设。
第三步：测量结果。
第四步：做一张纸板海报。』
Step 1 was to form a hypothesis. That meant, try to think of something that could have happened just now. "All right. My hypothesis is that you cast a Charm on my robes to make anything spilled on it vanish."
第一步是提出一个假设。也就是说，得想想刚才到底『可能』发生了什么事。「好吧。我的假设是：你在我的袍子上施了个咒，让洒上去的东西都消失。」
"All right," said the boy, "is that your answer?"
「好，」男孩说，「这就是你的答案了？」
The shock was wearing off, and Hermione's mind was starting to work properly. "Wait, that can't be right. I didn't see you touch your wand or say any spells so how could you have cast a Charm?"
震惊正在消退，赫敏的脑子开始正常运转。「等等，那不对。我没看到你碰魔杖，也没听到你念咒，你怎么可能施了咒？」
The boy waited, his face neutral.
男孩等着，脸上毫无表情。
"But suppose all the robes come from the store with a Charm already on them to keep them clean, which would be a useful sort of Charm for them to have. You found that out by spilling something on yourself earlier."
「可要是所有袍子出厂时就自带一个咒语，用来保持洁净呢？这对它们来说会是种有用的咒。你发现这一点，是因为你先前把什么东西洒在自己身上了。」
Now the boy's eyebrows lifted. "Is that your answer?"
这时男孩挑了挑眉。「这就是你的答案了？」
"No, I haven't done Step 2, 'Do an experiment to test your hypothesis.'"
「不，我还没做第二步，也就是『做一个实验来检验你的假设』。」
The boy closed his mouth again, and began to smile.
男孩又闭上嘴，开始微笑。
Hermione looked at the drinks can, which she'd automatically put into the cupholder at the window. She took it up and peered inside, and found that it was around one-third full.
赫敏看向那罐饮料——她顺手把它放在了窗边的杯架上。她拿起来，往里面瞅了瞅，发现还剩大约三分之一。
"Well," said Hermione, "the experiment I want to do is to pour it on my robes and see what happens, and my prediction is that the stain will disappear. Only if it doesn't work, my robes will be stained, and I don't want that."
「嗯，」赫敏说，「我想做的实验是把它倒在我袍子上，看看会发生什么，我的预测是污渍会消失。可万一它『不』消失，我的袍子就会弄脏，而我可不想那样。」
"Do it to mine," said the boy, "that way you don't have to worry about your robes getting stained."
「倒在我身上，」男孩说，「这样你就不用担心袍子被弄脏了。」
"But -" Hermione said. There was something wrong with that thinking but she didn't know how to say it exactly.
「可是——」赫敏说。这个想法里有什么『不对』的地方，她却说不出到底是哪儿不对。
"I have spare robes in my trunk," said the boy.
「我箱子里有备用的袍子，」男孩说。
"But there's nowhere for you to change," Hermione objected. Then she thought better of it. "Though I suppose I could leave and close the door -"
「可你没有地方换衣服呀，」赫敏反驳道。随即她又改了口。「不过我想我可以出去，把门关上——」
"I have somewhere to change in my trunk, too."
「我箱子里也有换衣服的地方。」
Hermione looked at his trunk, which, she was beginning to suspect, was rather more special than her own.
赫敏看了看他的箱子，她开始怀疑，那只箱子远比她自己的特别。
"All right," Hermione said, "since you say so," and she rather gingerly poured a bit of green pop onto a corner of the boy's robes. Then she stared at it, trying to remember how long the original fluid had taken to disappear...
「好吧，」赫敏说，「既然你这么说，」她颇为小心地把一点绿色汽水倒在男孩袍子的一个角上。然后她盯着它，努力回想之前那些液体花了多久才消失……
And the green stain vanished!
接着，绿色污渍消失了！
Hermione let out a sigh of relief, not least because this meant she wasn't dealing with all of the Dark Lord's magical power.
赫敏长舒一口气，部分原因是这至少说明，她面对的并不是黑魔头的全部魔力。
Well, Step 3 was measuring the results, but in this case that was just seeing that the stain had vanished. And she supposed she could probably skip Step 4, about the cardboard poster. "My answer is that the robes are Charmed to keep themselves clean."
