8月26日09时：11条豆粕ETF结构化事件

[ { "event_id": "usda-us-20260825-soybean-unknown-sales", "title": "USDA：未知目的地采购美豆 13.2 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": null, "event_type": "usda_report", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 98, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-25", "announcement_id": "FAS-ESR-072-26", "commodity": "soybeans", "destination": "unknown", "quantity_metric_tons": 132000, "marketing_year": "2026/2027", "comparison": "USDA FAS 于 2026 年 8 月 25 日公告私人出口商报告向未知目的地销售 13.2 万吨大豆，交货期为 2026/2027 营销年度。" }, "transmission_chain": [ "USDA FAS 出口销售公告披露 2026/2027 营销年度向未知目的地销售 13.2 万吨美豆。", "未知目的地大单强化美豆出口需求预期，支撑美豆复合盘，进而对国内豆粕成本与 SOYMEAL_ETF 形成偏多传导。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "USDA 修订或撤回 FAS-ESR-072-26 中的数量、目的地或营销年度。", "后续周度出口销售显示该批次取消、改船或实际装运显著低于公告量。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-unknown-destinations-240](https://www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-unknown-destinations-240)](https://fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-unknown-destinations-240](https://www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-unknown-destinations-240))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260825-national-pickup", "title": "全国油厂豆粕提货 20.38 万吨，减 7580 吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-25T10:15:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-25", "region": "全国", "pickup_tons": 203800, "pickup_change_tons": -7580, "regional_notes": { "east_china_pickup_tons": 31500, "east_china_change_tons": -5300, "shandong_pickup_tons": 31500, "shandong_change_tons": 400 }, "comparison": "页面披露 2026 年 8 月 25 日全国主要油厂豆粕总提货量 203800 吨，较前一日减少 7580 吨；华东减少 5300 吨至 31500 吨，山东增加 400 吨至 31500 吨。" }, "transmission_chain": [ "我的钢铁网北京时间 8 月 25 日 18:15 发布全国主要油厂豆粕提货量统计，全国总提货 20.38 万吨、较前一日减少 7580 吨。", "提货回落显示下游拿货节奏放缓，短期现货去库压力上升，SOYMEAL_ETF 方向评分为-1。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "我的钢铁网修订 2026 年 8 月 25 日全国提货总量或较前一日变动。", "后续提货量连续回升并覆盖本次减量。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082518/F8B0706F14E6F261_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082518/F8B0706F14E6F261_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082518/F8B0706F14E6F261_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082518/F8B0706F14E6F261_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260825-national-crush-trade", "title": "全国油厂豆粕成交 20.11 万吨，开机率 64.61%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-25T10:21:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 93, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-25", "region": "全国", "trade_tons": 201100, "operating_rate_percent": 64.61, "spot_samples_yuan_per_ton": [ {"market": "天津", "price": 3110, "change": -10}, {"market": "山东", "price": 3085, "change": 0}, {"market": "江苏", "price": 3080, "change": 10}, {"market": "广东", "price": 3085, "change": 0} ], "comparison": "页面披露 8 月 25 日全国主要油厂豆粕成交 20.11 万吨、开机率 64.61%；同日样本现货天津 3110 元/吨跌 10 元，山东 3085 元/吨持稳，江苏 3080 元/吨涨 10 元，广东 3085 元/吨持稳。" }, "transmission_chain": [ "我的钢铁网北京时间 8 月 25 日 18:21 发布全国油厂开机及豆粕成交量统计，成交 20.11 万吨、开机率 64.61%。", "全国成交放量显示下游阶段性补库，对 SOYMEAL_ETF 形成短线偏多成交信号；需与提货回落一并观察能否持续。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "我的钢铁网修订 2026 年 8 月 25 日全国成交量或开机率。", "后续全国成交量显著回落且开机率同步上行，供应压力重新主导。