2026-08-25 09:00｜有色金属事件流（15条）
覆盖2026-08-24 15:00至2026-08-25 09:00窗口，收录SHFE与LME库存、美国官方宏观、铜精矿现货、铜成交、氧化铝、矿山供给及电网需求等15条可核验事件。
[
{
"event_id": "shfe-cn-20260824-warehouse",
"title": "上期所铜铝铅仓单分别减少5002、9764、4687吨",
"event_type": "inventory",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-25T01:04:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 1},
"confidence": 90,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"effective_date_bjt": "2026-08-24",
"publication_period": "2026年第155期（总第4348期）",
"unit": "吨",
"copper_warehouse_receipts": "41103，较前一交易日-5002",
"aluminium_warehouse_receipts": "264437，较前一交易日-9764",
"zinc_warehouse_receipts": "114507，较前一交易日+104",
"lead_warehouse_receipts": "57016，较前一交易日-4687",
"nickel_warehouse_receipts": "101854，较前一交易日+72",
"tin_warehouse_receipts": "5494，较前一交易日+154",
"alumina_warehouse_receipts": "243602，较前一交易日-2420",
"first_observed_at_utc": "2026-08-25T01:04:00Z"
},
"transmission_chain": "铜、铝和铅仓单减少→可交割货源下降而近月现货支撑增强→对应金属期限结构和近月价格偏多。",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续官方日报修正本期仓单变动，或连续日报显示仓单重新增加并抵消本期降幅。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/reports/tradedata/dailyandweeklydata/?query_options=1&query_date=20260824&query_params=dailystock",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/stock_data_list.dat",
"https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/config/currentTradingday.dat"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "lme-base-20260820-warehouse_inventory",
"title": "LME铜锌铅库存分别减少1350、1275、250吨",
"event_type": "inventory",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-24T08:00:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 1},
"confidence": 90,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"data_date": "2026-08-20",
"report_release_rule": "2026-08-24 09:00 Europe/London（BST）",
"unit": "吨",
"copper": "239925→238575，变动-1350；In 1275，Out 2625；Open 168600，Cancelled 69975",
"primary_aluminium": "246925→246925，变动0；Open 243950，Cancelled 2975",
"special_high_grade_zinc": "94400→93125，变动-1275；In 375，Out 1650；Open 88575，Cancelled 4550",
"lead": "417100→416850，变动-250；Open 363950，Cancelled 52900",
"nickel": "268194→268488，变动+294；In 294，Out 0；Open 257862，Cancelled 10626",
"tin": "5430→5385，变动-45；In 15，Out 60；Open 4825，Cancelled 560"
},
"transmission_chain": "LME铜、锌、铅和锡总库存下降而镍库存增加→可用库存变化分化→铜锌近月供应边际偏紧、镍价格信号偏空。",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续LME库存报告修正本期Closing或取消仓单数据，或连续报告显示库存回升。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.lme.com/market-data/reports-and-data/warehouse-and-stocks-reports/stock-breakdown-report",
"https://www.lme.com/Lme-api/ReportsListingSearchApi/Download?id=54da312c-b573-4e3b-89e2-239c80aef063",
"https://www.lme.com/market-data/reports-and-data/publication-schedule"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "fed-us-20260824-cfnai",
"title": "美国7月CFNAI降至-0.08低于6月0.06",
"event_type": "macro_release",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-24T12:30:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-24T12:30:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": -1},
"confidence": 90,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"release_time_et": "2026-08-24 08:30",
"observation_month": "2026-07",
"cfnai_index": "-0.08",
"previous_month_2026_06": "+0.06",
"2026_05": "-0.12",
"2026_04": "+0.10",
"unit": "指数"
},
"transmission_chain": "美国7月CFNAI由+0.06降至-0.08→经济活动低于趋势的信号增强→有色金属需求预期边际转弱。",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续修订将7月指数上调至正值，或后续美国工业和消费数据重新走强。",
"source_urls": [
"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI",
"https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/data-release-calendar"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "fed-us-20260824-cfsec",
"title": "芝加哥联储8月制造业指数降至19.51",
