
BKV: four filters pass, the gas-to-power-to-carbon integrated play
BKV Corporation (NYSE: BKV) is Pass #22 — all four hard filters cleared. Market cap $2.74B, TTM revenue growth +52–125% (two TTM windows, methodology explained), PEG 0.55, OCF +$298M positive. BKV is the series' first pure-play natural gas company, operating a vertically integrated platform from Barnett Shale E&P through 75%-owned Texas gas-fired power plants (Temple I & II, 1,499 MW combined) to a four-project CCUS pipeline targeting 1.5M metric tons/year by 2028. The core analytical tension: 11 analysts unanimously rate Strong Buy with 38–40% upside to a $34.67–$35.18 average target, while every senior officer has been a systematic seller (~$12M+ in combined sales with zero purchases) and TTM FCF is –$449M as CapEx ramps to $570M–$740M in FY2026. The single cleanest binary catalyst is an unannounced Power Purchase Agreement with a data center or hyperscaler counterparty.

Hard filter check
| Filter | Threshold | Reported value | Source(s) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market cap | < $10B | $2.74B | iTick, Finviz, StockAnalysis | ✅ Pass |
| TTM revenue growth | > 30% | +52.41% (Finviz) / +125.21% (StockAnalysis) | Finviz, StockAnalysis | ✅ Pass |
| PEG ratio | < 1.0 | 0.55 (Forward P/E 12.12 ÷ 5Y EPS growth 22.05%) | Finviz | ✅ Pass |
| Operating cash flow | Positive | +$298.24M TTM | StockAnalysis | ✅ Pass |
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E | 12.12× | Finviz (StockAnalysis: 13.26×) |
| EPS 5-year growth estimate | 22.05% | Finviz |
| PEG (Finviz method) | 0.55 | Fwd P/E 12.12 ÷ 22.05% |
| TTM revenue (Finviz basis) | $1.05B | Finviz |
| TTM revenue (StockAnalysis, through Q1 2026) | $1.36B | StockAnalysis |
| TTM OCF | $298.24M | StockAnalysis |
| TTM CapEx | $747.64M | StockAnalysis |
| TTM FCF | –$449.40M | Derived |
What BKV does
- Upstream (E&P): The largest natural gas producer by gross operated volume in the Barnett Shale (north Texas), producing 925.0 MMcfe/d in Q1 2026. Production is 81% natural gas, 19% natural gas liquids. The Barnett Shale position was significantly expanded through the September 2025 acquisition of Bedrock Energy Partners' assets for ~$370M, adding 97,000 net acres, 108 MMcfe/d of production, ~800 Bcfe of proved reserves, and 50 new drill locations. 3
- Midstream: Gathering, processing, and transportation infrastructure supporting the Barnett Shale position.
- Power generation: A 75% ownership stake in the BKV-BPP Power Joint Venture, which owns Temple I (752 MW) and Temple II (747 MW) combined-cycle gas and steam turbine plants in ERCOT's North Zone in Temple, Texas. BKV increased its stake from 50% to 75% by acquiring the additional 25% from Banpu Power US Corporation on January 30, 2026, for ~$115.1M cash plus 5,315,390 shares of BKV common stock. Q1 2026 generation: 1,981 GWh (+24.7% YoY), with capacity factors of 64.5% (Temple I) and 60.3% (Temple II). 4
- CCUS (Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage): The "closed loop" strategy — capturing CO₂ emitted from the Barnett Shale production process and sequestering it underground via Class VI injection wells. Barnett Zero (operational since November 2023) has sequestered 347,400 metric tons of CO₂ life-to-date through Q1 2026. Cotton Cove achieved first injection in April 2026 (~32,000 MT/yr capacity). Eagle Ford is on track for first injection before June 30, 2026 (~90,000 MT/yr). The company targets a 1.5 million MT/year injection run-rate by 2028. 5
Eight quarters of revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY growth | Net income to BKV | Diluted EPS | Adj. EBITDAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 (original) | $78.8M | — | –$78.7M | –$0.93 | n/a (pre-JV consolidation) |
| Q1 2025 (restated) | $176.1M | — | — | — | — |
| Q3 2025 | $277.9M | n/a | $76.9M | $0.90 | $72.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $330.1M | n/a | $70.4M | $0.75 | n/a |
