Louisville, Cleveland and Albuquerque clear the 60% screen; one permit delay, one licence deadline, one thin margin
Three mid-sized metros clear a 60% occupancy screen with full 2BR economics and a permit path: Louisville models +$1,419 a month and waits on a six-month conditional use permit, Cleveland clears at +$512 against a licence regime starting November 28, and Albuquerque's +$87 margin is too thin to sign.
Louisville, Cleveland and Albuquerque all clear this week's screen, and in each one the permit decides what happens next. Louisville models +$1,419 a month at 60% occupancy, then waits on a conditional use permit its own code makes mandatory for a lease. Cleveland models +$512 against a licensing regime that starts November 28. Albuquerque clears at +$87, thin enough that a ten percent rate cut erases it.
Regulation weather: October 4 – 11
Every dated change this week tightened.
Santa Barbara, California. The City Council unanimously approved its short-term rental ordinances for inland and coastal areas on October 6. The inland rules in Title 30 become operative on January 11, 2027, when the licensing system opens, and existing unpermitted rentals must be licensed by July 10, 2027. Each person or entity may hold one licence. The coastal changes go to the California Coastal Commission. 1 Noozhawk reports the inland ordinance bars rentals in single-family and two-family residential zones. 2
New Haven, Connecticut. Three alders proposed an ordinance on October 6 that would prohibit non-owner-occupied vacation rentals and license home-shares instead. It goes to committee first, and would take effect March 31, 2027 if signed. 3
Largo, Florida. City commissioners unanimously approved vacation-rental rules on October 6. Owners register annually, pass a city and fire inspection, and pay $600 at registration and at each renewal. The city counts 600 to 800 such properties and launches the programme January 1, 2027. 4
Hillsborough County, Florida. A county ordinance takes effect in January and requires owners to register, pay a fee and name someone who can respond to complaints. It covers about 3,000 properties and should collect about $600,000 in its first year. 5
Dunes City, Oregon. Measure 20-386 goes on the November ballot, and would stop permits for new rentals and require an on-site host at the existing 26. 6
The counter-current is parked in committee. Ohio's HB 109 and SB 104 would limit how cities regulate short-term rentals, cap registration fees at $20 and bar limits on how many units one owner may run. 7 Kentucky's SB 112 would forbid conditional use permits, density caps and residency requirements outright, and would let a tenant offer a leased property with the landlord's permission; it has sat in committee since January 21. 8
What cleared the screen
Every week this channel runs the same filter over mid-sized North American metros: population between 100,000 and 800,000, market nightly revenue at 60% occupancy above 1.35 times the local two-bedroom rent, a regulation light of green or yellow, and at least one operator publicly running three or more units profitably in the past year.
| City | Population | 2BR asking rent | Market ADR | Occupancy | Nightly revenue at 60% | Rent × 1.35 hurdle | Market score | Regulation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville, KY | 641,962 9 | $1,180 10 | $218 11 | 56% 11 | $3,924 | $1,593 | 89 | YELLOW |
| Cleveland, OH | 363,608 12 | $1,100 13 | $149 14 | 61% 14 | $2,682 | $1,485 | 94 | GREEN now, YELLOW Nov 28 |
| Albuquerque, NM | 556,588 15 | $1,428 16 | $142 17 | 64% 17 | $2,556 | $1,928 | 86 | GREEN |
Three markets passed the top line and were set aside.
Richmond, Virginia clears the spread and then closes the door on a lease. Richmond's ordinance makes the short-term rental operator the property owner, and in a residential district the unit has to sit on the operator's primary-residence lot. 18 Richmond also lands at break-even: $2,754 of nightly revenue at 60% occupancy against a $1,673 rent leaves about $19 a month after the full cost stack.
Charleston, South Carolina posts the widest spread on the page and still cannot carry a 2BR lease. The average listing there earns $86,600 a year at a $436 average daily rate, a figure set by the coastal house segment. 19 A two-bedroom apartment cannot reach that rate, so the market average describes a house this model does not buy. 20
Tucson, Arizona clears the top line at $2,952 against a $1,755 hurdle, and Arizona Revised Statutes § 9-500.39 bars cities from prohibiting short-term rentals. 212223 Tucson's published pages carry no city short-term rental permit of their own, which leaves a leased operator with no citable city section and no address-level approval to obtain.
The assumptions behind every figure below. One 2BR unit, listed 365 nights a year, modelled at 60% occupancy — 18 booked nights a month. AirDNA publishes a seasonality score for these markets and names no trough month, so each city reports its score. The nightly rate is AirDNA's market average daily rate across all bedroom counts, because the public market page reports one rate for the whole market. That average is the model's biggest assumption. Cleaning fees stay out of revenue and are matched against the cleaner's invoice instead. Rent is Zillow's average asking rent for a two-bedroom apartment. The unit is furnished for $6,000, amortised over 24 months. Insurance is a commercial host policy. The platform fee is Airbnb's host-only 15.5%. Lodging tax is treated as a pass-through collected from the guest, so check whether the platform collects it locally.
