截至2026年8月19日09时：10条豆粕ETF结构化事件

[ { "event_id": "usda-us-20260818-china-soybean-sale", "title": "USDA 披露对华销售 13.6 万吨大豆", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": null, "event_type": "usda_report", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-18", "sale_volume_metric_tons": 136000, "commodity": "soybeans", "destination": "China", "marketing_year": "2026/2027", "reporting_party": "private exporters", "comparison_vs_previous": "页面未披露与上一公告的比较" }, "transmission_chain": "USDA 披露的对华大豆销售增加美国出口需求预期；若后续装运兑现，美国可供出口量可能收紧，并通过进口成本和压榨原料预期支撑豆粕价格。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续装运取消、延迟或未形成实际出口", "美国大豆供应或全球供应增量抵消新增出口需求" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-102](https://www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-102)](https://fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-102](https://www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/export-sales-china-102))" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260818-national-crush-rate", "title": "全国油厂开机率升至 66.08%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T10:20:28Z", "event_type": "crush_margin", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-18", "national_dynamic_sample_oil_mill_operating_rate_pct": 66.08, "operating_rate_change_vs_previous_day_percentage_points": 4.63, "comparison_basis": "较前一日上升" }, "transmission_chain": "全国动态全样本油厂开机率较前一日上升 4.63 个百分点至 66.08%，压榨端短线供应增加；若豆粕提货增幅跟不上开机恢复，现货库存和基差将承受压力。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续开机率重新回落并低于本期水平", "豆粕提货持续增加并抵消压榨增量" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26081818/BD599E67C6090997_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081818/BD599E67C6090997_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26081818/BD599E67C6090997_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081818/BD599E67C6090997_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260818-national-soymeal-trade", "title": "全国豆粕成交量为 10.85 万吨且较前日减少", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T10:15:51Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-18", "national_soymeal_transaction_metric_tons": 108500, "transaction_change_vs_previous_day": "减少，页面未披露减少吨数", "east_china_transaction_metric_tons": 47500, "shandong_transaction_metric_tons": 24000, "northwest_transaction_metric_tons": 7000, "regional_transaction_comparison": "华东与山东为主要成交区域" }, "transmission_chain": "全国豆粕成交量较前一日减少至 10.85 万吨，华东 4.75 万吨、山东 2.4 万吨为主要成交区域；成交回落与全国开机率上升同时出现，短线需求承接弱于供应恢复。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "后续全国成交量恢复并连续高于本期水平", "提货和现货基差同步走强，显示成交回落只是单日波动" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26081818/089D801084717A9F_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081818/089D801084717A9F_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26081818/089D801084717A9F_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081818/089D801084717A9F_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260818-national-soymeal-pickup", "title": "全国豆粕提货量增至 20.348 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T10:15:09Z", "event_type": "supply_demand", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-18", "national_soymeal_pickup_metric_tons": 203480, "pickup_change_vs_previous_day_metric_tons": 2300, "regional_changes_metric_tons": { "河南": 1300, "广东": 1700, "华北": 500, "广西": -800 }, "comparison_basis": "较前一日增加 2300 吨" }, "transmission_chain": "全国豆粕提货量较前一日增加 2300 吨至 20.348 万吨，河南、广东和华北增加，广西减少 800 吨；提货回升为现货需求提供边际支撑，但增量小于全国开机率的恢复幅度。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "提货量回落并低于本期水平", "开机率持续上升且提货增量无法覆盖新增供应" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26081818/A442A4AA4A230D2A_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081818/A442A4AA4A230D2A_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26081818/A442A4AA4A230D2A_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081818/A442A4AA4A230D2A_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260818-east-crush", "title": "华东油厂开机率 82.67%成交 4.75 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T09:36:59Z", "event_type": "crush_margin", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-18", "region": "华东", "operating_rate_pct": 82.67, "crush_volume_metric_tons_per_day": 89200, "soymeal_transaction_metric_tons": 47500, "transaction_change_vs_previous_day_metric_tons": -14900, "comparison_basis": "成交量较上一交易日减少 1.49 万吨" }, "transmission_chain": "华东油厂开机率维持 82.67%，日开机量 8.92 万吨，而豆粕成交较上一交易日减少 1.49 万吨至 4.75 万吨；区域供应运行偏高、成交回落，短线对现货价格形成压制。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "华东开机率明显回落", "豆粕成交量恢复并带动区域基差持续走强" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26081817/609BFBF9242825AE_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081817/609BFBF9242825AE_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26081817/609BFBF9242825AE_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081817/609BFBF9242825AE_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260818-north-crush", "title": "华北油厂开机率为 86.36%成交 6000 吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T08:42:41Z", "event_type": "crush_margin", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-18", "region": "华北", "operating_rate_pct": 86.36, "soymeal_main_transaction_price_yuan_per_ton": 3100, "soymeal_transaction_metric_tons": 6000, "comparison_vs_previous_day": "页面未披露开机率和成交量的前一日数值" }, "transmission_chain": "华北油厂开机率为 86.36%，主流成交价 3100 元/吨、成交量 6000 吨；高开机率对应区域供应保持运行，若成交未继续放量，现货基差可能承受压力。