2026-08-04｜FOMC 维持目标区间，COT 与 SGE 白银库存更新
截至2026年8月4日10:00，已发布的FOMC决议、最新COT、美国CPI/PCE/非农及上金所周报事实字段集中列出，并附方向分与失效条件。
{
"schema_version": 1,
"as_of": "2026-08-04 10:00:00+08:00",
"asset_universe": ["AU", "AG", "COMEX_GC", "COMEX_SI", "GOLD_ETF"],
"events": [
{
"event_id": "cftc_cot_cmx_20260728_gold_silver",
"event_type": "COT",
"title": "CFTC COT：COMEX 金银期货持仓（截至 2026-07-28）",
"event_time_utc": "2026-07-28",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-07-28T00:00:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["COMEX_GC", "COMEX_SI"],
"status": "new",
"confidence": 100,
"direction_score": {
"COMEX_GC": 0,
"COMEX_SI": 0
},
"horizon": "weeks",
"transmission_chain": "COT 单期持仓快照→投机/商业净头寸结构已知但缺周环比→对金银价格方向中性，仅作仓位约束输入",
"invalidation_conditions": "若下一期 COT 给出可比较的周环比大幅增减仓，本条中性方向判断被新数据替代作废",
"source_urls": ["[https://www.[cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm](https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm)](https://cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm](https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm))"],
"source_tier": "A",
"raw_facts": {
"report_scope": "Futures only positions as of 07/28/26",
"published_time_note": "原文仅披露持仓截至日期，未披露报告发布时间",
"GOLD": {
"open_interest": "384,603",
"nonreportable": {"long": "219,622", "short": "37,552"},
"non_commercial": {"long": "28,137", "short": "75,460", "spreads": "287,769"},
"commercial": {"long": "323,219", "short": "353,458"},
"total_positions": {"long": "61,384", "short": "31,145"},
"trader_count_total": "256"
},
"SILVER": {
"open_interest": "106,719",
"nonreportable": {"long": "35,314", "short": "13,097"},
"non_commercial": {"long": "12,936", "short": "32,507", "spreads": "71,316"},
"commercial": {"long": "80,757", "short": "97,349"},
"total_positions": {"long": "25,962", "short": "9,370"},
"trader_count_total": "156"
}
},
"source": {
"tier": "A",
"title": "CFTC Commitments of Traders Report - CMX (Futures Only)",
"url": "[https://www.[cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm](https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm)](https://cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm](https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm))",
"published_at": "原文未披露",
"citation": "1"
}
},
{
"event_id": "fomc_statement_20260729",
"event_type": "FOMC_DECISION",
"title": "FOMC 维持利率于 3.5-3.75%，3 票异议主张加息",
"event_time_utc": "2026-07-29T18:00:00Z",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"published_at_utc": "2026-07-29T18:00:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["AU", "AG", "COMEX_GC", "COMEX_SI", "GOLD_ETF"],
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"confidence": 100,
"direction_score": {
"AU": -2,
"AG": -2,
"COMEX_GC": -2,
"COMEX_SI": -2,
"GOLD_ETF": -2
},
"horizon": "days",
"transmission_chain": "FOMC 维持利率且 3 票主张加息→实际利率与紧缩预期上移→压制无息资产金银",
"invalidation_conditions": "若下次 FOMC 声明删除加息倾向异议、或明确转向降息路径，本事件的利空判断作废",
"source_urls": ["[https://www.[federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm)](https://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm))"],
"source_tier": "A",
"raw_facts": {
"vote": "9–3",
"target_range_federal_funds_rate": "3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent",
"decision": "maintain the target range for the federal funds rate",
"statement_text": "The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.",
"dissenters": ["Beth M. Hammack", "Neel Kashkari", "Lorie K. Logan"],
"dissent_preference": "raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting"
},
"source": {
"tier": "A",
"title": "Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement",
"url": "[https://www.[federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm)](https://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm))",
