Five stops fail in one session; twelve of forty-four setups are past invalidation

Prices are the regular-session closes of Thursday 22 October 2026: 4:00 p.m. in New York and Toronto, 4:37 p.m. in London for Fresnillo. The levels come from a screen captured on 16 October that carries 44 rows, drawn with a support, an invalidation, a resistance and a target. A close under a long setup's invalidation marks that setup failed; a close back over it restores the setup.

Seven of the rows are shorts. The same levels read in reverse on them: price under the support means the trade is working, a close back over that support stalls it, a close under the target fills it, and a close over the invalidation would fail it.

Thirteen rows changed state at this close, twelve of them by closing through a published level.

Five long setups closed under their invalidation: ARM, SILJ, RIO, BKR and Fresnillo, ARM's for the second time in three sessions. Twelve rows now sit past invalidation, up from seven; the count has run eight, seven and twelve across the last three closes, on 20, 21 and 22 October.

Five more lost support with their invalidation intact: AU, TFPM, AMZN, SYM and DBA. The thirteenth, OR, closed at 33.33, within 2% of its 32.80 support and 12.99% clear of its 29.00 invalidation.

Six setups had a level to hold at this close, and all six closed through it. On Wednesday ARM's 224.90 invalidation sat 0.75% under the close, BKR's 55.00 invalidation 1.8% under, SYM's 40.50 support 2.95% under and RIO's 86.69 invalidation 0.27% under. AU and DBA were within 2% of their support.

Twelve of the thirteen moved against their setups. FLEX is the only one that improved.

The selling reached past these names. All 20 commodity rows that carry a price closed lower; the 19 miners and metals funds among them fell by a median of 5.63%, and 11 fell more than 5%.

Level distances are the level as a percentage of Thursday's close: a plus sign puts the level over the close, a minus sign under it. The rows are ordered by severity, failed invalidations first and the deepest past its level first, then the support breaks the same way, then the two short-side changes. A break deeper past its level is the harder one to undo. Where a row reads none published, the screen lists no level on that side.

ARM closed at 210.10, down 7.28%, which leaves it 7.04% under the 224.90 invalidation 1. It opened at 217.07 and its high of 217.97 never reached the level, so the whole session sat below that level.

This is the second failure of that level in three sessions. Tuesday's 221.06 was the first, Wednesday's 226.59 restored the setup, and Thursday's close ended it again.

The screen was captured with ARM at 244.79, already under its 260.00 support. That support now sits 23.75% above the close, resistance at 360.00 sits 71.35% above it, and nothing is published below 224.90.

SILJ closed at 23.65, down 7.04%, 5.50% under its 24.95 invalidation 2. Its high of 24.44 stayed under the level for the whole session, and its low was 23.52.

Wednesday's close of 25.44 was 2.0% above 24.95. Support at 27.85 now sits 17.76% above the close, with nothing published below the invalidation.

RIO closed at 84.14, down 3.20%, 3.03% under its 86.69 invalidation 3. It opened at 84.92 and its 84.95 high also stayed under the level.

Wednesday the close held 0.3% above 86.69. The 93.91 support sits 11.61% above Thursday's close, and the screen publishes no level below the invalidation.

BKR closed at 53.62, down 4.25%, under both its 55.90 support and its 55.00 invalidation 4. It opened at 55.77 and traded up to 56.02, above support, before a 52.60 low and a close 2.57% under the invalidation.

Both levels were intact at Wednesday's close, when BKR finished 0.18% above 55.90. Support sits 4.25% above the close and nothing is published below 55.00.

Fresnillo closed at 2,462p, down 6.46%, 1.54% under its 2,500p invalidation 5. It opened at 2,547p, reached 2,572p and closed on its session low.

The row was priced for the first time on 19 October, already under its 2,816.90p support. Thursday is its first close under the invalidation, and that support now sits 14.42% above the close.

AU closed at 85.19, down 6.89%, 5.36% under its 89.76 support 6. It opened at 88.22, its session high, already below the level, and fell to 84.69.

AU had closed within 2% of its 89.76 support after each of the three previous sessions. Its 77.50 invalidation sits 9.03% under Thursday's close, the most room of these five breaks.

TFPM closed at 29.37, down 4.52%, 1.77% under its 29.89 support, after a 29.26 low 7. Its 28.00 invalidation sits 4.66% below the close.