| FY2025 | $1.01B | +73.64% YoY | $173.1M | $1.98 | $390.0M (combined) |
| Q1 2026 | $432.8M | +145.84% YoY (vs restated) | $44.1M | $0.42 | $112.0M |
Valuation
| Metric | Finviz | StockAnalysis | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing P/E | 7.59× | 7.70× | Well below S&P 500 ~26×; reflects high trailing earnings relative to $25.06 price |
| Forward P/E | 12.12× | 13.26× | Below S&P 500 ~22× forward; market pricing in earnings decline |
| P/S (TTM) | 2.60× | 2.74× | — |
| P/B | 1.24× | 1.24× | — |
| P/OCF | 9.00× | 9.17× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.92× | 6.24× | Discrepancy from different EBITDA definitions; SA uses $597.9M EBITDA (EV $3.73B ÷ 6.24); Finviz uses ~$273M narrower definition |
| EV/Sales | 3.61× | 3.73× | — |
| FCF yield | –16.43% | — | Negative due to $747.64M CapEx |
| Earnings yield | — | 10.88% | Trailing |
Balance sheet
| Metric | Value (Mar 31, 2026) | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Total debt | $1.266B | $500M 2030 Senior Notes (7.5%) + $100M RBL draw + $635.4M Power segment facilities (Temple I & II loans) |
| Cash & equivalents | $288.54M | — |
| Net debt | ~$978M | — |
| Total liquidity | $973.5M | $288.5M cash + $685.0M undrawn RBL availability |
| Debt/Equity | 0.57× (Finviz) / 0.56× (SA) | — |
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.14× | Within typical E&P range |
| Interest coverage | 12.55× | Strong debt-service capacity |
| Net leverage ratio | 2.02× | Up from 0.92× at Dec 31, 2025 (pre-JV consolidation) |
| Current ratio | 1.31× | — |
| Working capital | $135.41M | — |
| Altman Z-Score | 1.44 | Below 1.81 distress zone; common for capital-intensive E&P companies |
| Piotroski F-Score | 7 | Above median; positive quality signal |
| Book value/share | $20.27 | — |
Growth catalysts
| Project | Status | Expected capacity | 45Q credit basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barnett Zero | Operational (Nov 2023) | ~35,800 MT/yr current pace | $85/ton (geological storage) |
| Cotton Cove | First injection April 2026 | ~32,000 MT/yr | $85/ton |
| Eagle Ford | On track for injection before Jun 30, 2026 | ~90,000 MT/yr | $85/ton |
| East Texas | FID December 2025 | ~70,000 MT/yr | $85/ton |
Key risks
| Risk | Severity | Impact path |
|---|---|---|
| Negative free cash flow | 🔴 High | TTM FCF –$449.40M. CapEx guidance of $570M–$740M in FY2026 exceeds $298.24M TTM OCF by $272M–$442M. Sustained negative FCF requires continued equity issuance or debt draws, compounding dilution and leverage. Q1 2026 alone: OCF $72.0M vs accrued CapEx $118.6M. |
| Systematic insider selling | 🔴 High | CEO Kalnin sold ~$11.1M in shares from Nov 2025 to Mar 2026 (100K shares at $30.06 on Mar 25, 100K at $27.13 on Nov 11, 100K at $26.16 on Nov 10, and others). President Jacobsen sold 25K shares at $26.89 on Jun 1, 2026 ($672K). CFO Tameron sold 7,300 shares at $29.71 on Mar 27, 2026. CLO Larrick has sold systematically every 1–2 months since July 2025. No insider purchases detected. 1 |
| High short interest | 🟡 Medium | 14.97% of float short (4.75M shares), 5.1 days to cover. Short thesis centers on negative FCF, EPS decline outlook, and heavy dilution. A PPA announcement or CCUS milestone could trigger a short squeeze; a guidance cut could validate the bears. |
| Share dilution track record | 🟡 Medium | Shares outstanding increased 20.20% YoY to 109.17M, through two follow-on offerings (Dec 2025: 6.9M shares / $170.1M net; Mar 2026: 5.55M company shares / $186.2M net) plus 5.32M shares issued for the Power JV acquisition. The $100M share buyback announced December 2025 offsets some dilution but represents less than 4% of market cap at current prices. |
