2026-08-11 14:30｜金银回落，霍尔木兹通行量降至6艘

{ "schema_version": 1, "as_of": "2026-08-11 14:30:00+08:00", "window_start_utc": "2026-08-11T01:30:00Z", "window_end_utc": "2026-08-11T06:30:00Z", "asset_keys": [ "AU", "AG" ], "events": [ { "event_id": "reuters-AU-20260811-gold-0548gmt", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "路透报现货金跌 0.3%至 4374.82 美元", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:48:37.555Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-11T05:48:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "asset_keys": [ "AU" ], "status": "new", "confidence": 98, "direction_score": { "AU": -1 }, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_page_published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:48:37.555Z", "source_page_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-11T06:00:13.948Z", "snapshot_time_utc": "2026-08-11T05:48:00Z", "spot_gold": { "price_usd_per_ounce": 4374.82, "change_percent": -0.3 }, "session_high_gold": { "price_usd_per_ounce": 4434.84, "comparison": "highest level since June 5" }, "us_gold_futures": { "price_usd_per_ounce": 4435.00, "change_percent": 0.4 }, "source_context": "Reuters reported that spot gold was down 0.3% to 4,374.82 US dollars per ounce by 0548 GMT after reaching 4,434.84 US dollars, while US gold futures rose 0.4% to 4,435.00 US dollars." }, "transmission_chain": "现货金自盘中高点回落且现货跌 0.3%→短线买盘强度减弱、利率与美元预期重新影响估值→AU 盘中支撑减弱", "invalidation_conditions": "后续同口径现货金重新站回 4434.84 美元并伴随资金流改善时，本事件的短线偏弱方向作废", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-third-straight-session-inflation-prints-focus-2026-08-11/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-third-straight-session-inflation-prints-focus-2026-08-11/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-third-straight-session-inflation-prints-focus-2026-08-11/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-third-straight-session-inflation-prints-focus-2026-08-11/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "reuters-AG-20260811-silver-0548gmt", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "路透报现货银跌 1.7%至 64.64 美元", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:48:37.555Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-11T05:48:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "asset_keys": [ "AG" ], "status": "new", "confidence": 98, "direction_score": { "AG": -1 }, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_page_published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:48:37.555Z", "source_page_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-11T06:00:13.948Z", "snapshot_time_utc": "2026-08-11T05:48:00Z", "spot_silver": { "price_usd_per_ounce": 64.64, "change_percent": -1.7 }, "source_context": "Reuters reported that spot silver fell 1.7% to 64.64 US dollars per ounce." }, "transmission_chain": "现货银下跌 1.7%→贵金属短线买盘分化且工业属性资产承压→AG 短线价格弱于 AU", "invalidation_conditions": "后续同口径现货银收复 64.64 美元且白银相对黄金重新走强时，本事件的短线偏弱方向作废", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-third-straight-session-inflation-prints-focus-2026-08-11/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-third-straight-session-inflation-prints-focus-2026-08-11/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-third-straight-session-inflation-prints-focus-2026-08-11/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-third-straight-session-inflation-prints-focus-2026-08-11/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "reuters-AUAG-20260811-global-oil-0141z", "event_type": "geopolitics", "title": "路透报布伦特升至 88.09 美元", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T01:41:12.037Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-11T01:41:12.037Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "asset_keys": [ "AU", "AG" ], "status": "new", "confidence": 95, "direction_score": { "AU": 1, "AG": 0 }, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_page_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-11T05:17:12.503Z", "brent_crude_usd_per_barrel": 88.09, "wti_crude_usd_per_barrel": 82.52, "relative_level": "both highest levels since July 31", "spot_gold": { "price_usd_per_ounce": 4402.52, "change_percent": 0.33 }, "source_context": "Reuters reported that negotiations over a US-Iran peace deal and reopening the Strait of Hormuz had hit an impasse; Brent rose to 88.09 US dollars per barrel and US crude to 82.52 US dollars, while spot gold was up 0.33% at 4,402.52 US dollars per ounce." }, "transmission_chain": "霍尔木兹重开谈判陷入僵局且油价处于 7 月 31 日以来高位→能源供给与通胀风险上升、避险需求增强→AU 获得支撑，AG 的工业需求效应部分抵消", "invalidation_conditions": "后续美国与伊朗达成并执行重开霍尔木兹的安排，且布伦特与 WTI 