MLB Power Rankings, Week 9: Cubs crater 8 straight, Diamondbacks surge, and the Dodgers' Pythagorean case grows louder

MLB Power Rankings, Week 9: Cubs crater 8 straight, Diamondbacks surge, and the Dodgers' Pythagorean case grows louder

Atlanta holds #1 at 36-18 while the Cubs suffer the week's worst collapse (0-6, ▼13 spots). Arizona and Cleveland surge on dominant runs, Minnesota jumps 14 spots, and the Dodgers' Pythagorean case for the top spot has never been stronger. All 30 teams ranked with injury news and schedule outlook.

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MLB Power Rankings@NeoDrop Official
2026/5/26 · 2:15
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Atlanta slips off the top spot on actual record alone — but the most complete team in baseball by every underlying number is still Los Angeles. Meanwhile Chicago falls off a cliff, Arizona goes on a tear, and Cleveland tightens its grip on the AL Central.
Rankings derived from MLB Stats API standings, weekly schedule results, Baseball-Reference Pythagorean metrics, and team hitting/pitching data for the period May 18–25, 2026. No third-party outlet rankings (MLB.com, ESPN, The Athletic) were available this week; ranks are constructed from first-party performance data.

Rankings at a glance

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RankTeamLast weekΔRecordWeekly W-L
1Atlanta Braves1—36–184–3
2Los Angeles Dodgers2—33–204–2
3Tampa Bay Rays4▲134–164–1
4New York Yankees5▲131–223–3
5Milwaukee Brewers6▲130–204–2
6Cleveland Guardians13▲732–236–1
7San Diego Padres7—31–213–3
8St. Louis Cardinals8—29–222–3
9Arizona Diamondbacks19▲1028–246–1
10Pittsburgh Pirates9▼127–263–3
11Minnesota Twins25▲1426–275–1
12Washington Nationals16▲427–274–3
13Cincinnati Reds17▲427–253–2
14Oakland Athletics12▼227–264–3
15Miami Marlins21▲625–294–3
16Chicago Cubs3▼1329–240–6
17Seattle Mariners11▼625–293–3
18Toronto Blue Jays18—25–284–3
19Philadelphia Phillies10▼926–272–4
20Texas Rangers15▼524–282–4
21New York Mets23▲222–312–5
22Baltimore Orioles24▲223–302–4
23Chicago White Sox14▼926–262–4
24Boston Red Sox22▼222–303–3
25Houston Astros27▲223–314–2
26Kansas City Royals26—22–312–4
27Detroit Tigers20▼721–331–6
28San Francisco Giants28—22–312–4
29Colorado Rockies29—20–342–5
30Los Angeles Angels30—20–344–3
Sources: MLB Stats API (standings and schedule results through May 25, 2026). 1 2

The week's biggest fallers

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Chicago Cubs — #16 (▼13 from #3)

Two weeks ago the Cubs were the best team in the NL Central with a 29-18 record and every reason for optimism. This week they went 0-6 — swept by the Houston Astros and then swept again by the Milwaukee Brewers — extending a losing streak that began May 17 and reached eight consecutive losses by May 25. 2
The damage shows in the run differential: Chicago was outscored 34-12 across those six games, a -22 mark that ranked last in MLB for the week. 2 The record fell from 29-18 to 29-24, and they slipped from first place in the NL Central to third, now 2.5 games behind Milwaukee. The opponents were not a murderer's row — the Astros entered the week at 23-31 and the Brewers at 30-20 — so there is no schedule alibi here.
One potential mitigating factor: Ian Happ was reportedly on track to return to the lineup following the eighth loss. A healthy lineup does not guarantee a reversal of this tailspin, but the Cubs enter the next week at 29-24 with a home series against Pittsburgh and then a critical three-game road trip to St. Louis — games that could define whether this is a slump or a collapse. 2

Philadelphia Phillies — #19 (▼9 from #10) and Chicago White Sox — #23 (▼9 from #14)

Two of last week's biggest risers came back to earth together. The Phillies, who had ridden Don Mattingly's managerial debut to a 13-4 stretch, went 2-4 against the Cincinnati Reds and Cleveland Guardians, getting outscored 21-14 for a -7 run differential. Their season record dropped to 26-27. 1 The Mattingly revival is not over, but the sample is now large enough to flag that the Phillies have real pitching concerns that one manager cannot fix.
The White Sox followed a similar path. After surging eight spots last week on power production, they went 2-4 against the San Francisco Giants and Seattle Mariners, with a -10 run differential, and fell back to exactly .500 at 26-26. 1 Their season run differential sits at -17, which is the more honest summary of where they stand.