"event_type": "macro_release",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-24T14:00:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-24T14:00:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": -1},
"confidence": 80,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"release_time_et": "2026-08-24 10:00",
"observation_month": "2026-08",
"manufacturing_activity_index": "19.51",
"previous_month_2026_07": "32.31",
"2026_06": "66.67",
"unit": "指数，未季调"
},
"transmission_chain": "芝加哥联储制造业指数由32.31降至19.51→区域制造业扩张速度放缓→美国有色金属需求预期承压。",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续调查修订本期指数，或全国制造业订单和产出数据反向走强。",
"source_urls": ["https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFSBCACTIVITYMFG"],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "fed-us-20260824-h10",
"title": "美联储H.10广义美元指数周内降至118.062",
"event_type": "macro_release",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-24T20:15:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-24T20:15:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 1},
"confidence": 70,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"release_time_et": "2026-08-24 16:15",
"observation_window": "2026-08-17至2026-08-21",
"broad_dollar_index_base": "JAN06=100",
"broad_dollar_index": "118.814→118.062，周内变动-0.752，约-0.63%",
"usd_cny_2026_08_21": "6.7210",
"eur_usd_2026_08_21": "1.1684"
},
"transmission_chain": "广义美元指数周内由118.814降至118.062→美元计价金属的汇率折算压力减轻→有色金属价格获得弱支撑。",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续H.10数据显示美元指数反弹并收复118.814，或金属价格不再对汇率变化反应。",
"source_urls": ["https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/current/"],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "fed-us-20260824-h15",
"title": "美联储H.15于8月24日发布利率表",
"event_type": "macro_release",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-24T20:15:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-24T20:15:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 0},
"confidence": 70,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"release_time_et": "2026-08-24 16:15",
"release_date": "2026-08-24",
"latest_observation_date_in_xml": "2026-08-21",
"federal_funds_effective_rate_2026_08_21": "3.63%",
"10y_tcm_2026_08_21": "4.74%",
"30y_tcm_2026_08_21": "5.27%",
"xml_prepared": "2026-08-24T15:40:02Z"
},
"transmission_chain": "H.15按期发布但表内最新观测仍为8月21日→利率信息更新而当日利率边际变化未确认→对有色金属方向暂作中性。",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续官方XML补入8月24日观测并改变关键利率，或官方修订8月21日数据。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/current/default.htm",
"https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data/FRB_h15_xml.zip"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "mysteel-cu-20260824-concentrate_spot",
"title": "20%铜精矿现货价涨至20781元/吨",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-24T07:18:17Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-24T07:18:17Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 1},
"confidence": 88,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"report_time_bjt": "2026-08-24 15:18:17",
"20pct_clean_copper_concentrate_pricing_coefficient": "97%，持平",
"20pct_spot_price": "20781元/吨，较8月21日20751元/吨上涨30元/吨",
"23pct_pricing_coefficient": "98.2%",
"23pct_spot_price": "24194元/吨，较上一工作日上涨35元/吨"
},
"transmission_chain": "20%品位铜精矿现货价较前值上涨30元/吨→现货原料报价边际走强→铜冶炼原料成本和铜价获得支撑。",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续Mysteel修订本期品位、计价系数或现货价格，或连续报价回落并抹平本期涨幅。",
"source_urls": [
"https://tongjingkuang.mysteel.com/m/26082415/C4C2AD455E72ECC9.html",
"https://list1.m.mysteel.com/zhishi/20pwtjkjrjg.html",
"https://list1.m.mysteel.com/zhishi/gjtjkjgylb.html"
],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "mysteel-cu-20260824-shanghai_basis",
