2026-09-01 14:30｜金银回落，9月加息概率升至66%

{ "window_start_utc": "2026-09-01T03:30:00Z", "window_end_utc": "2026-09-01T06:30:00Z", "timezone": "Asia/Shanghai", "events": [ { "event_id": "reuters-metals-20260901-spot-gold-0432", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "现货黄金报 4428.54 美元，日跌 0.4%", "event_time_utc": "2026-09-01T04:32:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-01T02:56:49.953Z", "asset_keys": ["AU"], "direction_score": {"AU": -1}, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_date": "Sept 1, 2026", "quote_time": "0432 GMT", "spot_gold": "4428.54 USD/oz", "change": "-0.4%", "prior_session_low": "lowest since August 19, 2026" }, "transmission_chain": "现货黄金在 0432 GMT 报 4428.54 美元且日跌 0.4%→市场等待美国就业数据并提高政策利率预期→AU 无息资产的短线机会成本上升", "invalidation_conditions": "后续金价回到该报价上方且新的就业或联储信息压低加息预期时，当前下行事实的短线传导失效", "source_urls": 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0.1%→期货市场对联储政策与就业数据的定价偏弱→AU 期货短线价格承压", "invalidation_conditions": "后续美国期金收复该报价且利率预期反向下修时，当前下行事实的短线传导失效", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-muted-traders-await-us-jobs-data-monitor-mideast-tensions-2026-09-01/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-muted-traders-await-us-jobs-data-monitor-mideast-tensions-2026-09-01/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-muted-traders-await-us-jobs-data-monitor-mideast-tensions-2026-09-01/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-muted-traders-await-us-jobs-data-monitor-mideast-tensions-2026-09-01/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "reuters-metals-20260901-spot-silver-0432", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "现货白银报 66.42 美元，日跌 0.2%", "event_time_utc": "2026-09-01T04:32:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-01T02:56:49.953Z", "asset_keys": ["AG"], "direction_score": {"AG": -1}, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_date": "Sept 1, 2026", "quote_time": "0432 GMT", "spot_silver": "66.42 USD/oz", "change": "-0.2%" }, "transmission_chain": "现货白银在 0432 GMT 报 66.42 美元且日跌 0.2%→金银市场共同受到利率预期与避险事件定价影响→AG 短线价格承压", "invalidation_conditions": "后续现货白银回到该报价上方且新的政策或地缘信息改善风险偏好时，当前下行事实的短线传导失效", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-muted-traders-await-us-jobs-data-monitor-mideast-tensions-2026-09-01/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-muted-traders-await-us-jobs-data-monitor-mideast-tensions-2026-09-01/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-muted-traders-await-us-jobs-data-monitor-mideast-tensions-2026-09-01/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-muted-traders-await-us-jobs-data-monitor-mideast-tensions-2026-09-01/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "reuters-macro-20260901-september-hike-probability-0445", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "CME FedWatch 显示 9 月加息概率为 66%", "event_time_utc": "2026-09-01T04:32:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-01T02:56:49.953Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": -1, "AG": -1}, "confidence": 91, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_date": "Sept 1, 2026", "CME_FedWatch": { "September_rate_hike_probability": "66%", "December_rate_hike_probability": "89%" }, "Reuters_update_time": "2026-09-01T04:45:05.285Z" }, "transmission_chain": "CME FedWatch 显示 9 月加息概率为 66%、12 月为 89%→预期政策利率路径上移→AU 与 AG 的无息资产机会成本上升", "invalidation_conditions": "后续美国就业或通胀数据使 9 月、12 月加息概率明显回落时，当前利率预期传导失效", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-muted-traders-await-us-jobs-data-monitor-mideast-tensions-2026-09-01/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-muted-traders-await-us-jobs-data-monitor-mideast-tensions-2026-09-01/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-muted-traders-await-us-jobs-data-monitor-mideast-tensions-2026-09-01/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-muted-traders-await-us-jobs-data-monitor-mideast-tensions-2026-09-01/))"], "source_tier": "B" } ], "coverage_gaps": [ { "item": "SLV 持仓日变动（2026-08-31）", "status": "未形成窗口事件", "detail": "本轮改查 iShares 官方产品页。页面有 2026-08-31 的 Ounces in Trust 493832733.20 troy ounces、Shares Outstanding 546350000 股等静态截面值，但没有与前一交易日的可比较变动，也没有页面最后更新时间，无法形成 14:30 窗口内的新持仓变动事件。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund)](https://ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund))"] }, { "item": "COMEX 金银库存分级变动（2026-09-01）", "status": "未交付", "detail": "本轮改查 CME NYMEX、COMEX Delivery Notices & Stocks 官方入口。页面只列 Gold Stocks 与 Silver Stocks 文件入口，没有 2026-09-01 的 registered 或 eligible 数值；Google 针对 Reuters 数值转述的检索也无结果。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/solutions/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/nymex-delivery-notices.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/solutions/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/nymex-delivery-notices.html)](https://cmegroup.com/solutions/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/nymex-delivery-notices.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/solutions/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/nymex-delivery-notices.html))", "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls)](https://cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls))", "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls)](https://cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls))" ] } ], "window_checks": [ { "item": "SHFE 黄金与白银日交易快讯（2026-09-01）", "status": "窗口外", "detail": "官方原始返回 update_date=20260901 14:39:01（Asia/Shanghai），晚于本期 14:30 截止时间，未倒填。", "source_urls": ["https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/kx20260901.dat"] }, { "item": "SGE 每日行情（2026-09-01）", "status": "未形成可核验事件", "detail": "官方每日行情页本轮返回查询框架和表头，没有 2026-09-01 具体数值，也没有可证明的发布时间。", "source_urls": ["https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/quotation_daily_new?start_date=2026-09-01&end_date=2026-09-01"] }, { "item": "GLD 持仓日变动（2026-08-31）", "status": "本窗口已由前次汇总覆盖", "detail": "本轮复查 SPDR 官方产品页。页面提供 2026-08-31 持仓 33512833.02 troy ounces，但没有新的窗口内变动事实；该日期持平记录已在此前 08:30 汇总发布，本期不重复发送。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/](https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/)](https://spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/](https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/))"] } ] }