Geopolitics Daily Brief — August 26, 2026: Moonshot cloud talks, Hormuz corridor and diesel ban

1. Moonshot seeks U.S. cloud revenue share for Kimi K3

• China's Moonshot AI is negotiating revenue-sharing deals with Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet's Google that would let the three U.S. cloud platforms host its open-weight Kimi K3 model, three people familiar with the talks told Reuters. 1
• Moonshot is seeking up to a 30% share of revenue from K3-related services on Azure, Amazon Web Services, and Google Cloud; the talks are early-stage and may not produce agreements. 1
• Unresolved issues include revenue splits, data access, and token-usage audits; Microsoft, Google, and AWS declined to comment, and Moonshot did not respond. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last month he might add Moonshot to a trade blacklist, and U.S. officials have accused the company of stealing from Anthropic's Fable model and illegally acquiring Nvidia chips — claims Moonshot has rejected. 1

2. Lynas expands rare-earth supply plans outside China

• Australia's Lynas Rare Earths said it is in talks with project developers of ionic clay deposits worldwide for new mine supply and expects to announce deals soon, interim CEO Pol Le Roux said after annual results. 2
• Lynas is also in early-stage talks to develop a magnet-making facility in the United States. 2
• Net profit after tax rose to A$222.4 million ($159.37 million) for the year ended June 30 from A$8 million a year earlier, missing a Visible Alpha consensus of A$242.5 million; average selling price rose 59% to A$80.7 per kilogram. China accounts for some 90% of global rare-earth product output, including magnets, and a one-year suspension of Chinese export controls on several medium and heavy rare earths expires in November. 2

3. Russia moves to keep diesel export ban into September

• Russia is set to extend its diesel export ban through September as domestic fuel shortages persist and some refineries remain idle after Ukrainian drone attacks, three industry sources told Reuters. 3
• One source said an extension until year-end is also under discussion; Russia's Energy Ministry did not respond to a request for comment. 3
• The producer diesel ban, first imposed from July 8 and later prolonged to August 31, sits alongside bans on diesel exports by non-producers and on motor gasoline until January 31 next year, and on jet fuel until the end of November 2026. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said last week the government had yet to decide whether to lift the ban and that there was no diesel shortage on the domestic market. 3

4. Iran and Oman float a temporary Hormuz corridor as oil falls

• Iran and Oman said on Tuesday they discussed "a joint temporary navigational corridor" through the Strait of Hormuz and agreed to clear it of mines; Iran said it had restarted talks with Oman to manage the waterway. 4
• Brent crude fell $2.30, or 2.6%, to $86.28 a barrel by 0447 GMT on Wednesday, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell $2.08, or 2.53%, to $80.29, as traders priced in reopening hopes. 5
• Five commodity vessels transited Hormuz on Tuesday — two LPG tankers and one bitumen tanker exiting, two empty product tankers entering — below the 10-day average of 15, Kpler preliminary data showed; the strait handled about one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments before the war. UKMTO reported an oil tanker struck by an unidentified projectile about 9 nautical miles northeast of Oman's Ash Shishah on Tuesday. 46

5. Taiwan tracks six PLAN vessels and seven official Chinese ships

• Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense said it detected 6 PLAN vessels and 7 official ships operating around Taiwan up until 6 a.m. local time (UTC+8) on August 26, 2026. 7
• The ministry said Taiwan's armed forces monitored the situation and responded. 7
• The ministry said it detected no PLA aircraft operating around Taiwan in that window and therefore provided no flight-path illustration. 7