2026-08-12 09:00 纳指ETF事件流（8条）

[ { "event_id": "FederalReserve-NASDAQ-20260811-h15-long-yields", "title": "H.15 长端名义收益率上行", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-11T20:15:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T20:15:00Z", "event_type": "rate_path", "asset_keys": ["NASDAQ"], "direction_score": {"NASDAQ": -1}, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "release": "Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates", "release_date": "August 11, 2026", "release_time": "4:15 p.m. ET", "data_date": "August 10, 2026", "unit": "percent per annum", "nominal_2y": {"current": 4.25, "previous": 4.19, "change_bp": 6}, "nominal_5y": {"current": 4.41, "previous": 4.35, "change_bp": 6}, "nominal_10y": {"current": 4.72, "previous": 4.65, "change_bp": 7}, "nominal_30y": {"current": 5.25, "previous": 5.19, "change_bp": 6}, "comparison_date": "August 7, 2026" }, "transmission_chain": "10Y/30Y 名义国债收益率分别上行 7/6 个基点→长期实际贴现率与估值压力上升→高久期纳指资产承压。", "invalidation_conditions": "后续长端收益率回落至 8 月 7 日水平，或纳指盈利预期同步上修并抵消贴现率压力时，该偏空判断失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/)](https://federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/))"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "FederalReserve-NASDAQ-20260811-h15-real-yields", "title": "H.15 实际收益率同步上行", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-11T20:15:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T20:15:00Z", "event_type": "rate_path", "asset_keys": ["NASDAQ"], "direction_score": {"NASDAQ": -1}, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "release": "Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates", "release_date": "August 11, 2026", "release_time": "4:15 p.m. ET", "data_date": "August 10, 2026", "unit": "percent per annum", "inflation_indexed_5y": {"current": 2.16, "previous": 2.13, "change_bp": 3}, "inflation_indexed_10y": {"current": 2.43, "previous": 2.40, "change_bp": 3}, "inflation_indexed_30y": {"current": 3.00, "previous": 2.96, "change_bp": 4}, "comparison_date": "August 7, 2026" }, "transmission_chain": "5Y/10Y/30Y 通胀保值国债实际收益率分别上行 3/3/4 个基点→真实资金成本抬升→成长股远期现金流折现压力增加。", "invalidation_conditions": "后续实际收益率回落至 8 月 7 日水平，或纳指盈利增长上修足以覆盖实际贴现率升幅时，该偏空判断失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/)](https://federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/))"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "FederalReserve-NASDAQ-20260811-cp-rates", "title": "商业票据短端利率普遍回升", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z", "event_type": "rate_path", "asset_keys": ["NASDAQ"], "direction_score": {"NASDAQ": -1}, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "release": "Federal Reserve Commercial Paper Rates and Outstanding Summary", "posted_date": "August 11, 2026", "posted_time": "usually 1:00 p.m. ET; exact posting time not guaranteed", "data_date": "August 10, 2026", "unit": "percent per annum", "aa_nonfinancial_30d": {"current": 3.70, "previous": 3.69, "change_bp": 1}, "aa_nonfinancial_60d": {"current": 3.73, "previous": 3.69, "change_bp": 4}, "aa_financial_30d": {"current": 3.71, "previous": null, "previous_date": "August 7, 2026", "change_bp": null}, "aa_financial_90d": {"current": 3.90, "previous": 3.84, "change_bp": 6}, "comparison_date": "August 7, 2026 where available", "not_available": "n.a. indicates trade data was insufficient to support calculation" }, "transmission_chain": "商业票据 30 至 90 日利率上行且部分期限缺少充足成交数据→短期融资边际收紧与流动性不确定性增加→高估值科技股的风险偏好受压。", "invalidation_conditions": "后续商业票据利率回落且成交数据恢复，或短端融资利差收窄时，该偏空判断失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[federalreserve.gov/releases/cp/](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/cp/)](https://federalreserve.gov/releases/cp/](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/cp/))"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "FederalReserve-NASDAQ-20260811-cp-outstanding", "title": "商业票据未偿余额周环比上升", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z", "event_type": "macro_release", "asset_keys": ["NASDAQ"], "direction_score": {"NASDAQ": 1}, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "release": "Federal Reserve Commercial Paper Rates and Outstanding