Louisville, Kentucky
Snapshot. Population 641,962. Two-bedroom asking rent $1,180. Market ADR $218, occupancy 56%. AirDNA Market Score 89, seasonality 88. Regulation light: yellow. 91011
Where to look. Downtown and NuLu, where the medical district and the convention floor sit within a short walk and Furnished Finder's listings sell that walk directly — one advertises "DT 8 mins." 24 Second, the Highlands and Clifton along Bardstown Road, near the University of Louisville; Furnished Finder lists a renovated two-bedroom there at $2,400. 24
The numbers on one 2BR, per month.
| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Gross nightly revenue, 18 nights × $218 | $3,924 |
| Airbnb host-only fee, 15.5% | −$608 |
| Net platform revenue | $3,316 |
| Base rent | −$1,180 |
| Utilities and internet | −$240 |
| Furnishing amortisation, $6,000 over 24 months | −$250 |
| Cleaning and restock, net of guest cleaning fee | −$45 |
| Host insurance | −$75 |
| Pricing software | −$25 |
| Annual STR registration, $250 | −$21 |
| Conditional use permit, $1,460 one-time over 24 months | −$61 |
| Net monthly cash flow | +$1,419 |
Regulation gate. Louisville regulates through Metro Council Ordinance 130, Series 2023, effective September 28, 2023, which amended both the Land Development Code and the Louisville Metro Code of Ordinances. 25 Each rental registers annually with the Office of Planning for $250 and separately with the Revenue Commission for a tax reporting number. 26 A leased unit is non-owner-occupied, so it also needs a conditional use permit: $200 for the pre-application, $1,260 for the formal application, a staff conference, a neighbourhood meeting and a public hearing before the Board of Zoning Adjustment. The city says the process typically runs six months, and the rental must sit at least 600 feet from another one that holds a permit. Read LMCO §§ 115.515 through 115.521 and the short-term rental section of the Land Development Code.
One clause decides whether a lease works here. The Land Development Code defines a short-term rental host to include a lessee under a written lease, so a renter can hold the registration. The city adds that its rules do not override a lease clause forbidding subletting, and that Metro will not enforce such a clause. Get the right written in.
Mid-term signal. Furnished Finder lists 737 furnished rentals in Louisville, 338 available now. 24
Risks. The six-month conditional use permit is the gate, and it is discretionary. Pull the LOJIC eligibility map for the candidate address before anything else. 27 Old Louisville and Limerick require a conditional use permit even for an owner-occupied unit, so a leased flat there doubles the problem. Nine suburban cities in Jefferson County, among them Jeffersontown, Prospect and Shively, have adopted no STR rules at all, which the city reads as rentals there being unpermitted. Fines run $125 to $1,000, and advertising an unregistered unit adds $125 a day. ADR fell 34.7% year over year 11, and Derby week concentrates a large share of annual revenue into April and May. 28 Seasonality is 88 out of 100.
First 90 days. Weeks 1–2: pull the eligibility map for two or three addresses and ask the Office of Planning in writing whether the parcel needs a conditional use permit. Weeks 3–6: put the subleasing right in the lease and confirm the landlord will sign the owner's consent. Weeks 7–13: file the pre-application, hold the neighbourhood meeting and pay the first $200 of the $1,460 in fees.
Is this safe to start in the next 30 days? WAIT. The model is the strongest of the three, and the city makes a leased operator wait roughly six months for a discretionary approval. Sign nothing until the address clears the map and the fee schedule is funded.
Cleveland, Ohio
Snapshot. Population 363,608. Two-bedroom asking rent $1,100. Market ADR $149, occupancy 61%. AirDNA Market Score 94, seasonality 80. Regulation light: green now, yellow from November 28. 121314
Where to look. Fairfax and University Circle, built around Cleveland Clinic's main campus and University Hospitals; Cleveland Clinic is Northeast Ohio's largest employer with nearly 53,000 people. 29 Furnished Finder's Cleveland listings market themselves on exactly that distance, with one advertising "2 minutes from Cleveland Clinic & 6 minutes from UH." 30 Second, Ohio City, Tremont and Detroit-Shoreway, downtown-adjacent neighbourhoods where Furnished Finder lists a three-bedroom at $3,900. 30
The numbers on one 2BR, per month.
| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Gross nightly revenue, 18 nights × $149 | $2,682 |
| Airbnb host-only fee, 15.5% | −$416 |
| Net platform revenue | $2,266 |
| Base rent | −$1,100 |
| Utilities and internet | −$240 |
| Furnishing amortisation, $6,000 over 24 months | −$250 |
| Cleaning and restock, net of guest cleaning fee | −$45 |
| Host insurance | −$75 |
| Pricing software | −$25 |
| Short-term rental licence, $150 a year | −$13 |
| Non-owner-occupied rental registration, $70 a year | −$6 |
| Net monthly cash flow | +$512 |
The table carries the two city fees it can price. It leaves out the lead-safe certificate Cleveland requires for rental units built before 1978, because the city sets that cost through a licensed assessor and it varies by building. Budget for it separately on any pre-1978 address.
Regulation gate. Cleveland City Council passed Ordinance 561-2026 on June 1, 2026, creating Chapter 686B of the city code. 31 It takes effect November 28, 2026. 32 Every rental then needs an annual licence at $150, a licence number on every advertisement, at least $500,000 in liability insurance, a local contact who can reach the property within an hour, and occupancy capped at two guests per bedroom plus two. 33 Section 686B.07 caps short-term rentals in any residential district at 10% of the residential units on the block or in a multi-unit building, whichever is greater, with a Board of Zoning Appeals variance available. 34 Read §§ 686B.03, 686B.06 and 686B.07.
Section 686B.03 answers the arbitrage question in the operator's favour. A tenant may hold a licence, provided the application shows a valid lease that allows subleasing; a lease that forbids subleasing is grounds for denial. Cleveland also runs a separate rental registration at $70 a unit for non-owner-occupied properties, and the licence year runs December 1 to November 30, with renewals filed between September 1 and November 1. 35
Mid-term signal. Furnished Finder lists 489 furnished rentals in Cleveland, 280 available now. 30
Risks. The rules change inside six weeks. Until November 27 the older zoning rule for limited lodging applies, and the 2016 ordinance requiring owner occupancy is unenforceable. 31 The 10% block cap is address-specific: a residential block already at the limit closes to new licences unless a variance is granted. Ohio HB 109 and SB 104 would preempt the density cap and cap registration fees at $20 if either passes. 7 ADR fell 9.2% year over year 14, and seasonality scores 80.
First 90 days. Weeks 1–2: confirm the zoning district and count the rentals on the block against the 10% cap. Weeks 3–6: write the subleasing right into the lease, since the city will ask for it. Weeks 7–10: furnish, then file the licence once the chapter takes effect on November 28. Weeks 11–13: list the unit.
Is this safe to start in the next 30 days? YES, conditional. The model clears with room, the licence is administrative and costs $150, and § 686B.03 opens the door to a tenant operator. Two conditions hold it up: a lease that expressly permits subletting, and an address whose block sits under the 10% cap.
Albuquerque, New Mexico
Snapshot. Population 556,588. Two-bedroom asking rent $1,428. Market ADR $142, occupancy 64%. AirDNA Market Score 86, seasonality 96. Regulation light: green. 151617
Where to look. Nob Hill and the University of New Mexico corridor, the city's dining strip and its academic medical centre in one walk. Furnished Finder carries a one-bedroom Nob Hill house with a private courtyard at $2,150 a month. 36 Second, Downtown, Old Town and Barelas, around the BioPark and the convention floor; Furnished Finder lists a furnished adobe home in Barelas at $2,900. 36 Sandia National Laboratories is the largest employer in the Albuquerque area at about 16,000 people, with the University of New Mexico and UNM Hospital behind it. 37
The numbers on one 2BR, per month.
| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Gross nightly revenue, 18 nights × $142 | $2,556 |
| Airbnb host-only fee, 15.5% | −$396 |
| Net platform revenue | $2,160 |
| Base rent | −$1,428 |
| Utilities and internet | −$240 |
| Furnishing amortisation, $6,000 over 24 months | −$250 |
| Cleaning and restock, net of guest cleaning fee | −$45 |
| Host insurance | −$75 |
| Pricing software | −$25 |
| Short-term rental permit, $120 first year | −$10 |
| Net monthly cash flow | +$87 |
Regulation gate. Albuquerque's short-term rental ordinance took effect on April 23, 2021. A permit is required before advertising or renting any unit let for 29 days or less, and each unit needs its own. 38 The permit costs $120 the first year and $90 to renew, and it requires a city business licence, a floor plan, proof of $250,000 in insurance, a posted Good Neighbor Agreement, and overnight occupancy capped at two adults per bedroom plus two. Complete applications are usually approved in five to seven business days. The city requires a monthly lodger's tax filing by the 25th even when Airbnb or Vrbo remits the tax.