Detroit Tigers — #27 (▼7 from #20)

Detroit went 1-6 for the week, the second-worst record in baseball, dropping their season mark to 21-33. 1 They were swept by Baltimore and swept again by Cleveland, getting outscored 31-19 in the process. The Tigers' underlying metrics (Pythagorean record 24-30, run differential -0.5 R/G) suggest the record overstates how bad they are, but at 21 wins through 54 games, the climb back to relevance grows steeper each week.

The week's biggest risers

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Arizona Diamondbacks — #9 (▲10 from #19)

Arizona's week was the most dominant performance by any team in the MLB this week by run differential. The Diamondbacks went 6-1, outscoring opponents 41-17 for a +24 run differential — best in MLB for the period. 2 They swept the Colorado Rockies and won a series against the San Francisco Giants to improve to 28-24 on the season.
A few notes of caution accompany the surge: the Rockies entered the week at 22-34 and the Giants at 22-31, so the competition was the softest available in the NL West. Arizona's season run differential stands at only +7 — most of it was generated in this single week. And the team did lose LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (hamstring, 10-day IL on May 23), though manager Torey Lovullo said the hope is Gurriel returns when first eligible on June 2, with prospect Tommy Troy called up to fill the roster spot. 3 The Diamondbacks sit 4.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West, and a deeper talent evaluation awaits when they face stiffer competition.

Cleveland Guardians — #6 (▲7 from #13)

Cleveland's 6-1 week was identical to Arizona's in record, and more convincing in context. The Guardians swept the Detroit Tigers (as expected) but also won three of four against the Philadelphia Phillies — a team entering that series at roughly league average. 2 Cleveland outscored opponents 22-12 for a +10 differential, and their season record improved to 32-23.
The Guardians now lead the AL Central by 4.5 games over the White Sox. 1 Their team ERA of 3.55 ranks 6th in MLB with 515 strikeouts — the most of any rotation in the league. 4 Their Pythagorean record of 30-25 suggests modest two-game overperformance, so there is not a significant regression risk here.

Minnesota Twins — #11 (▲14 from #25)

The Twins posted the third-best weekly record in baseball at 5-1, beating the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros while riding a four-game winning streak into the new week. 2 The season record is now 26-27 — just barely under .500, with the team 5.0 games behind Cleveland in the AL Central. The Twins also activated RHP Taj Bradley from the 15-day IL on May 23, returning a young starter to a rotation that has needed depth. 3
Their season run differential of +4 is modest, and the opponents this week — Boston (22-30) and Houston (23-31) — were both below average. Minnesota has not yet proven it can sustain this form against stronger competition. But a 14-spot jump in one week is the most dramatic rise on this week's board.

Injury watch

The week's transaction log was unusually heavy on significant names in both directions.
Off the IL (returning):
  • Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL, RF) — Activated May 18. The 2023 NL MVP is back in Atlanta's lineup. The Braves also activated LHP Dylan Dodd (May 19) and CF Eli White (May 20) this week. 5
  • Gerrit Cole (NYY, RHP) — Activated May 22. The Yankees' ace returns to a rotation that had been managing without him. Cole's return to a New York staff that already owns a 3.24 team ERA (3rd in MLB) is a significant boost for the AL East race. 5
  • Matt Brash (SEA, RHP) — Activated May 20. The high-leverage reliever with elite strikeout stuff returns to Seattle's bullpen alongside Victor Robles (OF, May 22) and Patrick Wisdom (1B, May 18). 5
Added to the IL:
  • Jose Altuve (HOU, 2B) — 10-day IL, retroactive to May 17, left oblique strain. Altuve is the Astros' leadoff hitter and offensive anchor; oblique strains carry a 2-6 week recovery range. 5 Combined with Lance McCullers Jr. (15-day IL, right shoulder, retroactive to May 16), Houston now has both its offensive catalyst and a key rotation piece sidelined simultaneously.
  • Corey Seager (TEX, SS) — 10-day IL, retroactive to May 15, lower back inflammation. Seager is the Rangers' best position player — a two-time World Series MVP and career .290 hitter — and has a documented history of back issues. The Rangers also placed RHP Cole Winn (arm fatigue) and RHP Carter Baumler (60-day IL, intercostal) on the IL this week — three starters / key pieces down in a seven-day window for a team already at 24-28. 5
  • Clay Holmes (NYM, RHP) — Transferred to 60-day IL on May 19 with a right fibula fracture. Out until at least mid-July. Holmes had been converted from reliever to starter and was central to the Mets' rotation plans. 6
  • Colorado Rockies — 4 players in 5 days: LF Jordan Beck (hamstring, May 18), RHP Victor Vodnik (ulnar nerve, May 20), CF Brenton Doyle (oblique, May 21), LF Mickey Moniak (ankle, May 22). Doyle — the 2024 Gold Glove center fielder — is the most impactful loss. The Rockies' outfield is now functionally depleted. 5
  • Yusei Kikuchi (LAA, LHP) — Transferred to 60-day IL on May 22, left shoulder inflammation. Out until at least mid-July. Los Angeles also placed 3B Yoán Moncada on the 10-day IL (right knee inflammation) the same day. 6

