2026-09-01 09:00 纳指ETF事件流（6条）

[ { "event_id": "USTreasury-NASDAQ-20260831-nominal-yield-curve", "title": "Treasury 名义收益率曲线长端上行", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-31T15:48:10Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T15:48:10Z", "event_type": "rate_path", "asset_keys": [ "NASDAQ" ], "direction_score": { "NASDAQ": -1 }, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "U.S. Department of the Treasury", "series": "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates", "data_date": "August 31, 2026", "comparison_date": "August 28, 2026", "unit": "percent per annum", "feed_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-31T15:48:10Z", "maturities": { "1_month": { "current": 3.85, "previous": 3.84, "change_bp": 1 }, "1_5_month": { "current": 3.86, "previous": 3.83, "change_bp": 3 }, "2_month": { "current": 3.88, "previous": 3.86, "change_bp": 2 }, "3_month": { "current": 3.91, "previous": 3.9, "change_bp": 1 }, "4_month": { "current": 3.96, "previous": 3.94, "change_bp": 2 }, "6_month": { "current": 3.99, "previous": 4.02, "change_bp": -3 }, "1_year": { "current": 4.16, "previous": 4.15, "change_bp": 1 }, "2_year": { "current": 4.34, "previous": 4.34, "change_bp": 0 }, "3_year": { "current": 4.4, "previous": 4.41, "change_bp": -1 }, "5_year": { "current": 4.49, "previous": 4.48, "change_bp": 1 }, "7_year": { "current": 4.62, "previous": 4.59, "change_bp": 3 }, "10_year": { "current": 4.75, "previous": 4.73, "change_bp": 2 }, "20_year": { "current": 5.24, "previous": 5.21, "change_bp": 3 }, "30_year": { "current": 5.25, "previous": 5.22, "change_bp": 3 } }, "release_date": "August 31, 2026", "event_time_basis": "XML feed updated timestamp; this is the source update time, while data_date is the observation date." }, "transmission_chain": "名义 10 年与 30 年期收益率分别较 8 月 28 日上行 2 和 3 个基点→若该无风险基准传导至纳指估值贴现率，远期现金流现值承压→在盈利预期不变时纳指估值偏空。", "invalidation_conditions": "若后续 10 年期收益率回落至 4.73%或更低且 30 年期回落至 5.22%或更低，或盈利预期上修足以抵消贴现率升幅，该偏空判断失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026))", "[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "USTreasury-NASDAQ-20260831-real-yield-curve", "title": "Treasury 实际收益率长端上行", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-31T15:48:10Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T15:48:10Z", "event_type": "rate_path", "asset_keys": [ "NASDAQ" ], "direction_score": { "NASDAQ": -1 }, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "U.S. Department of the Treasury", "series": "Daily Treasury Par Real Yield Curve Rates", "data_date": "August 31, 2026", "comparison_date": "August 28, 2026", "unit": "percent per annum", "feed_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-31T15:48:10Z", "maturities": { "5_year": { "current": 2.18, "previous": 2.18, "change_bp": 0 }, "7_year": { "current": 2.29, "previous": 2.29, "change_bp": 0 }, "10_year": { "current": 2.44, "previous": 2.42, "change_bp": 2 }, "20_year": { "current": 2.78, "previous": 2.76, "change_bp": 2 }, "30_year": { "current": 2.99, "previous": 2.96, "change_bp": 3 } }, "release_date": "August 31, 2026", "event_time_basis": "XML feed updated timestamp; this is the source update time, while data_date is the observation date." }, "transmission_chain": "实际 10 年、20 年和 30 年期收益率分别上行 2、2 和 3 个基点→实际无风险贴现率基准抬升→在盈利增长预期不变时纳指成长股远期现金流现值承压。", "invalidation_conditions": "若后续实际 10 年、20 年和 30 年期收益率分别回落至 2.42%、2.76%和 2.96%或更低，或盈利增长预期上修足以覆盖实际贴现率升幅，该偏空判断失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026))", "[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "USTreasury-NASDAQ-20260831-bill-yield-curve", "title": "Treasury 国库券收益率中段上行", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-31T15:48:43Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T15:48:43Z", "event_type": "rate_path", "asset_keys": [ "NASDAQ" ], "direction_score": { "NASDAQ": -1 }, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "U.S. Department of the Treasury", "series": "Daily Treasury Bill Rates", "data_date": "August 31, 2026", "comparison_date": "August 28, 2026", "unit": "percent