Summary", "posted_date": "August 11, 2026", "posted_time": "usually 1:00 p.m. ET; exact posting time not guaranteed", "unit": "billions of dollars", "seasonally_adjusted": true, "data_date": "week ending August 5, 2026", "total_outstanding": {"current": 1427.1, "previous": 1396.2, "change": 30.9, "change_unit": "billion dollars", "previous_period": "week ending July 29, 2026"}, "nonfinancial": {"current": 311.8, "previous": 298.3, "change": 13.5, "change_unit": "billion dollars"}, "financial": {"current": 625.7, "previous": 602.7, "change": 23.0, "change_unit": "billion dollars"}, "asset_backed": {"current": 489.7, "previous": 495.2, "change": -5.5, "change_unit": "billion dollars"} }, "transmission_chain": "季调商业票据未偿余额周环比增加 30.9 十亿美元→企业短期融资供给扩张、金融与非金融发行均增加→若资金用于 AI 基础设施，纳指科技资本开支预期获支撑。", "invalidation_conditions": "后续余额回落至 7 月 29 日周水平，或新增发行伴随融资成本与信用压力恶化时，该偏多判断失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[federalreserve.gov/releases/cp/](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/cp/)](https://federalreserve.gov/releases/cp/](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/cp/))"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "U.S.Treasury-NASDAQ-20260811-real-yield-curve", "title": "Treasury 实际收益率曲线日环比持平", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z", "event_type": "rate_path", "asset_keys": ["NASDAQ"], "direction_score": {"NASDAQ": 0}, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "U.S. Department of the Treasury", "series": "Daily Treasury Par Real Yield Curve Rates", "data_date": "August 11, 2026", "comparison_date": "August 10, 2026", "unit": "percent per annum", "real_yield_5y": {"current": 2.16, "previous": 2.16, "change_bp": 0}, "real_yield_7y": {"current": 2.28, "previous": 2.28, "change_bp": 0}, "real_yield_10y": {"current": 2.43, "previous": 2.43, "change_bp": 0}, "real_yield_20y": {"current": 2.79, "previous": 2.79, "change_bp": 0}, "real_yield_30y": {"current": 3.00, "previous": 3.00, "change_bp": 0}, "publication_time": "not exposed on the source page" }, "transmission_chain": "5Y 至 30Y 实际收益率均较 8 月 10 日不变→实际贴现率没有新增上行压力→该日更偏中性，纳指估值压力不因这条日更数据增加。", "invalidation_conditions": "后续实际收益率重新上行并突破 8 月 11 日各期限水平时，该中性判断失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026))"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "Lumentum-NASDAQ-20260811-fy27-guidance", "title": "Lumentum 发布 FY27 一季度指引", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z", "event_type": "earnings_guidance", "asset_keys": ["NASDAQ"], "direction_score": {"NASDAQ": 2}, "confidence": 93, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "SEC EDGAR Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1", "ticker": "LITE", "event_date": "August 11, 2026", "publication_time": "SEC filing date is August 11, 2026; exact acceptance time is not exposed in the retrieved filing", "quarter": "fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2026", "quarter_end": "June 27, 2026", "quarterly_revenue": {"current": 1006.3, "previous_quarter": 808.4, "year_ago_quarter": 480.7, "unit": "million dollars", "qoq_change_percent": 24.5, "yoy_change_percent": 109.3}, "gaap_net_loss": {"current": 7.2, "unit": "billion dollars", "diluted_loss_per_share": 84.65, "one_time_non_cash_debt_extinguishment_loss": 7.8, "one_time_loss_unit": "billion dollars"}, "non_gaap_net_income": {"current": 326.3, "diluted_earnings_per_share": 3.23, "unit": "million dollars"}, "q1_fy2027_revenue_guidance": {"low": 1225, "high": 1275, "unit": "million dollars", "midpoint": 1250}, "q1_fy2027_non_gaap_operating_margin_guidance": {"low": 39.5, "high": 40.5, "unit": "percent"}, "q1_fy2027_non_gaap_diluted_eps_guidance": {"low": 4.05, "high": 4.35, "unit": "dollars per share"} }, "transmission_chain": "Lumentum 给出 FY27 一季度营收 12.25 亿至 12.75 亿美元、非 GAAP 营业利润率 39.5%至 40.5%的指引→AI 光互联需求与盈利预期增强→纳指光模块及 AI 基础设施估值获支撑。", "invalidation_conditions": "后续季度营收或利润率指引下修、AI 光互联订单延迟，或一次性损失之外的经营指标恶化时，该偏多判断失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633978/000162828026055726/lite-20260811.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633978/000162828026055726/lite-20260811.htm)](https://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633978/000162828026055726/lite-20260811.