AMZN closed at 250.38, down 4.57%, 0.65% under its 252.00 support 8. It opened at 258.13, 2.4% over support, reached 258.36, then fell to 248.06 before closing.

The 246.00 invalidation sits 1.75% under the close, nearer than for any of the other four support breaks.

SYM closed at 40.36, down 3.28%, 0.35% under its 40.50 support 9. It traded between 39.67 and 41.18 and finished just under the level.

Wednesday's close was back above 40.50; this one is under it. The 37.60 invalidation sits 6.84% under Thursday's close.

DBA closed at 27.92, down 0.71%, 0.29% under its 28.00 support 10. The session ran from 27.90 to 28.02, so the level was crossed in both directions.

DBA had also spent the three previous sessions within 2% of 28.00. Its 27.05 invalidation sits 3.12% under the close.

BOOT closed at 119.76, up 3.16%, back above the 117.64 support its short was working under 11. At that close the setup has stopped working, with price within 2% of the level.

Wednesday's close was 1.3% under the support. The 112.48 target now sits 6.08% below the close.

FLEX closed at 76.69, down 11.08%, 4.32% below the 80.00 target its short was published with 12. The session ran from 83.19 down to 76.21.

The screen publishes nothing below 80.00, so the trade has no further objective. Resistance at 95.00 sits 23.88% above the close.

Three working shorts fell hard without crossing a level. LRCX closed at 230.15, down 11.76% 13; AMAT at 375.58, down 8.16% 14; BE at 217.77, down 8.70% 15. Their targets sit 14.40%, 10.01% and 38.01% below those closes.

OceanaGold closed at 35.37 CAD, down 5.63% 16. Its 35.25 invalidation sits 0.34% below the close, the tightest gap between a live long and its invalidation on the list.

The row has been under its 38.23 support since 19 October, and Thursday's close brought it to the edge of failing.

AG closed at 15.12, down 6.03%, with its 15.00 invalidation 0.79% under the close 17. It has sat under its 17.75 support at every close so far.

IMPUY is the third. Its last print before the close was 10.55, which leaves its 10.45 invalidation 0.95% below, though its quote page was still showing a 2:15 p.m. snapshot of 10.52 rather than a closing price 18.

Past those three the distance to an invalidation widens: AMZN at 1.75%, DBA at 3.12% and TFPM at 4.66%. Each needs one ordinary session to fail.

UAL is the closest of the twelve failed setups to recovering. It closed at 102.00, 2.45% under the 104.50 invalidation it has been below at every close 19.

Seven rows were past invalidation at Wednesday's close and still are: REMX, HL, WRN, MUX, UAL, GDXJ and MP.

The longs under support with their invalidation intact, unchanged at this close: AG, IMPUY, OGC, SBSW, AGI and UROY.

Eight rows are clear of support. EOG is the closest long to a target, with 3.44% of room to its 163.40 20.

Four shorts are working: BE, HROW, AMAT and LRCX.

CIGO and PLE return no quote from the price feed. HGE returns a zero-filled record, which is missing data rather than a price of zero. None of the three has carried a price since this list began.

CVX closed at 226.68 against levels running from 43.65 to 80.00, while the screen's own price column reads 61.68 for that row 21. The row stays unscored.

The E row's long setup is the fifth. Its levels run from 9.00 to 54.60, which match no live Ford price. The E ticker fills two of the screen's rows, one long and one short, which is how 43 tickers make 44 rows.

Ford closed at 11.94, 2.18% under the 12.20 target, its third close below it. The target counts as filled for as long as closes hold under 12.20 22. NYSE ticker E is Eni, at 59.53, which matches neither row's levels.

Six days separate the 16 October screen from this close, and no level on the list has been refreshed since. This list treats a level as stale once the screen behind it is thirty days old, which lands on 15 November.

OceanaGold's 35.25 invalidation sits 0.34% under the close, AG's 15.00 0.79% under and IMPUY's 10.45 0.95% under. Below them sit AMZN's 246.00 invalidation at 1.75% under the close, DBA's 27.05 at 3.12% and SYM's 37.60 at 6.84%.

To undo their failures, ARM needs a 7.04% gain to close back over 224.90, SILJ 5.50% to retake 24.95, RIO 3.03% for 86.69, BKR 2.57% for 55.00 and Fresnillo 1.54% for 2,500p.

BOOT's short needs a close back under 117.64. FLEX stays past its target while closes hold under 80.00, and Ford's run past 12.20 holds while closes stay under it; that level sits 2.18% above Thursday's close.