per annum", "quote_basis": "coupon equivalent", "feed_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-31T15:48:43Z", "maturities": { "4_week": { "current": 3.75, "previous": 3.75, "change_bp": 0 }, "6_week": { "current": 3.79, "previous": 3.77, "change_bp": 2 }, "8_week": { "current": 3.81, "previous": 3.79, "change_bp": 2 }, "13_week": { "current": 3.87, "previous": 3.83, "change_bp": 4 }, "17_week": { "current": 3.92, "previous": 3.9, "change_bp": 2 }, "26_week": { "current": 4.02, "previous": 3.98, "change_bp": 4 }, "52_week": { "current": 4.14, "previous": 4.14, "change_bp": 0 } }, "release_date": "August 31, 2026", "event_time_basis": "XML feed updated timestamp; this is the source update time, while data_date is the observation date." }, "transmission_chain": "13 周和 26 周国库券收益率分别上行 4 个基点→美元短端无风险利率基准边际抬升→在盈利预期与风险溢价不变时纳指风险偏好偏空。", "invalidation_conditions": "若后续 13 周收益率回落至 3.83%或更低且 26 周回落至 3.98%或更低，或风险资产盈利预期上修足以抵消短端成本变化，该偏空判断失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_bill_rates&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_bill_rates&field_tdr_date_value=2026)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_bill_rates&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_bill_rates&field_tdr_date_value=2026))", "[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_bill_rates&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_bill_rates&field_tdr_date_value=2026)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_bill_rates&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_bill_rates&field_tdr_date_value=2026))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "FederalReserve-NASDAQ-20260831-h15-nominal-yields", "title": "H.15（8 月 28 日）名义收益率上行", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-31T20:15:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T20:15:00Z", "event_type": "rate_path", "asset_keys": [ "NASDAQ" ], "direction_score": { "NASDAQ": -2 }, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "release": "Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates", "release_date": "August 31, 2026", "release_time": "4:15 p.m. ET", "data_date": "August 28, 2026", "comparison_date": "August 27, 2026", "unit": "percent per annum", "maturities": { "1_month": { "current": 3.84, "previous": 3.81, "change_bp": 3 }, "3_month": { "current": 3.9, "previous": 3.84, "change_bp": 6 }, "6_month": { "current": 4.02, "previous": 3.94, "change_bp": 8 }, "1_year": { "current": 4.15, "previous": 4.04, "change_bp": 11 }, "2_year": { "current": 4.34, "previous": 4.2, "change_bp": 14 }, "3_year": { "current": 4.41, "previous": 4.3, "change_bp": 11 }, "5_year": { "current": 4.48, "previous": 4.38, "change_bp": 10 }, "7_year": { "current": 4.59, "previous": 4.52, "change_bp": 7 }, "10_year": { "current": 4.73, "previous": 4.67, "change_bp": 6 }, "20_year": { "current": 5.21, "previous": 5.18, "change_bp": 3 }, "30_year": { "current": 5.22, "previous": 5.19, "change_bp": 3 } }, "event_time_basis": "Federal Reserve daily release time stated on the H.15 page." }, "transmission_chain": "H.15 显示 2 年、5 年和 10 年期名义收益率分别较 8 月 27 日上行 14、10 和 6 个基点→名义无风险贴现率基准抬升→在盈利与指引不变时高久期纳指资产估值承压。", "invalidation_conditions": "若后续 2 年、5 年和 10 年期收益率分别回落至 4.20%、4.38%和 4.67%或更低，或纳指成分股盈利与指引上修足以抵消利率冲击，该偏空判断失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/)](https://federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "FederalReserve-NASDAQ-20260831-h15-real-yields", "title": "H.15（8 月 28 日）实际收益率上行", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-31T20:15:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T20:15:00Z", "event_type": "rate_path", "asset_keys": [ "NASDAQ" ], "direction_score": { "NASDAQ": -2 }, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "release": "Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates", "release_date": "August 31, 2026", "release_time": "4:15 p.m. ET", "data_date": "August 28, 2026", "comparison_date": "August 27, 2026", "unit": "percent per annum", "maturities": { "5_year": { "current": 2.18, "previous": 