June 11, 2026 final settlements: Trump's Iran deal flips oil $8, gold bounces $187
Trump announced a US-Iran settlement deal from the Oval Office at 3:45 PM ET, reversing oil's $93.64 spike to ~$85.32 in extended hours and lifting gold $186.70 off its 6-month low. COMEX gold settled at $4,232.90, WTI at $86.42, Dow +929 points. WASDE kept corn and soybean ending stocks near-unchanged; US winter wheat crop smallest since 1965.
June 11, 2026 final settlements: Trump's Iran deal collapses $8 oil spike, gold reverses $187 from 6-month low
Trump announced a "great settlement" with Iran from the Oval Office at 3:45 PM ET, canceling the third night of strikes and triggering the single largest intraday oil collapse of the conflict. WTI had peaked at $93.64 on a midday Kharg Island seizure threat and cratered to $85.32 in extended hours — an $8.32 range that will be studied. Gold reversed even more violently in dollar terms, bouncing $186.70 off a session low of $4,046.20. The Dow surged 929 points. Iran's foreign ministry called Trump's claims "speculative," and the Hormuz naval blockade remains in place, so every number in this recap could look very different by tomorrow's open.
Final settlement table — June 11, 2026
| Commodity | Contract | Settlement | Prior Settle | Change | % Chg | Day Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | COMEX GCQ6 (Aug '26) | $4,232.90 | $4,133.30 | +$99.60 | +2.41% | $4,046.20 – $4,241.30 |
| WTI Crude | NYMEX CLN6 (Jul '26) | $86.42 | $90.03 | −$3.61 | −4.01% | $85.74 – $93.64 |
| Brent Crude | ICE @LCO.1 (Aug '26) | $89.13 | $93.10 | −$3.97 | −4.26% | $88.44 – $95.50 |
| Corn | CBOT ZCN6 (Jul '26) | 411.75¢ | 419.75¢ | −8.00¢ | −1.91% | 410.50 – 420.00¢ |
| Soybeans | CBOT ZSN6 (Jul '26) | 1,115.00¢ | 1,123.50¢ | −8.50¢ | −0.76% | 1,108.25 – 1,125.00¢ |
| Copper | COMEX HGN6 (Jul '26) | ~$6.39 | $6.2670 | +$0.12 | +2.00% | $6.39 – $6.39 (Globex) |
WTI settlement confirmed by MarketWatch. 1 Gold last trade $4,232.90 (MarketWatch, 4:54 PM ET); official COMEX settlement pending CME publish. 2 Copper CME Globex last: $6.3925. Brent: CNBC @LCO.1 last trade. All prior settles from CME official records. 3
Iran: the reversal in six timestamps
The day's commodity price action was almost entirely a function of six developments, each with a timestamp:
8:40 AM ET — Trump posted on Truth Social threatening to hit Iran "VERY HARD TONIGHT" and, in a Fox & Friends interview, floated seizing Kharg Island — the terminal through which roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports flow. WTI spiked from $88.63 to a session high of $93.64. Gold was already falling; the Kharg threat accelerated the Iran-as-inflation-shock repricing. 567
1:41 PM ET — Trump reversed on Truth Social: "Based on the fact that discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved, I have, as President of the United States of America, cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening." 4 Oil began to retreat from its highs.
2:30 PM ET — NYMEX officially closed. WTI CLN6 settled at $86.42, down $3.61 (-4.01%) — an 8-week low — as traders priced out the Kharg Island premium entirely. 1
3:45 PM ET — Trump told reporters in the Oval Office: "We just made a great settlement of the war with Iran. And we're going to be, subject to finalization of documents, we should get done over the next few days. Probably have a signing, maybe in Europe." He listed the U.S., Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and Egypt as approving parties — conspicuously omitting Iran itself. 48
4:20 PM ET — Trump added: "They will not have a nuclear weapon. They've agreed to that. They will not only not have, they will not purchase, develop in any way, any shape, in any way, shape or form, a nuclear weapon." 4 The Dow, already up 800+ points, extended its gain to close at +929.
4:44 PM ET — Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei responded through state media: "So far, Iran has not reached a final conclusion on the agreement." 9 Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's office separately confirmed Israel "would not be a part of that memorandum of understanding." 710
The Baqaei and Netanyahu statements are the reason this recap uses the word "fragile" for any positioning based on a de-escalation narrative.