好，第三步是测量结果，可在这种事里，那不过是看见污渍消失了而已。她想她大概可以跳过第四步——那张纸板海报。「我的答案是，这些袍子被施了咒，能自我保持洁净。」
"Not quite," said the boy.
「不完全对，」男孩说。
Hermione felt a stab of disappointment. She really wished she wouldn't have felt that way, the boy wasn't a teacher, but it was still a test and she'd gotten a question wrong and that always felt like a little punch in the stomach.
赫敏感到一阵失望。她真心希望自己『不会』有这种感觉——这男孩又不是老师——可这毕竟还是场考试，她答错了一道题，而那总像往胃里挨了一记小拳头。
(It said almost everything you needed to know about Hermione Granger that she had never let that stop her, or even let it interfere with her love of being tested.)
（关于赫敏·格兰杰，这一点几乎就说尽了你需要知道的一切：她从没让这种事拦住过自己，甚至从没让它妨碍她对被测验的热爱。）
"The sad thing is," said the boy, "you probably did everything the book told you to do. You made a prediction that would distinguish between the robe being charmed and not charmed, and you tested it, and rejected the null hypothesis that the robe was not charmed. But unless you read the very, very best sort of books, they won't quite teach you how to do science properly. Well enough to really get the right answer, I mean, and not just churn out another publication like Dad always complains about. So let me try to explain - without giving away the answer - what you did wrong this time, and I'll give you another chance."
「可悲的是，」男孩说，「你大概把书上告诉你的全都照做了。你作出了一个能区分『袍子被施了咒』和『袍子没被施咒』的预测，你验证了它，并且拒绝了『袍子没被施咒』的零假设。可除非你读的是那种最好最好的书，否则它们不会真正教你『正确地』做科学。我是说，好到能让你『真正』得到正确答案的程度，而不是像我爸老抱怨的那样，只是又炮制出另一篇论文。所以让我试着说明——不给你答案——你这次错在哪儿，然后我再给你一次机会。」
She was starting to resent the boy's oh-so-superior tone when he was just another eleven-year-old like her, but that was secondary to finding out what she'd done wrong. "All right."
她开始嫌恶男孩那种高高在上的腔调——他不也是跟她一样十一岁的小孩嘛——可比起弄清楚自己错在哪儿，这到底还是次要的。「好吧。」
The boy's expression grew more intense. "This is a game based on a famous experiment called the 2-4-6 task, and this is how it works. I have a rule - known to me, but not to you - which fits some triplets of three numbers, but not others. 2-4-6 is one example of a triplet which fits the rule. In fact... let me write down the rule, just so you know it's a fixed rule, and fold it up and give it to you. Please don't look, since I infer from earlier that you can read upside-down."
男孩的表情变得更加专注。「这个游戏基于一个著名的实验，叫作『2-4-6 任务』，玩法是这样的。我有一条『规则』——我知道，你不知道——它符合某些三数组合，不符合另一些。2-4-6 就是符合这条规则的一个例子。其实……让我把规则写下来，好让你知道这是一条固定的规则，然后叠起来交给你。请别偷看，因为我从刚才推断出你能倒着看书。」
The boy said "paper" and "mechanical pencil" to his pouch, and she shut her eyes tightly while he wrote.
男孩对他的袋子说了声「纸」和「活动铅笔」，她紧紧闭上眼睛，让他写。
"There," said the boy, and he was holding a tightly folded piece of paper. "Put this in your pocket," and she did.
「好了，」男孩说，他手里拿着叠得紧紧的一张纸。「把这个放进口袋。」她照做了。
"Now the way this game works," said the boy, "is that you give me a triplet of three numbers, and I'll tell you 'Yes' if the three numbers are an instance of the rule, and 'No' if they're not. I am Nature, the rule is one of my laws, and you are investigating me. You already know that 2-4-6 gets a 'Yes'. When you've performed all the further experimental tests you want - asked me as many triplets as you feel necessary - you stop and guess the rule, and then you can unfold the sheet of paper and see how you did. Do you understand the game?"