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082518/91C7366105B1E305_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082518/91C7366105B1E305_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082518/91C7366105B1E305_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082518/91C7366105B1E305_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260825-huabei-supply-report", "title": "华北豆粕 3110—3170 元下调，成交 6000 吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-26T00:33:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-25", "region": "华北", "spot_price_yuan_per_ton": { "protein_percent": 43, "markets": [ {"market": "华北", "range": [3110, 3170]} ] }, "spot_direction": "下调", "trade_tons": 6000, "trade_price_range_yuan_per_ton": null, "spot_trade_tons": null, "forward_trade_tons": null, "crush_tons_per_day": null, "operating_rate_percent": null, "comparison": "页面披露上一工作日华北市场豆粕现货价格下调至 3110—3170 元/吨，油厂成交 6000 吨。" }, "transmission_chain": [ "我的钢铁网北京时间 8 月 26 日 08:33 发布的华北早报，披露上一工作日 43%豆粕现货 3110—3170 元/吨、油厂成交 6000 吨。", "华北现货继续下调且成交低于前一统计日的 1 万吨，区域现货信号偏弱，SOYMEAL_ETF 短线方向评分为-1。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "我的钢铁网修订 2026 年 8 月 25 日华北早报中的现货区间或成交量。", "华北后续现货报价回升并出现可核验的成交放量。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082608/1D067C0734787E39_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082608/1D067C0734787E39_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082608/1D067C0734787E39_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082608/1D067C0734787E39_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260825-shandong-supply-report", "title": "山东豆粕持平，开机率 71.84%，成交 5 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-26T00:39:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-25", "region": "山东", "spot_price_yuan_per_ton": { "protein_percent": 43, "markets": [ {"market": "日照", "range": [3080, 3080]}, {"market": "青岛", "range": [3100, 3100]} ] }, "spot_direction": "持平", "trade_tons": 50000, "trade_price_range_yuan_per_ton": [3100, 3100], "spot_trade_tons": 28000, "forward_trade_tons": 22000, "crush_tons_per_day": 62000, "operating_rate_percent": 71.84, "share_of_national_percent": 18.5, "comparison": "页面披露上一交易日山东 43%豆粕现货整体持平，日照 3080 元/吨、青岛 3100 元/吨；主流成交价 3100 元/吨，总成交 5.00 万吨，现货 2.80 万吨、远月 2.20 万吨；日压榨量 6.2 万吨，开机率 71.84%，占全国 18.50%。" }, "transmission_chain": [ "我的钢铁网北京时间 8 月 26 日 08:39 发布的山东早报，披露日照 3080 元/吨、青岛 3100 元/吨持平，总成交 5.00 万吨，日压榨 6.2 万吨，开机率 71.84%。", "现货持平与成交放量、开机率回落并存，区域多空信号对冲，SOYMEAL_ETF 方向保持中性。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "我的钢铁网修订 2026 年 8 月 25 日山东早报中的现货、成交、压榨量或开机率。", "山东后续现货报价与开机率同向大幅变动。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082608/E5F5CE89C8D04D09_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082608/E5F5CE89C8D04D09_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082608/E5F5CE89C8D04D09_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082608/E5F5CE89C8D04D09_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260825-guangdong-supply-report", "title": "广东豆粕持稳，油厂成交 3.5 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-26T00:39:00Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-25", "region": "广东", "spot_price_yuan_per_ton": { "protein_percent": 43, "markets": [ {"market": "东莞", "range": [3080, 3100]}, {"market": "湛江", "range": [3110, 3130]} ] }, "spot_direction": "持稳", "trade_tons": 35000, "trade_price_range_yuan_per_ton": [3110, 3120], "spot_trade_tons": null, "forward_trade_tons": null, "crush_tons_per_day": null, "operating_rate_percent": null, "comparison": "页面披露上一交易日广东现货价格持稳，东莞 3080—3100 元/吨、湛江 3110—3130 元/吨；油厂总成交 35000 吨，成交价 3110—3120 元/吨。" }, "transmission_chain": [ "我的钢铁网北京时间 8 月 26 日 08:39 发布的广东早报，披露东莞 3080—3100 元/吨、湛江 3110—3130 元/吨持稳，油厂总成交 3.5 万吨。", "现货持稳叠加成交放量，价格方向中性，成交端偏活跃；SOYMEAL_ETF 区域评分保持 0。