01:30|黄金4612.17美元,30年期收益率5.266%

01:30|黄金4612.17美元,30年期收益率5.266%

本期记录窗口内金银价格、波兰央行购金、美国名义收益率、美元指数和8月PMI的新数值,并逐项列出GLD/SLV、交易所库存仓单与TIPS核验缺口。

{ "schema_version": 1, "as_of": "2026-08-22 01:30:00+08:00", "window_start_utc": "2026-08-21T14:30:00Z", "window_end_utc": "2026-08-21T17:30:00Z", "asset_keys": [ "AU", "AG" ], "events": [ { "event_id": "Reuters-AU-20260821-gold-461217", "event_type": "supply_demand", "title": "现货金升至 4612.17 美元", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-21T16:29:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T16:57:52.540Z", "asset_keys": [ "AU" ], "direction_score": { "AU": 1 }, "confidence": 98, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_event_time_utc": "2026-08-21T16:29:00Z", "spot_gold": "4612.17 USD per ounce", "spot_gold_change": "+2.1% on the day", "intraday_high": "4620.14 USD per ounce", "US_gold_futures": "4670.60 USD per ounce", "previous_window_spot_gold": "4587.23 USD per ounce", "change_from_previous_window_snapshot": "+24.94 USD per ounce, approximately +0.543683%" }, "transmission_chain": "现货金升至 4612.17 美元且日内上涨 2.1%→贵金属短线买盘与美元、收益率定价共同作用于金价→AU 盘中方向偏强", "invalidation_conditions": "后续同一交易时段现货金跌回 4587.23 美元下方,或新的美元、收益率与宏观数据使本次上涨方向反转时,本事件的短线方向信号失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/)](https://reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AG-20260821-silver-6952", "event_type": "supply_demand", "title": "现货银升至 69.52 美元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T16:57:52.540Z", "asset_keys": [ "AG" ], "direction_score": { "AG": 1 }, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_event_date": "2026-08-21", "spot_silver": "69.52 USD per ounce", "spot_silver_change": "+2.1%", "previous_window_spot_silver": "69.48 USD per ounce", "change_from_previous_window_snapshot": "+0.04 USD per ounce, approximately +0.057571%", "source_event_time_note": "Reuters 原文未为现货白银报价提供独立精确时刻。" }, "transmission_chain": "现货银升至 69.52 美元且日内上涨 2.1%→白银买盘与黄金上涨、美元及收益率定价共同影响贵金属相对估值→AG 盘中方向偏强", "invalidation_conditions": "后续同一交易日现货银跌回 69.48 美元下方,或新的贵金属、美元与收益率数据使本次上涨方向反转时,本事件的短线方向信号失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/)](https://reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AU-20260821-poland-gold-78t", "event_type": "central_bank", "title": "波兰央行 7 月购金降至 7.8 吨", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T16:57:52.540Z", "asset_keys": [ "AU" ], "direction_score": { "AU": -1 }, "confidence": 88, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "source_event_month": "2026-07", "central_bank": "Poland's central bank", "gold_purchase": "7.8 metric tons", "source_event_time_note": "Reuters 原文仅给出 2026 年 7 月月份,未给出购金记录的精确日期或时刻。" }, "transmission_chain": "波兰央行 2026 年 7 月购金量降至 7.8 公吨→单一央行新增官方储备需求减弱→AU 中期央行购金支撑边际减弱", "invalidation_conditions": "波兰央行后续修订 2026 年 7 月购金量、公布更高的同期购金量,或后续月份购金明显回升并覆盖本月降幅时,本事件的中期方向信号失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/)](https://reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260821-long-yield-5266", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "美国 30 年期收益率升至 5.266%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T16:18:54.313Z", "asset_keys": [ "AU", "AG" ], "direction_score": { "AU": -1, "AG": -1 }, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_event_date": "2026-08-21", "rate_measure": "nominal_treasury_yield", "US_30Y_treasury_yield": "5.266%", "US_30Y_change": "+3 basis points", "US_10Y_treasury_yield": "4.73%", "US_10Y_change": "+3.2 basis points", "US_2Y_treasury_yield": "4.236%", "US_2Y_change": "+5 basis points", "source_event_time_note": "Reuters 原文给出 2026 年 8 月 21 日收益率状态及基点变化,未给出各期限报价的独立精确时刻。" }, "transmission_chain": "美国名义国债收益率全线走高且 2 年期上升 5 个基点→持有无息贵金属的相对机会成本与短端利率压力上升→AU 与 AG 短线承压", "invalidation_conditions": "后续美国 2 年期、10 年期和 30 年期收益率回落至本次状态下方,或新的宏观数据使利率上行定价反转时,本事件的短线方向信号失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-21/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-21/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260821-dollar-index-9874", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "美元指数报 98.74,周跌幅接近 0.9%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T16:18:54.313Z", "asset_keys": [ "AU", "AG" ], "direction_score": { "AU": 1, "AG": 1 }, "confidence": 93, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_event_date": "2026-08-21", "dollar_index": "98.74", "weekly_change": "off almost 0.9% for the week", "previous_window_snapshot": "98.76", "change_from_previous_window_snapshot": "-0.02", "source_event_time_note": "Reuters 原文未给出美元指数 98.74 的独立精确时刻;原文使用 almost 描述周跌幅。" }, "transmission_chain": "美元指数报 98.74 且当周跌幅接近 