Hormuz: de facto closure, contested by CENTCOM
Iran's Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) and the newly formed Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) declared the Strait of Hormuz "closed until further notice" on June 11. The PGSA stated: "Due to the tensions caused by the aggression of the American forces in the region and the announcement made last night by the Iranian armed forces, the Strait of Hormuz will be closed until further notice." 9 CENTCOM denied the closure, insisting commercial ships continue to transit. 8 Kpler vessel-tracking data showed only one confirmed strait crossing on Thursday, down from eight on Monday — the practical reality sits between IRGC's "fully closed" and CENTCOM's "open." 11 Trump said the strait would open "immediately" upon signing: "The strait will officially open as soon as we sign, which could be soon, very soon, maybe over the weekend in Europe." 8
Robert Yawger of Mizuho Securities USA does not believe a deal will materialize while the IRGC and Supreme Leader Khamenei control the negotiating levers. He warned: oil prices "will likely start to tick higher in coming days as storage continues to drain out." 12 Terry Haines of Pangaea Policy reframed Trump's behavior throughout the day as consistent with a pattern: "Trump wants the threat, not the action. The goal is Iran capitulation, not a supply shock that hurts U.S. consumers before midterms." 6
Vessel casualties: first confirmed seafarer deaths
A second vessel, the Jalveer (Guinea-Bissau-flagged asphalt carrier), was struck on June 11 by two Hellfire missiles fired at its engine room. All 20 Indian crew were rescued off the Omani coast. CENTCOM stated: "A US aircraft fired two Hellfire missiles into the ship's engine room after the crew repeatedly failed to comply with directions from US forces." 4 Jalveer became the 9th vessel disabled under the blockade since April 13.
Earlier, India's shipping ministry confirmed all three missing crew of the Palau-flagged Settebello — struck June 10 — are dead, the first commercial seafarer fatalities since the blockade began. 11 India summoned the U.S. deputy chief of mission and expressed "strong protest" at the United Nations Security Council. 7 IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez called the deaths "simply unacceptable." 13
WTI & Brent: $8.32 crash from peak, settling at 8-week low
The math on today's WTI trade: opened $92.25, spiked to $93.64 on the Kharg Island threat, then crashed through the settlement at $86.42 and continued to $85.32 in extended-hours — a full intraday range of $8.32 (peak-to-trough) on 289,030 contracts (184% of the 65-day average). 112
Brent (August ICE) closed at $89.13, down $3.97 (−4.26%) from $93.10, touching a session low of $88.44 as the Trump Oval Office remarks filtered into the market. 14 The Brent-WTI spread came in at $2.71 — inside the $3.50–3.70 range that prevailed before today's session. Natural gas (Henry Hub front month) settled at $3.083/MMBtu, down 3.20%, touching its lowest print since late May. 15
Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management argued that even before today's reversal, the market had been showing what he called "illogical insanity" — crude below $100 despite an ostensibly closed strait only makes sense if the physical system is more resilient than assumed. "If Hormuz was genuinely shut, crude would not be 'politely' trading below $100 a barrel. It would be trying to kick the door off the hinges." 6 That read proved directionally right for today's session: the U.S. posted record crude exports (1.050 billion barrels/day in May, per CENTCOM claims), and alternative routing has reduced Hormuz dependency at the margin.
The 5-day WTI change stands at −6.99%; year-to-date, CLN6 is still +51.48% from its January baseline. 1 A Reuters account of oil-market positioning noted that a "political understanding" had been reached in talks, yet the mechanism for releasing frozen Iranian assets — Iran seeks $6–12 billion directly; the U.S. wants a staged humanitarian release — remained unresolved as of Thursday evening. 8
Gold: $186.70 reversal from 6-month low, bear market intact
Gold's session told two stories: a bear-market continuation to $4,046.20 (the lowest intraday print since November 2025), then a textbook geopolitical-risk-resolution rally to $4,241.30 once the deal announcement hit. 16
GCQ6 (August 2026) settled at $4,232.90 on 199,340 contracts — 550% of the 65-day average of 36,240, reflecting the extraordinary volatility. 17 Spot gold closed at approximately $4,214.40 (+3.54%); spot silver led with +6.20% to $67.22. 16
The bear market context matters here: gold peaked at $5,409/oz on March 11, 2026. Today's close at roughly $4,214–4,233 leaves the drawdown from peak at 21.74%–22.08% depending on which price you anchor to — comfortably in bear-market territory for a second consecutive session. 18 At the session intraday low of $4,046.20, the peak-to-trough drawdown hit 25.19%.
