2026-08-12 09:30|油运受阻,美元等待通胀数据

2026-08-12 09:30|油运受阻,美元等待通胀数据

覆盖北京时间2026年8月12日01:30至09:30,记录中东供给预测、霍尔木兹油运与美元及联储9月政策概率三条新增事实,并单列ETF、库存、仓单和实际收益率核验缺口。

{ "schema_version": 1, "as_of": "2026-08-12 09:30:00+08:00", "window_start_utc": "2026-08-11T17:30:00Z", "window_end_utc": "2026-08-12T01:30:00Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "events": [ { "event_id": "reuters-AUAG-20260811-middle-east-supply-forecast", "event_type": "supply_demand", "title": "EIA 预计中东约 600000 桶日供给将停至 2027 年底", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T18:28:12.185Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-11T18:28:12.185Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "status": "new", "confidence": 96, "direction_score": {"AU": 1, "AG": 0}, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "source_page_published_at_utc": "2026-08-11T18:28:12.185Z", "source_page_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-11T18:28:24.387Z", "middle_east_output_shut_in_july_bpd": 5500000, "middle_east_output_shut_in_july_description": "约 550 万桶/日,占全球消费量超过 5%", "hormuz_flow_assumption": "2026 年 8 月流量严重受限,2026 年 9 月开始缓慢增加", "output_shut_in_through_end_2027_bpd": 600000, "global_oil_output_2026_bpd": 100800000, "global_oil_demand_2026_bpd": 104000000, "brent_2026_average_usd_per_barrel": 86.81, "wti_2026_average_usd_per_barrel": 80.88, "prior_forecast_brent": "2026 年均价低于 82 美元/桶", "prior_forecast_wti": "2026 年均价略高于 76 美元/桶", "source_context": "Reuters 转述美国能源信息署 8 月短期能源展望:即使中东产量和全球贸易在 2027 年初大体恢复,约 600000 桶/日的地区产量仍将停产至 2027 年底。" }, "transmission_chain": "中东供给停产和霍尔木兹受限期被拉长→能源通胀与地缘风险预期维持→AU 获得避险支撑、AG 方向混合", "invalidation_conditions": "后续官方数据确认中东停产规模明显低于 5500000 桶/日且霍尔木兹运输在 2026 年 8 月快速恢复时,本次供给风险更新失效", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/business/energy/some-middle-east-oil-output-will-stay-shut-through-next-year-us-eia-says-2026-08-11/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/some-middle-east-oil-output-will-stay-shut-through-next-year-us-eia-says-2026-08-11/)](https://reuters.com/business/energy/some-middle-east-oil-output-will-stay-shut-through-next-year-us-eia-says-2026-08-11/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/some-middle-east-oil-output-will-stay-shut-through-next-year-us-eia-says-2026-08-11/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "reuters-AUAG-20260812-hormuz-oil-snapshot", "event_type": "geopolitics", "title": "布伦特报 89.63 美元,霍尔木兹通行降至 6 艘", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T00:58:10.529Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-12T00:53:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "status": "new", "confidence": 97, "direction_score": {"AU": 1, "AG": 0}, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_page_published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T00:58:10.529Z", "source_page_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-12T00:59:47.792Z", "snapshot_time_utc": "2026-08-12T00:53:00Z", "brent": {"price_usd_per_barrel": 89.63, "change_usd": 0.72, "change_percent": 0.81}, "wti": {"price_usd_per_barrel": 83.91, "change_usd": 0.71, "change_percent": 0.85}, "hormuz_traffic_vessels": 6, "hormuz_traffic_10_day_average_vessels": 11, "hormuz_traffic_prewar_daily_average_vessels": "125-140", "source_context": "Reuters 称,0053 GMT 布伦特涨 0.72 美元或 0.81%至 89.63 美元/桶,WTI 涨 0.71 美元或 0.85%至 83.91 美元/桶;周一霍尔木兹通行量为 6 艘,10 日均值约 11 艘。" }, "transmission_chain": "霍尔木兹通行量低于 10 日均值且油价上行→能源供给中断与通胀风险的短线定价升温→AU 避险方向偏强、AG 方向中性", "invalidation_conditions": "后续确认霍尔木兹通行恢复并使布伦特跌破 89.63 