0.9%→美元计价贵金属的汇率折算压力减弱→AU 与 AG 获得边际支撑", "invalidation_conditions": "后续美元指数升回 98.76 上方并持续走强,或新的利率与宏观数据推动美元重新升值时,本事件的贵金属支撑信号失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-21/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-21/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260821-us-pmi-560", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "美国 8 月综合 PMI 升至 56.0", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T16:10:35.684Z", "asset_keys": [ "AU", "AG" ], "direction_score": { "AU": -1, "AG": -1 }, "confidence": 93, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_event_date": "2026-08-21", "services_PMI": { "actual": "56.8", "prior": "54.6", "consensus": "54.0" }, "composite_output_index": { "actual": "56.0", "prior": "54.5" }, "manufacturing_PMI": { "actual": "53.2", "prior": "53.9", "consensus": "53.9" }, "update_note": "Reuters 市场稿在 2026-08-21T16:10:35.684Z 更新后再次列出制造业 PMI 53.2 及路透调查预期 53.9;PMI 详情稿给出服务业、综合产出和制造业完整数值。", "source_event_time_note": "两篇 Reuters 稿件均未给出 PMI 发布的独立精确时刻。" }, "transmission_chain": "服务业 PMI56.8 和综合产出指数 56.0 均高于前值、服务业也高于预期→美国活动韧性可能抬高收益率与美元的利率定价→AU 与 AG 短线承压,制造业 PMI53.2 走弱形成部分对冲", "invalidation_conditions": "后续美国活动数据下修或收益率、美元未随 PMI 强势延续,或 PMI 数据被修订为更弱时,本事件的利率压力方向失效。", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-rise-after-sharp-losses-prior-session-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-rise-after-sharp-losses-prior-session-2026-08-21/)](https://reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-rise-after-sharp-losses-prior-session-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-rise-after-sharp-losses-prior-session-2026-08-21/))", "[https://www.[reuters.com/business/us-service-sector-fuels-acceleration-business-activity-sp-global-says-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/us-service-sector-fuels-acceleration-business-activity-sp-global-says-2026-08-21/)](https://reuters.com/business/us-service-sector-fuels-acceleration-business-activity-sp-global-says-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/us-service-sector-fuels-acceleration-business-activity-sp-global-says-2026-08-21/))" ], "source_tier": "B" } ], "coverage_gaps": [ { "scope": "GLD/SLV 持仓每日变动", "status": "unverified", "reason": "本轮新增尝试 SSGA 官方 Historical Archive API,返回官方历史 XLSX,但最新记录为 2026-08-20,未出现 2026-08-21 窗口记录;iShares 官方页面也只有截至 2026-08-20 的持仓快照,因此未取得窗口内 GLD 或 SLV 持仓变动及其发布时间证据。", "attempted_routes": [ "[https://api.[spdrgoldshares.com/api/v1/historical-archive?product=gld&exchange=NYSE&lang=en](https://api.spdrgoldshares.com/api/v1/historical-archive?product=gld&exchange=NYSE&lang=en)](https://spdrgoldshares.com/api/v1/historical-archive?product=gld&exchange=NYSE&lang=en](https://api.spdrgoldshares.com/api/v1/historical-archive?product=gld&exchange=NYSE&lang=en))", "[https://www.[ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund)](https://ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund))" ] }, { "scope": "COMEX 金银库存分级变动", "status": "unverified", "reason": "本轮尝试 CME 官方 Gold_Stocks.xls 与 Silver_stocks.xls 文件入口,访问均被拒且未返回库存文件,未取得窗口内 registered 或 eligible 数字。", "attempted_routes": [ "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls)](https://cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls))", "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls)](https://cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls))" ] }, { "scope": "SGE 出入库与库存", "status": "unverified", "reason": "本轮抓取 SGE 官方延时行情页,页面仅返回 2026-08-22 价格字段,没有窗口内出入库、库存或仓单字段;未以价格字段替代硬覆盖。", "attempted_routes": [ "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/yshqbg" ] }, { "scope": "SHFE AU/AG 仓单", "status": "unverified", "reason": "本轮抓取 SHFE 官方仓单日报入口,返回人机识别页,没有窗口内 AU 或 AG 仓单数字;未以交割通知或入口页面替代仓单日报。", "attempted_routes": [ "https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/dailydata/whbill/" ] }, { "scope": "美国财政部实际收益率日值", "status": "unverified", "reason": "本轮复核美国财政部官方 HTML、XML 和 CSV 入口,最新行仍为 2026-08-20,5Y/7Y/10Y/20Y/30Y 实际收益率为 2.05%/2.18%/2.35%/2.73%/2.95%,没有 2026-08-21 窗口内新行,因此未把名义国债收益率事件冒充 TIPS 事件。", "attempted_routes": [ "[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026))", "[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/xml?data=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026))", "[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026&page&_format=csv](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026&page&_format=csv)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026&page&_format=csv](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026&page&_format=csv))" ] } ] }

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