「这个游戏这么玩，」男孩说，「你给我一组三个数字，我就告诉你『对』还是『错』——要是这三个数符合规则，我就说『对』，不符合就说『错』。我是大自然，规则是我的一条定律，而你是在调查我。你已经知道 2-4-6 得到『对』。等你做完所有你想做的进一步实验——问我足够数量的数字组——你就停下来猜规则，然后可以摊开那张纸，看看自己猜得怎么样。懂这游戏了吗？」
"Of course I do," said Hermione.
「我当然懂，」赫敏说。
"Go."
「开始。」
"4-6-8" said Hermione.
「4-6-8，」赫敏说。
"Yes," said the boy.
「对。」
"10-12-14", said Hermione.
「10-12-14，」赫敏说。
"Yes," said the boy.
「对。」
Hermione tried to cast her mind a little further afield, since it seemed like she'd already done all the testing she needed, and yet it couldn't be that easy, could it?
赫敏试着把思绪稍稍放远一点，因为看起来她已经做完了该做的测试，可这又怎么会这么简单？她不信。
"1-3-5."
「1-3-5。」
"Yes."
「对。」
"Minus 3, minus 1, plus 1."
「负 3、负 1、正 1。」
"Yes."
「对。」
Hermione couldn't think of anything else to do. "The rule is that the numbers have to increase by two each time."
赫敏想不出别的了。「规则是，数字每次都得增加二。」
"Now suppose I tell you," said the boy, "that this test is harder than it looks, and that only 20% of grownups get it right."
「要是我现在告诉你，」男孩说，「这个测试比看上去难得多，只有 20%的大人能答对呢？」
Hermione frowned. What had she missed? Then, suddenly, she thought of a test she still needed to do.
赫敏皱起眉头。她漏掉了什么？接着，她忽然想起还有一个测试她没做。
"2-5-8!" she said triumphantly.
「2-5-8！」她得意地叫道。
"Yes."
「对。」
"10-20-30!"
「10-20-30！」
"Yes."
「对。」
"The real answer is that the numbers have to go up by the same amount each time. It doesn't have to be 2."
「真正的答案是，数字每次要增加『相同』的量。不一定非得是 2。」
"Very well," said the boy, "take the paper out and see how you did."
「很好，」男孩说，「把那张纸拿出来，看看你猜得怎么样。」
Hermione took the paper out of her pocket and unfolded it.
赫敏从口袋里掏出那张纸，展开。
Three real numbers in increasing order, lowest to highest.
三个实数，按升序排列，从最小到最大。
Hermione's jaw dropped. She had the distinct feeling of something terribly unfair having been done to her, that the boy was a dirty rotten cheating liar, but when she cast her mind back she couldn't think of any wrong responses that he'd given.
赫敏的下巴掉了下来。她分明感觉到自己受了天大的委屈，那男孩是个肮脏的骗子，可她仔细回想，又想不出他给过任何错误的回答。
"What you've just discovered is called 'positive bias'," said the boy. "You had a rule in your mind, and you kept on thinking of triplets that should make the rule say 'Yes'. But you didn't try to test any triplets that should make the rule say 'No'. In fact you didn't get a single 'No', so 'any three numbers' could have just as easily been the rule. It's sort of like how people imagine experiments that could confirm their hypotheses instead of trying to imagine experiments that could falsify them - that's not quite exactly the same mistake but it's close. You have to learn to look on the negative side of things, stare into the darkness. When this experiment is performed, only 20% of grownups get the answer right. And many of the others invent fantastically complicated hypotheses and put great confidence in their wrong answers since they've done so many experiments and everything came out like they expected."
「你刚刚发现的，叫作『正向偏差』，」男孩说。「你心里有一条规则，你就不停地想那些应该让规则说『对』的数字组合。可你从没试过测那些应该让规则说『错』的组合。事实上，你一次『错』都没得到，所以『随便三个数』也完全可以成为那条规则。这就像人们只去想象那些能证实自己假设的实验，而不去想象那些能证伪它们的实验——严格来说不完全一样，但很接近。你必须学着去审视事情的反面，凝视那片黑暗。做这个实验时，只有 20%的大人能答对。而其余那些人里，有许多会编出极其复杂的假设，还对自己的错误答案深信不疑，因为他们做了那么多实验，而一切都跟他们预期的一样。」
"Now," said the boy, "do you want to take another shot at the original problem?"
