2026-08-24 09:00｜有色金属事件流（10条）
覆盖2026-08-21 15:00至2026-08-24 09:00窗口，收录SHFE与LME库存及价格、Las Bambas复产、ICSG公报发布、铜精矿TC、铜现货和LME锌期限结构共10条可核验事件。
[
{
"event_id": "shfe_dailystock_20260821",
"title": "SHFE六种基本金属仓单全线下降",
"event_type": "inventory",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T07:00:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 1},
"confidence": 93,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": {
"data_date": "2026-08-21",
"unit": "tonnes",
"on_warrant": {
"copper": {"value": 46105, "change_vs_prior_day": -6974},
"aluminum": {"value": 274201, "change_vs_prior_day": -11030},
"zinc": {"value": 114403, "change_vs_prior_day": -657},
"lead": {"value": 61703, "change_vs_prior_day": -2215},
"nickel": {"value": 101782, "change_vs_prior_day": -415},
"tin": {"value": 5340, "change_vs_prior_day": -84},
"alumina_warehouse": {"value": 246022, "change_vs_prior_day": 3006},
"alumina_factory": {"value": 9300, "change_vs_prior_day": 0},
"cast_aluminum_alloy": {"value": 19967, "change_vs_prior_day": -31}
},
"report": "SHFE Vol.2026-154",
"publication_time_note": "官方详情页未披露精确发布时间；报告在窗口起点15:00后发布，published_at_utc使用窗口起点边界记录。"
},
"transmission_chain": "铜、铝、锌、铅、镍、锡仓单较上日均下降→国内可交割现货库存边际收紧→NONFERROUS短线供给溢价上升。",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续SHFE仓单日报显示六种金属仓单普遍回升，或现货升贴水同步走弱。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.shfe.cn/eng/reports/StatisticalData/DailyData/?query_params=dailystock&query_date=20260821",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/stock_data_list.dat"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "shfe_weeklystock_20260821",
"title": "SHFE周度库存铜增铝降",
"event_type": "inventory",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T07:00:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 0},
"confidence": 94,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"data_date": "2026-08-21",
"report": "Issue No. 32, 2026; Total Issues 1399",
"unit": "tonnes",
"inventory": {
"copper": {"delivery_able": 89548, "delivery_able_wow_change": 19817, "on_warrant": 46105, "on_warrant_wow_change": 12429},
"aluminum": {"delivery_able": 403797, "delivery_able_wow_change": -18300, "on_warrant": 274201, "on_warrant_wow_change": -23642},
"zinc": {"delivery_able": 155954, "delivery_able_wow_change": 1181, "on_warrant": 114403, "on_warrant_wow_change": 937},
"lead": {"delivery_able": 75045, "delivery_able_wow_change": -209, "on_warrant": 61703, "on_warrant_wow_change": -4161},
"nickel": {"delivery_able": 112277, "delivery_able_wow_change": -771, "on_warrant": 101782, "on_warrant_wow_change": 395},
"tin": {"delivery_able": 6018, "delivery_able_wow_change": 56, "on_warrant": 5340, "on_warrant_wow_change": -112}
},
"publication_time_note": "官方详情页仅披露日期；本期按窗口内已发布的周度报告记录，未将页面观察时刻当作精确发布时间。"
},
"transmission_chain": "SHFE可交割库存呈铜、锌上升而铝、铅、镍下降的分化→不同金属的现货可得性分化→NONFERROUS整体方向保持中性。",
"invalidation_conditions": "下一期SHFE周报大幅修正本期数据，或铜库存增量与现货升水走弱同时出现。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.shfe.cn/eng/reports/StatisticalData/WeeklyData/?query_params=weeklystock&query_date=20260821",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/reports/tradedata/dailyandweeklydata/"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "lme_official_prices_20260821",
"title": "LME六金属现金买价较前日全线上涨",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T12:25:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 2},
"confidence": 97,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": {
"valid_date": "2026-08-21",
"unit": "USD/t",
"cash_bid_ask": {
"copper": [14290.0, 14291.0],
"aluminum": [3226.5, 3227.0],
"zinc": [3978.0, 3980.0],
"nickel": [16845.0, 16860.0],
"lead": [1855.0, 1857.0],
"tin": [55850.0, 55900.0]
},
"three_month_bid_ask": {
"copper": [14233.0, 14235.0],
"aluminum": [3242.0, 3244.0],
"zinc": [3823.0, 3824.0],
"nickel": [16975.0, 17025.0],
"lead": [1897.0, 1898.0],
"tin": [56300.0, 56350.0]
},
"cash_bid_change_vs_2026_08_20": {
