MLB Power Rankings: Milwaukee sweeps the Dodgers for the pennant, and Tampa Bay is one win from the World Series
All 30 clubs ranked after Milwaukee swept Los Angeles for the National League pennant, with FanGraphs' title odds and the sportsbook prices side by side for the three teams still playing.
Milwaukee ended the Dodgers' season on Thursday night at Dodger Stadium with a 6-4 win, and swept the National League Championship Series in four games. 1 The Brewers are in the World Series for the first time since 1982.
Thursday was their 170th meaningful game of the year and their 110th win. 1 The franchise had waited 44 years for another pennant.
One question remains in the American League. Tampa Bay leads Cleveland 3-2 and plays Game 6 at Tropicana Field on Monday night. 2
How this board is built
Three inputs set this week's order, and each one carries a date.
MLB.com's panel ranked the four remaining clubs on Oct. 11, the most recent team ranking from MLB.com, ESPN, The Athletic or FanGraphs. 3 FanGraphs refreshed its World Series probabilities at 6:56 a.m. ET on Oct. 19. 4 Every score below comes from MLB's official game log. 5
MLB.com's panel listed the four clubs still alive on Oct. 11 in this order: Milwaukee, Los Angeles, Tampa Bay, Cleveland. With Los Angeles gone, its order among the survivors is Milwaukee, Tampa Bay, Cleveland. FanGraphs' numbers reach the same order this morning.
Clubs whose seasons are over keep the place they held when they were eliminated. They are ordered by how far they advanced, then by regular-season record.
The week's games
| Date | Series | Game | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 12 | NLCS | Game 2 | Milwaukee 7, Los Angeles 4 |
| Oct. 12 | ALCS | Game 1 | Cleveland 7, Tampa Bay 3 |
| Oct. 13 | ALCS | Game 2 | Tampa Bay 3, Cleveland 1 |
| Oct. 14 | NLCS | Game 3 | Milwaukee 6, Los Angeles 2 |
| Oct. 15 | NLCS | Game 4 | Milwaukee 6, Los Angeles 4 — Brewers win series 4-0 |
| Oct. 15 | ALCS | Game 3 | Cleveland 3, Tampa Bay 2 |
| Oct. 17 | ALCS | Game 4 | Tampa Bay 7, Cleveland 3 |
| Oct. 18 | ALCS | Game 5 | Tampa Bay 3, Cleveland 1 — Rays lead series 3-2 |
Game 4 of the ALCS was rained out on Oct. 16 and played the following night. 5 The makeup erased the travel day before Game 5, and the clubs now face the chance of playing four nights in a row, through a Game 7 on Tuesday. 6
The board
Records and run differentials are final regular-season totals. 7 October results are from MLB's game log. 5 The change column compares places with last week's board.
| Rank | Club | 2026 | Run diff. | October | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brewers | 103-59 | +214 | Won NLCS 4-0, in World Series | 0 |
| 2 | Rays | 98-64 | +86 | ALCS, lead 3-2 | +1 |
| 3 | Guardians | 85-77 | +11 | ALCS, trail 2-3 | +1 |
| 4 | Dodgers | 100-62 | +201 | Lost NLCS 0-4 | -2 |
| 5 | Yankees | 93-68 | +138 | Lost ALDS 0-3 | 0 |
| 6 | Braves | 94-68 | +116 | Lost NLDS 1-3 | 0 |
| 7 | Padres | 91-71 | +41 | Lost NLDS 1-3 | 0 |
| 8 | White Sox | 84-78 | +56 | Lost ALDS 2-3 | 0 |
| 9 | Cubs | 89-73 | +147 | Lost Wild Card 0-2 | 0 |
| 10 | Red Sox | 87-75 | +78 | Lost Wild Card 0-2 | 0 |
| 11 | Phillies | 88-74 | +15 | Lost Wild Card 1-2 | 0 |
| 12 | Astros | 81-81 | -32 | Lost Wild Card 0-2 | 0 |
| 13 | Diamondbacks | 86-76 | +9 | Missed playoffs | 0 |
| 14 | Rangers | 80-82 | -46 | Missed playoffs | 0 |
| 15 | Pirates | 82-80 | +28 | Missed playoffs | 0 |
| 16 | Blue Jays | 79-83 | -46 | Missed playoffs | 0 |
| 17 | Marlins | 80-82 | +3 | Missed playoffs | 0 |
| 18 | Orioles | 79-82 | -21 | Missed playoffs | 0 |
| 19 | Cardinals | 77-85 | -29 | Missed playoffs | 0 |
| 20 | Tigers | 76-86 | +71 | Missed playoffs | 0 |
| 21 | Nationals | 77-85 | +6 | Missed playoffs | 0 |
| 22 | Mariners | 76-86 | -58 | Missed playoffs | 0 |
| 23 | Mets | 74-88 | -32 | Missed playoffs | 0 |
| 24 | Twins | 77-85 | -58 | Missed playoffs | 0 |
| 25 | Reds | 75-87 | -160 | Missed playoffs | 0 |
| 26 | Royals | 69-93 | -120 | Missed playoffs | 0 |
| 27 | Giants | 65-97 | -91 | Missed playoffs | 0 |
| 28 | Athletics | 64-98 | -238 | Missed playoffs | 0 |
| 29 | Angels | 62-100 | -97 | Missed playoffs | 0 |
| 30 | Rockies | 58-104 | -192 | Missed playoffs | 0 |
Why the board barely moved
Los Angeles lost the four games by a combined 21-11, and led in all four of them. 58 Milwaukee hit the fewest home runs in the National League this season, 154, or 50 fewer than the Dodgers, then out-homered them 7-1 in the series. 8
The payrolls were $522.7 million for Los Angeles and $144.5 million for Milwaukee, a gap of $378.2 million. 8
The Dodgers won 100 games and carried a plus-201 run differential, the second-best profile in baseball. 7 Their two-place fall came because their season ended while three others continued.