「那么，」男孩说，「你还要不要就原来那个问题再试一次？」
His eyes were quite intent now, as though this were the real test.
他现在的眼神相当专注，仿佛这才是真正的考试。
Hermione shut her eyes and tried to concentrate. She was sweating underneath her robes. She had an odd feeling that this was the hardest she'd ever been asked to think on a test or maybe even the first time she'd ever been asked to think on a test.
赫敏闭上眼，努力集中精神。她在袍子底下直冒汗。她有一种奇怪的感觉，这是她在考试中被要求去思考的最难的一次，甚至可能是她有生以来头一次被要求在考试中去思考。
What other experiment could she do? She had a Chocolate Frog, could she try to rub some of that on the robes and see if it vanished? But that still didn't seem like the kind of twisty negative thinking the boy was asking for. Like she was still asking for a 'Yes' if the Chocolate Frog stain disappeared, rather than asking for a 'No'.
她还能做什么别的实验？她有一块巧克力蛙，能不能试着拿它在袍子上擦一擦，看看它『是不是』也会消失？可这似乎还不是男孩要求的那种曲折迂回的逆向思维。就好像她仍是在盼着一个『对』——如果巧克力蛙的污渍消失的话——而不是去求一个『错』。
So... on her hypothesis... when should the pop... not vanish?
那么……按她的假设……汽水该在什么时候『不』消失？
"I have an experiment to do," Hermione said. "I want to pour some pop on the floor, and see if it doesn't vanish. Do you have some paper towels in your pouch, so I can mop up the spill if this doesn't work?"
「我有个实验要做，」赫敏说。「我想往地上倒一点汽水，看看它『不』消失。你袋子里有纸巾吗？万一这招不灵，我好把洒出来的擦掉。」
"I have napkins," said the boy. His face still looked neutral.
「我有餐巾纸，」男孩说。他的表情依旧毫无波澜。
Hermione took the can, and poured a small bit of pop onto the floor.
赫敏拿起罐子，往地上倒了一小点汽水。
A few seconds later, it vanished.
几秒之后，它消失了。
Then the realisation hit her and she felt like kicking herself. "Of course! You gave me that can! It's not the robe that's enchanted, it was the pop all along!"
然后她恍然大悟，恨不得一脚踹自己。「当然了！那罐东西是你给我的！被施了咒的根本不是袍子，是汽水！从头到尾都是汽水！」
The boy stood up and bowed to her solemnly. He was grinning widely now. "Then... may I help you with your research, Hermione Granger?"
男孩站起来，郑重地朝她鞠了一躬。他现在咧嘴大笑。「那么……我能协助你做研究吗，赫敏·格兰杰？」
"I, ah..." Hermione was still feeling the rush of euphoria, but she wasn't quite sure about how to answer that.
「我，呃……」赫敏仍沉浸在那股兴奋的余韵里，可她对『那个』该怎么回答，心里没底。
They were interrupted by a weak, tentative, faint, rather reluctant knocking at the door.
他们被一阵虚弱、试探、飘忽、相当『不情愿』的敲门声打断了。
The boy turned and looked out the window, and said, "I'm not wearing my scarf, so can you get that?"
男孩转身望向窗外，说：「我没戴围巾，所以你能去开下门吗？」
It was at this point that Hermione realised why the boy - no, the Boy-Who-Lived, Harry Potter - had been wearing the scarf over his head in the first place, and felt a little silly for not realising it earlier. It was actually sort of odd, since she would have thought Harry Potter would proudly display himself to the world; and the thought occurred to her that he might actually be shyer than he seemed.
正是这时，赫敏才明白那男孩——不，是大难不死的男孩哈利·波特——一开始为什么要用围巾缠着头，还为没早点想到而觉得自己有点蠢。这其实挺古怪的，因为在她看来，哈利·波特本该骄傲地把自己的样子展示给全世界；而她也隐约想到，他可能真的比看上去更害羞。
When Hermione pulled the door open, she was greeted by a trembling young boy who looked exactly like he knocked.
