2026-08-05｜实际收益率下行，WGC发布6月央行购金数据

{ "schema_version": 1, "as_of": "2026-08-05 08:15:00+08:00", "asset_universe": [ "AU", "AG", "COMEX_GC", "COMEX_SI", "GOLD_ETF" ], "events": [ { "event_id": "treasury_real_yield_curve_20260804", "event_type": "TREASURY_REAL_YIELD", "title": "美国财政部 8 月 4 日实际收益率全期限下降", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-04", "event_time_quality": "day_only", "asset_keys": [ "AU", "AG", "COMEX_GC", "COMEX_SI", "GOLD_ETF" ], "status": "new", "confidence": 100, "direction_score": { "AU": 1, "AG": 1, "COMEX_GC": 1, "COMEX_SI": 1, "GOLD_ETF": 1 }, "horizon": "days", "transmission_chain": "美国财政部 5Y 至 30Y 实际收益率较 8 月 3 日全部下降→持有无息资产的机会成本变量走低→对金银价格形成支撑", "invalidation_conditions": "若后续美国财政部实际收益率数据普遍回升并高于 2026-08-04 对应期限，或后续宏观数据使实际利率预期上行，本事件的方向判断作废", "raw_facts": { "series": "Daily Treasury Par Real Yield Curve Rates", "supersedes_event_id": "treasury_real_yield_curve_20260803", "published_time_note": "原文页面显示数据行日期 2026-08-04，但未披露该行的精确发布时间；published_at_utc 按可确认最早日期 00:00:00Z 记录。", "event_time_note": "原文给出数据行日期 2026-08-04 但未给出精确事件时刻；event_time_quality=day_only，event_time_utc 填裸日期。", "observations": { "2026-08-04": { "5 YR": "2.14", "7 YR": "2.26", "10 YR": "2.40", "20 YR": "2.75", "30 YR": "2.96" }, "2026-08-03": { "5 YR": "2.17", "7 YR": "2.29", "10 YR": "2.43", "20 YR": "2.78", "30 YR": "2.99" } }, "comparison_note": "来源页面同时列出 2026-08-03 与 2026-08-04；五个期限的 2026-08-04 原文值均低于 2026-08-03 原文值。" }, "source": { "tier": "A", "title": "Daily Treasury Rates", "url": "[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026))", "published_at": "原文未披露精确时刻，数据行日期为 2026-08-04" }, "source_urls": [ "[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "wgc_central_bank_gold_statistics_202606", "event_type": "CENTRAL_BANK_GOLD_DEMAND", "title": "WGC：央行 6 月公开净购金 51 吨", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-06-30", "event_time_quality": "day_only", "asset_keys": [ "AU", "COMEX_GC" ], "status": "new", "confidence": 100, "direction_score": { "AU": 1, "COMEX_GC": 1 }, "horizon": "weeks", "transmission_chain": "WGC 报告央行 6 月公开净购金 51 吨→官方储备配置需求仍有增量→对黄金形成有限支撑", "invalidation_conditions": "若后续同系列数据显示 7 月转为公开净卖出，或 H1 买盘数据被大幅下修，本事件的方向判断作废", "raw_facts": { "monthly_net_purchase": "51t", "data_cutoff": "June 2026", "year_to_date_changes_by_country": { "Poland": "82t buyer", "Uzbekistan": "41t buyer", "China": "40t buyer", "Kazakhstan": "27t buyer", "Czech Republic": "11t buyer", "Singapore": "10t buyer", "Chile": "8t buyer", "Jordan": "6t buyer", "Ghana": "6t buyer", "Turkey": "83t seller", "Russia": "44t seller" }, "q2_country_detail": { "Turkey": "4t sales in Q2", "Russia": "22t sales in Q2" }, "scope_note": "该统计只包含公开报告的央行储备变化；WGC 注明其与包含未报告购金估算的 Gold Demand Trends 统计口径不同。", "published_time_note": "原文仅披露页面日期 2026-08-04，未披露精确发布时间；published_at_utc 按可确认最早日期 00:00:00Z 记录。", "event_time_note": "原文数据截至 2026 年 6 月，event_time_quality=day_only，event_time_utc 填裸日期。" }, "source": { "tier": "A", "title": "Central bank gold statistics: June 2026", "url": "[https://www.[gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2026/08/central-bank-gold-statistics-june-2026](https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2026/08/central-bank-gold-statistics-june-2026)](https://gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2026/08/central-bank-gold-statistics-june-2026](https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2026/08/central-bank-gold-statistics-june-2026))", "published_at": "2026-08-04（原文未披露精确时刻）" }, "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2026/08/central-bank-gold-statistics-june-2026](https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2026/08/central-bank-gold-statistics-june-2026)](https://gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2026/08/central-bank-gold-statistics-june-2026](https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2026/08/central-bank-gold-statistics-june-2026))" ], "source_tier": "A" } ] }