2026-08-19 14:30｜黄金4337.59美元，霍尔木兹通行降至6艘

{ "window_start_utc": "2026-08-19T01:30:00Z", "window_end_utc": "2026-08-19T06:30:00Z", "events": [ { "event_id": "Reuters-AU-20260819-gold-0558", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "现货黄金报 4337.59 美元/盎司", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-19T05:58:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-19T06:17:49.769Z", "asset_keys": ["AU"], "direction_score": {"AU": -1}, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_report_date": "2026-08-19", "source_update_time_utc": "2026-08-19T06:17:49.769Z", "source_observation_utc": "2026-08-19T05:58:00Z", "spot_gold": { "price": 4337.59, "unit": "USD/oz", "change_description": "little changed" }, "us_gold_futures": { "price": 4391.20, "unit": "USD/oz", "change_pct": -0.7 }, "prior_channel_snapshot": { "spot_gold": 4344.82, "unit": "USD/oz", "delta": -7.23, "delta_pct": -0.1664 } }, "transmission_chain": "市场等待 FOMC 会议纪要且政策路径仍有分歧→黄金的利率预期压力暂时缓和但方向性买盘不足→现货黄金报 4337.59 美元/盎司。", "invalidation_conditions": "若 FOMC 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"[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-extends-gains-easing-rate-hike-fears-markets-await-fed-minutes-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-extends-gains-easing-rate-hike-fears-markets-await-fed-minutes-2026-08-18/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-extends-gains-easing-rate-hike-fears-markets-await-fed-minutes-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-extends-gains-easing-rate-hike-fears-markets-await-fed-minutes-2026-08-18/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260819-fedwatch-0617", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "9 月美联储加息概率为 36%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-19T06:17:49.769Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": -1, "AG": -1}, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "source_report_date": "2026-08-19", "source_update_time_utc": "2026-08-19T06:17:49.769Z", "pricing_source": "CME FedWatch Tool", 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"[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260819-oil-0415", "event_type": "supply_demand", "title": "布伦特升至 91.71 美元/桶", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-19T04:15:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-19T04:41:22.298Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": -1, "AG": -1}, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_report_date": "2026-08-19", "source_update_time_utc": "2026-08-19T04:41:22.298Z", "source_observation_utc": "2026-08-19T04:15:00Z", "brent": { "price": 91.71, "unit": "USD/barrel", "change": 0.69, "change_pct": 0.8 }, "us_west_texas_intermediate": { "price": 85.70, "unit": "USD/barrel", "change": 0.76, "change_pct": 0.9 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"[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260819-hormuz-traffic-0258", "event_type": "geopolitics", "title": "霍尔木兹周二通行降至 6 艘", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-19T03:39:48.338Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": -1, "AG": -1}, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_report_date": "2026-08-19", "source_update_time_utc": "2026-08-19T05:08:24.897Z", "fact_date": "2026-08-18", "reported_by_time_utc": "2026-08-19T02:58:00Z", "kpler_hormuz_commodity_vessels": 6, "unit": "vessels", "previous_day_vessels": 9, "ten_day_daily_average_vessels": 11, "inbound_traffic": { "empty_vlcc": 1, "other_tankers": 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