Weekly settlements: Oil gains on Hormuz risk, then meets an inventory wall
For Aug. 7–13, oil gained on renewed Hormuz risk but reversed on a large U.S. crude build, while USDA’s big grain crops, gold’s resilient rally, and Chilean copper supply risks shaped the week.
For the week through Thursday, August 13, 2026, oil recovered from the prior Friday’s level but ended the week with a sharp reversal. The late move lower came as a large U.S. crude build and weaker demand forecasts outweighed renewed Middle East supply-risk headlines. Gold also fell on Thursday after a strong weekly advance, while corn and soybeans held gains despite a bearish harvest outlook. Copper remained close to its record, even as Chilean weather cut a major producer’s guidance.
Data cutoff: 5:00 p.m. ET on August 13, 2026. Percent changes compare the same contract from the Aug. 7 close to the Aug. 13 settlement. Where a verified same-contract weekly range, volume, or open-interest comparison was unavailable, it is marked explicitly rather than inferred.
Settlement snapshot
| Market | Contract | Aug. 13 settlement | Aug. 7 reference | Week-over-week move | Aug. 13 session range | Volume / open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | COMEX Aug. 2026 | $4,363.60/oz 1 | $4,340.70 2 | +0.53% | Data temporarily unavailable | Data temporarily unavailable |
| WTI | NYMEX Sep. 2026 | $81.25/bbl 3 | $78.18/bbl 4 | +3.93% | $80.09–$83.30 5 | 216.81K / 149,626 5 |
| Brent | ICE Oct. 2026 | $87.07/bbl 3 | $83.55/bbl 4 | +4.21% | Data temporarily unavailable | Data temporarily unavailable |
| Corn | CBOT Dec. 2026 | 472.00¢/bu 6 | 462.00¢/bu 7 | +2.16% | $4.705–$4.810/bu 8 | 262.17K / 851,559 8 |
| Soybeans | CBOT Nov. 2026 | 1,182.25¢/bu 6 | 1,176.25¢/bu 7 | +0.51% | $11.7875–$11.8800/bu 9 | 100.98K / 492,733 9 |
| Copper | COMEX front month | $6.5925/lb 10 | Same-contract Aug. 7 settlement: data temporarily unavailable | Weekly percentage: data temporarily unavailable | Data temporarily unavailable | Data temporarily unavailable |
The corn, soybean, and oil percentages are calculated from the two displayed settlements. Gold’s calculation uses $4,363.60 and $4,340.70. Copper is left without a weekly percentage because the Aug. 7 same-contract settlement could not be verified; the latest verified item reports that copper was off 1.65% from its Aug. 5 record close of $6.703. 10
Oil: a weekly gain capped by a physical-balance warning
The week’s headline was still positive for crude: WTI rose from $78.18 to $81.25, and Brent rose from $83.55 to $87.07. The path mattered more than the endpoint. Oil rallied for most of the week, then fell more than 2% on Thursday as traders focused on demand forecasts and inventories. Reuters reported that Houthi claims of a drone attack on a Saudi Aramco refinery briefly limited the selloff, but the market finished lower. 3
The EIA’s report for the week ended August 7 supplied the hard bearish counterweight. U.S. commercial crude stocks rose 17.4 million barrels to 424.4 million, while distillate stocks were essentially unchanged at 107.1 million barrels. Domestic crude production averaged 13.805 million barrels per day, and distillate products supplied fell to 3.458 million barrels per day. 11
That build did not erase the geopolitical risk premium. Reuters reported that the IEA expects global oil supply to fall by 4.3 million barrels per day in 2026, with a July–September deficit of 1.8 million barrels per day if the Middle East disruption persists. The same report said OPEC lowered its 2026 demand-growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day, while the IEA expects demand to contract by 1.6 million barrels per day. 12
The market is therefore carrying two opposing signals: a near-term U.S. inventory shock and a still-large geopolitical supply risk. The next useful confirmation is whether the crude build repeats, or whether disrupted flows begin pulling inventories lower again.