2.07, "change_bp": 11 }, "7_year": { "current": 2.29, "previous": 2.19, "change_bp": 10 }, "10_year": { "current": 2.42, "previous": 2.34, "change_bp": 8 }, "20_year": { "current": 2.76, "previous": 2.71, "change_bp": 5 }, "30_year": { "current": 2.96, "previous": 2.92, "change_bp": 4 } }, "event_time_basis": "Federal Reserve daily release time stated on the H.15 page." }, "transmission_chain": "H.15 显示 5 年至 30 年期实际收益率全线上行 4 至 11 个基点→实际无风险贴现率基准抬升→在盈利增长预期不变时纳指成长股远期现金流折现压力增加。", "invalidation_conditions": "若后续 5 年、7 年、10 年、20 年和 30 年期实际收益率分别回落至 2.07%、2.19%、2.34%、2.71%和 2.92%或更低，或盈利增长预期上修足以覆盖实际贴现率升幅，该偏空判断失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/)](https://federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "FederalReserve-NASDAQ-20260831-cp-rates", "title": "商业票据短端利率信号分化", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z", "event_type": "rate_path", "asset_keys": [ "NASDAQ" ], "direction_score": { "NASDAQ": 0 }, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "release": "Federal Reserve Commercial Paper Rates and Outstanding Summary", "posted_date": "August 31, 2026", "posted_time": "usually 1:00 p.m. ET; exact posting time not guaranteed", "data_date": "August 28, 2026", "comparison_date": "August 27, 2026", "unit": "percent per annum", "not_available": "n.a. indicates that trade data was insufficient to support calculation of the particular rate", "aa_nonfinancial": { "1_day": { "current": 3.62, "previous": 3.64, "change_bp": -2 }, "7_day": { "current": 3.65, "previous": 3.65, "change_bp": 0 }, "15_day": { "current": 3.68, "previous": 3.68, "change_bp": 0 }, "30_day": { "current": 3.68, "previous": 3.69, "change_bp": -1 }, "60_day": { "current": null, "previous": 3.73, "change_bp": null, "current_source_value": "n.a." }, "90_day": { "current": null, "previous": 3.7, "change_bp": null, "current_source_value": "n.a." } }, "a2_p2_nonfinancial": { "1_day": { "current": 3.79, "previous": 3.79, "change_bp": 0 }, "7_day": { "current": 3.88, "previous": 3.83, "change_bp": 5 }, "15_day": { "current": 3.87, "previous": 3.88, "change_bp": -1 }, "30_day": { "current": 3.91, "previous": 3.91, "change_bp": 0 }, "60_day": { "current": null, "previous": 3.89, "change_bp": null, "current_source_value": "n.a." }, "90_day": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change_bp": null, "current_source_value": "n.a.", "previous_source_value": "n.a." } }, "aa_financial": { "1_day": { "current": 3.62, "previous": 3.62, "change_bp": 0 }, "7_day": { "current": 3.67, "previous": null, "change_bp": null, "previous_source_value": "n.a." }, "15_day": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change_bp": null, "current_source_value": "n.a.", "previous_source_value": "n.a." }, "30_day": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change_bp": null, "current_source_value": "n.a.", "previous_source_value": "n.a." }, "60_day": { "current": null, "previous": null, "change_bp": null, "current_source_value": "n.a.", "previous_source_value": "n.a." }, "90_day": { "current": 3.83, "previous": null, "change_bp": null, "previous_source_value": "n.a." } }, "aa_asset_backed": { "1_day": { "current": 3.66, "previous": 3.63, "change_bp": 3 }, "7_day": { "current": 3.69, "previous": 3.71, "change_bp": -2 }, "15_day": { "current": 3.78, "previous": 3.71, "change_bp": 7 }, "30_day": { "current": 3.81, "previous": 3.77, "change_bp": 4 }, "60_day": { "current": 3.85, "previous": 3.84, "change_bp": 1 }, "90_day": { "current": 3.88, "previous": 3.89, "change_bp": -1 } } }, "transmission_chain": "A2/P2 非金融 7 日利率与资产支持票据 15 日、30 日利率分别上行 5、7 和 4 个基点，但 AA 非金融 1 日和 30 日利率下降且多期限数据不足→可比期限的融资利率方向不一致，无法映射为单一融资冲击→当前对纳指方向评分保持中性。", "invalidation_conditions": "若后续连续两次同口径发布中，四个评级或产品组在 1 日、7 日、15 日和 30 日等共同可比期限里至少三组同向变动，且当前缺失期限恢复披露，该中性判断失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[federalreserve.gov/releases/cp/](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/cp/)](https://federalreserve.gov/releases/cp/](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/cp/))" ], "source_tier": "A" } ]