Tampa Bay and Cleveland each climb one place for the same reason. The Rays won three of the last four games, two of them in Cleveland. 2
Cleveland has scored seven runs across its last three games. 5 These Guardians already came back from 0-2 down in the Division Series against the White Sox. 2
Every club from fifth to 30th held its place. Those seasons ended between Sept. 27 and Oct. 10, and none of those clubs played a game this week. 5
The three clubs still playing
| Club | 2026 | Postseason | FanGraphs title chance | DraftKings | Next game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 103-59, +214 | 7-1, +13 | 56.9% | -165 | World Series Game 1, Fri. Oct. 23, at home |
| Rays | 98-64, +86 | 6-2, +8 | 32.4% | +180 | ALCS Game 6, Mon. Oct. 19, at home, up 3-2 |
| Guardians | 85-77, +11 | 5-5, +5 | 10.7% | 12-1 | ALCS Game 6, Mon. Oct. 19, on the road, down 2-3 |
Postseason records and run margins are computed from MLB's game log. 5 Title chances are FanGraphs'. 4 Prices are DraftKings', through ESPN. 9
Milwaukee. The Brewers have seven days off before they host Game 1 of the World Series on Oct. 23. 810
Brandon Woodruff, out with right shoulder inflammation, has been throwing off a mound and hopes to face hitters before the World Series. 11 He is a long-shot candidate for the World Series roster.
Jake Bauers was named the NLCS MVP. 12 Jackson Chourio set the franchise's postseason home run record during the run. 13
Milwaukee's 103 wins and plus-214 differential were both the best in baseball, and its expected record, which MLB derives from runs scored and allowed, is also 103-59. 7
Tampa Bay. Freddy Peralta starts Game 6. Since Aug. 26 he is 6-0 with a 0.79 ERA in nine appearances, eight of them starts. 14 He threw six scoreless innings in Game 2 at Tropicana Field. 14 A win on Monday sends the Rays to their third World Series, and their first since 2020. 2
Drew Rasmussen has allowed three runs in 21 innings across three postseason starts, and he held Cleveland to one run over seven on Sunday. 6 Bryan Baker, who saved 41 games with a 1.44 ERA this season, closed out Game 5. 6
The Rays won 98 games and outscored opponents by 86 runs, eight wins more than that differential predicts. 7 Their 2023 team had a better record and scored one run across two playoff losses. 15
Cleveland. The Guardians start a bullpen game, likely with Slade Cecconi. 14 Gavin Williams, who has struck out 33 in 16 2/3 innings this postseason, will not start on short rest and lines up for a Game 7. 2
Colin Holderman is out for the postseason after wrist surgery. 11 Cleveland's 85 wins came with a plus-11 differential, and its expected record is 82-80. 7
Where the model and the market disagree
FanGraphs gives Milwaukee 56.9%, Tampa Bay 32.4% and Cleveland 10.7%. 4
DraftKings prices the three at -165, +180 and 12-1. 9 Strip out the book's margin and those prices imply roughly 59%, 34% and 7%.
The model and the market sit within three points of each other on Milwaukee and Tampa Bay. On Cleveland they are three and a half points apart, with the model the more generous of the two.
DraftKings also makes Tampa Bay -400 to reach the World Series and Cleveland +310. 9
What's next
Game 6 is Monday at 8:08 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field, and a Game 7 would follow on Tuesday. 14 In a best-of-seven tied 2-2, the Game 5 winner has gone on to take the series 46 of 69 times. 2
The World Series opens Friday, Oct. 23, at American Family Field. 10 Milwaukee holds home field against either American League club, which puts Games 1, 2, 6 and 7 in Milwaukee. 10
Either result ends a long wait. Milwaukee and Tampa Bay have never won a World Series, and Cleveland last won one in 1948. 2
References
- 1
- 2Rays win ALCS Game 5 2026
mlb.com
- 3
- 4MLB Playoff Odds 2026: All 30 Teams
fangraphs.com
- 5MLB Stats API schedule, Oct. 11-20, 2026
statsapi.mlb.com
- 6
- 7MLB Stats API final standings, 2026
statsapi.mlb.com
- 8
- 9
- 10
- 11Baseball injury updates
mlb.com
- 12
- 13
- 14
- 15
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