May 22 settlement recap — Warsh sworn in, Waller shocks hawks; oil recovers on Iran uranium deadlock; gold logs second weekly loss

May 22 settlement recap — Warsh sworn in, Waller shocks hawks; oil recovers on Iran uranium deadlock; gold logs second weekly loss

WTI edged up +0.26% to $96.60 and Brent +0.94% to $103.54 as Khamenei's uranium directive and a Ukraine drone strike on Yaroslavl erased Iran deal optimism. Gold fell −0.37% to $4,523.20 — a second weekly loss — after Fed Governor Waller warned of a possible rate hike just before Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair. Corn slipped −0.11% to 463.25¢ while soybeans gained +0.19% to 1,196.50¢. Copper led at +1.37% (~$6.3805/lb) on rising Yangshan premium. University of Michigan sentiment hit a historic low of 48.2. CME closed Monday for Memorial Day.

Commodity Price Movement Recap
Commodity Price Movement Recap@NeoDrop Official
2026/5/23 · 6:30
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Friday's session closed a mixed week for commodities: crude oil rebounded modestly as Iran's uranium standoff and fresh drone strikes on Russian refineries shelved any deal-driven selloff, gold slid for a second consecutive week under Waller's rate-hike warning and the looming Warsh era, and grains held onto modest gains ahead of a three-day weekend. CME is closed Monday, May 25, for Memorial Day — the next settlement prints Tuesday.

Quick-scan: May 22 front-month settlements

ContractSymbolSettlementDay chgDay chg %Prior close
Gold (Jun'26)GCM26$4,523.20 / oz−$16.60−0.37%$4,539.80
WTI Crude (Jul'26)CLN26$96.60 / bbl+$0.25+0.26%$96.35
Brent Crude (Jul'26)BZCN26$103.54 / bbl+$0.96+0.94%$102.58
Corn (Jul'26)ZCN26463.25 ¢/bu−0.50 ¢−0.11%463.75 ¢
Soybeans (Jul'26)ZSN261,196.50 ¢/bu+2.25 ¢+0.19%1,194.25 ¢
Copper (Jul'26)*HGN26~$6.38 / lb+$0.08+1.37%$6.2570
*Copper: HG00 continuous contract; HGN26 front-month contract-level data unavailable at publish time.
Thin pre-holiday liquidity shaped the tape throughout the session. WTI volume hit 241,610 contracts — 179% of its 65-day average — driven by Hormuz headline whiplash rather than sustained directional conviction 1. Gold volume was also elevated at 106,230 contracts, 113% of the 65-day average 2.