"copper": 122.0,
"aluminum": 46.5,
"zinc": 113.0,
"nickel": 205.0,
"lead": 9.0,
"tin": 1050.0
},
"publication_time_note": "LME官方页面给出伦敦时间12:20—13:25发布窗口；published_at_utc使用窗口结束边界12:25Z，不代表页面披露的精确时刻。"
},
"transmission_chain": "LME六种金属现金Bid较上一有效日全线上涨→海外现货定价中枢上移→NONFERROUS短线价格动能偏强。",
"invalidation_conditions": "下一有效日现金Bid普遍回落，或3个月期价格与现货价差快速扩大并压制现货成交。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.lme.com/market-data/reports-and-data/lme-official-prices"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "lme_closing_prices_20260821",
"title": "LME 8月21日三个月收盘价分化",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T16:50:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 0},
"confidence": 96,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": {
"valid_date": "2026-08-21",
"unit": "USD/t",
"three_month_closing": {
"copper": 14215.5,
"aluminum": 3237.5,
"zinc": 3823.0,
"nickel": 17058.0,
"lead": 1898.0,
"tin": 55891.0
},
"comparison_with_same_day_official_three_month_bid": {
"copper": -17.5,
"aluminum": -4.5,
"zinc": 0.0,
"nickel": 83.0,
"lead": 1.0,
"tin": -409.0
},
"publication_time_note": "LME官方页面说明收盘价自伦敦时间17:50起发布；published_at_utc使用该发布起点，不代表页面披露的精确文件时间。"
},
"transmission_chain": "LME三个月收盘价相对同日官方三个月Bid呈金属间分化→海外期限定价的强弱分化→NONFERROUS综合方向中性。",
"invalidation_conditions": "下一交易日LME三个月价格在六种金属上出现同向大幅反转，或官方更正本期收盘数据。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.lme.com/market-data/reports-and-data/lme-closing-prices"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "lme_daily_stocks_20260819_report",
"title": "LME铜镍库存增加、锌铅锡库存下降",
"event_type": "inventory",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T08:00:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 0},
"confidence": 95,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"data_date": "2026-08-19",
"unit": "metric tonnes",
"metals_totals": {
"copper": {"opening": 235975, "in": 5875, "out": 1925, "closing": 239925, "open_tonnage": 166775, "cancelled_tonnage": 73150, "closing_change_vs_2026_08_18": 3950},
"primary_aluminum": {"opening": 246925, "in": 0, "out": 0, "closing": 246925, "open_tonnage": 244475, "cancelled_tonnage": 2450, "closing_change_vs_2026_08_18": 0},
"shg_zinc": {"opening": 95050, "in": 300, "out": 950, "closing": 94400, "open_tonnage": 88250, "cancelled_tonnage": 6150, "closing_change_vs_2026_08_18": -650},
"lead": {"opening": 418575, "in": 0, "out": 1475, "closing": 417100, "open_tonnage": 369800, "cancelled_tonnage": 47300, "closing_change_vs_2026_08_18": -1475},
"nickel": {"opening": 265248, "in": 2946, "out": 0, "closing": 268194, "open_tonnage": 259152, "cancelled_tonnage": 9042, "closing_change_vs_2026_08_18": 2946},
"tin": {"opening": 5560, "in": 25, "out": 155, "closing": 5430, "open_tonnage": 4830, "cancelled_tonnage": 600, "closing_change_vs_2026_08_18": -130}
},
"publication_time_note": "LME官方说明库存明细报表延迟两个营业日发布；本期19 Aug文件按伦敦时间09:00发布规则计入窗口，文件本身未内嵌发布时间。",
"interpretation_note": "cancelled_tonnage为注销仓单吨数，不等同于库存总量变动。"
},
"transmission_chain": "LME铜、镍收盘库存增加而锌、铅、锡下降→海外仓储可得量呈品种分化→NONFERROUS综合库存信号中性。",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续官方库存修订本期Closing或连续两期库存转为同向累库。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.lme.com/market-data/reports-and-data/warehouse-and-stocks-reports/stock-breakdown-report",
"https://www.lme.com/Lme-api/ReportsListingSearchApi/Download?id=8adb0f4a-a83a-4d25-bfcd-75ac4b7ec813",
"https://www.lme.com/Lme-api/ReportsListingSearchApi/Download?id=1b000940-2eb9-4f08-a140-e60e10eea418"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "mmg_las_bambas_20260824_resumption",
"title": "Las Bambas矿山与选厂自8月21日复产",
"event_type": "mine_disruption",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-23T22:50:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": -1},
"confidence": 98,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"company": "MMG",
"mine": "Las Bambas",
"resumption_date": "2026-08-21",
