夜盘前汇总：上金所日收、上期所仓单与欧美金银报价

{ "window_start_utc": "2026-08-25T06:30:00Z", "window_end_utc": "2026-08-25T12:30:00Z", "timezone": "Asia/Shanghai", "events": [ { "event_id": "SGE-AU-20260825-daily-au9999-100000", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "上金所 Au99.99 日收报 1000.00 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-25T07:30:00Z", "asset_keys": [ "AU" ], "direction_score": { "AU": -1 }, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": "上海黄金交易所每日行情（日期 2026-08-25）：Au99.99 开盘 1004.00 CNY/g，最高 1012.60 CNY/g，最低 998.50 CNY/g，收盘 1000.00 CNY/g，涨跌-4.21 CNY/g，涨跌幅-0.42%，加权平均价 1004.09 CNY/g，成交量 4636.6 kg，成交金额 4655574169.4 CNY。页面未给出精确发布时间；日盘交易至 15:30（Asia/Shanghai）。", "transmission_chain": "Au99.99 日收下跌 0.42%→上金所现货黄金报价回落→AU 日内价格偏弱", "invalidation_conditions": "上金所后续修正 2026-08-25 每日行情收盘或涨跌幅，或更高频官方收盘取代该数值时，当前事件失效。", "source_urls": [ "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/quotation_daily_new?start_date=2026-08-25&end_date=2026-08-25" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "SGE-AU-20260825-daily-autd-100173", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "上金所 Au(T+D)日收报 1001.73 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-25T07:30:00Z", "asset_keys": [ "AU" ], "direction_score": { "AU": 1 }, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": "上海黄金交易所每日行情（日期 2026-08-25）：Au(T+D)开盘 1006.00 CNY/g，最高 1012.00 CNY/g，最低 997.29 CNY/g，收盘 1001.73 CNY/g，涨跌+1.88 CNY/g，涨跌幅+0.19%，加权平均价 1004.46 CNY/g，成交量 58266 kg，成交金额 58525870660 CNY，市场持仓 243540 手，交收方向多支付给空，交收量 16378 手。页面未给出精确发布时间；日盘交易至 15:30（Asia/Shanghai）。", "transmission_chain": "Au(T+D)日收上涨 0.19%→上金所黄金延期合约收盘偏强→AU 日内延期端价格偏强", "invalidation_conditions": "上金所后续修正 2026-08-25 Au(T+D)收盘、涨跌或持仓，或更高频官方收盘取代该数值时，当前事件失效。", "source_urls": [ "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/quotation_daily_new?start_date=2026-08-25&end_date=2026-08-25" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "SGE-AG-20260825-daily-agtd-16549", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "上金所 Ag(T+D)日收报 16549 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-25T07:30:00Z", "asset_keys": [ "AG" ], "direction_score": { "AG": -1 }, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": "上海黄金交易所每日行情（日期 2026-08-25）：Ag(T+D)开盘 16808.00 CNY/kg，最高 17012.00 CNY/kg，最低 16418.00 CNY/kg，收盘 16549.00 CNY/kg，涨跌-230 CNY/kg，涨跌幅-1.37%，加权平均价 16630.00 CNY/kg，成交量 453910 kg，成交金额 7548604206 CNY，市场持仓 2832240 手，交收方向空支付给多，交收量 42300 手。页面未给出精确发布时间；日盘交易至 15:30（Asia/Shanghai）。", "transmission_chain": "Ag(T+D)日收下跌 1.37%→上金所白银延期合约收盘回落→AG 日内价格偏弱", "invalidation_conditions": "上金所后续修正 2026-08-25 Ag(T+D)收盘、涨跌或持仓，或更高频官方收盘取代该数值时，当前事件失效。", "source_urls": [ "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/quotation_daily_new?start_date=2026-08-25&end_date=2026-08-25" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "SGE-AU-20260825-delayed-au9999-1000", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "上金所延时 Au99.99 报 1000.0 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-25T00:00:00Z", "asset_keys": [ "AU" ], "direction_score": { "AU": 0 }, "confidence": 98, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": "上海黄金交易所 2026 年 08 月 25 日延时行情：Au99.99 最新价 1000.0 CNY/g，最高价 1003.0 CNY/g，最低价 1000.0 CNY/g，今开盘 1002.0 CNY/g。相对同日官方日收盘 1000.00 CNY/g 持平；相对上一期 14:30 快照 1004.31 CNY/g 减少 4.31 CNY/g，约减少 0.429%。