2026-08-10 13:30｜有色金属事件流（9条）
覆盖广东及华北铜、洋山铜、华中铝、四地锌及纯镍现货升贴水的9条结构化事件。
[
{
"event_id": "smm-guangdong-20260810-copper-spot",
"title": "广东铜升水日降60元/吨",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-10T03:46:00Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"source_urls": [
"https://news.metal.com/en/newscontent/104050302-premiums-and-copper-prices-both-decline-downstream-procurement-volume-increases-smm-south-china-spot-copper"
],
"source_tier": "B",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": -1
},
"confidence": 86,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": [
"2026年8月10日，广东1号铜对近月合约：高品质铜升水100元/吨，较前一交易日下降60元/吨",
"标准铜平水，较前一交易日下降60元/吨；湿法铜平水，较前一交易日下降60元/吨",
"广东1号铜均价107,945元/吨，较前一交易日下降410元/吨；湿法铜均价107,835元/吨，下降410元/吨",
"采购情绪指数2.35，较前一交易日上升0.07；销售情绪指数2.88，上升0.03"
],
"transmission_chain": "广东铜升水与成交价同步下调→现货紧张度和短期价格动量减弱→铜价及有色板块短线承压",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续广东高品质铜升水回升超过60元/吨，或现货库存下降并伴随采购情绪持续上升"
},
{
"event_id": "smm-north-china-20260810-copper-spot",
"title": "华北铜平均贴水扩大至205元/吨",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-10T03:33:00Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"source_urls": [
"https://news.metal.com/en/newscontent/104050871-copper-price-pullback-fails-to-boost-demand-north-china-spot-trades-remain-sluggish-smm-north-china-spot-copper"
],
"source_tier": "B",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": -1
},
"confidence": 87,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": [
"2026年8月10日，华北1号铜对近月合约贴水180—230元/吨，平均贴水205元/吨",
"平均贴水较前一交易日扩大55元/吨",
"平均成交价107,660元/吨，较前一交易日下降540元/吨",
"采购情绪指数1.01，较前一交易日下降0.10；销售情绪指数2.99，持平"
],
"transmission_chain": "华北铜贴水扩大且采购情绪下降→现货需求弱于供应意愿→铜价短线承压",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续华北铜贴水收窄超过55元/吨，且采购情绪指数回升至本次下滑前水平"
},
{
"event_id": "smm-yangshan-20260810-copper-premium",
"title": "洋山铜仓单溢价持平于101美元/吨",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-10T03:53:00Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"source_urls": [
"https://news.metal.com/en/newscontent/104051008-the-market-atmosphere-is-quiet-with-an-unfavorable-shfelme-price-ratio-leading-to-more-wait-and-see-attitudes-smm-yangsh"
],
"source_tier": "B",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": 0
},
"confidence": 84,
"horizon": "days",
"raw_facts": [
"2026年8月10日，洋山铜仓单均价101美元/吨，区间95—107美元/吨，较前一交易日持平",
"提单均价97美元/吨，区间90—104美元/吨，较前一交易日持平",
"EQ铜CIF提单均价65美元/吨，区间60—70美元/吨，较前一交易日持平",
"报价参考2026年8月至9月初到港货物"
],
"transmission_chain": "洋山铜三类溢价均持平→进口现货紧张度未进一步变化→对铜价形成中性信号",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续仓单或提单溢价突破本次区间，或SHFE/LME比价变化带动进口成交明显放量"
},
{
"event_id": "smm-central-china-20260810-aluminum-spot",
"title": "华中铝现货贴水120—140元/吨",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-10T02:45:00Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"source_urls": [
"https://news.metal.com/en/newscontent/104050242"
],
"source_tier": "B",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": -1
},
"confidence": 79,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": [
"2026年8月10日，华中铝现货对SHFE铝8月合约实际成交贴水120—140元/吨",
"SMM称铝价连续上涨且下游订单不足，终端加工企业采购意愿偏低",
"贸易商主要为期现套利采购，卖方数量增加"
],
"transmission_chain": "华中铝现货维持贴水且终端采购偏弱→现货承接力不足→铝价短线承压",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续华中铝贴水收窄至平水或升水，且终端企业采购量明显回升"
},
{
"event_id": "smm-guangdong-20260810-zinc-spot",
"title": "广东锌贴水65—85元/吨",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-10T03:25:00Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"source_urls": [
"https://news.metal.com/en/newscontent/104050742"
],
