2026-08-18 22:30｜金银回落，霍尔木兹口径相反

{ "window_start_utc": "2026-08-18T13:30:00Z", "window_end_utc": "2026-08-18T14:30:00Z", "events": [ { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260818-gold-silver-price", "title": "现货金报 4393.11 美元，现货银报 64.82 美元", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-18T13:51:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T14:13:40.359Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": { "AU": -1, "AG": -2 }, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_observation_time_utc": "2026-08-18T13:51:00Z", "spot_gold": { "value": 4393.11, "unit": "USD/oz", "change_from_prior_close": -0.5, "change_unit": "%" }, "us_gold_futures_december": { "value": 4448.0, "unit": "USD/oz", "change_from_prior_close": -0.6, "change_unit": "%" }, "spot_silver": { "value": 64.82, "unit": "USD/oz", "change_from_prior_close": -1.5, "change_unit": "%" }, "previous_window_snapshot": { "snapshot_time_utc": "2026-08-18T12:01:00Z", "spot_gold": { "value": 4392.86, "unit": "USD/oz", "delta_from_current": 0.25, 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"event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T13:49:00.389Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": { "AU": 0, "AG": 0 }, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_date": "2026-08-18", "trump_statement": { "no_talks_or_conversations": "none taking place or scheduled", "naval_blockade": "remains in full force and effect", "hormuz_status": "open and operating", "water_mines": "all removed or detonated" }, "iran_statement": { "speaker": "Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf", "hormuz_status": "would remain shut", "conditions_for_change": [ "United States lifts blockade of Iranian ports", "United States lifts oil sanctions", "United States releases Tehran's frozen assets", "United States ends threats and military operations on all fronts" ] }, "source_original_published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T13:43:02.131Z", "source_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-18T13:49:00.389Z" }, "transmission_chain": "美伊双方对霍尔木兹是否开放的官方表述冲突→航运可用性与能源供给风险的可确认状态分裂→AU 与 AG 方向不确定，风险溢价波动上升。", "invalidation_conditions": "后续由双方共同确认且被实际通行数据验证的开放或关闭状态，或正式协议改变上述条件时，本条冲突状态失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-no-talks-are-taking-place-with-iran-none-are-scheduled-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-no-talks-are-taking-place-with-iran-none-are-scheduled-2026-08-18/)](https://reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-no-talks-are-taking-place-with-iran-none-are-scheduled-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-no-talks-are-taking-place-with-iran-none-are-scheduled-2026-08-18/))", "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/middle-east/hormuz-strait-remain-shut-until-us-meets-interim-deal-conditions-iran-says-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hormuz-strait-remain-shut-until-us-meets-interim-deal-conditions-iran-says-2026-08-18/)](https://reuters.com/world/middle-east/hormuz-strait-remain-shut-until-us-meets-interim-deal-conditions-iran-says-2026-08-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hormuz-strait-remain-shut-until-us-meets-interim-deal-conditions-iran-says-2026-08-18/))" ], "source_tier": "B" } ], "coverage_gaps": [ { "coverage": "GLD/SLV 每日持仓变动", "status": "unverified", "attempted_route": "本轮检查 Reuters 商品页、iShares SLV 官方产品页和 SPDR GLD 官方入口；iShares 页面最新数据仍为 2026-08-17，SPDR 入口返回安全校验，Reuters 商品页未给出持仓变动数字。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/markets/commodities/](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/)](https://reuters.com/markets/commodities/](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/))", "[https://www.[ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund)](https://ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund))", "[https://www.[spdrgoldshares.com/usa/](https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/usa/)](https://spdrgoldshares.com/usa/](https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/usa/))" ] }, { "coverage": "COMEX 金银库存分级变动", "status": "unverified", "attempted_route": "本轮改查 CME Group daily-bulletin.html 官方入口，但该地址返回 404 页面，未取得窗口内库存分级数字。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/daily-bulletin.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/daily-bulletin.html)](https://cmegroup.com/daily-bulletin.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/daily-bulletin.html))" ] }, { "coverage": "SGE 出入库、库存或仓单数据", "status": "unverified", "attempted_route": "本轮改查上金所延时行情官方入口；页面仅返回数据导航与截至 2026-08-17 的历史行情链接，未返回 2026-08-18 窗口内出入库、库存或仓单数字。", "source_urls": [ 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"[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026))" ] } ] }