2026-09-07 20:30|金银续跌、白银仓单减少

2026-09-07 20:30|金银续跌、白银仓单减少

覆盖14:30—20:30窗口:上期所金银持仓与仓单更新、路透金银报价及海湾油价与地缘事件,并标注三项尚未核验的硬性输入。

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"title": "现货金报 4392.88 美元,现货银报 65.48 美元", "event_time_utc": "2026-09-07T10:36:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-07T11:01:56.792Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": -2, "AG": -2}, "confidence": 88, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": "Reuters 在 1036 GMT 报道:现货黄金下跌 0.8%,报 4392.88 美元/盎司;12 月美国黄金期货下跌 0.8%,报 4438.70 美元/盎司;现货白银下跌 1%,报 65.48 美元/盎司。CME FedWatch 显示,下周政策会议加息概率为 58%,非农发布前为 50%。该路透稿 modified_time=2026-09-07T11:01:56.792Z。", "transmission_chain": "强劲就业数据→加息概率上升→无息金银的利率机会成本上升→AU 与 AG 承压。", "invalidation_conditions": "路透修订上述 1036 GMT 报价、涨跌幅或 FedWatch 概率,或 CME FedWatch 随后更正该概率。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-eases-robust-us-payrolls-boost-rate-hike-bets-inflation-data-focus-2026-09-07/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-eases-robust-us-payrolls-boost-rate-hike-bets-inflation-data-focus-2026-09-07/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-eases-robust-us-payrolls-boost-rate-hike-bets-inflation-data-focus-2026-09-07/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-eases-robust-us-payrolls-boost-rate-hike-bets-inflation-data-focus-2026-09-07/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AU-20260907-oil-geopolitics", "title": "布伦特原油升至 97 美元,伊朗局势升级", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-07T11:10:44.057Z", "asset_keys": ["AU"], "direction_score": {"AU": 0}, "confidence": 84, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": "Reuters 报道:美军击中 3 艘伊朗油轮;伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队向 2 艘美国海军舰艇发射弹道导弹;德黑兰称将公布霍尔木兹海峡外限制区。布伦特原油期货上涨 0.6%,至 97 美元/桶,创七周新高;上周累计上涨近 8%,较 2 月底战争开始前高 35%。该路透稿 modified_time=2026-09-07T11:10:44.057Z。", "transmission_chain": "海湾冲突与油价上涨→避险需求与通胀/利率压力同时上升→AU 方向暂中性,待两条传导的主导性验证。", "invalidation_conditions": "路透修订军事实例、限制区表述或布伦特 97 美元与 0.6%涨幅。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-09-07/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-09-07/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-09-07/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-09-07/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "SHFE-AUAG-20260907-warehouse-warrants", "title": "上期所黄金仓单持平,白银仓单减 841 千克", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-07T12:50:19Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": 0, "AG": 1}, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": "SHFE 2026-09-07 第 165 期仓单日报:黄金期货仓单 114858 千克,增减 0 千克;白银期货仓单 1405940 千克,增减-841 千克。报告注释:期货为已制成仓单的货物数量。", "transmission_chain": "交易所白银仓单减少→可交割库存轻微收缩→AG 获得轻微供给端支撑;黄金仓单持平→AU 库存信号中性。", "invalidation_conditions": "上期所修订 2026 年 9 月 7 日仓单日报的黄金或白银总计及增减字段。", "source_urls": ["https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260907/ZH/all.html"], "source_tier": "A" } ], "coverage_gaps": [ { "coverage": "COMEX 金银 registered/eligible 库存分级变动", "status": "unverified", "detail": "CME Registrar Reports 页面仍未给出本窗口可核验的报告日期与 registered、eligible 数值;本轮改用彭博站内定向检索,未返回可核验的窗口内数值原文。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html)](https://cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html))"] }, { "coverage": "SGE 周频出入库", "status": "unverified", "detail": "本轮改查 PublicNow 的 SGE 镜像,检索到的仅为 2026 年 8 月月度数据亮点,未取得本窗口新周频出入库数字。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[publicnow.com/view/CA4D575927EC83AA6F3616945E94B94FA8A56789](https://www.publicnow.com/view/CA4D575927EC83AA6F3616945E94B94FA8A56789)](https://publicnow.com/view/CA4D575927EC83AA6F3616945E94B94FA8A56789](https://www.publicnow.com/view/CA4D575927EC83AA6F3616945E94B94FA8A56789))"] }, { "coverage": "GLD/SLV 每日持仓变动", "status": "stale", "detail": "GLD 官方 Trust Information 最新日期为 2026 年 9 月 4 日;SLV 官方页面与历史文件未给出本窗口新的可比较持仓或份额记录。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/](https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/)](https://spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/](https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/))", "[https://www.[ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund)](https://ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund))"] } ] }

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