Stablecoin daily: panic stops
Big-3 stablecoin supply was nearly flat over the extended Jun 26–28 window, falling only $25.4M after the prior $1.12B drawdown. USDT's Ethereum-led shock stopped, but Solana and Hyperliquid USDC leakage, a concentrated IBIT outflow, and Hormuz stablecoin-payment risk keep the liquidity read cautious.
Data cutoff: stablecoin supply around 8:00 a.m. ET on Jun 28; BTC/ETH prices around 9:08 a.m. ET; Fear & Greed latest daily print at 8:00 p.m. ET on Jun 27. This issue covers the extended window from 8:28 a.m. ET on Jun 26 to 8:00 a.m. ET on Jun 28.
The panic did not compound. After the prior daily window pulled $1.12B out of the Big-3 stablecoin basket, USDT, USDC, and DAI together slipped only $25.4M over the next two days, ending at $263.57B. 1 That is a flat supply read, not a fresh liquidity impulse.
The tape is still not clean. USDT's violent Ethereum reversal stopped, but USDC kept leaking from Solana and Hyperliquid. BTC reclaimed $60K by only a few dollars, Fear & Greed bounced from 13 to 18 while staying in Extreme Fear, and the latest U.S. spot BTC ETF flow was still −$444.5M on Jun 26. 1234 The working read is local panic exhaustion, not a confirmed liquidity turn.
Big-3 scorecard: almost flat after the shock
| Asset | Current supply | 2-day change | 7-day change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDT | $184.89B 1 | −$140.83M 1 | −$1.24B 1 | The prior Ethereum-led drawdown stopped after Jun 27. |
| USDC | $73.83B 1 | +$109.92M 1 | −$1.07B 1 | Two-day recovery, but the latest 24h print was still negative. |
| DAI | $4.85B 1 | +$5.48M 1 | +$377.09M 1 | The weekly expansion held while the daily change flattened. |
| Big-3 total | $263.57B 1 | −$25.43M 1 | −$1.93B 1 | Stabilization after the prior $1B-plus drawdown. |
USDT is the main difference from the preceding window. Total USDT supply was $184.89B on Jun 28, and the latest 24h change was only −$1.63, compared with a −$140.83M move from Jun 26 to Jun 27. 1 Ethereum USDT was still down $10.66M over 24 hours, but that is small beside the prior $971M Ethereum reversal. 1 Tron USDT stayed fixed at $87.75B, which keeps Tron as the stable USDT anchor in this window. 1
USDC gave back part of its rebound. USDC supply ended at $73.83B, up $109.92M over two days but down $47.18M over the latest 24 hours. 1 That split matters because the two-day number says the immediate burn was absorbed, while the latest daily number says demand has not clearly flipped positive.
DAI was steadier. DAI supply was $4.85B, with a −$0.98M latest 24h change and a +$377.09M seven-day change. 1 Ethereum DAI added $3.03M over 24 hours while Polygon DAI lost $3.16M, so the DAI story remains a chain rotation more than a broad redemption. 1
Chain flows: stabilization at the center, leakage at the edges
The best news is Ethereum USDT. Ethereum held $78.90B of USDT on Jun 28, with a −$10.66M 24h change after the preceding window's −$971M move. 1 That does not restore the lost liquidity, but it does end the most aggressive part of the last drawdown.
The weaker read is in USDC. Solana USDC was $7.02B, down $40.46M over 24 hours after recovering above $7B in the prior window. 1 Hyperliquid USDC was $5.73B, down $16.31M over 24 hours and still below the $6B level it had previously held. 1 If these two chains keep losing USDC while aggregate supply is flat, the signal is rotation away from higher-beta venues rather than renewed stablecoin demand.
The positive pockets were smaller. Polygon USDC added $16.21M, Base USDC added $8.34M, Ink USDC added $7.93M, and Sonic USDC added $5.99M over the latest 24 hours. 1 Arbitrum was mixed: USDT rose $8.18M, while USDC fell $13.43M, leaving the combined Big-3 read down about $5.26M. 1
Two zero-balance moves should not be over-interpreted without chain-level confirmation. Sui USDT fell from $14.05M a week earlier to $0, and Tempo USDC moved from $9.07M to $0 in the latest daily window. 1 DeFiLlama supply data confirms the balance changes, but the research pull did not identify a public explanation for whether these were bridge migrations, redemptions, or data reclassifications.
