恒生科技ETF 10:00窗口新增4条业绩预期事件 (2026)

[
  {
    "event_id": "cls-hk-20260812-tencent-q2-guidance",
    "title": "机构预计腾讯Q2营收2020亿至2024亿元",
    "event_time_utc": null,
    "event_time_quality": "day_only",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T01:12:00Z",
    "event_type": "earnings_guidance",
    "asset_keys": ["HSTECH"],
    "direction_score": {"HSTECH": 0},
    "confidence": 92,
    "horizon": "days",
    "raw_facts": {
      "source_attribution": "财联社汇总高盛、里昂证券、中银国际等机构前瞻；以下为机构预测，不是腾讯已公布的实际业绩",
      "company": "腾讯控股（00700.HK）",
      "earnings_date_local": "2026-08-12；腾讯官方投资者日历列示业绩公布及电话会时间为20:00（页面标注NY time）",
      "q2_revenue_forecast_rmb": "2020亿至2024亿元，同比增长10%",
      "adjusted_EBIT_forecast_rmb": "约756亿元，同比增长约9.1%",
      "domestic_games_revenue_forecast_rmb": "约444亿元，同比增长10%",
      "international_games_revenue_forecast_rmb": "约206亿元，同比增长9.8%",
      "advertising_revenue_forecast_rmb": "约422亿元，同比增长约20%",
      "fintech_and_business_services_revenue_forecast_rmb": "约606亿元，同比增长8%至9%",
      "2026_capex_forecast_rmb": "1600亿至2000亿元"
    },
    "transmission_chain": "腾讯Q2机构预测覆盖收入、游戏、广告和金融科技等核心指标→实际财报与预测的偏离将更新平台盈利和AI投入预期→腾讯权重股估值变化传导至HSTECH。",
    "invalidation_conditions": "若腾讯官方公布实际Q2业绩后该预测被结果事件取代，或财联社更正机构预测区间与数字，则本事件作废。",
    "source_urls": ["https://www.cls.cn/detail/2451890"],
    "source_tier": "B"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "cls-hk-20260812-alibaba-q2-guidance",
    "title": "机构预计阿里Q2收入增9%但经调整EBITA降33%",
    "event_time_utc": null,
    "event_time_quality": "day_only",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T01:12:00Z",
    "event_type": "earnings_guidance",
    "asset_keys": ["HSTECH"],
    "direction_score": {"HSTECH": 0},
    "confidence": 88,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": {
      "source_attribution": "财联社转述高盛预测；以下为机构预测，不是阿里巴巴已公布的实际业绩",
      "company": "阿里巴巴（09988.HK）",
      "next_earnings_date_local": "2026-08-20",
      "q2_revenue_forecast": "同比增长9%",
      "adjusted_EBITA_forecast_rmb": "同比下降33%至约260亿元",
      "cloud_revenue_growth_forecast": "约45%",
      "cloud_margin_forecast": "11.1%",
      "key_variables": "AI资本开支资金来源、GPUaaS利润空间、通义千问战略布局"
    },
    "transmission_chain": "阿里收入、经调整EBITA与云业务增速预测→实际业绩和AI商业化兑现度改变平台盈利预期→阿里权重股估值变化传导至HSTECH。",
    "invalidation_conditions": "若阿里巴巴官方公布首财季业绩后该预测被结果事件取代，或财联社更正高盛预测数字，则本事件作废。",
    "source_urls": ["https://www.cls.cn/detail/2451890"],
    "source_tier": "B"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "cls-hk-20260812-meituan-q2-guidance",
    "title": "机构预计美团Q2收入增10%经调整EBIT达58亿元",
    "event_time_utc": null,
    "event_time_quality": "day_only",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T01:12:00Z",
    "event_type": "earnings_guidance",
    "asset_keys": ["HSTECH"],
    "direction_score": {"HSTECH": 0},
    "confidence": 88,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": {
      "source_attribution": "财联社转述高盛预测；以下为机构预测，不是美团已公布的实际业绩",
      "company": "美团（03690.HK）",
      "q2_revenue_forecast": "同比增长10%",
      "adjusted_EBIT_forecast_rmb": "同比增长56%至约58亿元",
      "delivery_profit_per_order_forecast_rmb": "2026年至2028年分别为0.26元、0.80元、1.13元",
      "in_store_and_hotel_travel_margin_forecast": "约25%"
    },
    "transmission_chain": "美团收入、经调整EBIT和外卖单均利润预测→实际业绩将检验竞争强度与盈利修复速度→美团权重股盈利预期变化传导至HSTECH。",
    "invalidation_conditions": "若美团官方公布季度业绩后该预测被结果事件取代，或财联社更正高盛预测数字，则本事件作废。",
    "source_urls": ["https://www.cls.cn/detail/2451890"],
    "source_tier": "B"
  },
  {
    "event_id": "cls-hk-20260812-jd-q2-guidance",
    "title": "机构预计京东Q2收入降3%但经调整EBIT增至62亿元",
    "event_time_utc": null,
    "event_time_quality": "day_only",
    "published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T01:12:00Z",
    "event_type": "earnings_guidance",
    "asset_keys": ["HSTECH"],
    "direction_score": {"HSTECH": 0},
    "confidence": 88,
    "horizon": "weeks",
    "raw_facts": {
      "source_attribution": "财联社转述机构预测；以下为机构预测，不是京东已公布的实际业绩",
      "company": "京东集团（09618.HK）",
      "q2_revenue_forecast": "同比下降3%",
      "adjusted_EBIT_forecast_rmb": "同比增长587%至约62亿元",
      "key_variables": "零售增长前景、Joybuy国际扩张、股东回报政策"
    },
    "transmission_chain": "京东收入与经调整EBIT预测→实际业绩将检验降本增效能否抵消收入压力→京东权重股盈利预期变化传导至HSTECH。",
    "invalidation_conditions": "若京东官方公布季度业绩后该预测被结果事件取代，或财联社更正机构预测数字，则本事件作废。",
    "source_urls": ["https://www.cls.cn/detail/2451890"],
    "source_tier": "B"
  }
]
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