赫敏拉开门，门口站着一个瑟瑟发抖的小男孩，看起来正是敲门的那副模样。
"Excuse me," said the boy in a tiny voice, "I'm Neville Longbottom. I'm looking for my pet toad, I, I can't seem to find it anywhere on this carriage... have you seen my toad?"
「对不起，」那男孩用细小的声音说，「我叫纳威·隆巴顿。我在找我的宠物蟾蜍，我、我好像在这节车厢哪儿都找不到它……你见过我的蟾蜍吗？」
"No," Hermione said, and then her helpfulness kicked in full throttle. "Have you checked all the other compartments?"
「没有，」赫敏说，随即她的热心劲儿立刻全开。「你检查过其他隔间了吗？」
"Yes," whispered the boy.
「检查过了，」男孩低声说。
"Then we'll just have to check all the other carriages," Hermione said briskly. "I'll help you. My name is Hermione Granger, by the way."
「那我们只好把其他车厢都检查一遍，」赫敏干脆地说。「我来帮你。对了，我叫赫敏·格兰杰。」
The boy looked like he might faint with gratitude.
那男孩看起来感激得快要晕过去。
"Hold on," came the voice of the other boy - Harry Potter. "I'm not sure that's the best way to do it."
「等一下，」传来『另一个』男孩的声音——哈利·波特。「我不确定这是最好的办法。」
At this Neville looked like he might cry, and Hermione swung around, angered. If Harry Potter was the sort of person who'd abandon a little boy just because he didn't want to be interrupted... "What? Why not?"
一听这话，纳威看起来像是要哭，赫敏猛地转过身，满腔怒火。要是哈利·波特是那种因为不想被打搅就抛下一个小男孩的人……「什么？为什么『不』？」
"Well," said Harry Potter, "It's going to take a while to check the whole train by hand, and we might miss the toad anyway, and if we didn't find it by the time we're at Hogwarts, he'd be in trouble. So what would make a lot more sense is if he went directly to the front carriage, where the prefects are, and asked a prefect for help. That was the first thing I did when I was looking for you, Hermione, although they didn't actually know. But they might have spells or magic items that would make it a lot easier to find a toad. We're only first-years."
「嗯，」哈利·波特说，「一节一节用手查整列火车，得花不少时间，而且我们说不定还是会漏掉那只蟾蜍；要是到了霍格沃茨还没找到，他就要有麻烦了。所以更合理的做法是，他直接去最前面那节车厢——级长们都在那儿——请一位级长帮忙。我当初找你的时候，赫敏，第一件事就是去那儿，虽然他们其实并不知道。可他们或许有咒语或魔法道具，能让找一只蟾蜍容易得多。我们才是一年级生。」
That... did make a lot of sense.
这……『确实』相当有道理。
"Do you think you can make it to the prefects' carriage on your own?" asked Harry Potter. "I've sort of got reasons for not wanting to show my face too much."
「你觉得自己能一个人找到级长那节车厢吗？」哈利·波特问。「我有点原因，不太想露脸。」
Suddenly Neville gasped and took a step back. "I remember that voice! You're one of the Lords of Chaos! You're the one who gave me chocolate!"
纳威忽然倒吸一口气，后退一步。「我记得那声音！你是混沌领主之一！『就是你给了我巧克力！』」
What? What what what?
什么？什么什么『什么』？
Harry Potter turned his head from the window and rose dramatically. "I never!" he said, voice full of indignation. "Do I look like the sort of villain who would give sweets to a child?"
哈利·波特把视线从窗外收回来，戏剧性地站起身。「我才没有！」他满腹义愤地说。「我看起来像是会给小孩子糖果的那种坏人吗？」
Neville's eyes widened. "You're Harry Potter? The Harry Potter? You?"
纳威瞪大了眼睛。「『你就是』哈利·波特？『那个』哈利·波特？『你』？」
"No, just a Harry Potter, there are three of me on this train -"
「不，只是『一个』哈利·波特，这趟车上有三个我呢——」
Neville gave a small shriek and ran away. There was a brief pattering of frantic footsteps and then the sound of a carriage door opening and closing.
纳威发出一声短促的尖叫，跑掉了。一阵急促慌乱的脚步声，接着是车厢门开合的声音。
Hermione sat down hard on her bench. Harry Potter closed the door and then sat down next to her.