页面只标注日期 2026 年 08 月 25 日，未提供具体发布时间。", "transmission_chain": "延时行情 Au99.99 回落至 1000.0 CNY/g→上金所场内黄金即时报价贴近日收→AU 短线报价中性偏弱", "invalidation_conditions": "上金所后续修正 2026-08-25 延时行情快照，或更高频官方报价取代该数值时，当前事件失效。", "source_urls": [ "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/yshqbg", "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/quotation_daily_new?start_date=2026-08-25&end_date=2026-08-25" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "SGE-AU-20260825-delayed-autd-10001", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "上金所延时 Au(T+D)报 1000.1 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-25T00:00:00Z", "asset_keys": [ "AU" ], "direction_score": { "AU": -1 }, "confidence": 98, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": "上海黄金交易所 2026 年 08 月 25 日延时行情：Au(T+D)最新价 1000.1 CNY/g，最高价 1001.81 CNY/g，最低价 1000.0 CNY/g，今开盘 1001.0 CNY/g。相对同日官方日收盘 1001.73 CNY/g 减少 1.63 CNY/g，约减少 0.1627%；相对上一期 14:30 快照 1004.13 CNY/g 减少 4.03 CNY/g，约减少 0.4013%。页面只标注日期 2026 年 08 月 25 日，未提供具体发布时间。", "transmission_chain": "延时行情 Au(T+D)低于日收至 1000.1 CNY/g→上金所黄金延期合约夜盘开盘前后报价回落→AU 短线延期端偏弱", "invalidation_conditions": "上金所后续修正 2026-08-25 延时行情快照，或更高频官方报价取代该数值时，当前事件失效。", "source_urls": [ "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/yshqbg", "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/quotation_daily_new?start_date=2026-08-25&end_date=2026-08-25" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "SGE-AG-20260825-delayed-agtd-16465", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "上金所延时 Ag(T+D)报 16465 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-25T00:00:00Z", "asset_keys": [ "AG" ], "direction_score": { "AG": -1 }, "confidence": 98, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": "上海黄金交易所 2026 年 08 月 25 日延时行情：Ag(T+D)最新价 16465.0 CNY/kg，最高价 16533.0 CNY/kg，最低价 16465.0 CNY/kg，今开盘 16533.0 CNY/kg。相对同日官方日收盘 16549.00 CNY/kg 减少 84.00 CNY/kg，约减少 0.5076%；相对上一期 14:30 快照 16624.0 CNY/kg 减少 159.0 CNY/kg，约减少 0.9564%。页面只标注日期 2026 年 08 月 25 日，未提供具体发布时间。", "transmission_chain": "延时行情 Ag(T+D)低于日收至 16465.0 CNY/kg→上金所白银延期合约夜盘开盘前后报价继续回落→AG 短线价格偏弱", "invalidation_conditions": "上金所后续修正 2026-08-25 延时行情快照，或更高频官方报价取代该数值时，当前事件失效。", "source_urls": [ "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/yshqbg", "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/quotation_daily_new?start_date=2026-08-25&end_date=2026-08-25" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "SHFE-AU-20260825-au2610-100422", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "上期所沪金主连收 1004.22 元", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-25T08:03:04Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-25T08:03:04Z", "asset_keys": [ "AU" ], "direction_score": { "AU": 1 }, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": "上海期货交易所日交易快讯接口 kx20260825.dat（report_date=20260825，update_date=20260825 16:03:04 Asia/Shanghai，即 2026-08-25T08:03:04Z）：黄金主力合约 AU2610 开盘 1010 CNY/g，最高 1015.38 CNY/g，最低 1000.2 CNY/g，收盘 1004.22 CNY/g，涨跌+4.36 CNY/g（相对前结算 999.86），结算价 1008.92 CNY/g，成交量 431132 手，持仓 201084 手，持仓变化-7860 手，成交额 43498597.38（接口原字段单位）。", "transmission_chain": "沪金主力日收上涨 4.36 CNY/g 且持仓减少 7860 手→国内黄金期货价格上行、持仓收缩→AU 日内期货端偏强", "invalidation_conditions": "上期所后续修正 20260825 日交易快讯中 AU2610 收盘、结算或持仓，或发布新文件取代该快照时，当前事件失效。", "source_urls": [ "https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/kx20260825.dat" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "SHFE-AG-20260825-ag2610-16631", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "上期所沪银主连收 16631 元", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-25T08:03:04Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-25T08:03:04Z", "asset_keys": [ "AG" ], "direction_score": { "AG": -1 }, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": "上海期货交易所日交易快讯接口 kx20260825.dat（report_date=20260825，update_date=20260825 