"published_at": "2026-07-30 02:00:00+08:00",
"citation": "2"
}
},
{
"event_id": "fomc_minutes_20260616_17_last_released",
"event_type": "FOMC_MINUTES",
"title": "截至今截点最新已发布纪要仍为 6 月会议，维持 3.5-3.75%",
"event_time_utc": "2026-06-17",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-07-08T00:00:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["AU", "AG", "COMEX_GC", "COMEX_SI", "GOLD_ETF"],
"status": "last_released_record_no_new_minutes_confirmed_by_cutoff",
"confidence": 20,
"direction_score": {
"AU": 0,
"AG": 0,
"COMEX_GC": 0,
"COMEX_SI": 0,
"GOLD_ETF": 0
},
"horizon": "weeks",
"transmission_chain": "截止时点无更新纪要→政策路径信息增量有限→对金银价格方向中性",
"invalidation_conditions": "若 7 月会议纪要在后续发布并披露新的政策倾向，本条中性记录被新纪要替代作废",
"source_urls": ["[https://www.[federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260617.htm](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260617.htm)](https://federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260617.htm](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260617.htm))"],
"source_tier": "A",
"raw_facts": {
"meeting": "June 16–17, 2026",
"meeting_dates_note": "会议日为 2026-06-16 至 2026-06-17，精确时刻原文未披露",
"published_time_note": "原文仅披露日期",
"target_range_federal_funds_rate": "3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent",
"statement_vote": "12–0",
"statement_dissent": "None",
"interest_rate_paid_on_reserve_balances": "3.65 percent",
"primary_credit_rate": "3.75 percent",
"newer_minutes_by_cutoff": "原文未披露"
},
"source": {
"tier": "A",
"title": "Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 16-17, 2026",
"url": "[https://www.[federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260617.htm](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260617.htm)](https://federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260617.htm](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260617.htm))",
"published_at": "2026-07-08",
"citation": "3"
}
},
{
"event_id": "bea_pce_202606",
"event_type": "PCE",
"title": "6 月 PCE 环比 -0.1%、核心 PCE 环比 0.1%",
"event_time_utc": "2026-07-30T12:30:00Z",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"published_at_utc": "2026-07-30T12:30:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["AU", "AG", "COMEX_GC", "COMEX_SI", "GOLD_ETF"],
"status": "new",
"confidence": 100,
"direction_score": {
"AU": 1,
"AG": 1,
"COMEX_GC": 1,
"COMEX_SI": 1,
"GOLD_ETF": 1
},
"horizon": "days",
"transmission_chain": "PCE 环比转负、核心放缓→通胀压力缓和预期→实际利率预期下移→支撑无息资产金银",
"invalidation_conditions": "若随后公布的核心 PCE 修正大幅上修，或下月 PCE 重新加速，本事件的利多判断作废",
"source_urls": ["[https://www.[bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-june-2026](https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-june-2026)](https://bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-june-2026](https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-june-2026))"],
"source_tier": "A",
"metrics": {
"pce_price_index_monthly": {"actual": "-0.1%", "consensus": "原文未披露", "prior": "0.5%"},
"pce_price_index_yearly": {"actual": "3.7%", "consensus": "原文未披露", "prior": "原文未披露"},
"core_pce_price_index_monthly": {"actual": "0.1%", "consensus": "原文未披露", "prior": "0.3%"},
"core_pce_price_index_yearly": {"actual": "3.3%", "consensus": "原文未披露", "prior": "原文未披露"}
},
"raw_facts": [
"From the preceding month, the PCE price index for June decreased 0.1 percent.",
"Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent.",
"From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for June increased 3.7 percent.",
"Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.3 percent from one year ago.",
"The preceding-month table reports May 0.5 for the PCE price index and May 0.3 for the PCE price index excluding food and energy."