美元/桶时,本次短线地缘传导失效", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-doubts-over-us-iran-deal-heighten-supply-concerns-2026-08-12/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-doubts-over-us-iran-deal-heighten-supply-concerns-2026-08-12/)](https://reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-doubts-over-us-iran-deal-heighten-supply-concerns-2026-08-12/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-doubts-over-us-iran-deal-heighten-supply-concerns-2026-08-12/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "reuters-AUAG-20260812-dollar-fedwatch", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "美元横盘,联储 9 月加息概率报 48%", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T00:57:27.831Z", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "status": "new", "confidence": 94, "direction_score": {"AU": 0, "AG": 0}, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_page_published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T00:57:27.831Z", "source_page_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-12T01:12:09.964Z", "event_date": "2026-08-12", "snapshot_context": "亚洲时段开盘,市场等待美国通胀数据", "usd_jpy": 159.275, "eur_usd": 1.1542, "gbp_usd": 1.3508, "aud_usd": 0.7064, "nzd_usd": 0.5879, "brent_snapshot": {"price_usd_per_barrel": 89.40, "change_percent": 0.6}, "fed_funds_futures": {"september_hold_percent": 52, "september_25bp_hike_percent": 48}, "source_context": "Reuters 称美元在亚洲时段开盘横盘;联邦基金期货显示 9 月 16 日结束的会议维持利率概率为 52%,加息 25 个基点概率为 48%。" }, "transmission_chain": "美元缺乏新方向且 9 月政策概率接近二分→无息贵金属机会成本没有确认性变化→AU、AG 短线方向中性", "invalidation_conditions": "后续美国通胀数据使美元和 9 月联储政策概率明显单边重定价时,本次中性状态失效", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/business/dollar-subdued-markets-await-us-inflation-data-fed-clues-2026-08-12/](https://www.reuters.com/business/dollar-subdued-markets-await-us-inflation-data-fed-clues-2026-08-12/)](https://reuters.com/business/dollar-subdued-markets-await-us-inflation-data-fed-clues-2026-08-12/](https://www.reuters.com/business/dollar-subdued-markets-await-us-inflation-data-fed-clues-2026-08-12/))"], "source_tier": "B" } ], "coverage_gaps": [ { "scope": "GLD/SLV 每日持仓变动", "status": "unverified", "reason": "本轮改走 SPDR Gold Shares 官方持仓页与 iShares SLV 产品页的定向检索,并复查 Reuters 窗口检索,未取得窗口内可核验的 GLD 或 SLV 逐日持仓数字,因此未将月度或非窗口数据代入事件流。", "source_urls": [] }, { "scope": "COMEX 金银库存分级与 SHFE AU/AG 仓单", "status": "unverified", "reason": "本轮改走 CME 官方公告检索;页面仅返回公告列表,未提供窗口内 COMEX 金银库存分级数字。SHFE 官方仓单日报入口仍返回人机识别页,未以入口壳、搜索摘要或无关公告代替仓单数字。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[cmegroup.com/notices.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/notices.html)](https://cmegroup.com/notices.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/notices.html))", "https://www.shfe.com.cn/reports/tradedata/dailyandweeklydata/?query_params=dailystock"] }, { "scope": "SGE 出入库与库存周频数据", "status": "unverified", "reason": "本轮改走上海黄金交易所 2026-08-11 每日行情明细页,获得交易报价但未获得出入库或库存周报数字;该页面也未提供可证明其发布时间落入本窗口的时间戳,故不把日行情行误当作窗口内出入库事件。", "source_urls": ["https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/quotation_daily_new?start_date=2026-08-11&end_date=2026-08-11"] }, { "scope": "美国财政部实际收益率日值", "status": "unverified", "reason": "美国财政部页面返回 2026-08-11 的 5Y/7Y/10Y/20Y/30Y 实际收益率为 2.16%/2.28%/2.43%/2.79%/3.00%,但页面没有单独的发布时间;无法在不猜测发布时间的前提下把该日值纳入本窗口事件。", "source_urls": ["[https://home.[treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026)](https://treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026))"] } ] }

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