2026-08-21 09:00｜有色金属事件流（19条）
覆盖2026-08-20 15:00至2026-08-21 09:00窗口，收录SHFE与LME库存和价格、Las Bambas停产、TC/RC、铝锌镍铅现货及美国官方宏观数据共19条事件。
[
{
"event_id": "mmg-cu-20260820-las_bambas_halt",
"title": "Las Bambas事故后暂时停产，预计21日复产",
"event_type": "mine_disruption",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T12:10:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": -1},
"confidence": 93,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"publisher": "MMG Limited",
"mine": "Las Bambas",
"country": "秘鲁",
"incident_date": "2026-08-18",
"incident_facts": "澄清池水泵更换作业发生事故，2人死亡、3人受伤",
"operating_status": "事故区域活动暂停，Las Bambas暂时停产",
"expected_restart_date": "2026-08-21",
"guidance_status": "MMG未修改2026年铜产量指引",
"secondary_update_published_at": "2026-08-20T12:10:00Z",
"publication_note": "矿山事故发生日早于本窗口；窗口内新增的是停产状态与预计复产信息的公开更新"
},
"transmission_chain": "MMG确认Las Bambas暂时停产且预计8月21日逐步复产→短期铜精矿供给存在中断风险，实际影响取决于复产进度→铜价供给端方向信号偏正。",
"invalidation_conditions": "Las Bambas于2026-08-21按计划恢复运营且MMG不下调产量指引；若复产推迟或指引下调，事件影响延长。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.mmg.com/content/uploads/2026/08/e_2026-08-19_Voluntary-LB-Fatalities.pdf",
"https://www.mining.com/las-bambas-halt-adds-to-south-america-copper-woes/"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "shfe-cn-20260820-warehouse",
"title": "SHFE仓库氧化铝仓单减35961吨",
"event_type": "inventory",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T07:00:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 0},
"confidence": 97,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": {
"market": "SHFE",
"report_type": "指定交割仓库期货仓单日报",
"observation_date": "2026-08-20",
"report_number": "2026年第153期（总第4346期）",
"unit": "吨（黄金、白银除外）",
"change_reference": "2026-08-19",
"inventory": {
"铜": {"total": 53079, "change": -3619},
"铝": {"total": 285231, "change": -5305},
"锌": {"total": 115060, "change": -1},
"铅": {"total": 63918, "change": -1572},
"镍": {"total": 102197, "change": 199},
"锡": {"total": 5424, "change": -167},
"氧化铝_仓库": {"total": 243016, "change": -35961},
"氧化铝_厂库": {"total": 9300, "change": 0},
"铸造铝合金": {"total": 19998, "change": -392}
},
"copper_regional_inventory": {
"上海": {"total": 21909, "change": -1320},
"广东": {"total": 9377, "change": -200},
"江苏": {"total": 20073, "change": -1226},
"浙江": {"total": 1720, "change": -873}
},
"published_time_basis": "SHFE官方查询页标注数据日与期号，仓单日报按15:00收盘后发布时段计"
},
"transmission_chain": "SHFE日报显示铜、铝、铅、锡和仓库氧化铝仓单较前日减少，镍仓单增加→交易所仓单数量变量分化，但该表未区分实际交割、仓单转移与注销→对近月价格的库存信号保持中性，需结合现货升贴水确认。",
"invalidation_conditions": "下一期同口径铜、铝、铅、锡和仓库氧化铝仓单多数转为增加，且现货升贴水同步走弱；或官方报告显示本期减少主要来自仓单转移。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/reports/tradedata/dailyandweeklydata/?query_options=1&query_date=20260820&query_params=dailystock",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/stock_data_list.dat"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "lme-cu-20260820-official_curve",
"title": "LME铜现货较3个月升水约198.75美元",
"event_type": "supply_demand",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T12:25:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 1},
"confidence": 99,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": {
"market": "LME",
"metal": "铜",
"observation_date": "2026-08-20",
"unit": "美元/吨",
"cash_bid": 14168.00,
"cash_ask": 14170.00,
"three_month_bid": 13970.00,
"three_month_ask": 13970.50,
"cash_mid": 14169.00,
"three_month_mid": 13970.25,
"cash_minus_three_month_mid": 198.75,