],
"source": {
"tier": "A",
"title": "Personal Income and Outlays, June 2026",
"url": "[https://www.[bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-june-2026](https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-june-2026)](https://bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-june-2026](https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-june-2026))",
"published_at": "2026-07-30 20:30:00+08:00",
"citation": "4"
}
},
{
"event_id": "bls_cpi_202606",
"event_type": "CPI",
"title": "6 月 CPI 环比 -0.4% 逊于预期，核心同比 2.6%",
"event_time_utc": "2026-07-14T12:30:00Z",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"published_at_utc": "2026-07-14T12:30:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["AU", "AG", "COMEX_GC", "COMEX_SI", "GOLD_ETF"],
"status": "new",
"confidence": 100,
"direction_score": {
"AU": 2,
"AG": 2,
"COMEX_GC": 2,
"COMEX_SI": 2,
"GOLD_ETF": 2
},
"horizon": "days",
"transmission_chain": "CPI 全面低于共识→紧缩预期降温→实际利率预期下移→利多金银",
"invalidation_conditions": "若 BLS 大幅上修 6 月 CPI，或下月 CPI 重新显著高于共识，本事件的利多判断作废",
"source_urls": [
"[https://www.[bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_07142026.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_07142026.htm)](https://bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_07142026.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_07142026.htm))",
"[https://www.[reuters.com/business/us-consumer-inflation-likely-increased-slow-pace-june-gasoline-prices-retreated-2026-07-14/](https://www.reuters.com/business/us-consumer-inflation-likely-increased-slow-pace-june-gasoline-prices-retreated-2026-07-14/)](https://reuters.com/business/us-consumer-inflation-likely-increased-slow-pace-june-gasoline-prices-retreated-2026-07-14/](https://www.reuters.com/business/us-consumer-inflation-likely-increased-slow-pace-june-gasoline-prices-retreated-2026-07-14/))"
],
"source_tier": "A",
"metrics": {
"headline_cpi_monthly": {"actual": "-0.4%", "consensus": "-0.1%", "prior": "0.5%"},
"headline_cpi_yearly": {"actual": "3.5%", "consensus": "3.8%", "prior": "4.2%"},
"core_cpi_monthly": {"actual": "0.0%", "consensus": "0.2%", "prior": "0.2%"},
"core_cpi_yearly": {"actual": "2.6%", "consensus": "2.8%", "prior": "2.9%"}
},
"raw_facts": [
"CPI-U, seasonally adjusted, June 2026: -0.4 percent; May 2026: 0.5 percent.",
"CPI-U, 12 months ending June 2026: 3.5 percent; May 2026: 4.2 percent.",
"Core CPI-U, seasonally adjusted, June 2026: 0.0 percent; May 2026: 0.2 percent.",
"Core CPI-U, 12 months ending June 2026: 2.6 percent; May 2026: 2.9 percent.",
"Reuters survey consensus: headline CPI 3.8 percent year-on-year, core CPI 2.8 percent year-on-year, headline CPI -0.1 percent month-on-month, core CPI 0.2 percent month-on-month."
],
"sources": [
{
"tier": "A",
"title": "Consumer Price Index News Release - 2026 M06 Results",
"url": "[https://www.[bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_07142026.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_07142026.htm)](https://bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_07142026.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_07142026.htm))",
"published_at": "2026-07-14 20:30:00+08:00",
"citation": "5"
},
{
"tier": "B",
"title": "US consumer inflation likely increased at a slow pace in June",
"url": "[https://www.[reuters.com/business/us-consumer-inflation-likely-increased-slow-pace-june-gasoline-prices-retreated-2026-07-14/](https://www.reuters.com/business/us-consumer-inflation-likely-increased-slow-pace-june-gasoline-prices-retreated-2026-07-14/)](https://reuters.com/business/us-consumer-inflation-likely-increased-slow-pace-june-gasoline-prices-retreated-2026-07-14/](https://www.reuters.com/business/us-consumer-inflation-likely-increased-slow-pace-june-gasoline-prices-retreated-2026-07-14/))",
"published_at": "2026-07-14 20:40:00+08:00",
"citation": "6"
}
]
},
{
"event_id": "bls_nonfarm_payrolls_202606",
"event_type": "NONFARM_PAYROLLS",
"title": "6 月非农仅增 5.7 万，远低于预期 11 万",
"event_time_utc": "2026-07-02T12:30:00Z",
"event_time_quality": "exact",
"published_at_utc": "2026-07-02T12:30:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["AU", "AG", "COMEX_GC", "COMEX_SI", "GOLD_ETF"],
"status": "new",
"confidence": 100,
"direction_score": {
"AU": 2,
"AG": 2,
"COMEX_GC": 2,
"COMEX_SI": 2,
"GOLD_ETF": 2
},
"horizon": "days",
"transmission_chain": "非农大幅低于共识且前值下修→增长与就业放缓预期→降息/宽松预期升温→利多金银",
"invalidation_conditions": "若随后非农大幅上修至接近或超过原共识，或下月非农显著反弹超预期，本事件的利多判断作废",
"source_urls": [
"[https://www.[bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_07022026.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_07022026.htm)](https://bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_07022026.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_07022026.htm))",
"[https://www.[reuters.com/business/view-job-growth-falls-short-expectations-june-2026-07-02/](https://www.reuters.com/business/view-job-growth-falls-short-expectations-june-2026-07-02/)](https://reuters.com/business/view-job-growth-falls-short-expectations-june-2026-07-02/](https://www.reuters.com/business/view-job-growth-falls-short-expectations-june-2026-07-02/))"
],
"source_tier": "A",
"metrics": {
"total_nonfarm_payroll_employment_change": {"actual": "+57,000", "consensus": "+110,000", "prior": "+129,000"},
"unemployment_rate": {"actual": "4.2%", "consensus": "原文未披露", "prior": "原文未披露"}
},
"raw_facts": [
"June 2026 total nonfarm payroll employment change: +57,000.",
"May 2026 revised change: +129,000, revised down from +172,000.",
"April 2026 revised change: +148,000, revised down from +179,000.",
"Unemployment rate in June 2026: 4.2 percent.",
"Reuters consensus forecast for June 2026 nonfarm payrolls: 110,000."
