2026-08-18 11:30｜霍尔木兹周一通行升至6艘

{ "schema_version": 1, "as_of": "2026-08-18 11:30:00+08:00", "window_start_utc": "2026-08-18T02:30:00Z", "window_end_utc": "2026-08-18T03:30:00Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "events": [ { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260818-hormuz-crossings-six", "event_type": "geopolitics", "title": "霍尔木兹周一商品船通行升至 6 艘", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T03:03:01.939Z", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "status": "new", "confidence": 92, "direction_score": {"AU": 1, "AG": 1}, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_publication_time_utc": "2026-08-18T03:03:01.939Z", "source_event_date": "2026-08-17", "source_event_time_note": "Reuters 原文仅说明数据对应周一，未给出船舶逐一通行的精确时刻，因此 event_time_quality 为 day_only。", "data_source": "Kpler 船舶追踪数据", "monday_commodity_ship_transits": "6 艘", "monday_exiting_the_gulf": "3 艘", "monday_entering_the_gulf": "3 艘", "ten_day_average": "11 艘", "saturday_commodity_ship_transits": "3 艘", "sunday_commodity_ship_transits": "2 艘", "very_large_crude_carriers_and_lng_tankers": "没有超大型原油运输船或液化天然气船通过", "tracking_limit": "部分船只可能关闭应答器，未计入统计", "additional_vessel_detail": "VLGC Xavia 空载经伊朗航线进入海峡；一艘中程燃料油船和一艘中程油轮进入海湾；一艘中型液化石油气船、一艘 Panamax 散货船和一艘 Panamax 级燃料油船驶出海湾" }, "transmission_chain": "霍尔木兹周一仅 6 艘商品船通行且无超大型原油运输船或液化天然气船通过→海运供给与中东冲突不确定性上升→AU 避险需求和 AG 地缘风险溢价获得短线支撑", "invalidation_conditions": "后续 Kpler 或 Reuters 数据显示通行量恢复至 10 日均值附近、超大型原油运输船或液化天然气船恢复通行，或美伊达成并执行稳定停火时，本事件的传导失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/middle-east/hormuz-crossings-rise-slightly-weekend-remain-single-digits-data-shows-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hormuz-crossings-rise-slightly-weekend-remain-single-digits-data-shows-2026-08-18/)](https://reuters.com/world/middle-east/hormuz-crossings-rise-slightly-weekend-remain-single-digits-data-shows-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hormuz-crossings-rise-slightly-weekend-remain-single-digits-data-shows-2026-08-18/))" ], "source_tier": "B" } ], "coverage_gaps": [ { "scope": "GLD/SLV 每日持仓变动", "status": "unverified", "reason": "本轮改走 Google 分别定向检索 SPDR Gold Shares、iShares SLV 和 BlackRock 发行人页面，未获得同时含窗口内持仓数字与发布时间证据的详情页，因此未填持仓事件。" }, { "scope": "COMEX 金银库存分级变动", "status": "unverified", "reason": "本轮改走 Google 定向检索 CME 官方 Gold/Silver 库存与 Daily Bulletin 入口，仅返回 CME 价格限制页，未获得窗口内库存分级数字，因此未以产品概览或行情页替代。" }, { "scope": "SHFE 仓单与 SGE 出入库", "status": "unverified", "reason": "本轮改走 Google 分别定向检索 SHFE 与 SGE 官方站点的 2026 年 8 月 18 日仓单、出入库关键词，未获得窗口内可访问且含 AU/AG 数字的详情页，因此未以搜索摘要或入口页替代。" }, { "scope": "美国财政部实际收益率日值", "status": "unverified", "reason": "本轮改走 Google 定向检索美国财政部 2026 年 8 月 18 日实际收益率曲线，仅返回名义国债收益率曲线入口，未获得窗口内实际收益率新行，因此未以 Reuters 名义收益率或搜索摘要替代。" } ] }