"source_tier": "B",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": 0
},
"confidence": 82,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": [
"2026年8月10日，广东0号锌主流成交价25,390—25,510元/吨",
"主流品牌对SHFE锌2609合约贴水65—85元/吨",
"广东现货较上海现货贴水55元/吨",
"采购情绪指数1.98，销售情绪指数2.60；SMM称现货升水小幅走强，但实际采购未明显改善"
],
"transmission_chain": "广东锌仍处贴水但贴水幅度收窄→刚需补库与淡季需求偏弱相互抵消→锌价短线信号中性",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续广东锌贴水明显扩大并伴随采购情绪下降，或转为升水且实际成交量增加"
},
{
"event_id": "smm-ningbo-20260810-zinc-spot",
"title": "宁波锌普通品牌升水15元/吨",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-10T03:32:00Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"source_urls": [
"https://news.metal.com/en/newscontent/104050814"
],
"source_tier": "B",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": 0
},
"confidence": 81,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": [
"2026年8月10日，宁波0号锌主流成交价25,485—25,605元/吨",
"普通品牌对SHFE锌2609合约升水15元/吨，较上海现货升水45元/吨",
"永昌对2609合约升水10—20元/吨，安宁升水10—30元/吨，红鹭-V（99.998）升水70元/吨",
"SMM称台风导致宁波多数下游工厂停产，下游询价和采购接近停滞"
],
"transmission_chain": "宁波锌维持小幅升水但台风抑制下游采购→供需两端同时受扰→锌价短线信号中性",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续下游复产后采购恢复并推动升水扩大，或到货恢复导致现货转为贴水"
},
{
"event_id": "smm-shanghai-20260810-zinc-spot",
"title": "上海锌普通品牌升水20—30元/吨",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-10T03:34:00Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"source_urls": [
"https://news.metal.com/en/newscontent/104050867"
],
"source_tier": "B",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": 0
},
"confidence": 82,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": [
"2026年8月10日，上海0号锌主流成交价25,475—25,625元/吨，1号锌主流成交价25,405—25,555元/吨",
"第二交易时段普通国产品牌对SHFE锌2609合约升水20—30元/吨，银色品牌升水50元/吨",
"双燕品牌对2609合约升水170元/吨",
"采购情绪指数1.84，销售情绪指数2.46；SMM称现货升水变化不大"
],
"transmission_chain": "上海锌升水基本稳定且采购情绪低于销售情绪→现货供需未出现单边强化→锌价短线信号中性",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续普通品牌升水突破本次区间并伴随采购情绪上升，或转为贴水且销售情绪继续增强"
},
{
"event_id": "smm-tianjin-20260810-zinc-spot",
"title": "天津锌贴水70—120元/吨",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-10T03:39:00Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"source_urls": [
"https://news.metal.com/en/newscontent/104050904"
],
"source_tier": "B",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": -1
},
"confidence": 82,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": [
"2026年8月10日，天津0号锌主流成交价25,340—25,520元/吨，1号锌成交价25,340—25,480元/吨",
"紫金对SHFE锌2609合约升水10—40元/吨，0号锌贴水70—120元/吨",
"天津现货较上海现货贴水约85元/吨",
"采购情绪指数1.77，销售情绪指数2.43；SMM称下游以刚需为主且询价较少"
],
"transmission_chain": "天津锌贴水且采购情绪低于销售情绪→现货需求弱于供应意愿→锌价短线承压",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续0号锌贴水收窄并转为升水，且采购情绪指数升至销售情绪指数之上"
},
{
"event_id": "smm-china-20260810-nickel-spot",
"title": "SMM纯镍均价日涨550元/吨",
"event_time_utc": null,
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-10T03:39:00Z",
"asset_keys": [
"NONFERROUS"
],
"source_urls": [
"https://news.metal.com/id/newscontent/104050877-smm-nickel-midday-review-harga-nikel-sedikit-naik-pada-10-agustus-sementara-ihk-juli-tiongkok-turun-01-secara-bulanan"
],
"source_tier": "B",
"event_type": "spot_basis",
"direction_score": {
"NONFERROUS": 1
},
"confidence": 85,
"horizon": "intraday",
"raw_facts": [
"2026年8月10日，SMM 1号纯镍均价130,450元/吨，较前一交易日上涨550元/吨",
"金川1号纯镍平均升水1,300元/吨，较前一交易日持平",
"国内主流电积镍升贴水区间为贴水200元/吨至升水400元/吨",
"SHFE镍2609合约上午收于129,570元/吨，上涨0.33%"
],
"transmission_chain": "纯镍现货与期货价格同步上涨且金川升水持稳→现货价格动量偏强→镍价及有色板块短线获得支撑",
"invalidation_conditions": "后续纯镍均价回吐550元/吨以上涨幅，或金川升水下滑且电积镍普遍转为贴水"
}
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