"official_publication_window": "12:20—13:25 London time",
"published_time_basis": "以官方公布窗口结束时刻计"
},
"transmission_chain": "LME铜现货中间价14169美元/吨较3个月中间价13970.25美元/吨高198.75美元→近月现货紧张和持货成本信号增强→铜近月价格支撑偏强。",
"invalidation_conditions": "LME铜现货—3个月价差收窄至50美元/吨以内，或官方库存连续增加并伴随现货升水消失。",
"source_urls": ["https://www.lme.com/market-data/reports-and-data/lme-official-prices"],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "lme-base-20260820-official_curve",
"title": "LME铝锌镍铅锡官方期限结构更新",
"event_type": "supply_demand",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T12:25:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 0},
"confidence": 99,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"market": "LME",
"observation_date": "2026-08-20",
"unit": "美元/吨",
"official_publication_window": "12:20—13:25 London time",
"three_month_bid_ask": {
"铝": [3182.00, 3183.00],
"锌": [3742.00, 3743.00],
"镍": [16850.00, 16860.00],
"铅": [1884.00, 1886.00],
"锡": [54700.00, 54800.00]
},
"cash_bid_ask": {
"铝": [3180.00, 3182.00],
"锌": [3865.00, 3865.50],
"镍": [16640.00, 16660.00],
"铅": [1846.00, 1848.00],
"锡": [54800.00, 54850.00]
},
"forward_bid_ask": {
"铝_Dec27": [3122.00, 3127.00],
"锌_Dec27": [3573.00, 3578.00],
"镍_Dec27": [17640.00, 17690.00],
"铅_Dec27": [2033.00, 2038.00],
"锡_15个月": [54860.00, 54910.00]
},
"published_time_basis": "以官方公布窗口结束时刻计"
},
"transmission_chain": "LME官方曲线显示锌、锡现金中间价高于3个月，而铝、镍、铅现金中间价低于3个月→不同金属的近远月价差方向分化→NONFERROUS综合方向保持中性。",
"invalidation_conditions": "同一官方页面后续修订任一价位，或下一交易日五种金属的现金—3个月价差方向全部反转。",
"source_urls": ["https://www.lme.com/market-data/reports-and-data/lme-official-prices"],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "lme-cu-20260820-closing_3m",
"title": "LME铜3个月收盘价报14036.50美元",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T16:50:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 1},
"confidence": 98,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": {
"market": "LME",
"metal": "铜",
"observation_date": "2026-08-20",
"contract": "3M",
"unit": "美元/吨",
"closing_price": 14036.50,
"m1_price": 14103.36,
"m6_price": 14010.61,
"publication_rule": "Closing Prices从17:50 London time起发布"
},
"transmission_chain": "LME铜3个月收盘价为14036.50美元/吨→该数值确认当日收盘价，但单一收盘价未提供跨日比较→对NONFERROUS短线方向不作额外推断。",
"invalidation_conditions": "下一交易日LME官方页面修订2026-08-20铜3个月收盘价，或下一交易日同合约收盘价低于13970.50美元/吨。",
"source_urls": ["https://www.lme.com/market-data/reports-and-data/lme-closing-prices"],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "lme-base-20260818-warehouse_inventory",
"title": "LME铜库存增12425吨，锌库存增8525吨",
"event_type": "inventory",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T08:00:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": -1},
"confidence": 96,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"market": "LME",
"observation_date": "2026-08-18",
"publication_date": "2026-08-20",
"unit": "吨",
"inventory": {
"铜": {"total": 235975, "change": 12425, "open": 158750, "cancelled": 77225},
"铅": {"total": 418575, "change": 9575, "open": 369950, "cancelled": 48625},
"镍": {"total": 265248, "change": 78, "open": 256206, "cancelled": 9042},
"原铝": {"total": 246925, "change": 0, "open": 244475, "cancelled": 2450},
"锌": {"total": 95050, "change": 8525, "open": 87975, "cancelled": 7075},
"锡": {"total": 5560, "change": 260, "open": 4860, "cancelled": 700}
},
"report_lag": "官方Stock breakdown report每日发布、数据延迟两日"