赫敏重重地坐回她的长椅上。哈利·波特关上门，在她旁边坐了下来。
"Can you please explain to me what's going on?" Hermione said in a weak voice. She wondered if hanging around Harry Potter meant always being this confused.
「你能跟我解释一下到底发生了什么吗？」赫敏声音虚弱地问。她不禁疑惑，跟哈利·波特待在一起，是不是就意味着永远这么糊涂下去。
"Oh, well, what happened was that Fred and George and I saw this poor small boy at the train station - the woman next to him had gone away for a bit, and he was looking really frightened, like he was sure he was about to be attacked by Death Eaters or something. Now, there's a saying that the fear is often worse than the thing itself, so it occurred to me that this was a lad who could actually benefit from seeing his worst nightmare come true and that it wasn't so bad as he feared -"
「哦，是这样，弗雷德、乔治和我当时在火车站看见这个又小又可怜的孩子——他身边的那个女人走开了一会儿，他看起来害怕极了，像是认定自己马上要被食死徒之类的人袭击。有这么一句老话：恐惧往往比事情本身更折磨人。所以我想，这倒是个孩子，或许真能从中得到点好处——亲眼看着自己最可怕的噩梦成真，然后发现它并没有他怕的那么糟——」
Hermione sat there with her mouth wide open.
赫敏坐在那儿，嘴巴张得大大的。
"- and Fred and George came up with this spell to make the scarves over our faces darken and blur, like we were undead kings and those were our grave shrouds -"
「——然后弗雷德和乔治想出一个咒语，让我们脸上的围巾变暗、变模糊，就像我们是复活的亡灵国王，那些围巾就是我们的裹尸布——」
She didn't like at all where this was going.
她一点都不喜欢事情朝这个方向发展。
"- and after we were done giving him all the sweets I'd bought, we were like, 'Let's give him some money! Ha ha ha! Have some Knuts, boy! Have a silver Sickle!' and dancing around him and laughing evilly and so on. I think there were some people in the crowd who wanted to interfere at first, but bystander apathy held them off at least until they saw what we were doing, and then I think they were all too confused to do anything. Finally he said in this tiny little whisper 'go away' so the three of us all screamed and ran off, shrieking something about the light burning us. Hopefully he won't be as scared of being bullied in the future. That's called desensitisation therapy, by the way."
「——等我们把那些我买的糖都送完之后，我们又嚷着说，『给他点钱！哈哈哈哈哈！小子，拿几个纳特去！拿个银西可！』还围着他跳来跳去，阴森森地笑。我想人群里一开始有人想出手干预，可旁观者的冷漠先把他们拦住了，至少拦到他们看清我们在干什么；之后我想他们都太困惑，什么也做不了。最后他用那细细小小的气声说了句『走开』，于是我们三个全都尖叫着跑开了，边跑边嚷着什么『光照得我们睁不开眼』。希望他以后被欺负时不会那么怕了。顺便说一句，这就叫脱敏疗法。」
Okay, she hadn't guessed right about where this was going.
好吧，『这方面』她确实没猜对。
The burning fire of indignation that was one of Hermione's primary engines sputtered into life, even though part of her did sort of see what they'd been trying to do. "That's awful! You're awful! That poor boy! What you did was mean!"
那股燃烧的义愤——赫敏最主要的动力之一——咝的一声蹿了起来，尽管她有那么一点『确实』隐约明白他们想干什么。「太恶劣了！『你』太恶劣了！那个可怜的孩子！你做的事太『卑鄙』了！」
"I think the word you're looking for is enjoyable, and in any case you're asking the wrong question. The question is, did it do more good than harm, or more harm than good? If you have any arguments to contribute to that question I'm glad to hear them, but I won't entertain any other criticisms until that one is settled. I certainly agree that what I did looks all terrible and bullying and mean, since it involves a scared little boy and so on, but that's hardly the key issue now is it? That's called consequentialism, by the way, it means that whether an act is right or wrong isn't determined by whether it looks bad, or mean, or anything like that, the only question is how it will turn out in the end - what are the consequences."