Saxo Bank commodity strategy head Ole Hansen had identified the morning's price action before the bounce: "Since mid-April, gold has increasingly traded as a victim of an energy-driven inflation scare, with investors focusing on rising oil prices, higher inflation expectations, stronger bond yields and a firmer dollar rather than the longer-term themes that helped drive prices to record highs earlier this year." 19 He added: "Ultimately, a durable peace agreement and a normalisation of energy markets remain the most likely catalysts for such a shift." Today's settlement — if it holds — is exactly that catalyst, though Iran's denial leaves the "durable" qualifier unresolved.
Hansen's downside target of $4,075 was nearly tested intraday (low: $4,046.20). On the upside, he pegged $4,500 as the first level where bullish momentum would resume. For traders: today's $186.70 bounce covers 36% of the distance from the session low to $4,500 — meaningful progress, but the bear structure is not broken.
Citi had cut its 0–3 month target to $4,000/oz as recently as June 9 (down from $4,300), maintaining medium-term bullishness on deglobalization, sovereign debt, and central bank reserve diversification. 18 Citi analysts added: "The consensus view remains constructive over the medium to long term on robust non-cyclical demand from increasing global geopolitical fragmentation, lingering sovereign debt and debasement concerns and sustaining central bank reserve diversification trend." 18
One structural anchor: the National Bank of Georgia announced it purchased $100 million in physical gold on June 11 — its first gold purchase since March–April 2024, lifting gold's share of its international reserves to 15.5% of a record $7.0 billion total. 20 The NBG noted that "central bank demand exhibits low price sensitivity, which primarily supports the stability of the gold price floor." 20 Bloomberg-tracked gold ETF holdings fell 88 tonnes year-to-date to 3,048 tonnes; COMEX managed money net long sits at roughly 171,000 contracts — below the one-year average of 194,000 but off the near-term trough of 149,000. 19
WASDE June 2026 (final): grains settle lower on South American supply build
USDA released the June 2026 WASDE at noon ET — later reissued as a v2 to correct a sugar delivery data error that had no bearing on grains or oilseeds. 21 The grain-relevant numbers landed mostly neutral-to-slightly-bearish, as flagged in advance by analysts. Both corn and soybeans settled lower on the day.
Corn ZCN6: settled 411.75¢, down 8.00¢
CBOT July corn closed at 411.75¢/bu, off 8.00¢ (−1.91%) on 278,140 contracts. 22 The WASDE showed U.S. 2026/27 corn ending stocks at 1.960 billion bushels — up just 3 mb from May's 1.957 bb, a negligible change driven by a bump in beginning stocks. 21 Production is projected at 15.995 bb (the second-largest on record), with yield unchanged at 183 bpa.
The real bearish signal was on the world balance sheet: global 2026/27 corn ending stocks rose to 281.22 million metric tons from 277.54 mmt in May — driven by Brazil (+3 mmt to 138.0 mmt, old-crop) and Argentina (+2 mmt to 61.0 mmt). 21 DTN lead analyst Rhett Montgomery characterized the domestic reading as "neutral for corn" while flagging the global number as "moderately bearish." 23 Bree Baatz of Terrain consultancy noted: "USDA essentially did a copy and paste...the June report being uneventful." 24
Export sales for the week ended June 4 showed old-crop corn bookings of 1.000 million MT (+13% week-over-week), a constructive number. 25 New-crop corn bookings came in at 926,900 MT for the same week. 26 It was not enough to offset the South American supply overhang on a day when macro headwinds (Iran peace = risk-off for energy-driven inflation premium) also pressured agricultural risk appetite. The 5-day loss stands at −3.01%; 1-month at −12.13%.
