SpaceX opens today, Intel gets a rare double-upgrade, and Adobe's report sets the software tone

SpaceX opens for trading today — and that's only the second-biggest story in tech stocks Friday morning.

Thursday delivered a full course of catalysts: a surprise double-upgrade on Intel, hotter-than-expected wholesale inflation that markets initially shrugged off, an abrupt about-face on Iran air strikes that flipped crude oil 3% lower in minutes, Adobe's closely-watched earnings print after the bell, and a fresh batch of analyst calls on SpaceX ahead of its historic open.

The market read Thursday wrong — then right

Stocks opened in mild green on Thursday, even though May's Producer Price Index landed above every major forecast. Wholesale prices rose 1.1% month-over-month and 6.5% year-over-year — the fastest annual pace since November 2022 and above the expected 6.4% consensus reading.1 Energy drove most of the upside: gasoline prices jumped 23.4% and overall energy PPI surged 10.7% month-over-month, reflecting the ongoing supply disruption from the US-Iran conflict.

The deeper concern — for Fed watchers especially — is that core goods PPI also ticked up 0.8% in May, with transportation and warehousing services adding another 2.6%. Markets initially absorbed the data because crude oil fell overnight after US strikes appeared to conclude. Then President Trump threatened to bomb Iran again that morning and take "total control" of Kharg Island, sending Brent crude above $94.

The pivot came at midday. Trump announced he had "cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening," citing talks with Iranian leadership approaching agreement. Brent crude turned sharply, falling more than 3% to below $90. All three US equity indexes jumped to session highs: the Dow gained 1.4%, S&P 500 rose over 1%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.4%.2

Initial unemployment claims for the week ended June 6 came in at 229,000 — above the 219,000 estimate — rising for a third consecutive week to their highest level since February.1 Bond yields fell in a bull-flattening move as markets priced in some economic slowdown risk, partially offsetting the PPI pressure.

May 2026 macro snapshot

Key data points from the June 11 session

May PPI (YoY)

0.0+0.0%vs April

May PPI (MoM)

0.0

Initial jobless claims

0+4000.0%vs est. 219k

WTI crude (end of day)

$0.00−3.3%session change %

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The Fed meeting is six days away (June 17). Kevin Warsh chairs his first FOMC. The two-day data sequence — CPI at 4.0% on Wednesday, PPI at 6.5% on Thursday — leaves a complicated set of inputs for policymakers who've been leaning toward a hold with a hiking bias.

The World Bank also published its June Global Economic Prospects on Thursday, cutting the global growth forecast to 2.5% for 2026, down from 2.9% in 2025, citing the Iran conflict's energy price shock as the primary drag.3

SpaceX opens today: analyst targets range from $63 to $195

SpaceX prices at $135 per share and starts trading under ticker SPCX on the Nasdaq Friday morning. The offering aims to raise $75 billion by selling 555 million shares, implying a valuation of roughly $1.77 trillion — which would rank it among the ten largest listed companies globally.4

Wall Street spent Thursday publishing its opening positions:

Firm	Rating	Price Target	vs. IPO price
Oppenheimer	Outperform	$195	+44%
New Street Research	No rating	$165	+22%
Morningstar (Nicolas Owens)	—	$63	−53%

Oppenheimer sees SpaceX leveraging "terrestrial compute expertise" as a structural advantage in both space and AI compute markets, and argues the company has a path to a $10 trillion total addressable opportunity.5 New Street's $165 target sits 22% above the IPO price but carries no buy/sell recommendation yet.

Morningstar's bear case is more specific. Analyst Nicolas Owens puts fair value at $63 — 53% below the offering price — on the basis that investors are paying an implicit $72-per-share "option premium" for the feasibility of orbital AI data centers, which he assigns a 43% probability of never reaching commercial scale.4 In his most optimistic scenario, fair value reaches only $154.

Wedbush's Dan Ives — a long-standing bull — argued on Wednesday that the broader market will "adjust" to SpaceX's entry and that the near-term volatility is "a short-term bump." He also estimated more than an 80% chance that SpaceX eventually merges with Tesla, given Tesla's existing stake acquired through the xAI conversion.

The IPO mechanics add a structural volatility wrinkle: Nasdaq rule changes allow SpaceX to be weighted in the Nasdaq 100 based on a 3x multiplier of its $75 billion float — implying an effective index weight based on a $225 billion market cap — which means passive fund flows will track price swings with unusual amplification.6

SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket at launch — SpaceX preparing for its Nasdaq debut 6

Lockup terms are also non-standard: non-Musk insiders can sell portions of their holdings in waves starting weeks after the IPO, not the typical 180-day block.

Space-adjacent stocks caught a halo bid on Thursday. Virgin Galactic (SPCE) rose 23% and Rocket Lab (RKLB) gained 5% ahead of Friday's open.7

Iran added a geopolitical dimension specific to SpaceX: the Iranian news agency Fars added "all interests associated with economic holdings managed by Elon Musk in West Asia" — explicitly naming SpaceX — to its military target list on Thursday, though Trump's subsequent cancellation of strikes reduced immediate escalation risk.

