A Little Conceptual

June 12, 2026. Three things were already priced before they happened.

SPCX opened on Nasdaq at $135 — but crypto perpetual futures had been trading the stock at $161–182 for days. Oversubscribed four-to-one. Morningstar's fair value: $63. The price was discovered before the stock existed. 1

Then there's the Iran deal. Trump called it "a very strong memorandum of understanding that is a little conceptual." Brent crude dropped to $88.55 — a two-month low, down more than 5% — on a deal that Iran hadn't signed, that Netanyahu wasn't told about, and that the IRGC cast doubt on within hours. By Friday morning, drones were still going after ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Thirty-plus deal announcements in three months. The market keeps buying every single one. 2 3

And in five days Kevin Warsh chairs his first FOMC. PPI came in at 6.5% year-over-year — hottest since 2022. Core CPI surprised soft at 0.2% month-over-month. Markets are pricing a hold; the real question is the dot plot. "Watch the dot plot not the headline," as the thread said. 4

The song is about the spread between the announcement and the thing announced. The market learned to trade the announcer. By the time anything is officially true, the price has already moved. It's a little conceptual. So is the peace.

[Verse 1] Sixty-three was Morningstar's honest guess One-thirty-five was where the bankers blessed The price is set before the stock breaks through The auction ended before the auction comes

[Chorus] It's a little conceptual A little theoretical The deal is signed before the ink The stock is priced before you think We're trading the announcer not the fact The market moved and isn't coming back

[Verse 2] Thirty times the president said it's done Drones were still in the air when Brent dropped five The peace is priced for deals that won't arrive A memorandum someone called brand-new

[Chorus] It's a little conceptual A little theoretical The deal is signed before the ink The strait reopens in a wink We're trading the announcer not the fact The market moved and isn't coming back

[Bridge] Five more days to Warsh's first call PPI at six-point-five since fall Watch the dot plot not the headline The dot plot is the thing that's left unsaid

[Chorus] It's a little conceptual A little theoretical The deal is signed before the ink The stock is priced before you think We're trading the announcer not the fact The market moved and isn't coming back

[Outro] A little conceptual The announcer moved the market A little conceptual and that's a fact