2026-08-21 09:00 科创50ETF外部事件：美国制造业与领先指标更新

{ "schema_version": "1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-21T09:14:04+08:00", "asset_keys": ["STAR50"], "instrument": { "name": "科创 50ETF", "exchange_symbol": "SSE.588000" }, "events": [ { "event_id": "philadelphiafed-macro-20260820-mbos-august", "title": "费城联储 8 月制造业活动指数升至 47.4", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-20T12:30:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T12:30:00Z", "event_type": "macro_release", "asset_keys": ["STAR50"], "direction_score": {"STAR50": 0}, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "source_publisher": "Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia", "release_time": "2026-08-20 8:30 a.m. ET", "survey_response_period": "2026-08-10 至 2026-08-17", "current_general_activity_index": "47.4（7 月 41.4）", "current_new_orders_index": "30.1（7 月 37.0）", "current_shipments_index": "27.7（7 月 33.7）", "employment_index": "27.9（7 月 10.0）", "prices_paid_index": "40.9（7 月 53.9）", "future_general_activity_index": "73.6（7 月 34.4）", "statistical_definition": "扩散指数等于报告增加的受访企业百分比减去报告减少的受访企业百分比；数据经季节调整。" }, "transmission_chain": "当前制造业活动指数升至 47.4 且未来活动指数升至 73.6→美国制造业与资本开支预期变量更新，同时新订单和出货指数回落→半导体与硬科技需求预期映射至科创 50ETF 价格。", "invalidation_conditions": "费城联储修订 2026 年 8 月调查数据，或后续制造业数据不再支持当前活动扩张；若新订单与出货指数继续明显下降，需求传导假设失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2026-08](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2026-08)](https://philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2026-08](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2026-08))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "conferenceboard-macro-20260820-us-lei-july", "title": "美国 7 月领先经济指标升至 99.5", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-20T14:00:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-20T14:00:00Z", "event_type": "macro_release", "asset_keys": ["STAR50"], "direction_score": {"STAR50": 1}, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "source_publisher": "The Conference Board", "release_time": "2026-08-20 10:00 a.m. ET", "lei_july_2026": "99.5（2016=100）", "lei_monthly_change": "+0.2%", "june_2026_change": "-0.1%（上修后）", "lei_six_month_growth": "+0.2%（2026 年 1 月至 7 月）", "cei_july_2026": "114.8（2016=100）", "lagging_index_july_2026": "120.4（2016=100，初值）" }, "transmission_chain": "美国 7 月 LEI 环比上升 0.2%且 2026 年 1 月至 7 月六个月增幅转为 0.2%→美国近端增长与 AI 投资驱动预期更新→科创 50ETF 成长股盈利预期和估值变量获得外部宏观输入。", "invalidation_conditions": "The Conference Board 修订 2026 年 7 月 LEI 或六个月增长率，或后续官方数据使该增长方向不再成立。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[conference-board.org/pdf_free/press/US%20LEI%20PRESS%20RELEASE-August%202026.pdf](https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/press/US%20LEI%20PRESS%20RELEASE-August%202026.pdf)](https://conference-board.org/pdf_free/press/US%20LEI%20PRESS%20RELEASE-August%202026.pdf](https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/press/US%20LEI%20PRESS%20RELEASE-August%202026.pdf))" ], "source_tier": "A" } ], "exclusions": [ "本窗口内未纳入无法从原始详情页同时核验发布时间、数字和允许传导链的候选。" ] }