Intel's best year since 1975 gets a street-high target

Intel (INTC) jumped roughly 5–10% Thursday after Bank of America's analyst Vivek Arya executed a rare double-upgrade — moving shares from Underperform directly to Buy — and raised the price target to $135 from $96, now the highest on Wall Street.8

The upgrade rests on two pillars. On the CPU side, Arya now projects Intel's server CPU sales reaching more than $40 billion by 2030 — roughly 25% of a $170 billion addressable market — driven by agentic AI workloads that structurally expand the CPU's role beyond traditional server management. On the foundry side, BofA identified several potential customer wins in Intel's pipeline: Apple M-Series wafers, MediaTek TPU wafers, Terafab IP and packaging, and additional ARM-based server CPU opportunities.8

BofA's revised EPS framework targets $6.24 in earnings power by 2030, applying a 25x multiple discounted back two years to arrive at $135. The firm's prior methodology, based on 2028 sum-of-parts, was "under-representing many of the company's CPU and foundry potentials that are further out," Arya said.

The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) rose 4% on the back of the Intel move, suggesting the broader chip complex caught a bid after several sessions of SMCI-driven selling pressure.

Intel is also up roughly 210% in 2026 year-to-date heading into Thursday, which BofA compared to AMD's trajectory during its institutional ownership ramp — when AMD's ownership among S&P 500 funds rose 1,400 basis points over a year alongside a 309% gain. Intel currently sits at just 16% ownership among S&P 500 funds, the second-lowest in the semiconductor and AI infrastructure peer group.

Intel: BofA's new framework

Key metrics underpinning the double-upgrade

New price target

$0.00+39.0%from $96

2030 EPS power est.

$0.00

Server CPU TAM by 2030

$0.00

S&P 500 fund ownership

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Adobe: the $233 stock that's pricing in doubt

Adobe (ADBE) reported Q2 FY2026 results after Thursday's bell. Going into the print, shares had declined to around $223–$233, near a 7-year low, despite the company beating estimates in each of the prior eight quarters.9 The Street consensus called for $5.81–$5.83 in non-GAAP EPS on approximately $6.45 billion in revenue, implying roughly 10% revenue growth and 15% EPS growth year-over-year.

The skepticism stems from a structural question: whether Adobe's AI tooling — Firefly, generative AI in Photoshop and Premiere — is expanding the total addressable market or pulling users toward lower-priced plans that cannibalize Creative Cloud subscription revenue. Q1 FY2026 results (reported in March) showed 12% revenue growth and $6.06 adjusted EPS, each beating consensus. The stock still fell.

Options market implied a roughly 9.5% move in either direction from the print. Analysts at Stifel hold a $400 Buy; TD Cowen cut their rating to Hold at $285 ahead of the report, reflecting the divide on whether AI monetization adds net growth or dilutes it.

The Q2 earnings call was scheduled for 5 PM EDT on Thursday. Results will be reflected in Friday's opening.

Analyst calls: SMCI gets a cautious initiation

Beyond Intel and SpaceX, Thursday's notable calls:

Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Wolfe Research initiated at Peer Perform (no target). The firm cited multiple risks: margin pressure, customer concentration, governance concerns, the ongoing DOJ indictment, and equity dilution after Wednesday's $7 billion offering.5 SMCI closed near $29 on Thursday after losing 19.7% on Wednesday.
Chewy (CHWY): MoffettNathanson downgraded to Neutral from Buy, cutting the price target to $22 from $50. "Unimpressive" organic growth and greater macro sensitivity were cited.
MarketAxess (MKTX): Rothschild & Co Redburn downgraded to Neutral from Buy, target $134 (from $189), noting the firm's near-monopoly in electronic US credit trading has eroded to roughly 38% of electronic volumes due to Tradeweb and Trumid competition.

ECB hikes, Bank of England holds: central bank crosscurrents

The European Central Bank raised its key deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% on Thursday — its first increase since September 2023 — citing inflation above 3% driven by the US-Iran war's energy shock.2 ECB economists now expect eurozone growth of just 0.8% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027, with inflation staying above 3% this year.

The Fed and Bank of England both meet next week and are expected to hold. The divergence — ECB hiking into a weak economy while the Fed holds amid hot inflation — reflects the different energy exposure of each region. For tech stocks, the Fed trajectory matters more directly: if Warsh's first meeting on June 17 carries a hawkish surprise in the dot plot, the re-rating pressure on long-duration growth names will resume.

What to watch Friday

SPCX open: SpaceX begins trading. Watch whether the open significantly exceeds or trails $135 and how much volume passive index ETFs generate in the first hour.
Adobe reaction: ADBE's after-hours move from Thursday night will set the opening tone for the software sector.
Iran ceasefire progress: Trump signaled a deal is "close." If a formal ceasefire materializes, crude oil could fall sharply, relieving rate-hike pressure and potentially rotating capital back into growth tech.
SMCI: Shares have fallen from above $50 in late May to around $29. Any update on the DOJ indictment timeline or commentary on the $7 billion equity raise's use of proceeds will matter for the stock's near-term floor.