Mid-term signal. Furnished Finder lists 1,385 furnished rentals in Albuquerque, with 634 available now — the deepest mid-term pool of the three cities. 36
Risks. The margin is the risk. A ten percent rate cut turns +$87 into −$129, and at 50% occupancy the unit loses $273 a month. New Mexico lawmakers debated a statewide property-tax classification for short-term rentals in December 2025 and have enacted no preemption since. 39 Seasonality scores 96, the steadiest of the three, so the exposure sits in the rate rather than the calendar.
First 90 days. Weeks 1–2: confirm the zoning allows the use and that the landlord will consent in writing, then open the MuniRevs account. Weeks 3–4: file the business licence and the STR permit together. Weeks 5–8: furnish and draw the floor plan. Weeks 9–13: list, and file the monthly lodger's tax report by the 25th.
Is this safe to start in the next 30 days? WAIT. The permit is fast, cheap and settled, and the money at 60% occupancy is $87 a month. A ten percent rate cut erases it. Sign only with a rent well under the $1,428 market average, or a unit that can hold above 65% occupancy on the year.
The downside case
Net monthly cash flow on one 2BR unit at three occupancy levels, built by this channel from the model above. It is a projection under one assumed cost stack, not an observed result. The line at $0 marks break-even.
| City | 50% — 15 nights | 60% — 18 nights | 70% — 21 nights | 60% with ADR 10% lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville, KY | +$866 | +$1,419 | +$1,972 | +$1,088 |
| Cleveland, OH | +$135 | +$512 | +$891 | +$286 |
| Albuquerque, NM | −$273 | +$87 | +$447 | −$129 |
Louisville survives a lower rate and still clears $1,000 a month. Cleveland holds its sign at 50% occupancy, at +$135 a month. Albuquerque is the one city here where a routine rate cut flips the model negative.
Before you sign anything
- Read the ordinance section rather than the city's summary page. Louisville: LMCO §§ 115.515–115.521 and the Land Development Code. Cleveland: §§ 686B.03, 686B.06 and 686B.07. Albuquerque: the 2021 ordinance behind the permit FAQ.
- Get the address-level answer in writing. Louisville and Cleveland both turn on a map — a conditional use permit eligibility, or a block count against a 10% cap.
- Put the subletting right in the lease, in the city's own words. Louisville and Cleveland both ask the applicant to prove it.
- Budget the one-time cost. Louisville's conditional use permit is $1,460 before the six-month clock starts.
- Price the rent against the low end of the observed rate range, since a thin margin fails on the rate.
One promise this channel keeps and has missed again this week: at least one disclosed operator running three or more units profitably in each city within the past twelve months. The searches this week looked at city news, management-company disclosures and each city's own published rental registry, and produced no disclosure that ties a named operator to a unit count, an explicit profit figure and a date inside the window. The screen's top-line and regulation checks stand on their own sources; this one remains open in all three cities.
References
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santabarbaraca.gov
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- 3Airbnb Ban Proposed For Non-Owner-Occupants
newhavenindependent.org
- 4Largo moves to rein in problem vacation rentals
stpetecatalyst.com
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- 6Dispute over short-term rentals in Dunes City heads to a November vote
lookouteugene-springfield.com
- 7House Bill 109, 136th General Assembly
legislature.ohio.gov
- 826RS SB 112
apps.legislature.ky.gov
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- 10Average Rental Price in Louisville, KY
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- 12QuickFacts: Cleveland city, Ohio
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- 13Average Rental Price in Cleveland, OH
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- 14
- 15QuickFacts: Albuquerque city, New Mexico
census.gov
- 16Average Rental Price in Albuquerque, NM
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- 20Average Rental Price in Charleston, SC
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- 22Average Rental Price in Tucson, AZ
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- 23Arizona Revised Statutes § 9-500.39
azleg.gov
- 24Furnished monthly rentals in Louisville, KY
furnishedfinder.com
- 25Metro Council Ordinance 130, Series 2023
louisvilleky.gov
- 26Short Term Rental Information | LouisvilleKY.gov
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- 27Interactive Map for STR Registrations
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- 29Northeast Ohio's largest employers
crainscleveland.com
- 30Furnished monthly rentals in Cleveland, OH
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- 32Chapter 686B — Short-Term Rentals
codelibrary.amlegal.com
- 33§ 686B.03 Short-Term Rental License Required; Application; Fee
codelibrary.amlegal.com
- 34§ 686B.07 Short-Term Rental Density Limitation; Variance
codelibrary.amlegal.com
- 35Rental Registration | City of Cleveland Ohio
clevelandohio.gov
- 36Furnished monthly rentals in Albuquerque, NM
furnishedfinder.com
- 37New Mexico's Largest Employers
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