16:03:04 Asia/Shanghai，即 2026-08-25T08:03:04Z）：白银主力合约 AG2610 开盘 16841 CNY/kg，最高 17072 CNY/kg，最低 16460 CNY/kg，收盘 16631 CNY/kg，涨跌-254 CNY/kg（相对前结算 16885），结算价 16775 CNY/kg，成交量 752304 手，持仓 282243 手，持仓变化-16027 手，成交额 18929987.3745（接口原字段单位）。", "transmission_chain": "沪银主力日收下跌 254 CNY/kg 且持仓减少 16027 手→国内白银期货价格回落、持仓收缩→AG 日内期货端偏弱", "invalidation_conditions": "上期所后续修正 20260825 日交易快讯中 AG2610 收盘、结算或持仓，或发布新文件取代该快照时，当前事件失效。", "source_urls": [ "https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/kx20260825.dat" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "SHFE-AU-20260825-warrant-113658", "event_type": "inventory", "title": "上期所黄金仓单 113658 千克持平", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-25T07:30:00Z", "asset_keys": [ "AU" ], "direction_score": { "AU": 0 }, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": "上海期货交易所仓单日报官方页面 dailystock_20260825（单位：千克）：黄金「上期所指定交割金库」期货仓单 113658 kg，增减 0 kg。对比同系列 20260824 页面，黄金仓单同为 113658 kg、增减 0 kg。页面未提供精确发布时间；统计日期为 2026-08-25。", "transmission_chain": "黄金仓单总量持平于 113658 kg→可交割黄金库存未变→AU 库存端信号中性", "invalidation_conditions": "上期所后续修正 20260825 黄金仓单日报，或次日仓单显示增减并取代当前状态时，当前事件失效。", "source_urls": [ "https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260825/ZH/all.html", "https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260824/ZH/all.html" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "SHFE-AG-20260825-warrant-1412903", "event_type": "inventory", "title": "上期所白银仓单减至 1412903 千克", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-25T07:30:00Z", "asset_keys": [ "AG" ], "direction_score": { "AG": 1 }, "confidence": 99, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": "上海期货交易所仓单日报官方页面 dailystock_20260825（单位：千克）：白银总计 1412903 kg，增减-8220 kg。分项：上海中储吴淞 120970（增减 0）、外运华东虹桥 230081（增减+2813）、中工美供应链 837706（增减-3735），上海合计 1188757（增减-922）；广东深圳威豹 224146（增减-7298）。对比同系列 20260824 页面，白银总计 1421123 kg、增减+25816 kg。页面未提供精确发布时间；统计日期为 2026-08-25。", "transmission_chain": "白银仓单减少 8220 kg 至 1412903 kg→可交割白银库存下降→AG 供给端压力减轻", "invalidation_conditions": "上期所后续修正 20260825 白银仓单日报，或次日仓单回升并取代当前库存状态时，当前事件失效。", "source_urls": [ "https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260825/ZH/all.html", "https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260824/ZH/all.html" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AU-20260825-spot-gold-464040", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "路透更新现货黄金报 4640.40 美元", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-25T11:28:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-25T11:34:17.913Z", "asset_keys": [ "AU" ], "direction_score": { "AU": -1 }, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": "Reuters 贵金属报道在 2026-08-25T11:34:17.913Z 更新：现货黄金报 4640.40 USD/oz，下跌 0.2%；原文报价时间为 1128 GMT，即 2026-08-25T11:28:00Z。页面原始发布时间为 2026-08-25T02:10:08.558Z，本事件依据窗口内更新内容入流。上一期同源窗口快照为 4640.39 USD/oz。", "transmission_chain": "现货黄金较前值下跌 0.2%→美元与获利了结变量进入黄金美元报价→AU 短线价格偏弱", "invalidation_conditions": "Reuters 后续更正该报价或跌幅，或窗口内更高频一手报价取代该数值时，当前事件失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-highest-since-mid-may-buying-momentum-builds-2026-08-25/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-highest-since-mid-may-buying-momentum-builds-2026-08-25/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-highest-since-mid-may-buying-momentum-builds-2026-08-25/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-highest-since-mid-may-buying-momentum-builds-2026-08-25/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AU-20260825-gold-futures-469610", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "路透更新美国黄金期货报 4696.10 美元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-25T11:34:17.913Z", "asset_keys": [ "AU" ], "direction_score": { "AU": 0 }, "confidence": 93, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": "Reuters 贵金属报道在 2026-08-25T11:34:17.913Z 更新：美国黄金期货报 4696.10 USD/oz，原文表述为 steady（持平）。