},
"transmission_chain": "LME报告显示铜、铅、锌和锡总库存较前一报告日增加，而铜、铅、锌和锡均有可用仓单→库存总量变量偏宽松，但报告未提供前一日Open/Cancelled拆分→对近月价格的影响需与现货—3个月价差联判。",
"invalidation_conditions": "下一份同口径报告显示铜或锌总库存下降，或现货—3个月价差重新扩大并覆盖本次库存增量。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.lme.com/market-data/reports-and-data/warehouse-and-stocks-reports/stock-breakdown-report",
"https://www.lme.com/Lme-api/ReportsListingSearchApi/Download?id=1b000940-2eb9-4f08-a140-e60e10eea418"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "dol-us-20260820-initial_claims",
"title": "美国初请失业金初值降至20.6万人",
"event_type": "macro_release",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-20T12:30:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T12:30:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 1},
"confidence": 97,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"publisher": "US Department of Labor ETA",
"reference_week_end": "2026-08-15",
"unit": "人",
"initial_claims": 206000,
"previous_week_revised_claims": 212000,
"week_over_week_change": -6000,
"previous_week_initial_claims": 209000,
"four_week_average": 204000,
"previous_four_week_average_revised": 199750,
"four_week_average_change": 4250,
"seasonal_adjustment": "seasonally adjusted"
},
"transmission_chain": "美国初请失业金初值较前周修正值减少6000人→短期劳动力市场指标边际改善→工业需求预期的方向信号偏正，但本条不替代金属订单数据。",
"invalidation_conditions": "DOL后续修订初请值高于212000人，或同一系列四周均值连续两期上升。",
"source_urls": ["https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/eta"],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "phillyfed-us-20260820-manufacturing",
"title": "费城联储制造业景气升至47.4",
"event_type": "macro_release",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-20T12:30:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T12:30:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 1},
"confidence": 96,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"publisher": "Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia",
"observation_month": "2026-08",
"unit": "SA diffusion index points",
"general_activity": 47.4,
"previous_month_general_activity": 41.4,
"month_over_month_change": 6.0,
"new_orders": 30.1,
"shipments": 27.7,
"employment": 27.9,
"prices_paid": 40.9,
"prices_received": 17.7,
"six_month_general_activity_expectation": 73.6,
"historical_comparison": "2021年4月以来最高，2021年4月为48.8"
},
"transmission_chain": "费城联储8月当期总体景气扩散指数由41.4升至47.4→当期制造业调查指标改善，未来6个月预期另为73.6→美国工业需求方向信号偏正。",
"invalidation_conditions": "下一期当期总体景气指数低于41.4，或新订单指数低于30.1且出货指数低于27.7。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/manufacturing-business-outlook-survey",
"https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/MBOS/Historical-Data/Data-Series/bos_history.csv"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "eia-us-20260820-gas_storage",
"title": "美国天然气库存周增16Bcf至3169Bcf",
"event_type": "macro_release",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-20T14:30:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T14:30:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 0},
"confidence": 97,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"publisher": "US Energy Information Administration",
"reference_week_end": "2026-08-14",
"unit": "Bcf",
"working_gas_storage": 3169,
"previous_week_storage": 3153,
"week_over_week_change": 16,
"year_ago_storage": 3197,
"five_year_average": 2984,
"versus_year_ago": -28,
"versus_five_year_average": 185
},
