Geopolitical Briefing: Iran Strikes, Patriot License, Taiwan Pressure

1. U.S.-Iran strikes put Hormuz back at the center

• U.S. Central Command said it began fresh strikes on Iran to keep the Strait of Hormuz open after President Donald Trump said the interim accord with Iran was "over." 1
• Iran said it had struck U.S. military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait; the new exchange followed attacks on three commercial ships in or near the strait. 1
• Reuters reported Brent last trading at $79.28 a barrel after settling up more than 5% at $78.02, with U.S. crude at $74.76 after a $73.52 settlement. 2

2. Gaza's transition remains blocked by security questions

• An Israeli strike in Gaza killed a Palestinian aid official who helped organize World Cup public screenings, according to local health officials cited by AP. 3
• Hamas has said it will dissolve its Gaza government and hand civil administration to the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, a body tied to the U.S.-brokered peace plan. 4
• DW reported that the committee's members remain outside Gaza, while disarmament, Israeli withdrawal, funding, personnel and security-force questions are still unresolved. 4

3. Kyiv's missile-defense gap becomes a NATO production issue

• Russia fired 169 long-range drones and seven missiles at Ukraine overnight; Ukraine intercepted or jammed 139 drones but did not down any of the five ballistic missiles, according to air-force data cited by AAP. 5
• NATO closed its Ankara summit with a pledge of 70 billion euros, about $80 billion, in military equipment, assistance and training for Ukraine in 2026. 6
• Trump said the U.S. would give Ukraine a license to make Patriot missiles, though Defense News reported that details such as PAC-2 versus PAC-3 interceptors still need to be worked out with contractors. 7

4. Russia bans diesel exports after Ukrainian energy strikes

• Russia introduced a diesel export ban through July 31 to support domestic supply after systematic Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries triggered shortages and price spikes. 8
• Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the domestic fuel situation remained complex and that Russia would start importing fuel in July. 8
• Reuters reported European diesel margins rose to a record $60.17 per barrel after the ban, while Russia's seaborne diesel and gasoil exports had already fallen 39% month on month in June. 8

5. East Asia's gray-zone pressure spreads across maritime chokepoints

• Taiwan's Ocean Affairs Council head Kuan Bi-ling warned that China's pressure tactics could create a new status quo in the Taiwan Strait before the international community recognizes the shift. 9
• Kuan said the pressure also reaches Japan and the Philippines, and could eventually affect shipping routes, insurance risk and frontline personnel. 9
• Reuters separately reported that China and Japan traded conflicting accounts of a coast-guard confrontation near the disputed Senkaku Islands involving a Japanese fishing vessel. 10