Macro overlay: new Fed chair, hawkish governor, record-low confidence

Three macro events hit the tape simultaneously on Friday morning — a convergence that explains why gold and risk assets spent most of the session searching for direction.
Kevin Warsh sworn in as the 11th Fed Chair. At the White House East Room, Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas administered the oath to Warsh — the first Fed chair sworn in at the White House since Alan Greenspan in 1987 3. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and NEC Director Kevin Hassett were among those present 3. Warsh pledged: "I will lead a reform-oriented Federal Reserve, learning from past successes and mistakes, both escaping static frameworks and models and upholding clear standards of integrity and performance." 4 His first FOMC meeting is June 16–17 3. Jerome Powell stays on as a Fed governor — the first former chair to do so in nearly 80 years 4.
Trump declared at the ceremony that he wants Warsh "totally independent," adding: "Don't look at me, don't look at anybody, just do your own thing and do a great job." 3 Hours later at a rally in Suffern, New York, Trump called Powell a "rotten head of the Fed" and said interest rates would come down "very quickly" under Warsh 3. The two signals — ceremonial independence, then explicit rate pressure — landed in the same news cycle and left markets with no clean read on the policy trajectory. Trump also told the audience that "The Fed lost its way in recent years," citing its involvement in climate policy and DEI initiatives as a distraction from its core mandate 4.
Waller's pre-swearing-in hawkish shot. About an hour before the White House ceremony, Fed Governor Christopher Waller delivered remarks in Germany stating the Fed should "hold rates steady for the near term," and warned that if inflation continued to run above target, the next move could be a hike, not a cut 5. CME FedWatch placed the probability of a June cut at just 2.6%, with the market broadly pricing 2027 as the earliest window for easing — and even factoring in a hike scenario 5.
Consumer sentiment at a historic low. The University of Michigan's final May consumer sentiment reading came in at 48.2 — below every prior crisis low including the 2008 financial crisis, COVID, and the 2022 inflation surge 4. Twelve-month inflation expectations rose to 4.8%; long-run expectations moved to 3.9% 6. The savings-rate intent index fell 10 points in May, its biggest one-month drop since September 2024 6. Gasoline at $4.55/gallon — the highest Memorial Day-weekend pump price since 2022 — was cited spontaneously by 57% of respondents as a drag on personal finances 6.
The DXY held around 99.30 (+0.09%), the 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.584%, and the 30-year at 5.088% 5. The 2-year Treasury yield reached 4.14%, a 15-month high 6.
The European Commission cut its 2026 Eurozone growth forecast from 1.4% to 0.9% and raised its inflation forecast from 1.9% to 3.0%, with Germany's growth estimate halved to 0.6% 6. ECB President Christine Lagarde said long-term inflation expectations remain "broadly well anchored" near 2% despite the Iran war energy shock 6.
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Crude oil: Khamenei's uranium veto and Ukrainian drone strikes reverse the slide

WTI (CLN26) settled at $96.60/bbl (+$0.25, +0.26%), recovering from an early low of $94.73 before fading from an intraday high of $99.43 1. Brent (BZCN26) closed at $103.54/bbl (+$0.96, +0.94%), range $101.38–$106.35 7. The Brent-WTI spread widened to ~$6.94/bbl 7.
On a weekly basis the picture is starker: WTI fell 8.37% and Brent fell 5.48% for the week 8 — a hangover from Monday's plunge on Trump's announcement that US strikes on Iran were cancelled. Friday's rebound clawed back less than a tenth of that weekly loss.

The uranium veto

Thursday evening, Reuters reported — citing two senior Iranian sources — that Ayatollah Khamenei had issued a directive barring the export of Iran's near-weapons-grade enriched uranium 9. The directive also indicated Iran may consider diluting some of its stockpile under IAEA supervision as a compromise, but would not surrender the material 9. Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei confirmed Friday that nuclear issues are "not on the table" in negotiations, saying any attempt to press details on Iran's high-enriched uranium would make a deal impossible 10. The directive triggered the intraday WTI spike of more than 3% 8.
ING strategists observed that markets are "still searching for signs of progress in a potential deal between the US and Iran. While there are signs of optimism, uncertainty reigns." 9 Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group was blunter: "We have so many headlines back and forth, it's hard to keep up. The story now is Iran will deliver the uranium for the lifting of sanctions. But they keep changing the news before the ink is dry on the newspaper." 8

Hormuz toll standoff escalates

Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Iran's proposed Hormuz tolling system "unacceptable" and said it "would make a diplomatic deal unfeasible": "No one in the world is in favor of a tolling system. It can't happen." 11 Trump echoed that position Friday, saying Hormuz "must remain open and free" 9. Five Gulf states — UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia among them — formally filed IMO objections to Iran's proposed "Persian Gulf Authority" 12. CENTCOM reported USS Abraham Lincoln's carrier strike group maintaining "maximum readiness" in the Arabian Sea while enforcing a blockade of Iranian ports 9.
On the diplomatic track, Pakistani Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir arrived in Tehran Friday for mediation talks; a Qatari negotiating team also reached Tehran the same day 10. Secretary of State Rubio, speaking after NATO ministerial talks in Sweden, acknowledged "some progress" while cautioning: "I wouldn't exaggerate it. I wouldn't diminish it. There's more work to be done. We're not there yet. I hope we get there." 10 Iran's Tasnim news agency cited a source saying progress had been made on some issues but a deal would not be reached until all disputes were resolved 10.
One concrete data point on supply access: Japan's supertanker Idemitsu Maru — carrying 2 million barrels of Saudi crude — is set to arrive at Nagoya on May 25, making it the first Middle East crude cargo via Hormuz to reach Japan since the war began on February 28 13.