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "我的钢铁网修订 2026 年 8 月 25 日广东早报中的现货区间、成交量或成交价。", "广东后续现货出现明确涨跌并伴随成交量方向改变。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082608/A1E1148EB99467BA_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082608/A1E1148EB99467BA_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082608/A1E1148EB99467BA_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082608/A1E1148EB99467BA_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260825-northeast-supply-report", "title": "东北油厂成交 2.8 万吨，开机率 66.19%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-26T00:42:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-25", "region": "东北", "spot_price_yuan_per_ton": { "protein_percent": 43, "markets": [ {"market": "辽宁", "range": [3190, 3200]}, {"market": "吉林", "range": [3250, 3250]} ] }, "spot_direction": null, "trade_tons": 28000, "trade_price_range_yuan_per_ton": [3190, 3250], "spot_trade_tons": null, "forward_trade_tons": null, "crush_tons_per_day": 32300, "operating_rate_percent": 66.19, "comparison": "页面披露前一交易日东北油厂成交 28000 吨，成交价 3190—3250 元/吨；辽宁 3190—3200 元/吨、吉林 3250 元/吨；开机率 66.19%，日压榨量 32300 吨。" }, "transmission_chain": [ "我的钢铁网北京时间 8 月 26 日 08:42 发布的东北早报，披露成交 2.8 万吨、成交价 3190—3250 元/吨、开机率 66.19%、日压榨 3.23 万吨。", "成交量较前一统计日 1.5 万吨明显放量，区域需求信号偏强，SOYMEAL_ETF 短线方向评分为+1。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "我的钢铁网修订 2026 年 8 月 25 日东北早报中的成交量、成交价、开机率或日压榨量。", "东北后续成交量回落至低位且开机率显著上行。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082608/A6C950F8931DC448_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082608/A6C950F8931DC448_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082608/A6C950F8931DC448_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082608/A6C950F8931DC448_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260825-fujian-supply-report", "title": "福建豆粕 3080 元，成交 0 吨，开机率 43.97%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-26T00:42:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-25", "region": "福建", "spot_price_yuan_per_ton": { "protein_percent": 43, "markets": [ {"market": "福建豆粕现货", "range": [3080, 3080]} ] }, "spot_direction": null, "trade_tons": 0, "trade_price_range_yuan_per_ton": null, "spot_trade_tons": null, "forward_trade_tons": null, "crush_tons_per_day": null, "operating_rate_percent": 43.97, "comparison": "页面披露上一交易日福建豆粕现货市场价格 3080 元/吨，成交 0 吨，开机率 43.97%。" }, "transmission_chain": [ "我的钢铁网北京时间 8 月 26 日 08:42 发布的福建早报，披露现货 3080 元/吨、成交 0 吨和开机率 43.97%。", "成交仍为 0 吨叠加偏低开机，区域需求偏弱，SOYMEAL_ETF 短线方向评分为-1。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "我的钢铁网修订 2026 年 8 月 25 日福建早报中的现货价格、成交量或开机率。", "福建后续出现可核验的成交恢复和现货报价回升。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082608/564B49002C0ED970_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082608/564B49002C0ED970_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082608/564B49002C0ED970_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082608/564B49002C0ED970_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260825-eastchina-supply-report", "title": "华东油厂开机率 68.58%，开机量 7.40 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-26T00:43:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-25", "region": "华东", "spot_price_yuan_per_ton": null, "spot_direction": null, "trade_tons": null, "trade_price_range_yuan_per_ton": null, "spot_trade_tons": null, "forward_trade_tons": null, "crush_tons_per_day": 74000, "operating_rate_percent": 68.58, "comparison": "页面披露上一交易日华东油厂开工率 68.58%、开机量 7.40 万吨。" }, "transmission_chain": [ "我的钢铁网北京时间 8 月 26 日 08:43 发布的华东早报，披露上一交易日开工率 68.58%和开机量 7.40 万吨。", "华东开机率与开机量均为供应端指标，页面未给出对应现货价格变动，SOYMEAL_ETF 方向保持中性观察。