Azuki beats the ETH bounce

Data window: Jun 28, 09:20 AM to Jul 3, 09:00 AM UTC-5. This briefing covers the shorter window since the Jun 28 issue, so the collection comparison uses the Jun 28 baseline and the Jul 3 cutoff rather than a full seven-day tape.

Ethereum (ETH) did the heavy lifting. ETH traded at $1,741.41 near the cutoff, up 10.38% from the Jun 28 baseline of $1,577.66; Bitcoin (BTC) rose 3.2% over the same reference window, and the ETH/BTC ratio expanded from 0.02630 to 0.02814. 12

That macro bid helped USD floor values, but it did not make the five NFT floors equally healthy. Azuki was the only tracked collection that outpaced ETH in ETH terms, rising 12.24% to 0.96 ETH, while Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) rose 3.87%, Pudgy Penguins fell 1.02%, CryptoPunks fell 3.85%, and Doodles fell 5.43%. 34567

ETH ETF flows also shifted from drag to support. The window total was still negative at -$13.7M, but the sequence changed from -$29.9M on Jun 29 and -$27.6M on Jun 30 to +$14.8M on Jul 1 and +$29.0M on Jul 2; the two inflow days totaled +$43.8M. 8 The trade read is therefore narrower than the USD charts imply: macro relief is real, but collection selection matters more this week.

Azuki has the cleanest momentum setup, but the floor is ahead of the bid. A trader looking for continuation should want one of two confirmations: a sustained 1.0 ETH area with the bid/floor ratio recovering from 0.899, or another volume expansion without listed share rising back above 4.6%. 3 Without that, the move can still be a thin repricing rather than a durable base.

BAYC is the steadier hold. Its bid/floor ratio recovered to 0.964 while listed share stayed at 3.2%, which is a better structure than the Jun 28 setup. 4 The problem is relative performance: BAYC gained 3.87% in ETH while ETH itself gained 10.44%, so holders got USD upside but gave up ETH purchasing power against spot. 14

Pudgy Penguins needs buyer depth to return. The floor slipped 1.02%, the top offer fell to 4.30 WETH, and the bid/floor ratio eased from 0.970 to 0.962 even as volume rose 51.0%. 5 That mix reads as activity without price control. A reclaim of the 4.50 ETH area with a bid back above 4.38 WETH would change the setup.

CryptoPunks is the danger chart for traders who rely on premium-sale headlines. The activity feed showed six trades at 40 ETH or higher, totaling roughly 360 ETH, but the collection floor still fell 3.85% and listed share rose to 11.1%. 612 The cleaner bullish signal would be a floor reclaim above 32.50 ETH with listed share no longer expanding.

Doodles remains exit-risk first. The collection had the worst ETH-denominated floor move in the group, and the USD floor gain of 4.4% did not keep pace with ETH's 10.44% rally. 17 Until Doodles reclaims the 0.44 ETH to 0.46 ETH zone with bid support, the tight 0.978 bid/floor ratio is more a sign of a lower market clearing level than a buy signal.

Cross-market confirmation is still unavailable. Blur returned an empty application shell for the BAYC collection page, and Magic Eden returned a 404 page at the tested ETH collection URL, so this briefing relies on OpenSea for floor, bid, listed share, owner, activity, and volume data. 1415

Wallet-level signals should be treated cautiously. The visible activity captures did not expose complete from/to wallet data, and each collection feed showed only a limited slice of trades. 910111213 The collection-level read is stronger than any conclusion about whether specific tracked wallets were active or silent.

The working ranking for this window is: Azuki for momentum, BAYC for cautious hold, Pudgy Penguins for bid-repair watch, CryptoPunks for distribution risk, and Doodles for exit-risk control.