Ukraine's fourth strike on Yaroslavl

Overnight Friday, Ukrainian drones struck the Yaroslavl refinery (Gazprom Neft, 300,000 bbl/day capacity) for the fourth time this month, while simultaneously hitting Rosneft's Syzran plant 14. NASA satellite imagery detected a heat anomaly at the Yaroslavl site 14. President Zelensky confirmed the strike, stating: "We are bringing the war back home — to Russia — and that's only fair." 14 An estimated 25% of Russian refining capacity is now offline or impaired from the cumulative drone campaign 14.

Supply and inventory context

The EIA report for the week ending May 15 (released May 20) showed commercial crude inventories at 445 million barrels (−7.86 million barrels week-over-week) and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at 374.175 million barrels (−9.9 million barrels week-over-week) 8. Goldman Sachs estimated the Iran conflict is drawing visible inventories at 8.7 million barrels per day in May, the fastest rate Goldman has recorded 12. IEA Director General Fatih Birol said the IEA stands ready to release additional reserves if needed, and had previously warned that oil markets could enter a "red zone" in July–August 8.
OPEC+'s eight core members are expected to approve ~188,000 bbl/day in July output increases at their June 7 meeting, though actual delivery from several members remains disrupted by the conflict 8. Tamas Varga of PVM Oil Associates noted that "optimism for a relatively swift ceasefire and bearish commentary when Brent approached $110 prevented oil from bouncing back more materially" 15. The next EIA weekly petroleum status report is delayed to May 28 due to Memorial Day 8.
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Gold: Waller's rate-hike warning ends two-session win streak

Gold (GCM26) settled at $4,523.20/oz (−$16.60, −0.37%), snapping back from an open of $4,544.20 to a session low of $4,488.00 before recovering slightly 2. The WSJ reported a front-month Comex settlement of $4,521.00 (−0.4%), its second consecutive weekly decline; the week's loss stands at −0.76% 16. Gold open interest stood at 135,311 contracts 2. From the 52-week high of $5,477.79, gold has now pulled back 17.46% 5.
The proximate catalyst was Waller's hawkish message from Germany, which landed before markets opened. Investing.com analyst Itai Smidt noted the structural tell in gold's behavior: "The fact that XAU/USD is still trading at $4,521 rather than sitting hundreds of dollars lower with the curve sounding this hawkish is the structural tell. Something else is doing the heavy lifting under the price." 5 That "something else" is central bank demand. Smidt also argued that central bank reserve managers "are not trading the daily Fed commentary or the weekly ETF flow report. They are reweighting against a multi-decade shift in which the dollar's share of global reserves has been declining and gold's share has been rising." 5
World Gold Council Q1 2026 data shows central banks net-bought 244 tonnes (+3% year-over-year), continuing a multi-quarter buying streak 5, while total gold demand including OTC reached 1,230.9 tonnes (+2% YoY), the highest Q1 figure in the WGC's dataset 5. Gold coin and bar demand hit 474 tonnes (+42% YoY), the second-highest quarterly print on record 5. Against this: global gold ETF net inflows were only 62 tonnes in Q1, down 73% from 230 tonnes in Q1 2025, with US-listed funds registering outflows in March 5. The divergence — central banks and Asian households buying physical, Western ETF money stepping back — explains why gold is consolidating rather than breaking down despite a hawkish rate backdrop.
Smidt offered a scenario that would sharply change that picture: "A clean Hormuz reopening would be the single most plausible event that pulls $200 to $300 out of the spot price in a hurry." 5
On the 4-hour chart, gold formed a doji consolidation pattern with RSI at 46 — neither committed to a directional break 17. Key support sits at $4,488–$4,441; first meaningful resistance at $4,577 17.
Copper (HG00 continuous) closed at ~$6.3805/lb (+$0.0865, +1.37%), the best-performing metal in the tracked basket Friday 2. The Yangshan copper premium — the surcharge Chinese importers pay over LME prices for bonded-warehouse material in Shanghai — rose to $73/tonne, its highest since mid-April, signaling incremental demand improvement in China's industrial sector 5.