Grains: record-sized crops, tighter balance sheets
Corn and soybeans finished higher over the measured window, but the August USDA reports put a ceiling on the rally. The August Crop Production report forecasts 16.013 billion bushels of U.S. corn production from a 180.7-bushel-per-acre yield and 88.592 million harvested acres. Soybean production is forecast at 4.519 billion bushels, based on a 52.7-bushel yield and 85.781 million harvested acres. 13
The WASDE balance sheet makes the tension clearer. USDA describes the corn crop as the second largest U.S. harvest on record, yet raises 2026/27 exports to 3.3 billion bushels and cuts ending stocks to 1.7 billion bushels as use rises to 16.3 billion. For soybeans, USDA raises the crush forecast to 2.78 billion bushels and ending stocks to 320 million bushels, while leaving exports unchanged. 14
Export demand was mixed rather than absent. USDA reported 125,000 metric tons of soybeans sold to China for delivery in marketing year 2026/27 on August 13. It also reported 244,000 metric tons sold to China on August 12 and 105,000 metric tons of corn sold to unknown destinations on August 10. 1516
Weather remains the unresolved variable. USDA’s yield forecasts assume a crop that escaped a broad production shock, but the crop is still in the field. The price response this week says traders are weighing a large supply estimate against firm use and fresh Chinese soybean buying, rather than pricing a confirmed yield collapse.
Gold: gains survived a violent final session
August COMEX gold settled at $4,363.60 per ounce on Thursday, down $45.30, or 1.03%, from the prior session. It was still $22.90, or 0.53%, above the Aug. 7 settlement of $4,340.70. 12
The week’s macro backdrop was mixed. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that July CPI rose 0.1% month over month and 3.4% year over year; core CPI rose 0.2% month over month and 2.5% year over year. Energy prices fell 1.5% month over month but were up 14.7% from a year earlier. 17
The July PPI report released Thursday was softer at the headline level: final demand was unchanged month over month, with services up 0.2% and goods down 0.7%. Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.4%. 18
Gold’s weekly gain therefore carried a familiar tension. Safe-haven demand and a softer producer-price headline supported bullion, while the oil-inflation channel still threatens to keep real rates restrictive. The Thursday selloff reduced the week’s momentum, but it did not reverse the move from Aug. 7.
Copper: near-record price, weather-hit supply
COMEX copper settled at $6.5925 per pound, down 0.45 cent, or 0.07%, on Thursday. The contract had reached a record close of $6.703 on Aug. 5 and was down 1.65% from that level by Thursday. The Aug. 7 same-contract settlement was not verified, so the weekly change remains open. 10
Supply offered a real reason for the premium. Antofagasta cut its 2026 copper-production guidance to 625,000–655,000 tonnes from 650,000–700,000 tonnes, roughly a 5% reduction at the midpoint, after heavy rain and snowfall forced its Los Pelambres mine in Chile to halt operations. The company said the weather damaged some pipeline platforms and water-management systems. 19
That supply shock does not settle the demand question. A copper price near its record can coexist with uncertain industrial demand when mine disruptions and tight availability set the marginal price. The next check is whether the production interruption persists and whether physical premiums confirm the futures signal.
Cross-market read
Three signals shaped the week:
- Oil gained on the week but ended on inventory evidence. The geopolitical premium remains large, yet the EIA build and weaker demand forecasts made Thursday’s reversal credible.
- Grains are balancing abundance against use. USDA’s corn and soybean production forecasts are large, but corn exports, soybean crush, and fresh China buying keep the balance sheets from looking loose.
- Gold and copper held different kinds of support. Gold retained a macro and safe-haven bid despite the final-session selloff; copper’s support was tied more directly to supply disruption and scarcity.
The practical question into next week is confirmation: do oil inventories begin to draw, do grain sales broaden beyond isolated purchases, and does copper supply tightness show up outside the futures curve?
References
- 1COMEX gold settles 1.03% lower at $4,363.60
morningstar.com
- 2COMEX gold ends the week 7.20% higher at $4,340.70
morningstar.com
- 3
- 4Brent climbs $1 on uncertainty over end to Iran war
globalbankingandfinance.com
- 5Crude Oil Sep. 2026 overview
marketwatch.com
- 6Chicago Board of Trade futures table, Aug. 13, 2026
bhpioneer.com
- 7Chicago Board of Trade futures table, Aug. 7, 2026
bhpioneer.com
- 8Corn Dec. 2026 overview
marketwatch.com
- 9Soybeans Nov. 2026 overview
marketwatch.com
- 10COMEX copper settles 0.07% lower at $6.5925
morningstar.com
- 11
- 12
- 13Crop Production, August 2026
release.nass.usda.gov
- 14WASDE-674, August 2026
usda.gov
- 15Export Sales to China, Aug. 13, 2026
fas.usda.gov
- 16Weekly Export Sales, Aug. 13, 2026
fas.usda.gov
- 17
- 18
- 19Antofagasta cuts copper outlook after heavy rain in Chile
northernminer.com
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