2026-09-07 14:30｜金银现货均跌0.6%，9月加息概率58.4%

{ "schema_version": 1, "window": { "label": "上一次运行以来", "timezone": "Asia/Shanghai", "start_local": "2026-09-07 11:30:00+08:00", "end_local": "2026-09-07 14:30:00+08:00" }, "events": [ { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260907-rate-hike-bets", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "路透：金银现货均跌 0.6%，9 月加息概率 58.4%", "event_time_utc": "2026-09-07T04:20:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-07T04:31:14.404Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": -1, "AG": -1}, "confidence": 92, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "Reuters", "article_published_at_utc": "2026-09-07T02:36:32.342Z", "article_updated_at_utc": "2026-09-07T04:31:14.404Z", "quote_time": "0420 GMT", "spot_gold": { "value": 4402.86, "unit": "USD/oz", "change_pct": -0.6 }, "spot_silver": { "value": 65.80, "unit": "USD/oz", "change_pct": -0.6 }, "US_December_gold_futures": { "value": 4447.60, "unit": "USD/oz", "change_pct": -0.6 }, "CME_FedWatch": { "meeting": "2026-09-15/2026-09-16", "rate_hike_probability_pct": 58.4 }, "US_August_unemployment_rate_pct": 4.1, "Reuters_wording": "strong U.S. jobs data reinforced expectations for higher interest rates" }, "transmission_chain": "美国就业数据被路透表述为增强加息预期→CME FedWatch 显示 9 月 15—16 日加息概率为 58.4%→利率预期上升提高持有贵金属的机会成本→0420 GMT 现货黄金与现货白银均报日跌 0.6%。", "invalidation_conditions": "后续官方通胀数据或美联储沟通使 2026-09-15—16 日加息概率明显回落，且金银报价不再维持当前下跌状态时，该传导链失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-eases-robust-us-payrolls-boost-rate-hike-bets-inflation-data-focus-2026-09-07/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-eases-robust-us-payrolls-boost-rate-hike-bets-inflation-data-focus-2026-09-07/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-eases-robust-us-payrolls-boost-rate-hike-bets-inflation-data-focus-2026-09-07/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-eases-robust-us-payrolls-boost-rate-hike-bets-inflation-data-focus-2026-09-07/))" ], "source_tier": "B" } ], "coverage_gaps": [ { "gap_id": "COMEX-registered-eligible", "requirement": "硬性覆盖：COMEX 金银库存分级变动", "status": "unverified_in_window", "summary": "本轮新增尝试通过 Google 对路透和财联社做站内定向检索，未返回窗口内 Gold Stocks 或 Silver Stocks 的 registered、eligible 数值性原文；因此未以搜索结果或入口页替代 COMEX 分级库存事实。", "attempted_routes": [ "Google site:reuters.com 定向检索 COMEX gold stocks registered eligible", "Google site:cls.cn 定向检索 COMEX 黄金库存 registered eligible" ] }, { "gap_id": "SGE-weekly-inventory-flow", "requirement": "硬性覆盖：SGE 出入库（周频）", "status": "unverified_in_window", "summary": "本轮新增尝试上金所 graph/quotations 接口的 Au(T+D)与 Ag(T+D)请求，但接口返回 403 拦截，Google 与百度站内检索也未返回窗口内新的周频出入库报告或数字，因此未以行情页或搜索结果替代周频出入库事实。", "attempted_routes": [ "https://www.sge.com.cn/graph/quotations", "Google site:sge.com.cn 2026 年第 34 期行情周报出入库", "百度 site:sge.com.cn 2026 年第 34 期行情周报出入库" ] } ] }