Grains: export sales and ethanol floor the tape into the holiday

Corn (ZCN26) edged down to 463.25¢/bu (−0.50¢, −0.11%), but July corn is up 7.5¢ on the week 18. Soybeans (ZSN26) added +2.25¢ to 1,196.50¢/bu (+0.19%), with July beans up 19.5¢ on the week 18.
The floor under Friday's action came from three converging demand signals.
Daily export sales. On May 21, exporters sold nearly 24 million bushels of US corn (~609,000 metric tons) plus 252,000 metric tons of soybean meal 19. StoneX chief commodities economist Arlan Suderman said the data "combines with strong biofuel demand to provide support ahead of the weekend." 19 This followed last week's USDA weekly export sales report showing corn at a 4-month high of 2.125 million metric tons — 71% above the 4-week average 20.
Ethanol production. EIA data released this week showed ethanol output at a 5-week high of 1.11 million barrels per day (annualized 16.22 billion gallons) 21 — 7.2% above year-ago levels and 9.7% above the five-year average 21. At 2.8 gallons of ethanol per bushel of corn, that annualized rate implies ~5.79 billion bushels of corn demand 21.
China trade framework. The White House announcement from May 17 that China committed to buying at least $17 billion per year in US agricultural products through 2028 — plus 25 million metric tons of soybeans annually — continues to provide background support 22. NDSU economists estimated the combined pledges represent $28–$30 billion in annual ag exports to China 22. But traders remain cautious: CoBank grain and oilseed economist Tanner Ehmke noted, "Leading into this, there was hope that something would be inked and finalized. Unfortunately, we haven't seen anything from that vantage point yet." 23 For context: US agricultural exports to China ran at just $8.4 billion in the 12 months ending February 2026 — the lowest since 2007, according to an NDSU analysis that tallied retaliatory-tariff losses at $14.9 billion 24.
Darin Johnson, president of the Minnesota Soybean Growers Association, reflected the broader farmer sentiment: "The one thing that has been consistent with trade with China, unfortunately, has been the inconsistency, and we hope that, moving forward, that we can get some consistency." 23
Weather was constructive but not uniformly so. Widespread rainfall covered the Plains, Corn Belt, and Southeast on Friday, with the eastern delta and Tennessee Valley expected to receive 2–4 inches through May 28 25. DTN meteorologist John Baranick noted: "The direction the drought is moving is more important than the classification category and all of these areas should be on the improving side through the end of May." 25 The caveat: hard red winter wheat (HRW) — the high-protein winter wheat variety grown on the southern Plains — has already sustained irreversible damage 26. The US winter wheat good/excellent rating stands at 27%, a century low as of the May 19 USDA crop progress report, and the rains arrived too late to change that 26. Corn planting was 76% complete and soybeans 67% as of May 18, both ahead of average pace 26.
South America: the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) — Argentina's primary crops estimates body — last revised its Argentina corn estimate on May 21 to 64 million metric tons (+3 MMT versus its prior estimate), and soybeans to 50.1 MMT (+1.5 MMT) 27. Both are above USDA's May WASDE figures of 59 MMT for corn and 51 MMT for soybeans 27. The Rosario Exchange's corn estimate sits even higher at 68 MMT 27. No new BAGE report was published Friday; the next is expected May 28. Brownfield Ag News noted that concern about US winter wheat conditions appears already priced in, with traders "cautious about pushing prices above non-traditional buyer demand levels" 28.
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Weekend positioning: what to watch through the holiday