"title": "上海平水铜早盘报升水180—200元/吨",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-24T09:28:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-24T09:28:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 0},
"confidence": 85,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": {
"report_time_bjt": "2026-08-24 17:28",
"market": "上海电解铜现货",
"early_session_parity_copper_basis": "升水180—200元/吨",
"good_copper_basis": "金豚大板报至升水300元/吨",
"intraday_change": "日内现货升水走跌"
},
"transmission_chain": "上海平水铜早盘仍报升水180—200元/吨但日内升水走跌→现货相对期货的即时支撑减弱→沪铜近月价格短线偏中性。",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续同口径上海平水铜升水重新扩大，或来源修订早盘报价和日内变化方向。",
"source_urls": ["https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26082417/76B5D373745B6DA7.html"],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "mysteel-cu-20260824-spot_volume",
"title": "8月24日电解铜成交量降至2.34万吨",
"event_type": "supply_demand",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-25T00:58:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-25T00:58:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": -1},
"confidence": 88,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": {
"market_date": "2026-08-24",
"report_time_bjt": "2026-08-25 08:58",
"survey_scope": "国内56家电解铜交易企业",
"spot_volume": "2.34万吨",
"change_from_previous_trading_day": "减少0.25万吨",
"day_over_day_change": "-9.47%"
},
"transmission_chain": "56家企业电解铜现货成交量较前一交易日减少9.47%→现货需求成交转弱→铜现货升贴水和近月价格短线承压。",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续Mysteel修订成交量，或下一交易日成交量快速回升并收复本期降幅。",
"source_urls": ["https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26082508/474F5F85514C3239.html"],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "mysteel-ao-20260825-bid",
"title": "新疆氧化铝招标价2985—2990元/吨持平",
"event_type": "supply_demand",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-25T00:43:00Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-25T00:43:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 0},
"confidence": 86,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"report_time_bjt": "2026-08-25 08:43",
"market": "新疆氧化铝",
"latest_tender_delivery_price": "2985—2990元/吨，到厂价",
"change_from_previous_tender": "持平",
"overseas_transactions_2026_08_24": "马来西亚CIF 374美元/吨、东澳FOB 366.8美元/吨"
},
"transmission_chain": "新疆氧化铝最新招标价较上次持平→国内氧化铝现货定价暂未继续上修→氧化铝价格短线方向中性。",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续招标价跌破2985元/吨或升破2990元/吨，或来源修订本期国内外成交口径。",
"source_urls": ["https://youse.mysteel.com/a/26082508/02FA6BFAABA99A82.html"],
"source_tier": "B"
},
{
"event_id": "mmg-cu-20260824-las_bambas_restart",
"title": "Las Bambas于8月21日恢复采矿与选厂运营",
"event_type": "mine_disruption",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-24T13:26:13Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": -1},
"confidence": 82,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": {
"operation": "秘鲁Las Bambas铜矿采矿与选厂",
"restart_date": "2026-08-21",
"temporary_halt_start": "2026-08-19",
"accident_impact": "2人死亡、3人受伤",
"2026_guidance_change": "MMG未下调2026年铜产量指引",
"confirmation_report_time": "2026-08-24T13:26:13Z"
},
"transmission_chain": "Las Bambas在事故后于8月21日恢复采矿和选厂运营→临时停产造成的精矿供给缺口缩短→铜供应中断溢价回落。",
"invalidation_conditions": "Sunafil调查引发新的停产、监管限制或MMG下调2026年产量指引。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.mmg.com/content/uploads/2026/08/e_2026-08-19_Voluntary-LB-Fatalities.pdf",
"https://www.miningweekly.com/article/mmg-confirms-restart-of-operations-at-las-bambas-copper-mine-in-peru-2026-08-24",
"https://www.marketscreener.com/news/mmg-limited-resumes-operations-at-las-bambas-mine-and-process-plant-in-peru-ce7858dbdd88f62d"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "south32-cu-20260825-sierra_gorda_reserve",
"title": "South32将Sierra Gorda矿石储量上调61%",
"event_type": "supply_demand",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-24T23:28:42Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": -1},