Soybeans ZSN6: settled 1,115.00¢, down 8.50¢
CBOT July soybeans closed at 1,115.00¢/bu, down 8.50¢ (−0.76%) on 113,190 contracts. 27 U.S. 2026/27 ending stocks held at 310 mb — unchanged from May — with production projected at a record-equaling 4.435 bb on 53.0 bpa yield. 21
The bearish element came from the world table: Argentina's 2025/26 old-crop production was raised 2 mmt to 50.0 mmt. Baatz assessed this as leaning "a little bearish on the export demand for soybean as we move ahead. I don't think any of that is a surprise." 24
China's soybean import target for 2026/27 held at 114.00 mmt — but that number has been increasingly hollow. Export sales data for the week ended June 4 showed old-crop soybean bookings of just 211,300 MT, down 24% week-over-week and 18% below the four-week average, with zero Chinese purchases for roughly the 120th consecutive day. 2528 Cumulative soybean exports stand at 1.476 bb versus 1.785 bb at this point last year — a 17% deficit. The WASDE keeps the official export projection unchanged, which means the gap between USDA's annual target and the actual pace either closes in a buying surge or gets cut in a future report.
Wheat: tightest U.S. winter crop since 1965
Not a futures move story today — CBOT wheat did not figure prominently in the session's price action — but the WASDE data is worth flagging for longer-dated positioning. U.S. winter wheat production came in at 1.029 billion bushels, down 27% from 2025 and the smallest U.S. winter wheat crop since 1965. 21 Hard red winter wheat production was cut to 497 mb (−3% from May). Despite that, the USDA lowered the U.S. 2026/27 farmgate price forecast to $6.00/bu from $6.50 in May, because world wheat ending stocks rose to a record 275.42 mmt — Russia contributed, with its crop raised 2 mmt to 88.0 mmt. 21 Baatz noted that "because the world has record amounts of wheat supplies, there's really not going to be much of a price impact for U.S. producers to the upside." 24
Copper HGN6: up 2% on risk-on, finishing strongest of the metals
COMEX July copper settled at approximately $6.39/lb (+$0.12, +2.00% from the June 10 official settle of $6.2670). 329 The CME Globex last print was $6.3925 at 5:12 PM CT; open interest stood at 100,705. The session low of $6.1715 (reached briefly in thin overnight trading) was fully recovered and then some — a clean rejection of the down move that started June 8 when the Section 232 15% tariff became effective.
Copper's move today looks more like a general risk-on rotation (Dow +929, VIX −12.47% to 19.45) than a copper-specific fundamental change. The tariff is fully priced in; the next catalyst to watch is whether Chinese industrial demand data — likely via June PMI releases later in the month — confirms the copper demand picture that bulls have been pricing. Year-to-date, HGN6 remains +24% from January levels.
Macro: Dow +929, VIX collapses, ECB hikes, PPI hot
The macro overlay for this session:
- Equities: Dow Jones closed at 50,848.75 (+929.60, +1.86%); S&P 500 at 7,394.07 (+1.75%); Nasdaq at 25,809.66 (+2.54%). 12 Trump acknowledged the moves in his Oval Office remarks: "Stock market's up a thousand points. That means they like the deal." (Actual gain at the time: approximately 929 points.) 4
- Volatility: VIX fell −12.47% to 19.45, breaking out of the elevated-risk zone that had prevailed since the conflict escalated in late May. 12
- Bonds: 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.456% (from 4.523% at the morning's PPI-driven peak), as the Iran deal narrative pushed flight-to-safety bids into bonds. DXY fell to 99.70 (−0.23%). 12
- ECB: The European Central Bank raised its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% — its first hike since 2023 — citing energy-driven inflation. President Christine Lagarde said: "underlying inflation ticked up." The ECB raised its 2026 inflation forecast and cut its GDP growth projection. 3031
- Jobless claims: 229,000 initial claims for the week ended June 6, above the 220,000 consensus — a 4½-month high. 16
- World Bank: Lowered its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5% — the weakest since the COVID years — and flagged a 4% average global inflation rate. Chief Economist Indermit Gill said: "War anywhere is bad for poor people everywhere." 4