CME is closed Monday, May 25. The next commodity settlements are Tuesday, May 27. Several threads will be unresolved when markets reopen:
  • Iran nuclear talks: The uranium directive and Baghaei's nuclear red-line language indicate the diplomatic gap is wider than headline optimism suggests. Any weekend development — deal leak or breakdown — will move Tuesday's oil open materially. John Kilduff of Again Capital observed: "I think we're very much subject to the headlines. We seem headed for a resolution, but the level of clarity is spectacular." 8
  • Warsh's first policy signal: Markets will parse any weekend interview or published remarks from Warsh for signals on whether his "reform-oriented" Fed points toward tighter or looser policy. He inherits a FOMC that split 8-4 on hawkish votes at the last meeting 3; his first chair vote is June 17.
  • Gold technicals: The doji at $4,523 leaves gold balanced between the $4,441 support floor (underpinned by central bank buy interest) and $4,577 resistance. A Hormuz escalation over the weekend tips gold up; a credible deal signal pulls it toward the $4,441–$4,350 range Smidt identified as the next support zone 5.
  • Grain weather: The NWS 6–10 day outlook (May 27–31) calls for near-to-above-normal temperatures and precipitation across most of the country 25. Corn Belt conditions remain favorable for crop development, though the southern Plains HRW crop damage is already locked in.
  • EIA data delay: The weekly petroleum status report normally due Wednesday is delayed to May 28 8. Combined with three days of no CME trading, early Tuesday energy pricing will have an unusually long information gap to absorb.
Cover photo: oil tanker at twilight. Photo by Chengxin Zhao via Pexels.

参考来源

  1. 1MarketWatch — Crude Oil Jul 2026 Overview
  2. 2MarketWatch — Gold Jun 2026 Overview
  3. 3CNBC — Trump swears Kevin Warsh in as Fed chair
  4. 4CNN — Kevin Warsh sworn in as Fed chair
  5. 5Investing.com — Gold consolidation tests structural bull case
  6. 6Neil's Newsletter — As We Approach the Open 5/22/26
  7. 7MarketWatch — Brent Crude Jul 2026 Overview
  8. 8Reuters — Oil prices settle higher on slow progress in US-Iran peace talks
  9. 9CNBC — US and Iran at odds over uranium enrichment, Strait of Hormuz tolls
  10. 10Reuters — Rubio sees progress in Iran talks, more work to be done
  11. 11SAFETY4SEA — US warns against proposed toll system in the Strait of Hormuz
  12. 12Aegis Hedging — Crude rises as Gulf countries push back on Iran's authority
  13. 13OilPrice.com — Japan to welcome first crude cargo via Hormuz since war began
  14. 14OilPrice.com — Ukraine hits 300,000-bpd Gazprom Neft refinery in overnight drone strike
  15. 15CNBC — Oil prices post weekly loss as US and Iran signal deal progress
  16. 16WSJ — Comex gold ends the week 0.76% lower at $4,521.00
  17. 17FXStreet via Mitrade — Gold price forecast: XAU/USD looks for direction above $4,500
  18. 18Barchart — Futures market overview
  19. 19StoneX — Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for May 22
  20. 20StoneX — Perspective: Morning Commentary for May 22
  21. 21RFD-TV — Ethanol output rises as corn demand signals strengthen
  22. 22High Plains Journal / Agri-Pulse — China commits to additional US ag purchases
  23. 23Minnesota Star Tribune / News Tribune — Farmers have hope but seek clarity on China trade deal
  24. 24DTN Progressive Farmer — Report shows ag exports to China hit lowest level since 2007
  25. 25DTN Progressive Farmer — Heavy rain falling on drought areas through end of May
  26. 26AgroLatam — US rainfall brings relief to drought-stricken farms
  27. 27Grain Price News — Argentina corn 2025-26
  28. 28Brownfield Ag News — Soybeans corn decline further on weather planting paces
Commodity Price Movement Recap
Commodity Price Movement Recap

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