"confidence": 90,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"announcement_date": "2026-08-25",
"ore_reserve": "1100百万吨，较前次+61%",
"average_total_copper_grade": "0.39%",
"copper_equivalent_grade": "0.46%",
"mineral_resource": "1870百万吨，较2026-06-30+8%",
"mine_life": "延长约5年至2045年",
"ownership": "South32 45%，KGHM 55%"
},
"transmission_chain": "Sierra Gorda矿石储量增加61%且寿命延至2045年→远期铜矿供给潜力提高→远期铜供需缺口预期收窄。",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续技术报告下调储量、品位或矿山寿命，或扩建项目未获批准并改变远期产量计划。",
"source_urls": [
"https://company-announcements.afr.com/asx/s32/cc93d9f8-a00b-11f1-99f7-4eb8beb98545.pdf",
"https://www.mining.com/south32-boosts-sierra-gorda-ore-reserve-estimate-by-61/"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "zijin-cu-20260824-kamoa_guidance",
"title": "紫金称Kamoa洪水令2026铜目标承压",
"event_type": "mine_disruption",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-24T15:10:25Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 2},
"confidence": 78,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"report_time_utc": "2026-08-24T15:10:25Z",
"project": "刚果（金）Kamoa-Kakula",
"zijin_project_interest": "略高于44%",
"zijin_2026_mined_copper_target": "120万吨",
"zijin_share_of_kamoa_2026_reduction_max": "57000吨",
"ivanhoe_revised_2026_project_guidance": "290000—330000吨，原指引380000—420000吨",
"official_h1_mined_copper": "53.4万吨"
},
"transmission_chain": "Kamoa洪水与爬产不及预期令紫金权益产量最多减少5.7万吨→2026年铜精矿供给增量下修→铜供需缺口和价格上行风险增加。",
"invalidation_conditions": "Kamoa恢复产能并上调年度指引，或官方修订项目权益、产量目标和减量数字。",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.mining.com/web/zijin-says-copper-target-under-pressure-after-congo-mine-flood/",
"https://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0821/2026082101282_c.pdf"
],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "nea-cu-20260824-charging_infrastructure",
"title": "全国充电设施总量同比增长41.9%",
"event_type": "infrastructure_demand",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"event_time_utc": null,
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-24T16:52:51Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 1},
"confidence": 95,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"data_as_of": "2026-07-31",
"total_charging_facilities": "2368.3万个（枪），同比+41.9%",
"public_facilities": "509.9万个，同比+21.3%",
"public_rated_total_power": "2.55亿千瓦",
"private_facilities": "1858.4万个，同比+48.8%",
"private_registered_power_capacity": "1.60亿千伏安",
"page_pubdate": "2026-08-24T16:52:51Z"
},
"transmission_chain": "充电设施总量同比增长41.9%且私人设施增长48.8%→充换电设备和配电网扩容用铜需求增加→中期铜需求获得支撑。",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续国家能源局修订设施数量或增速，或充电设施建设放缓并减少配电网投资。",
"source_urls": ["https://www.nea.gov.cn/20260824/b25f8e0297e54813964139f98ac601c8/c.html"],
"source_tier": "A"
},
{
"event_id": "ndrc-cu-20260824-grid_coordination",
"title": "发改委提出新型电网2+3+N协调机制",
"event_type": "infrastructure_demand",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"event_time_utc": "2026-08-24T10:21:51Z",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-24T10:21:51Z",
"asset_keys": ["NONFERROUS"],
"direction_score": {"NONFERROUS": 1},
"confidence": 90,
"horizon": "weeks",
"raw_facts": {
"report_time_bjt": "2026-08-24 18:21:51",
"coordination_mechanism": "2+3+N",
"participants": "2家电网、3家电信运营商、N家算力相关企业",
"meeting_date": "2026-08-19",
"two_heavy_projects_meeting_date": "2026-08-20"
},
"transmission_chain": "新型电网被纳入2+3+N重大项目协调机制→电网与算力基建项目协同推进→电力设备和铜需求预期获得支撑。",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续官方文件取消该协调机制、下调项目投资安排，或项目落地进度明显低于预期。",
"source_urls": ["https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/fggz/202608/t20260824_1407162.html"],
"source_tier": "A"
}
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