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "我的钢铁网修订 2026 年 8 月 25 日华东早报中的开工率或开机量。", "华东后续开机率和开机量出现同口径的明显回落或上升。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082608/9AACE89A5F33B586_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082608/9AACE89A5F33B586_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082608/9AACE89A5F33B586_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082608/9AACE89A5F33B586_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260825-two-lakes-supply-report", "title": "两湖豆粕 3150—3170 元，成交 0 吨，开机率 68%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-26T00:44:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 93, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-25", "region": "两湖", "spot_price_yuan_per_ton": { "protein_percent": 43, "markets": [ {"market": "武汉及岳阳", "range": [3150, 3170]} ] }, "spot_direction": "稳中上调", "trade_tons": 0, "trade_price_range_yuan_per_ton": null, "spot_trade_tons": null, "forward_trade_tons": null, "crush_tons_per_day": null, "operating_rate_percent": 68, "comparison": "页面披露上个交易日两湖豆粕现货价格稳中上调，武汉及岳阳市场价在 3150—3170 元/吨区间，油厂总成交 0 吨，开机率 68%。" }, "transmission_chain": [ "我的钢铁网北京时间 8 月 26 日 08:44 发布的两湖早报，披露武汉及岳阳 3150—3170 元/吨、总成交 0 吨和开机率 68%。", "现货稳中上调与成交为 0 吨并存，价格与成交信号对冲，SOYMEAL_ETF 区域方向保持中性。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "我的钢铁网修订 2026 年 8 月 25 日两湖早报中的现货区间、成交量或开机率。", "两湖后续出现可核验的成交放量并伴随现货方向明确变化。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082608/D5962BEAFCEB34BA_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082608/D5962BEAFCEB34BA_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082608/D5962BEAFCEB34BA_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082608/D5962BEAFCEB34BA_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260825-chuanyu-supply-report", "title": "川渝豆粕 3130—3200 元下调，开机率 47%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-26T00:53:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-25", "region": "川渝", "spot_price_yuan_per_ton": { "protein_percent": 43, "markets": [ {"market": "重庆贸易商", "range": [3130, 3160]}, {"market": "四川贸易商", "range": [3190, 3200]} ] }, "spot_direction": "下调", "trade_tons": null, "trade_price_range_yuan_per_ton": null, "spot_trade_tons": null, "forward_trade_tons": null, "crush_tons_per_day": 10800, "operating_rate_percent": 47, "comparison": "页面披露昨日川渝市场豆粕现货价格下调，在 3130—3200 元/吨区间；重庆贸易商 3130—3160 元/吨，四川贸易商 3190—3200 元/吨；开机率 47%，压榨量 1.08 万吨/日。" }, "transmission_chain": [ "我的钢铁网北京时间 8 月 26 日 08:53 发布的川渝早报，披露前一交易日现货 3130—3200 元/吨下调、开机率 47%、日压榨 1.08 万吨。", "川渝现货下调叠加中等偏低开机，区域现货信号偏弱，SOYMEAL_ETF 短线方向评分为-1。" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "我的钢铁网修订 2026 年 8 月 25 日川渝早报中的现货区间、开机率或日压榨量。", "川渝后续现货报价回升并伴随开机率明显变化。" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26082608/8557627C1BDC7978_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082608/8557627C1BDC7978_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26082608/8557627C1BDC7978_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26082608/8557627C1BDC7978_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" } ]