"transmission_chain": "美国天然气库存周增16Bcf且高于五年均值185Bcf→EIA库存指标显示短期能源供给偏宽松→在缺少天然气价格与冶炼地区成本数据的情况下，对有色金属价格方向保持中性。",
"invalidation_conditions": "下一期EIA库存低于五年均值，或天然气现货/期货价格与库存数据同时显示能源成本上行。",
"source_urls": ["https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html"],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "mysteel-cu-20260820-tc_weekly",
"title": "Mysteel摘要显示铜精矿TC为-176.22美元",
"event_type": "supply_demand",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T09:23:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 0},
"confidence": 78,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"publisher": "Mysteel",
"metal": "铜",
"observation_date": "2026-08-20",
"metric": "铜精矿TC周指数",
"unit": "美元/干吨",
"tc_weekly_index": -176.22,
"change_reference": "原文未提供同口径前值",
"source_note": "正文表格需订阅，数值来自详情页可见AI摘要"
},
"transmission_chain": "Mysteel详情页可见AI摘要显示铜精矿TC周指数为-176.22美元/干吨→该摘要指标显示加工费处于负值，但正文表格未公开→铜精矿供需方向信号暂记中性，待公开同口径指数复核。",
"invalidation_conditions": "Mysteel或SMM公开同口径TC表格显示该数值被修订，或下一期同口径指数回升至0美元/干吨以上。",
"source_urls": ["https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26082017/28285AFF232E638A.html"],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "mysteel-cu-20260821-tc_quote",
"title": "Mysteel早读称铜精矿报盘低至-200美元/干吨",
"event_type": "supply_demand",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T00:54:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 0},
"confidence": 76,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": {
"publisher": "Mysteel",
"metal": "铜",
"observation_date": "2026-08-20",
"metric": "进口铜精矿市场参与者报盘",
"unit": "美元/干吨",
"reported_quote_low": -200,
"quote_type": "市场参与者向炼厂报盘，非官方指数",
"domestic_electrolytic_copper_trade_volume": 25400,
"domestic_electrolytic_copper_trade_volume_unit": "吨",
"domestic_trade_volume_change": 0.1387,
"domestic_trade_volume_change_unit": "ratio",
"change_reference": "2026-08-19同口径成交量"
},
"transmission_chain": "Mysteel早读记录单一市场参与者报盘低至-200美元/干吨→该报盘显示原料加工费谈判压力，但没有前值和成交确认→铜精矿方向信号暂记中性，不直接外推为全球供给变化。",
"invalidation_conditions": "下一期同口径公开TC指数回升至0美元/干吨以上，或后续报道明确该报盘为单一非成交个案。",
"source_urls": ["https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26082108/99187E519F249B59.html"],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "mysteel-cu-20260820-domestic_concentrate",
"title": "Mysteel20%品位铜精矿报20722元/吨",
"event_type": "supply_demand",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T07:22:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 1},
"confidence": 94,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": {
"publisher": "Mysteel",
"metal": "铜精矿",
"observation_date": "2026-08-20",
"grade": "20%品位中国干净铜精矿",
"unit": "元/吨",
"pricing_coefficient": 97,
"pricing_coefficient_unit": "%",
"spot_price": 20722,
"previous_day_spot_price": 20709,
"spot_price_change": 13,
"change_reference_date": "2026-08-19"
},
"transmission_chain": "20%品位国产铜精矿现货价较前日上涨13元/吨，计价系数为97%→该口径的矿端现货报价上升→铜精矿价格方向信号偏正，但本条不据此判断全球供给紧张。",
"invalidation_conditions": "下一期同品位现货价低于20709元/吨，或计价系数低于97%。",
"source_urls": ["https://www.mysteel.com/hot/1589563.html"],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "smm-al-20260820-spot_price",
"title": "SMM A00铝锭报23600元/吨跌70元",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T07:12:11Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": -1},
"confidence": 91,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": {
"publisher": "SMM铝行业交流平台",
"metal": "铝",