「我觉得你找的那个词其实是『有趣』，而且无论如何你问错了问题。真正的问题是：它带来的好处多，还是坏处多？如果对『那个』问题你能提出任何论证，我很乐意听；可在那个问题敲定之前，我不会考虑任何其他批评。我当然同意，我做的事『看上去』很恶劣、很欺负人、很卑鄙，因为它牵涉一个吓坏了的小孩云云，可眼下这根本不是关键，不是吗？顺便说一句，这就叫结果主义，意思是：一件事对还是错，不由它『看上去』坏不坏、卑不卑鄙之类的来决定，唯一的问题在于它最终会怎样——也就是它的后果。」
Hermione opened her mouth to say something utterly searing but unfortunately she seemed to have neglected the part where she thought of something to say before opening her mouth. All she could come up with was, "What if he has nightmares?"
赫敏张开嘴，想说点极其『尖刻』的话，可惜她似乎漏掉了在张嘴之前先想好要说什么的那一环。她最后只挤出一句：「那他要是有『噩梦』怎么办？」
"Honestly, I don't think he needed our help to have nightmares, and if he has nightmares about this instead, then it'll be nightmares involving horrible monsters who give you chocolate and that was sort of the whole point."
「老实说，我不认为他需要我们的帮忙才会做噩梦；要是他反而做了关于『这个』的噩梦，那也是关于可怕的怪物拿巧克力给你吃的那种噩梦，而那恰恰就是『本来的目的』。」
Hermione's brain kept hiccoughing in confusion every time she tried to get properly angry. "Is your life always this peculiar?" she said at last.
赫敏每次想真正发火，脑子都被困惑搅得直打嗝。「你的生活总是这么古怪吗？」她终于开口。
Harry Potter's face gleamed with pride. "I make it that peculiar. You're looking at the product of a lot of hard work and elbow grease."
哈利·波特脸上熠熠发光，满是骄傲。「是我把它弄得这么古怪的。你眼前这位，可是费了大力气、下了苦功才打造出来的成果。」
"So..." Hermione said, and trailed off awkwardly.
「那……」赫敏说，然后尴尬地没了下文。
"So," Harry Potter said, "how much science do you know exactly? I can do calculus and I know some Bayesian probability theory and decision theory and a lot of cognitive science, and I've read The Feynman Lectures (or volume 1 anyway) and Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases and Language in Thought and Action and Influence: Science and Practice and Rational Choice in an Uncertain World and Godel, Escher, Bach and A Step Farther Out and -"
「那，」哈利·波特说，「你到底懂多少科学？我会微积分，懂一些贝叶斯概率论、决策论和不少认知科学，读过《费曼物理学讲义》（至少第一卷）、《不确定状况下的判断：启发式与偏差》、《语言、思维与行动》、《影响力：科学与实践》、《不确定世界中的理性选择》、《哥德尔、艾舍尔、巴赫》、《再向外一步》，还有——」
The ensuing quiz and counter-quiz went on for several minutes before being interrupted by another timid knock at the door. "Come in," she and Harry Potter said at almost the same time, and it slid back to reveal Neville Longbottom.
随后的问答与反问答持续了几分钟，才被又一阵怯怯的敲门声打断。「请进，」她和哈利·波特几乎同时说，门滑开，露出纳威·隆巴顿。
Neville was actually crying now. "I went to the front carriage and found a p-prefect but he t-told me that prefects weren't to be bothered over little things like m-missing toads."
纳威这回真的在哭了。「我去了前面那节车厢，找到一个级长，可他跟我说，级长不该为像丢了蟾蜍这样的小事被打扰。」
The Boy-Who-Lived's face changed. His lips set in a thin line. His voice, when he spoke, was cold and grim. "What were his colours? Green and silver?"
大难不死的男孩脸色变了。他的嘴唇抿成一条细线。他开口时，声音又冷又沉。「他戴的是什么颜色？绿色和银色？」
"N-no, his badge was r-red and gold."
「不、不是，他的徽章是红、红色和金色。」
"Red and gold!" burst out Hermione. "But those are Gryffindor's colours!"