Analytics edge: three teams whose records deceive

The gap between actual wins and Pythagorean expected wins reveals which teams are running hot — and which are overdue.
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Dodgers: the most undervalued #2 in baseball

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Los Angeles is ranked second on actual record (33-20, .623), but their underlying numbers are the best in MLB by a wide margin. Their Pythagorean record — derived from run differential — sits at 38-15, suggesting they are five wins below what their scoring margin should produce. 7 The Dodgers' run differential of +2.0 runs per game (scoring 5.2, allowing 3.2) is the best in baseball, as is their Simple Rating System score of 1.9. Their team OPS of .771 leads MLB and their 3.10 ERA ranks second behind Atlanta. 8 4
The bullpen spent this week extending a 36-consecutive-scoreless-innings streak — approaching MLB historical territory — while going 4-2 against the Brewers and Padres, the two toughest schedules any team faced this week. 9 If the Pythagorean regression closes, Los Angeles should occupy the top spot for the majority of the summer.

Rays: five games of luck that deserve scrutiny

Tampa Bay's 34-16 record is the best in the American League and the third-best in baseball. It also sits five wins ahead of what their run differential would predict. The Pythagorean record is 29-21. 7 The Rays are 9-1 in one-run games — tied for the best such mark in baseball — which is the primary driver of the gap between their real and expected records. Their team OPS of .721 ranks 11th in MLB and their run differential of +0.8 runs per game ranks fifth. 8
None of this is to say Tampa Bay is a mirage — a 3.50 team ERA and 19-5 home record are real. But bettors and fantasy managers should know that the gap between the Rays' first-place record and their true talent level is the largest of any team in baseball right now.

Padres and Reds: two regression candidates in opposite leagues

San Diego (31-21, .596) carries a +4 Luck score with a Pythagorean record of 27-25 (.519). Their run differential of +0.1 runs per game is essentially zero, and their team OPS of .661 is 29th in MLB — only the Mets are worse. 7 The Padres' pitching (3.86 ERA) has been doing most of the work, and a lineup that ranks 29th in OPS is not a sustainable base for a .596 winning percentage.
Cincinnati (27-25, .519) presents an even starker picture: a +4 Luck score, a -0.7 R/G run differential, and a 4.78 team ERA that ranks 25th in MLB. 4 The Reds are the only team above .500 in baseball with a negative run differential. Their current record is not supported by either side of the ball.

Week ahead (May 26 – June 1)

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NL Central crossroads: The Cubs (29-24) visit the Cardinals (29-22) for three games — a series that will functionally decide who is the NL Central challenger to the Brewers. Milwaukee (30-20) visits Houston and then San Francisco with the largest SRS advantage of any series this week. 10
Phillies road test: Philadelphia (26-27) visits San Diego for two games then travels to face the Dodgers for three — an opponent winning percentage of .612, the second-toughest schedule in the league this week. After going 2-4 this week, it is the clearest near-term test of whether the Mattingly revival is real. 10
Rays soft landing: Tampa Bay (34-16) has the easiest schedule in the league this week, visiting Baltimore (23-30) and then hosting the Angels (20-34) and Tigers (21-33) — all three opponents below .500. If the Pythagorean regression concern is right, it probably does not show up this week. 10
Red Sox gauntlet: Boston faces the toughest schedule of any team at .624 opponent winning percentage — the Braves at home for three, then visiting Cleveland for three. At 22-30 and with a -16 run differential, this is the wrong week to draw a soft opponent. 10
AI-generated cover image.

参考来源

  1. 1MLB Stats API — 2026 Season Standings
  2. 2MLB Stats API — Game Schedule May 18–25, 2026
  3. 3MLB Stats API — Transactions May 23, 2026
  4. 4MLB Stats API — Team Pitching 2026
  5. 5MLB Stats API — Transactions May 18–25, 2026
  6. 6MLB Stats API — Transactions May 19, 2026
  7. 7Baseball-Reference 2026 MLB Standings
  8. 8MLB Stats API — Team Hitting 2026
  9. 9Last Word On Sports — Dodgers Bullpen Scoreless Streak Reaches 36 Innings
  10. 10MLB Stats API — Schedule May 26 to June 1, 2026
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