"grade": "A00铝锭",
"observation_date": "2026-08-20",
"unit": "元/吨",
"spot_price": 23600,
"spot_price_change": -70,
"change_reference_date": "2026-08-19",
"source_wording": "较前一交易日下跌70元/吨"
},
"transmission_chain": "SMM A00铝锭现货价较前一交易日下跌70元/吨→铝现货价格边际走弱→沪铝现货方向信号偏空。",
"invalidation_conditions": "下一交易日A00铝锭现货价高于23600元/吨且公开升贴水较本期扩大，或SMM修订本期跌幅。",
"source_urls": ["http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA3MjA0NTE5MQ==&mid=2653133577&idx=1&sn=9575fb975f3265f4240ec479fa82a6fc"],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "smm-zn-20260820-spot_price",
"title": "SMM锌锭现货均价各涨100元/吨",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T08:02:35Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 1},
"confidence": 94,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": {
"publisher": "SMM锌行业交流平台",
"metal": "锌",
"observation_date": "2026-08-20",
"unit": "元/吨",
"spot_prices": {
"0#锌锭": {"range_low": 25245, "range_high": 25345, "average": 25295, "change": 100},
"1#锌锭": {"range_low": 25175, "range_high": 25275, "average": 25225, "change": 100}
},
"change_reference_date": "2026-08-19"
},
"transmission_chain": "SMM 0#和1#锌锭现货均价均较前日上涨100元/吨→锌现货价格边际走强→沪锌现货方向信号偏正。",
"invalidation_conditions": "下一交易日0#和1#锌锭均价均低于本条记录的25295元/吨和25225元/吨，或同一SMM口径公开升贴水转为负值并至少持续一个交易日。",
"source_urls": ["http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA3MjA0NDQ3Ng==&mid=2664511897&idx=3&sn=f9605e94b0e5cb58a3c92b997ae92459"],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "smm-zn-20260820-tc",
"title": "SMM国产锌精矿周度TC下跌400元",
"event_type": "supply_demand",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T08:02:35Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 1},
"confidence": 94,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"publisher": "SMM锌行业交流平台",
"metal": "锌",
"observation_date": "2026-08-20",
"unit": "元/金属吨、美元/干吨",
"tc": {
"Zn50国产TC_周": {"range_low": -1800, "range_high": -1300, "average": -1550, "change": -400, "date": "2026-08-14"},
"进口锌精矿指数_周": {"average": 107.38, "change": -3.88, "unit": "美元/干吨", "date": "2026-08-14"},
"Zn50国产TC_月": {"range_low": -1000, "range_high": -700, "average": -850, "change": -350, "date": "2026-08-01"},
"进口锌精矿指数_月": {"average": 89.81, "change": -17.01, "unit": "美元/干吨", "date": "2026-07-31"}
},
"change_definition": "各项change为图表相对上一期同口径数值的变化"
},
"transmission_chain": "国产锌精矿周度TC均值降至-1550元/金属吨、较前期下降400元，进口锌精矿周度指数降3.88美元/干吨→加工费指标走弱→锌精矿供需方向信号偏紧，但价格方向仍需库存与现货升贴水确认。",
"invalidation_conditions": "下一期国产锌精矿周度TC高于-1550元/金属吨且进口指数高于107.38美元/干吨，或SMM修订本期变动。",
"source_urls": ["http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA3MjA0NDQ3Ng==&mid=2664511897&idx=3&sn=f9605e94b0e5cb58a3c92b997ae92459"],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "smm-ni-20260820-spot_price",
"title": "SMM电解镍均价涨至130250元/吨",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T10:05:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 1},
"confidence": 92,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": {
"publisher": "SMM镍铬锰不锈钢",
"metal": "镍",
"grade": "1#电解镍",
"observation_date": "2026-08-20",
"unit": "元/吨",
"spot_average": 130250,
"spot_average_change": 2050,
"change_reference_date": "2026-08-19",
"premium": {
"brand": "金川1#电解镍",
"average": 1550,
"change": 0,
"unit": "元/吨"
},
"electrolytic_nickel_premium_range": [0, 500],
"main_contract": "沪镍2609",
"main_contract_morning_close": 129560,