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633978/000162828026055726/lite-20260811.htm))", "[https://www.[sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633978/000162828026055726/lite_ex991xq4fy26.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633978/000162828026055726/lite_ex991xq4fy26.htm)](https://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633978/000162828026055726/lite_ex991xq4fy26.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633978/000162828026055726/lite_ex991xq4fy26.htm))"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-NASDAQ-20260811-supermicro-guidance", "title": "Super Micro 给出 FY27 收入指引", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z", "event_type": "earnings_guidance", "asset_keys": ["NASDAQ"], "direction_score": {"NASDAQ": 2}, "confidence": 86, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "Reuters", "publication_date": "August 11, 2026", "publication_time": "not exposed in the fetched article body; only publication date verified", "ticker": "SMCI.O", "guidance_period": "fiscal 2027", "annual_revenue_guidance": {"current_low": 65, "current_high": 72, "analyst_average_estimate": 52.50, "unit": "billion dollars"}, "quarter_ended": "June 30, 2026", "gross_margin": {"current": 17.5, "preliminary_estimate_low": 15, "preliminary_estimate_high": 17, "initial_forecast_low": 8.2, "initial_forecast_high": 8.4, "unit": "percent"}, "quarterly_revenue": {"current": 11.12, "estimate": 11.55, "prior_guidance_low": 11, "prior_guidance_high": 12.5, "unit": "billion dollars"}, "customers_over_1b_revenue": {"current": 9, "previous": 4, "unit": "customers", "comparison": "fiscal 2025"} }, "transmission_chain": "Super Micro 给出 650 亿至 720 亿美元 FY27 收入指引并报告 17.5%毛利率→AI 服务器需求与利润修复预期增强→纳指硬件、芯片及 AI 资本开支链条获支撑。", "invalidation_conditions": "后续收入指引下修、订单兑现低于预期或毛利率重新跌回此前区间时，该偏多判断失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/business/super-micro-forecasts-upbeat-annual-revenue-2026-08-11/](https://www.reuters.com/business/super-micro-forecasts-upbeat-annual-revenue-2026-08-11/)](https://reuters.com/business/super-micro-forecasts-upbeat-annual-revenue-2026-08-11/](https://www.reuters.com/business/super-micro-forecasts-upbeat-annual-revenue-2026-08-11/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-NASDAQ-20260811-coreweave-guidance", "title": "CoreWeave 上调 2026 年资本开支指引", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z", "event_type": "earnings_guidance", "asset_keys": ["NASDAQ"], "direction_score": {"NASDAQ": 2}, "confidence": 86, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "publisher": "Reuters", "publication_date": "August 11, 2026", "publication_time": "not exposed in the fetched article body; only publication date verified", "ticker": "CRWV.O", "quarter": "second quarter 2026", "full_year_2026_capital_expenditure_guidance": {"current_low": 35, "current_high": 39, "unit": "billion dollars", "previous_low": 31, "previous_high": 35, "unit_previous": "billion dollars"}, "revenue_backlog": {"current": 104.2, "previous": 99.4, "unit": "billion dollars", "comparison": "first quarter 2026"}, "net_new_customer_commitments": {"value": 25, "unit": "billion dollars", "qualifier": "more than", "period": "so far in the current quarter"}, "quarterly_revenue": {"current": 2.58, "estimate": 2.56, "unit": "billion dollars"}, "quarterly_capital_expenditures": {"current": 9.4, "previous": 6.8, "unit": "billion dollars", "comparison": "prior three-month period"} }, "transmission_chain": "CoreWeave 将全年资本开支指引从 310 亿至 350 亿美元上调至 350 亿至 390 亿美元且订单积压升至 104.2 亿美元→AI 算力采购与云基础设施需求预期增强→纳指 AI 服务器、芯片与云计算估值获支撑。", "invalidation_conditions": "后续订单积压下降、客户承诺取消或资本开支上升未转化为收入与利润增长时，该偏多判断失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/technology/coreweave-edges-past-quarterly-revenue-estimates-2026-08-11/](https://www.reuters.com/technology/coreweave-edges-past-quarterly-revenue-estimates-2026-08-11/)](https://reuters.com/technology/coreweave-edges-past-quarterly-revenue-estimates-2026-08-11/](https://www.reuters.com/technology/coreweave-edges-past-quarterly-revenue-estimates-2026-08-11/))"], "source_tier": "B" } ]