],
"sources": [
{
"tier": "A",
"title": "Employment Situation News Release - 2026 M06 Results",
"url": "[https://www.[bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_07022026.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_07022026.htm)](https://bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_07022026.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_07022026.htm))",
"published_at": "2026-07-02 20:30:00+08:00",
"citation": "7"
},
{
"tier": "B",
"title": "VIEW Job growth falls short of expectations in June",
"url": "[https://www.[reuters.com/business/view-job-growth-falls-short-expectations-june-2026-07-02/](https://www.reuters.com/business/view-job-growth-falls-short-expectations-june-2026-07-02/)](https://reuters.com/business/view-job-growth-falls-short-expectations-june-2026-07-02/](https://www.reuters.com/business/view-job-growth-falls-short-expectations-june-2026-07-02/))",
"published_at": "2026-07-02 21:04:50+08:00",
"citation": "8"
}
]
},
{
"event_id": "sge_warehouse_inventory_20260727_31_silver",
"event_type": "SGE_WEEKLY_WAREHOUSE_INVENTORY",
"title": "上金所白银库存周减 131,760 公斤至 798,345 公斤",
"event_time_utc": "2026-07-31",
"event_time_quality": "day_only",
"published_at_utc": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
"asset_keys": ["AG", "COMEX_SI"],
"status": "new",
"confidence": 100,
"direction_score": {
"AG": 2,
"COMEX_SI": 1
},
"horizon": "days",
"transmission_chain": "上金所白银库存显著下降→国内可交割实物供给收紧→支撑沪银并外溢 COMEX 白银",
"invalidation_conditions": "若下一期上金所周报显示白银库存大幅回升抹去本周降幅，本事件的利多判断作废",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/hqzb/10007491",
"https://www.sge.com.cn/upload/file/202608/04/b0d348a3730444f3830a209839c0a509.pdf"
],
"source_tier": "A",
"metrics": {
"silver_warehouse_inventory_kg": {"actual": "798,345.00", "prior": "930,105.00", "change": "-131,760.00"},
"gold_warehouse_inventory_kg": "原文未披露"
},
"raw_facts": [
"The Shanghai Gold Exchange designated-warehouse inventory weekly report is denominated in kilograms.",
"Silver: previous inventory 930,105.00; weekly change -131,760.00; current inventory 798,345.00.",
"published_time_note: 原文仅披露日期",
"coverage_window_note: 周报覆盖 2026-07-27 至 2026-07-31，精确事件时刻原文未披露"
],
"source": {
"tier": "A",
"title": "上海黄金交易所 2026 年第 29 期行情周报",
"url": "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/hqzb/10007491",
"data_url": "https://www.sge.com.cn/upload/file/202608/04/b0d348a3730444f3830a209839c0a509.pdf",
"published_at": "2026-08-04",
"citation": "9"
}
}
]
}
References
- 1
- 2Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
federalreserve.gov
- 3Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 16-17, 2026
federalreserve.gov
- 4
- 5
- 6
- 7
- 8
- 9上海黄金交易所2026年第29期行情周报
sge.com.cn
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