"fact": "矿山与选矿厂自2026年8月21日起恢复运营。",
"prior_disruption": "2026年8月18日事故后临时停产，停产约三天。",
"published_time": "2026-08-24 06:50 HKT",
"published_time_utc": "2026-08-23T22:50:00Z"
},
"transmission_chain": "Las Bambas矿山与选厂复产→此前事故造成的铜精矿短期供应中断消退→铜精矿现货供应压力边际缓解。",
"invalidation_conditions": "秘鲁监管调查导致矿山再次停产、复产爬坡延迟，或公司后续公告下调产量指引。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.mmg.com/content/uploads/2026/08/e_2026-08-24_Voluntary-Announcement.pdf",
"https://www.mmg.com/investors/news-centre/announcements-and-notices-voluntary-announcement-3/"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "icsg_monthly_copper_bulletin_20260821",
"title": "ICSG八月铜公报于窗口内发布",
"event_type": "supply_demand",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-21T10:54:40Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T10:54:40Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 0},
"confidence": 96,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"publication": "Monthly Copper Bulletin - August 2026",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T10:54:40Z",
"numeric_balance_status": "公报正文为订阅内容，最新月度供需平衡数字未公开，未写入未经核验的盈余或缺口。"
},
"transmission_chain": "ICSG发布最新月度铜公报→市场获得新的供需数据入口但当前数字不可核验→NONFERROUS方向暂定中性，待正文数字可访问后更新。",
"invalidation_conditions": "ICSG公开公报正文、供需表或后续修订稿披露可核验的最新平衡数字。",
"source_urls": [
"https://icsg.org/"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "mysteel_copper_tc_20260824",
"title": "Mysteel铜精矿TC指数报-181.25美元",
"event_type": "supply_demand",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-24T00:57:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 1},
"confidence": 93,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"data_date": "2026-08-24",
"index": "Mysteel标准干净铜精矿TC指数",
"value": -181.25,
"unit": "USD/dry tonne",
"published_at_beijing": "2026-08-24 08:57",
"week_over_week_change": "accessible body未提供可核验的周环比数字"
},
"transmission_chain": "铜精矿TC指数深度为负→冶炼厂采购精矿的加工费收入承压并反映矿端议价偏强→铜精矿供应紧张信号对铜价形成支撑。",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续公开TC指数明显回升至正值，或矿山增产、冶炼减产结束使精矿供需重新宽松。",
"source_urls": [
"https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26082408/35B450F2CA9ABB3D.html"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "mysteel_copper_spot_20260821",
"title": "Mysteel铜现货升水承压、成交量环比增1.84%",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T09:35:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": -1},
"confidence": 96,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": {
"data_date": "2026-08-21",
"market": "Shanghai 1# electrolytic copper",
"early_quotes": {
"differential_brands_premium": [240, 250],
"mainstream_normal_copper_premium": [260, 280],
"unit": "CNY/t"
},
"surveyed_transaction_volume": {"value": 25900, "unit": "tonnes", "change_vs_prior_day_percent": 1.84},
"market_description": "现货升水承压走跌，持货商下调报价促成交，下游谨慎观望。"
},
"transmission_chain": "上海主流铜现货升水报260—280元/吨且市场称升水承压→持货商让价促成交、下游观望→现货端对NONFERROUS短线价格的支撑减弱。",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续现货升水重新扩大并伴随成交量持续增加，或下游采购转为主动补库。",
"source_urls": [
"https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26082117/48F47B4F9E12A053.html"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "smm_lme_zinc_basis_20260824",
"title": "LME锌现货对3个月升水达132.37美元",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-24T00:24:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 2},
"confidence": 88,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"data_date": "2026-08-20",
"metric": "LME zinc cash premium versus 3M",
"value": 132.37,
"unit": "USD/t",
"comparison": "2026年年内最大现货升水",
"provenance": "SMM页面标注来源为华尔街见闻；数值为转发报道中的LME市场数据。",
"page_time_note": "页面显示发布时间为北京时间2026-08-24 08:24，秒数未披露。"
},
"transmission_chain": "LME锌现货对3个月升水扩大至132.37美元/吨→现货可得性相对期货更紧、期限结构走强→锌价短线供给溢价上升。",
"invalidation_conditions": "LME锌现货升水快速收窄，或库存回升、现货供应改善使期限结构恢复平坦。",
"source_urls": [
"https://news.smm.cn/news/104074101"
],
"source_tier": "B"
}
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