The FOMC enters its June 16–17 meeting (Kevin Warsh's first as chair) with roughly 67% market-implied probability of at least one rate hike by December 2026. A hold next week is consensus; the debate is whether Warsh's statement language shifts in a hawkish direction. 30
Agriculture: screwworm 7th case, FDA approves pet drug, NovoFly doubles output
The New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) case count is now 7 — confirmed by USDA's dashboard update through June 9 — with infections in 4 Texas counties and 1 New Mexico county (Lea County: one dog). The breakdown: 5 cattle, 1 goat, 1 dog. 32
Three developments today:
- FDA issued an Emergency Use Authorization for a generic over-the-counter NWS treatment drug for dogs, puppies, cats, and kittens weighing at least 2 lbs and at least 4 weeks old — the first generic animal drug authorized against NWS. 32
- EPA approved NovoFly, a male-only sterile fly strain developed by USDA Agricultural Research Service. Because sterile fly programs previously produced equal numbers of males and females (only males contribute to the suppression), shifting to 100% male output doubles effective output overnight. USDA Undersecretary Scott Hutchins stated: "By going to one hundred percent male sterile males, we're able to instantly double our production." 33
- Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins visited Rock Creek Ranch near La Pryor, TX — the site of the first confirmed U.S. case — where the infected calf has been treated and is recovering. She said: "We've beaten it before, and we will beat it again. We have a lot of new things coming online." 32
Mexico's Metapa sterile fly facility is expected to begin production this month, targeting 100 million flies per week by end-2026. USDA's NWS-dedicated staff count has grown from 10 in January 2025 to over 120 currently. 33
Key levels heading into June 12
| Commodity | Contract | Today's settle | Support | Resistance | Key variable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | GCQ6 | $4,232.90 | $4,075 (Hansen/Saxo); $4,046 (session low) | $4,500; $4,600 (50-DMA) | Iran deal confirmation or collapse |
| WTI | CLN6 | $86.42 | $85.32 (extended-hours low); $85.74 (session low) | $90.03 (prior settle); $93.64 (today's peak) | Hormuz re-opening confirmation; next EIA June 18 |
| Brent | @LCO.1 | $89.13 | $88.44 (session low) | $93.10 (prior settle); $95.50 (today's high) | Iran/Netanyahu response to deal framework |
| Corn | ZCN6 | 411.75¢ | 410.50¢ (session low) | 420.00¢; 430.00¢ | China export demand; July WASDE weather capture |
| Soybeans | ZSN6 | 1,115.00¢ | 1,108.25¢ (session low) | 1,125.00¢; 1,150.00¢ | China zero-buy streak end; Argentina crop revisions |
| Copper | HGN6 | ~$6.39 | $6.1715 (overnight low) | $6.50; $6.68 (52-week high) | China June PMI; Section 232 tariff pass-through |
Levels based on today's session data. COMEX gold official settlement pending CME publication.
Cover image: Kharg Island location map with satellite inset, via Anadolu Agency/OSM, March 2026. Map source: OSM. 4
References
- 1MarketWatch: CLN26 Crude Oil Jul 2026
marketwatch.com
- 2CME Group: Gold Futures Settlements
cmegroup.com
- 3CME Group: Copper Futures Settlements
cmegroup.com
- 4
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- 6
- 7NYT: Iran War Live Updates – June 11 morning
nytimes.com
- 8
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- 10Reuters: Middle East news – June 11
reuters.com
- 11
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- 13The National: US strikes targets across Iran
thenationalnews.com
- 14
- 15
- 16
- 17MarketWatch: GCQ26 Gold Aug 2026 overview
marketwatch.com
- 18
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- 20
- 21USDA: WASDE June 2026 (v2)
usda.gov
- 22MarketWatch: C00 Corn continuous contract
marketwatch.com
- 23
- 24Brownfield Ag News: June WASDE delivers few surprises
brownfieldagnews.com
- 25Brownfield Ag News: Mostly mixed week for export sales, corn up
brownfieldagnews.com
- 26CNBC: @C.1 Corn Jul '26 quote
cnbc.com
- 27MarketWatch: S00 Soybeans continuous contract
marketwatch.com
- 28
- 29CNBC: @HG.1 Copper Jul '26 quote
cnbc.com
- 30CNBC: Economic news – ECB hike
cnbc.com
- 31MarketWatch: Economy & Politics – ECB coverage
marketwatch.com
- 32
- 33
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