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "华北开机率下降并伴随成交量连续增加", "主流成交价跌破 3100 元/吨或区域基差转弱" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26081816/CD4C4E394C3FBA37_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081816/CD4C4E394C3FBA37_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26081816/CD4C4E394C3FBA37_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081816/CD4C4E394C3FBA37_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260818-two-lakes-crush", "title": "两湖油厂开机率 76%成交 4000 吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T09:44:18Z", "event_type": "crush_margin", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-18", "region": "两湖", "operating_rate_pct": 76, "soymeal_main_transaction_price_yuan_per_ton": 3160, "soymeal_transaction_metric_tons": 4000, "forward_contract_period": "10-1 月", "comparison_vs_previous_day": "页面未披露开机率、价格和成交量的前一日数值" }, "transmission_chain": "两湖油厂开机率为 76%，主流成交价 3160 元/吨、成交量 4000 吨且全部为 10 月至次年 1 月远月合约；供应保持运行，成交偏向远月，区域近端价格信号暂时中性。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "两湖现货成交明显放量并带动价格上调", "开机率继续上升且现货成交持续清淡" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26081817/F8DECFEA4FDC13FB_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081817/F8DECFEA4FDC13FB_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26081817/F8DECFEA4FDC13FB_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081817/F8DECFEA4FDC13FB_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260818-guangdong-crush", "title": "广东油厂开机率 62.95%成交 4000 吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T09:27:57Z", "event_type": "crush_margin", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-18", "region": "广东", "operating_rate_pct": 62.95, "soymeal_transaction_metric_tons": 4000, "soymeal_spot_transaction_price_range_yuan_per_ton": [ 3110, 3120 ], "comparison_vs_previous_day": "页面未披露开机率、成交量和成交价的前一日数值" }, "transmission_chain": "广东油厂开机率为 62.95%，豆粕成交量 4000 吨、现货主流成交价 3110 至 3120 元/吨；供应和成交均有明确数字，但页面未给出日间变化，短线信号保持中性。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "广东现货成交价连续上调并伴随成交量放大", "开机率明显上升且成交量回落" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26081817/313E007D49C91EE0_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081817/313E007D49C91EE0_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26081817/313E007D49C91EE0_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081817/313E007D49C91EE0_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260818-guangxi-crush", "title": "广西开机率 32%现货成交价涨 60 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T09:41:25Z", "event_type": "crush_margin", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-18", "region": "广西及云南", "guangxi_oil_mill_count": 8, "guangxi_operating_rate_pct": 32, "guangxi_spot_transaction_metric_tons": 3000, "guangxi_spot_transaction_price_yuan_per_ton": 3110, "guangxi_spot_price_change_vs_previous_day_yuan_per_ton": 60, "guangxi_forward_transaction_metric_tons": 4000, "yunnan_kunming_spot_price_yuan_per_ton": 3230, "yunnan_spot_price_change_vs_previous_day_yuan_per_ton": 40, "comparison_basis": "广西和云南现货价格较前一日上涨" }, "transmission_chain": "广西 8 家油厂开机率仅 32%，广西现货成交价 3110 元/吨、较前一日上涨 60 元，云南昆明主流价 3230 元/吨、上涨 40 元；低开机率叠加区域现货提价，对豆粕 ETF 形成局部偏多信号。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "广西开机率恢复并超过本期水平且现货成交价回落", "广西和云南现货成交持续清淡，提价无法被实际成交确认" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26081817/9E03BC65A436524D_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081817/9E03BC65A436524D_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26081817/9E03BC65A436524D_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081817/9E03BC65A436524D_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260818-chuanyu-crush", "title": "川渝开机率 67%日压榨 1.53 万吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T10:13:06Z", "event_type": "crush_margin", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": -1, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-18", "region": "川渝", "crush_volume_metric_tons_per_day": 15300, "operating_rate_pct": 67, "soymeal_main_transaction_price_range_yuan_per_ton": [ 3200, 3300 ], "actual_transaction_comparison": "当日无实际成交记录", "comparison_vs_previous_day": "页面未披露开机率和主流成交价的前一日数值" }, "transmission_chain": "川渝油厂日压榨量 1.53 万吨、开机率 67%，主流成交价区间为 3200 至 3300 元/吨但当日无实际成交；供应保持运行而成交未落地，短线对现货需求的支撑有限。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "川渝实际成交恢复并带动现货价格连续上行", "开机率上升且成交继续缺失，导致现货报价回落" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26081818/289D88A87829FBA5_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081818/289D88A87829FBA5_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26081818/289D88A87829FBA5_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081818/289D88A87829FBA5_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" } ]