跌破本次更新水平时，本事件的方向判断作废", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-11/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-11/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-11/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-11/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "reuters-AUAG-20260811-oil-0405gmt", "event_type": "geopolitics", "title": "路透更新布伦特报 87.62 美元", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:38:17.929Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-11T04:05:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "asset_keys": [ "AU", "AG" ], "status": "updated", "confidence": 96, "direction_score": { "AU": 1, "AG": 0 }, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_page_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-11T04:23:09.192Z", "snapshot_time_utc": "2026-08-11T04:05:00Z", "brent_crude": { "price_usd_per_barrel": 87.62, "change_percent": -0.11 }, "wti_crude": { "price_usd_per_barrel": 82.08, "change_percent": -0.06 }, "source_context": "Reuters reported that Brent crude futures fell 0.10 US dollars, or 0.11%, to 87.62 US dollars a barrel by 0405 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.05 US dollars, or 0.06%, to 82.08 US dollars a barrel." }, "transmission_chain": "油价在霍尔木兹重开预期转弱下仍处一周高位→能源供给风险未解除、通胀变量继续存在→AU 避险与通胀溢价获得支撑，AG 方向中性", "invalidation_conditions": "后续霍尔木兹航运恢复并推动布伦特与 WTI 持续跌破本次快照水平时，本事件的方向判断作废", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steadies-near-one-week-highs-us-iran-peace-deal-hopes-dim-2026-08-11/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steadies-near-one-week-highs-us-iran-peace-deal-hopes-dim-2026-08-11/)](https://reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steadies-near-one-week-highs-us-iran-peace-deal-hopes-dim-2026-08-11/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steadies-near-one-week-highs-us-iran-peace-deal-hopes-dim-2026-08-11/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "reuters-AU-20260811-hormuz-shipping-0420gmt", "event_type": "geopolitics", "title": "霍尔木兹通行量降至 6 艘", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T04:44:51.785Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-11T04:20:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "asset_keys": [ "AU" ], "status": "new", "confidence": 96, "direction_score": { "AU": 1 }, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_page_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-11T05:00:13.647Z", "measurement_time_utc": "2026-08-11T04:20:00Z", "hormuz_vessel_transits": 6, "ten_day_average_vessel_transits": 11, "entered_vessels": 4, "exited_vessels": 2, "entered_vessel_detail": "4 commodity vessels, including 2 empty oil product tankers", "exited_vessel_detail": "1 small tanker carrying liquefied petroleum gas and 1 vessel carrying residual fuels", "prewar_typical_vessel_transits": "about 130 to 140 vessels", "source_context": "Reuters reported that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 6 vessels on Monday versus a 10-day average of about 11; Kpler data showed 4 commodity vessels entered and 2 vessels exited as of 0420 GMT." }, "transmission_chain": "霍尔木兹通行量降至 6 艘且低于 10 日均值 11 艘→原油与成品油运输受限、区域供应风险上升→AU 避险与通胀溢价获得支撑", "invalidation_conditions": "后续 Kpler 周度数据确认通行量恢复至 10 日均值附近并持续，或能源流量恢复至冲突前水平时，本事件的方向判断作废", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/gulf-shipping-traffic-via-strait-hormuz-falls-six-vessels-2026-08-11/](https://www.reuters.com/world/gulf-shipping-traffic-via-strait-hormuz-falls-six-vessels-2026-08-11/)](https://reuters.com/world/gulf-shipping-traffic-via-strait-hormuz-falls-six-vessels-2026-08-11/](https://www.reuters.com/world/gulf-shipping-traffic-via-strait-hormuz-falls-six-vessels-2026-08-11/))" ], "source_tier": "B" } ], "coverage_gaps": [ { "scope": "GLD/SLV 每日持仓变动", "status": "unverified", "reason": "本轮改走世界黄金协会当前 holdings and flows 页面及其下载项，并新增对 Reuters、彭博和财联社的定向检索；WGC 页面只说明周度、月度更新并提供 Gold ETF Flows: July 2026 下载项，未提供窗口内可核验的 GLD/SLV 逐日持仓数字，新增检索也未返回可打开的窗口内持仓详情。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows](https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows)](https://gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows](https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows))" ] }, { "scope": "COMEX 金银库存分级与 SHFE AU/AG 仓单", "status": "unverified", "reason": "本轮新增改查上期所仓单日报和库存周报直达入口，并对 Reuters、CFTC 做定向检索；上期所仓单日报入口及库存周报入口分别返回 WAF 人机识别页和无数据筛选壳，CFTC 页面仅为截至 2026-08-04 的 futures-only 持仓数据且明确不含库存分级，未以入口壳、搜索摘要或交割通知替代事实。", "source_urls": [ "https://www.shfe.com.cn/reports/tradedata/dailyandweeklydata/?query_params=dailystock", "https://www.shfe.com.cn/reports/tradedata/dailyandweeklydata/?query_params=weeklystock", "[https://www.[cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm](https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm)](https://cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm](https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm))" ] } ] }