| PPA execution timeline | 🟡 Medium | The power expansion investment thesis depends on securing Power Purchase Agreements at economics that justify $280M–$340M in FY2026 power CapEx. No PPA has been signed as of Q1 2026. If hyperscaler demand proves slower to materialize or competitors sign agreements first, BKV may be holding built capacity at spot ERCOT prices for longer than planned. |
| Altman Z-Score and EPS outlook | 🟡 Medium | Z-Score 1.44 (distress zone). Consensus projects EPS declining 21.5% annually over 3 years — meaning the trailing P/E of 7.59× will drift higher as earnings normalize from elevated FY2025 levels. At declining EPS and a forward P/E of 12.12×, the stock is not as cheap as the trailing multiple implies. |
| Natural gas price sensitivity | 🟢 Low-medium | BKV's upstream segment is a natural gas E&P play. Gas price weakness would compress upstream margins and OCF, increasing the gap between operating cash flow and CapEx. The hedge book partially mitigates 2026 exposure (~121.5B MMBtu hedged at $3.86/MMBtu), but the 2027–2029 book has lower coverage. |
| Controlling shareholder overhang | 🟢 Low-medium | Banpu North America Corporation (Thai parent Banpu Public Company) controls ~63.4% of BKV shares (69.19M out of 109.17M outstanding). Banpu's interests as a major shareholder may not fully align with public minority shareholders, particularly on capital allocation decisions regarding the Power JV and equity offerings. A Schedule 13D was filed February 6, 2026. |
Price action and technicals
Analyst consensus: Strong Buy, $34–$37 average target
| Firm | Analyst | Rating | Price target | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truist Securities | Gabe Daoud | Buy | $37.00 | Mar 24, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Lloyd Byrne | Buy | $35.00 | Apr 15, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Tim Rezvan | Overweight | $35.00 | Apr 2, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Stephen Richardson | Outperform | $33.00 | Apr 6, 2026 |
| Citi | Scott Gruber | Buy | $33.00 | Jun 11, 2026 (cut from $36) |
| Roth | Leo Mariani | Buy | $31.00 | — |
Insider and institutional ownership
Upcoming catalysts
| Catalyst | Expected timing | What to watch |
|---|---|---|
| Eagle Ford CCUS first injection | Before June 30, 2026 | Confirmation that the third CCUS project has commenced; ~90,000 MT/yr capacity adds to the 45Q credit revenue stream |
| Power Purchase Agreement signing | Unknown; process ongoing | Single largest re-rating event; data center / hyperscaler deal at contracted economics would validate the $280M–$340M power CapEx spend |
| Q2 2026 earnings | ~August 2026 | Sequential production vs. guidance (925–975 MMcfe/d), CapEx burn rate ($155M–$215M guided), Power Adj. EBITDAX trajectory, any PPA update |
| FEED study completion (CO₂ capture at Temple) | 2026 | Validates technical feasibility of capturing emissions from the gas turbines directly; key for the long-term "closed loop" thesis |
| Summer ERCOT power demand | June–August 2026 | Heat-driven demand in Texas directly benefits BKV's Temple plants via spark spread expansion |
| $100M share buyback program | Ongoing (authorized Dec 2025) | Partial offset to dilution; pace of actual repurchases vs. authorization |
| FY2026 full-year results | ~February 2027 | Definitive read on whether the Power JV was accretive in its first full year of 75% ownership |
The bottom line on Pass #22
参考来源
- 1BKV Corp Stock Quote — Finviz
- 2BKV Corporation Statistics & Valuation — StockAnalysis
- 3BKV Closes Bedrock Acquisition — BusinessWire
- 4BKV Closes Power JV Acquisition — BusinessWire
- 5BKV Q1 2026 Earnings Release — BusinessWire
- 6BKV Revenue 2020–2026 — StockAnalysis
- 7BKV Q4 & FY2025 Earnings — BusinessWire
- 8BKV Q3 2025 Earnings — BKV Investor Relations
- 9Damodaran EV Multiples by Sector — NYU Stern
- 10Simply Wall St: BKV Analysis
- 11StockAnalysis: BKV Balance Sheet
- 12BKV Analyst Ratings — Benzinga
- 13BKV Analyst Coverage — BKV Investor Relations
- 14SEC EDGAR: BKV Corp CIK 1838406
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