原文未提供该期货报价的独立时刻，日期为 2026-08-25。上一期同源窗口快照为 4696.00 USD/oz。", "transmission_chain": "美国黄金期货报 4696.10 USD/oz 且持平→期货端暂未出现新的方向变化→AU 短线期货价格信号中性", "invalidation_conditions": "Reuters 后续修正 4696.10 USD/oz 或持平状态，或更高频一手期货报价取代该快照时，当前事件失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-highest-since-mid-may-buying-momentum-builds-2026-08-25/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-highest-since-mid-may-buying-momentum-builds-2026-08-25/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-highest-since-mid-may-buying-momentum-builds-2026-08-25/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-highest-since-mid-may-buying-momentum-builds-2026-08-25/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AG-20260825-spot-silver-6803", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "路透更新现货白银报 68.03 美元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-25T11:34:17.913Z", "asset_keys": [ "AG" ], "direction_score": { "AG": -1 }, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": "Reuters 贵金属报道在 2026-08-25T11:34:17.913Z 更新：现货白银报 68.03 USD/oz，下跌 1.3%。原文未提供该报价的独立时刻，日期为 2026-08-25。上一期同源窗口快照为 68.01 USD/oz。", "transmission_chain": "现货白银下跌 1.3%→白银美元计价承压→AG 短线价格偏弱", "invalidation_conditions": "Reuters 后续更正该报价或跌幅，或更高频一手白银报价取代该数值时，当前事件失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-highest-since-mid-may-buying-momentum-builds-2026-08-25/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-highest-since-mid-may-buying-momentum-builds-2026-08-25/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-highest-since-mid-may-buying-momentum-builds-2026-08-25/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-highest-since-mid-may-buying-momentum-builds-2026-08-25/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AU-20260825-global-gold-4624", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "路透全球市场页黄金报 4624 美元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-25T09:17:54.239Z", "asset_keys": [ "AU" ], "direction_score": { "AU": -1 }, "confidence": 92, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": "Reuters 全球市场页面在 2026-08-25T09:17:54.239Z 更新：现货黄金报 4624 USD/oz，下跌 0.6%；并称当月累计上涨 15%。页面原始发布时间为 2026-08-25T01:26:32.610Z，原文未提供黄金报价的独立时刻，日期为 2026-08-25。上一期同源窗口快照为 4635.89 USD/oz。", "transmission_chain": "全球市场页现货黄金下跌 0.6%至 4624 USD/oz→美元与风险偏好变量进入黄金定价→AU 短线价格偏弱", "invalidation_conditions": "Reuters 后续更正该页面报价或跌幅，或更高频一手报价取代该快照时，当前事件失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-25/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-25/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-25/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-25/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "CLS-AG-20260825-spot-silver-6755", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "财联社报现货白银跌至 67.55 美元", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-25T09:06:14Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-25T09:06:14Z", "asset_keys": [ "AG" ], "direction_score": { "AG": -2 }, "confidence": 94, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": "财联社电报页面标注时间 2026 年 08 月 25 日 17:06:14（Asia/Shanghai，即 2026-08-25T09:06:14Z）：现货白银日内跌幅扩大至 2%，报 67.55 USD/oz。", "transmission_chain": "现货白银跌至 67.55 USD/oz 且日内跌幅扩大至 2%→白银美元报价加速回落→AG 短线价格偏弱", "invalidation_conditions": "财联社后续更正该电报报价或跌幅，或更高频一手白银报价明确取代该数值时，当前事件失效。", "source_urls": [ "https://www.cls.cn/detail/2463646" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AU-20260825-wgc-etf-467t", "event_type": "etf_flow", "title": "WGC 称上周黄金 ETF 流入 46.7 吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-25T11:34:17.913Z", "asset_keys": [ "AU" ], "direction_score": { "AU": 1 }, "confidence": 90, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": "Reuters 贵金属报道在 2026-08-25T11:34:17.913Z 更新并援引 World Gold Council：gold-backed ETFs 上周流入 46.7 metric tons，对应约 6.4 billion USD，为 10 个月来最大单周需求。原文未给出该周统计起止日的精确时刻，日期语境为 2026-08-25 报道。本轮未能从 WGC 官方周报页面核验到同一 46.7 吨周度数字。", "transmission_chain": "黄金 ETF 上周流入 46.7 吨→实物支持 ETF 持仓上升→AU 中期需求端偏强", "invalidation_conditions": "World Gold Council 官方数据修正该周流入量，或 Reuters 撤回/更正该转述时，当前事件失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-highest-since-mid-may-buying-momentum-builds-2026-08-25/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-highest-since-mid-may-buying-momentum-builds-2026-08-25/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-highest-since-mid-may-buying-momentum-builds-2026-08-25/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-highest-since-mid-may-buying-momentum-builds-2026-08-25/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260825-usd-fx-13860", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "路透报美元兑加元升至 1.3860", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-25T09:19:13.518Z", "asset_keys": [ "AU", "AG" ], "direction_score": { "AU": -1, "AG": -1 }, "confidence": 93, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": "Reuters 美元报道在 2026-08-25T09:19:13.518Z 更新：美元兑加元报 1.3860，上涨 0.1%；欧元兑美元报 1.1659；美元兑日元报 159.34，上涨 0.1%；英镑兑美元报 1.3639。原文称美元在伊朗制裁与美债回购相关消息下回升部分涨幅。页面原始发布时间为 2026-08-25T01:31:08.151Z；各汇率未单列独立报价时刻，日期为 2026-08-25。上一期窗口曾报美元兑加元 1.3844。", "transmission_chain": "美元兑主要货币回升→美元计价贵金属对海外买家变贵→AU 与 AG 短线承压", "invalidation_conditions": "Reuters 后续更正上述汇率快照，或更高频一手汇率报价明确取代该组数值时，当前事件失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/business/dollar-struggles-traction-markets-weigh-iran-sanctions-treasury-buybacks-2026-08-25/](https://www.reuters.com/business/dollar-struggles-traction-markets-weigh-iran-sanctions-treasury-buybacks-2026-08-25/)](https://reuters.com/business/dollar-struggles-traction-markets-weigh-iran-sanctions-treasury-buybacks-2026-08-25/](https://www.reuters.com/business/dollar-struggles-traction-markets-weigh-iran-sanctions-treasury-buybacks-2026-08-25/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AU-20260825-fedwatch-sep-40", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "CME FedWatch 显示 9 月加息概率 40%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-25T11:34:17.913Z", "asset_keys": [ "AU" ], "direction_score": { "AU": -1 }, "confidence": 88, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": "Reuters 贵金属报道在 2026-08-25T11:34:17.913Z 更新并援引 CME FedWatch Tool：交易员为 9 月美国加息定价约 40%概率，为维持利率不变定价约 60%概率。原文同时提示市场关注周三 PCE 通胀与周五美联储主席 Kevin Warsh 在 Jackson Hole 的首秀讲话。原文未给出 FedWatch 截图时刻，日期语境为 2026-08-25。", "transmission_chain": "9 月加息概率约 40%→利率路径预期仍含紧缩可能→实际利率与持有黄金机会成本预期上升→AU 中期承压", "invalidation_conditions": "CME FedWatch 后续显著下调 9 月加息概率，或 Reuters 更正该概率转述时，当前事件失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-highest-since-mid-may-buying-momentum-builds-2026-08-25/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-highest-since-mid-may-buying-momentum-builds-2026-08-25/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-highest-since-mid-may-buying-momentum-builds-2026-08-25/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-highest-since-mid-may-buying-momentum-builds-2026-08-25/))" ], "source_tier": "B" } ], "coverage_gaps": [ { "item": "GLD/SLV 每日持仓变动", "status": "未交付", "detail": "本轮复查 SPDR 官方 GLD 页面（持仓字段仍为 AWAITING）、J.P. Morgan GLD 金条清单（As at:24-August-2026，Total Fine Ounces 31,257,607.968）、iShares SLV 页面（Ounces in Trust 495,097,780.60 / Tonnes 15,399.26，as of Aug 24, 2026）与 J.P. Morgan SLV 银条清单（As at:24-August-2026，Total Fine Ounces 495,098,595.900）。