"main_contract_change_ratio": 0.0119
},
"transmission_chain": "SMM 1#电解镍均价较前日上涨2050元/吨、金川升贴水均值维持1550元/吨→镍现货价格上涨且品牌升贴水未收窄→镍现货方向信号偏正。",
"invalidation_conditions": "下一交易日1#电解镍均价低于130250元/吨且金川升贴水均值低于1550元/吨，或SMM修订本期涨幅。",
"source_urls": ["http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzkxMDI5Nzg5MQ==&mid=2247501804&idx=2&sn=cb0cf22fbb8fff7209e6c7ff6c510d38"],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "smm-ao-20260820-index",
"title": "SMM氧化铝指数周跌0.46元至2681.62元",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T11:18:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": -1},
"confidence": 94,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"publisher": "SMM",
"metal": "氧化铝",
"observation_date": "2026-08-20",
"change_reference_date": "2026-08-13",
"unit": "元/吨",
"index_average": 2681.62,
"index_change": -0.46,
"regional_quotes": {
"山东": {"range": [2650, 2720], "weekly_change": -10},
"河南": {"range": [2690, 2750], "weekly_change": -10},
"山西": {"range": [2680, 2740], "weekly_change": -10},
"广西": {"range": [2580, 2640], "weekly_change": -5},
"贵州": {"range": [2720, 2790], "weekly_change": -10}
},
"operating_rate": 0.7433,
"weekly_output": 168.8,
"weekly_output_unit": "万吨",
"total_inventory": 724.5,
"total_inventory_unit": "万吨",
"inventory_weekly_change": -3.0
},
"transmission_chain": "SMM氧化铝指数周跌0.46元/吨、主要地区报价下跌5—10元/吨且库存周降3万吨→本期公开指标共同走弱→氧化铝价格方向信号偏空。",
"invalidation_conditions": "下一期SMM氧化铝指数高于2681.62元/吨且全国总库存高于724.5万吨，或山东、河南、山西、广西、贵州五地报价至少四地较本期上涨。",
"source_urls": ["https://hq.smm.cn/aluminum/content/104071033"],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "smm-pb-20260820-spot_price",
"title": "SMM铅锭现货价格上涨50元",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T07:00:08Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 1},
"confidence": 90,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": {
"publisher": "SMM铅产业观察",
"metal": "铅",
"observation_date": "2026-08-20",
"unit": "元/吨",
"lead_ingot_change": 50,
"recycled_refined_lead_change": 50,
"recycled_lead_pb985_change": 50,
"change_reference_date": "2026-08-19",
"absolute_price_status": "原文公开正文给出涨跌，未给出本条采用的绝对均价"
},
"transmission_chain": "SMM铅锭及再生铅价格较前日均上涨50元/吨→铅现货价格指标边际走强→铅现货方向信号偏正。",
"invalidation_conditions": "下一交易日铅锭与再生精铅的公开涨跌均不再为+50元/吨，或SMM修订本期涨跌。",
"source_urls": ["http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg2MTkxMjk0Mw==&mid=2247550600&idx=1&sn=14ee70320d87db6d037249f1753678ae"],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "smm-pb-20260820-tc_monthly",
"title": "SMM进口铅精矿月度TC下跌15美元",
"event_type": "supply_demand",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T07:00:08Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 1},
"confidence": 90,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"publisher": "SMM铅产业观察",
"metal": "铅",
"observation_date": "2026-08-20",
"unit": "美元/干吨、元/金属吨",
"tc": {
"Pb50国产TC_周": {"change": 0},
"Pb60进口TC_周": {"change": 0},
"Pb50国产TC_月": {"change": 0},
"Pb60进口TC_月": {"change": -15}
},
"change_reference": "各项change为原文同口径前期变化"
},
"transmission_chain": "Pb60进口铅精矿月度TC下降15美元/干吨→进口精矿加工费指标走弱→铅精矿供需方向信号偏紧，但价格方向需库存与现货升贴水确认。",
"invalidation_conditions": "下一期Pb60进口铅精矿月度TC高于本期数值，或SMM修订本期-15美元/干吨变动。",
"source_urls": ["http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg2MTkxMjk0Mw==&mid=2247550600&idx=1&sn=14ee70320d87db6d037249f1753678ae"],
"source_tier": "B"
}
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