截至8月10日11时的7条豆粕ETF结构化事件

[ { "event_id": "20260716_nbs_hog_inventory_total_42491wan", "title": "二季度末全国生猪存栏 42491 万头", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-07-16T10:00:00Z", "event_type": "hog_inventory", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": [ {"metric": "全国生猪存栏", "value": 42491, "unit": "万头", "period": "2026 年二季度末", "comparison": "同比增加 45 万头，增长 0.1%"}, {"metric": "publication_time", "value": "2026-07-16T10:00:00Z", "unit": "UTC", "period": "国家统计局页面发布时间"} ], "transmission_chain": [ "生猪存栏同比小幅增加→饲料端存量需求未出现明显收缩→豆粕需求信号中性" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续农业农村部或国家统计局修正二季度末生猪存栏数字", "饲料产量或豆粕添加比例出现同周期明显变化" ], "source_urls": ["https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfbhjd/202607/t20260716_1964140.html"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "20260803_usda_soybean_blooming_88pct", "title": "美国大豆开花率升至 88%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-03T00:00:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": [ {"metric": "大豆开花率", "value": 88, "unit": "%", "period": "截至 2026-08-02，18 州合计", "comparison": "前一周 80%，2025 年同期 84%，五年均值 84%"}, {"metric": "report_date", "value": "2026-08-03", "unit": "date", "period": "USDA Crop Progress"} ], "transmission_chain": [ "开花进度快于五年均值→生长阶段推进更充分→天气风险尚未消失但供应预期的短期不确定性下降→豆粕 ETF 偏空一档" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续大豆优良率下降或关键生长期出现高温干旱异常", "USDA 修正开花进度数据" ], "source_urls": ["[https://esmis.[nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796007/prog3126.pdf](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796007/prog3126.pdf)](https://nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796007/prog3126.pdf](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796007/prog3126.pdf))"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "20260803_usda_soybean_podset_62pct", "title": "美国大豆结荚率升至 62%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-03T00:00:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": [ {"metric": "大豆结荚率", "value": 62, "unit": "%", "period": "截至 2026-08-02，18 州合计", "comparison": "前一周 47%，2025 年同期 56%，五年均值 55%"}, {"metric": "week_over_week_change", "value": 15, "unit": "percentage points", "period": "截至 2026-08-02", "comparison": "较前一周上升 15 个百分点"} ], "transmission_chain": [ "结荚进度较前一周快 15 个百分点→作物生长进度领先五年均值 7 个百分点→单产天气敏感期的供应预期偏宽→豆粕 ETF 偏空一档" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "结荚后遭遇异常高温、干旱或病虫害并导致优良率下修", "USDA 修正结荚进度数据" ], "source_urls": ["[https://esmis.[nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796007/prog3126.pdf](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796007/prog3126.pdf)](https://nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796007/prog3126.pdf](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796007/prog3126.pdf))"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "20260803_usda_soybean_goodexcellent_63pct", "title": "美国大豆优良率维持 63%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-03T00:00:00Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": [ {"metric": "Good", "value": 52, "unit": "%", "period": "截至 2026-08-02，18 州合计", "comparison": "前一周 52%，2025 年同期 54%"}, {"metric": "Excellent", "value": 11, "unit": "%", "period": "截至 2026-08-02，18 州合计", "comparison": "前一周 11%，2025 年同期 15%"}, {"metric": "Good_plus_Excellent", "value": 63, "unit": "%", "period": "截至 2026-08-02，18 州合计", "comparison": "由 52%+11%计算，前一周同为 63%"} ], "transmission_chain": [ "优良率合计周环比不变→供应质量预期没有新增恶化或改善→对豆粕 ETF 的边际方向中性" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "下一期优良率合计出现明显周度变动", "后续天气异常改变单产预期" ], "source_urls": ["[https://esmis.[nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796007/prog3126.pdf](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796007/prog3126.pdf)](https://nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796007/prog3126.pdf](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796007/prog3126.pdf))"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "20260806_usda_cn_soy_sales_122000mt", "title": "USDA 报告对华销售 12.2 万吨大豆", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-06T00:00:00Z", "event_type": "usda_report", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": [ {"metric": "reported_soybean_sales", "value": 122000, "unit": "metric tons", "period": "MY 2026/2027", "destination": "China"}, {"metric": "announcement_date", "value": "2026-08-06", "unit": "date", "period": "USDA FAS Export Sales Announcement"} ], "transmission_chain": [ "对华新销售 12.2 万吨→美国大豆出口需求增加→美豆需求端获得支撑→豆粕 ETF 成本端短线偏多" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续出口销售取消或同口径销售明显转弱", "美豆产量或国内压榨供应的新增利空完全抵消出口需求" ], "source_urls": ["[https://www.[fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-94](https://www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-94)](https://fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-94](https://www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-94))"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "20260807_usda_cn_soy_sales_238000mt", "title": "USDA 报告对华销售 23.8 万吨大豆", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-07T00:00:00Z", "event_type": "usda_report", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": [ {"metric": "reported_soybean_sales", "value": 238000, "unit": "metric tons", "period": "MY 2026/2027", "destination": "China"}, {"metric": "announcement_date", "value": "2026-08-07", "unit": "date", "period": "USDA FAS Export Sales Announcement"} ], "transmission_chain": [ "对华新销售 23.8 万吨→美国大豆出口需求增加→需求端对美豆价格形成支撑→豆粕 ETF 短线偏多" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续出口销售取消或周度净销售明显低于预期", "产区天气改善并使供应端利空占主导" ], "source_urls": ["[https://www.[fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-and-mexico-11](https://www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-and-mexico-11)](https://fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-and-mexico-11](https://www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-and-mexico-11))"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "20260716_nbs_breeding_sow_inventory_3780wan", "title": "二季度末能繁母猪存栏 3780 万头", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-07-16T10:00:00Z", "event_type": "hog_inventory", "asset_keys": ["SOYMEAL_ETF"], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": [ {"metric": "能繁母猪存栏", "value": 3780, "unit": "万头", "period": "2026 年二季度末", "comparison": "同比减少 263 万头，下降 6.5%"}, {"metric": "publication_time", "value": "2026-07-16T10:00:00Z", "unit": "UTC", "period": "国家统计局页面发布时间"} ], "transmission_chain": [ "能繁母猪存栏同比下降 6.5%→未来仔猪与生猪产能基础收缩→饲料需求中期偏弱→豆粕 ETF 需求端偏空" ], "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续能繁母猪存栏回升或生猪出栏效率提升抵消产能收缩", "饲料产量或豆粕添加比例出现明显上升" ], "source_urls": ["https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfbhjd/202607/t20260716_1964140.html"], "source_tier": "A" } ]