Macro confirmation: less panic, still weak
BTC was $60,004.00 around 9:08 a.m. ET on Jun 28, down 0.78% over 24 hours and 6.32% over seven days. 2 The price was about $883 above the Jun 26 checkpoint, but it was only a few dollars above the $60K line. 2 ETH was $1,573.95 around 9:06 a.m. ET, down 0.83% over 24 hours and 8.66% over seven days. 5 ETH/BTC was 0.026231, slightly above the Jun 26 checkpoint of 0.0259 but still low enough to show ETH underperformance across the week. 25
Sentiment improved from the floor without leaving the fear regime. The Fear & Greed Index moved from 13 at the Jun 26 checkpoint to 15 for the Jun 26 daily print and 18 for the Jun 27 daily print, with all three readings still classified as Extreme Fear. 3 The index did not retest the cycle low of 12, but the latest print was still below the 25 threshold that separates Extreme Fear from Fear. 3
ETF flows keep the read cautious. U.S. spot BTC ETFs lost $444.5M on Jun 26, down from $691.7M the prior session, but the entire Jun 26 outflow came from IBIT. 4 FBTC, ARKB, BTCO, BITB, EZBC, BRRR, HODL, BTCW, MSBT, GBTC, and BTC all printed $0.0M for the day. 4 That looks less like broad panic selling than a concentrated redemption, but it still extends the seven-trading-day BTC ETF outflow run to −$1.96B from Jun 17 through Jun 26. 4
ETH ETF selling nearly stopped. U.S. spot ETH ETFs lost $12.8M on Jun 26, down 84% from $81.9M the prior session, and ETHA was the only fund with non-zero flow. 6 BTC and ETH ETFs together lost $457.3M on Jun 26, a 41% reduction from the previous combined $773.6M outflow. 46 The ETF channel is less bad than it was, but it has not turned positive.
Stablecoin policy risk moved into the liquidity read
The CBDC ban clock is still running. Trump cancelled the Jun 24 signing ceremony for the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, which includes a Federal Reserve CBDC ban through Dec. 31, 2030, after tying the signing to the SAVE America Act. 7 The housing bill passed the Senate 85-5 and the House 358-32; if the reported Jun 24 presentation timing holds and there is no signature or veto, the 10-day presentment clock that excludes Sundays points to an early-July automatic enactment path. 7 The private-stablecoin carveout matters because the ban exempts open, permissionless, private currencies rather than restricting USDT or USDC directly. 7
GENIUS Act implementation also accelerated. Sidley Austin reported that OCC, FDIC, NCUA, FinCEN, Treasury, and OFAC have published proposed GENIUS Act rules, while the Federal Reserve rule remains outstanding. 8 The FinCEN and banking-agency customer-identification proposal has an Aug. 21 comment deadline, while the OCC conforming proposal published in the Federal Register on Jun 24 has a Jul. 24 comment deadline. 89 For liquidity readers, the practical point is timing: issuer compliance costs and reserve/redemption rulemaking are moving from legislative risk into implementation risk.
The geopolitical tail risk is less routine. Iran said foreign vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz must follow routes designated by its armed forces, and Crypto Briefing reported that Iran proposed a passage toll of about $1 per barrel payable in Bitcoin or stablecoins. 1011 At a pre-crisis flow of 20M barrels per day, that toll design would imply $20M of daily crypto-denominated revenue if fully applied. 11 The direct stablecoin issue is not oil pricing; it is whether sanctioned maritime payments create blocking or compliance decisions for stablecoin issuers.
Next-window watchlist
- Ethereum USDT: Ethereum USDT was $78.90B with a −$10.66M 24h move. 1 Another quiet print would confirm that the prior −$971M reversal was a one-window shock rather than a continuing drain. 1
- Solana and Hyperliquid USDC: Solana USDC was $7.02B after a −$40.46M latest daily change, while Hyperliquid USDC was $5.73B after a −$16.31M latest daily change. 1 If both keep leaking, the market is still de-risking through higher-beta venues.
- IBIT concentration: IBIT accounted for the entire −$444.5M BTC ETF outflow on Jun 26. 4 A second IBIT-only draw would be a different signal from one large redemption clearing the tape.
- Fear & Greed: The index improved to 18 but stayed in Extreme Fear. 3 A move above 25 would matter more than another small bounce inside the same regime.
The supply side has stopped worsening at the aggregate level. The market read now depends on whether flat stablecoin supply can survive another ETF session and whether USDC outflows from Solana and Hyperliquid keep pulling liquidity away from risk venues.
References
- 1DeFiLlama Stablecoins Dashboard
defillama.com
- 2CoinPaprika Bitcoin market page
coinpaprika.com
- 3Alternative.me Fear & Greed Index
alternative.me
- 4Farside Investors Bitcoin ETF flows
farside.co.uk
- 5CoinPaprika Ethereum market page
coinpaprika.com
- 6Farside Investors Ethereum ETF flows
farside.co.uk
- 7
- 8
- 9Federal Register: OCC proposed stablecoin AML/CFT rule
federalregister.gov
- 10
- 11
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