均无法证明 2026-08-25T06:30:00Z 至 12:30:00Z 窗口内首次发布的每日持仓变动，未把旧快照冒充新事件。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/](https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/)](https://spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/](https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/))", "[https://emea-[markets.jpmorgan.com/metalicsWebAppJanus/publicUnauthenticated/SPDR_GOLD_TRUST_JPM_BARLIST.pdf](https://emea-markets.jpmorgan.com/metalicsWebAppJanus/publicUnauthenticated/SPDR_GOLD_TRUST_JPM_BARLIST.pdf)](https://markets.jpmorgan.com/metalicsWebAppJanus/publicUnauthenticated/SPDR_GOLD_TRUST_JPM_BARLIST.pdf](https://emea-markets.jpmorgan.com/metalicsWebAppJanus/publicUnauthenticated/SPDR_GOLD_TRUST_JPM_BARLIST.pdf))", "[https://www.[ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund)](https://ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund))", "[https://emea-[markets.jpmorgan.com/metalicsWebAppJanus/publicUnauthenticated/BONY_SLV.pdf](https://emea-markets.jpmorgan.com/metalicsWebAppJanus/publicUnauthenticated/BONY_SLV.pdf)](https://markets.jpmorgan.com/metalicsWebAppJanus/publicUnauthenticated/BONY_SLV.pdf](https://emea-markets.jpmorgan.com/metalicsWebAppJanus/publicUnauthenticated/BONY_SLV.pdf))" ] }, { "item": "COMEX 金银 registered/eligible 库存分级变动", "status": "未交付", "detail": "本轮继续尝试 CME Gold Stocks XLS 下载，仍返回 403；Registrar Reports 入口与公开搜索未返回可核验的 registered/eligible 分级数字。未使用非白名单转述。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html)](https://cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html))", "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls)](https://cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls))", "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls)](https://cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls))" ] }, { "item": "美国财政部 TIPS 实际收益率窗口内新行", "status": "未交付", "detail": "美国财政部 2026 年 Daily Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates CSV 当前最新可读日期仍为 08/24/2026（5Y 2.09、7Y 2.22、10Y 2.38、20Y 2.75、30Y 2.97），未取得 2026-08-25 窗口内新行，旧行未作为本窗口事件发布。", "source_urls": [ "[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?field_tdr_date_value=2026&type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&utm=&page=&_format=csv](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?field_tdr_date_value=2026&type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&utm=&page=&_format=csv)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?field_tdr_date_value=2026&type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&utm=&page=&_format=csv](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?field_tdr_date_value=2026&type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&utm=&page=&_format=csv))" ] }, { "item": "SGE 周频出入库与黄金库存细分", "status": "部分交付", "detail": "上一期已交付第 32 期周报交割量与白银指定仓库库存；本窗口未发现更新期次。官方延时行情与每日行情可提供价格，但不提供本窗口要求的金银出入库细分与独立黄金指定仓库库存。", "source_urls": [ "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/hqzb", "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/yshqbg", "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/quotation_daily_new?start_date=2026-08-25&end_date=2026-08-25" ] } ] }