「红色和金色！」赫敏脱口而出。「可那是格兰芬多的颜色啊！」
Harry Potter hissed at that, a frightening sort of sound that could have come from a live snake and made both her and Neville flinch. "I suppose," Harry Potter spat, "that finding some first-year's toad isn't heroic enough to be worthy of a Gryffindor prefect. Come on, Neville, I'll come with you this time, we'll see if the Boy-Who-Lived gets more attention. First we'll find a prefect who ought to know a spell, and if that doesn't work, we'll find a prefect who isn't afraid of getting their hands dirty, and if that doesn't work, I'll start recruiting my fans and if we have to we'll take apart the whole train screw by screw."
哈利·波特听到这儿，『嘶』了一声，那种可怕的声响简直像活蛇发出的，让她和纳威都猛地一缩。「我『猜』，」哈利·波特啐道，「找一个一年级孩子的蟾蜍还不够『英勇』，配不上格兰芬多的级长。走吧，纳威，『这』回我跟你一起去，让我们看看大难不死的男孩是不是更受重视。先找个应该会点咒语的级长，要是不行，就找个不怕弄脏手的级长；要是『那』也不行，我就去召集我的粉丝，实在不行，我们就把整列火车一个螺丝一个螺丝地拆了。」
The Boy-Who-Lived stood up and grabbed Neville's hand in his, and Hermione realised with a sudden brain hiccough that they were nearly the same size, even though some part of her had insisted that Harry Potter was a foot taller than that, and Neville at least six inches shorter.
大难不死的男孩站起身，一把抓住纳威的手，赫敏脑子里忽然打了个嗝，她意识到他们俩身高几乎一样——尽管她心里有股劲一直坚持说，哈利·波特比这高出整整一英尺，而纳威至少矮六英寸。
"Stay!" Harry Potter snapped at her - no, wait, at his trunk - and he closed the door behind him firmly as he left.
「待着！」哈利·波特冲她喝道——不，等等，是冲他的『箱子』——他离开时，把门严实地带上了。
She probably should have gone with them, but in just a brief moment Harry Potter had turned so scary that she was actually rather glad she hadn't thought to suggest it.
她本该跟他们一起去的，可就在那一瞬间，哈利·波特变得那么吓人，她反而庆幸自己没想起来提出这个建议。
Hermione's mind was now so jumbled that she didn't even think she could properly read "History: A Hogwarts". She felt as if she'd just been run over by a steamroller and turned into a pancake. She wasn't sure what she was thinking or what she was feeling or why. She just sat by the window and stared at the moving scenery.
赫敏的脑子这会儿乱成一团麻，她觉得自己连书都读不进去了——她竟把《霍格沃茨：一段校史》读成了《校史：一座霍格沃茨》。她感觉自己像刚被一台蒸汽压路机碾过，被压成了一张薄饼。她弄不清自己在想什么、在感受什么，也不知道为什么。她只是坐在窗边，望着窗外飞掠而过的景象。
Well, she did at least know why she was feeling a little sad inside.
嗯，至少她知道自己心里那股淡淡的难过是为什么。
Maybe Gryffindor wasn't as wonderful as she had thought.
也许格兰芬多并不像她想象的那样美好。
梗与典故
- Consequentialism：Harry 评价车站恶作剧时，把问题改成「最终带来的好处多，还是伤害多」。这里的 consequentialism 只承担一个最小含义：评价行为时看行为造成的后果。哲学文献还把它和更具体的古典功利主义区分开来，所以这段对话首先是在给 Hermione 介绍一个评价框架，并替 Harry 重新摆出问题。5
- Bystander apathy：Harry 回忆恶作剧时说，旁观者一开始没有介入，因为 bystander apathy 让他们暂时按兵不动。这个词可以连到社会心理学里的旁观者效应和责任分散：围观者越多，单个人感到自己必须出手的责任可能越弱。6 至于 Harry 顺口说出的「脱敏治疗」，读者应把它看作角色给自己行为起的戏剧化名字；本章没有提供它有效的效果证据。
Fuentes de referencia
- 1
- 2Chapter 8: Positive Bias
hpmor.com
- 3Francis Bacon – Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
plato.stanford.edu
- 4确认偏误（Confirmation bias） – FORRT
forrt.org
- 5Consequentialism – Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
plato.stanford.edu
- 6
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