2026-09-03 22:30｜美国数据与上期所金银更新

{ "schema_version": 1, "window": { "label": "上一次运行以来", "timezone": "Asia/Shanghai", "start_local": "2026-09-03 20:30:00+08:00", "end_local": "2026-09-03 22:30:00+08:00" }, "events": [ { "event_id": "SHFE-AU-20260903-openinterest-revision-2", "event_type": "CFTC_positioning", "title": "上期所黄金小计持仓修订为 384691 手", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T14:30:00Z", "asset_keys": ["AU"], "direction_score": {"AU": 0}, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_date": "2026-09-03", "source_endpoint_date": "2026-09-03", "gold_subtotal_open_interest_lots": 384691, "gold_subtotal_open_interest_change_lots": 4384, "gold_subtotal_volume_lots": 396865, "gold_subtotal_turnover_cny_10000": 37826008, "same_day_prior_channel_record": { "open_interest_lots": 385716, "open_interest_change_lots": 5409, "volume_lots": 385297, "turnover_cny_10000": 36715325.744 }, "source_date_field_note": "返回体含旧字段 o_IMChangeDate=20150813；o_day=03、o_weekday=四及端点路径日期指向 2026-09-03，日期按端点路径与 o_day 判定；源内容未提供精确发布时间。" }, "transmission_chain": "上期所同日黄金小计持仓与成交汇总被更新→AU 期货持仓时间序列的最新观测值改变→下游模型应覆盖此前同日快照而非并列重复计数", "invalidation_conditions": "上期所随后发布同一交易日更正值时，以最新官方黄金小计汇总覆盖本事件", "source_urls": ["https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/kx20260903.dat"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "SHFE-AG-20260903-openinterest-revision-2", "event_type": "CFTC_positioning", "title": "上期所白银小计持仓修订为 545295 手", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T14:30:00Z", "asset_keys": ["AG"], "direction_score": {"AG": 0}, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_date": "2026-09-03", "source_endpoint_date": "2026-09-03", "silver_subtotal_open_interest_lots": 545295, "silver_subtotal_open_interest_change_lots": 947, "silver_subtotal_volume_lots": 829343, "silver_subtotal_turnover_cny_10000": 19884766.668, "same_day_prior_channel_record": { "open_interest_lots": 547351, "open_interest_change_lots": 3003, "volume_lots": 806981, "turnover_cny_10000": 19345024.6785 }, "source_date_field_note": "返回体含旧字段 o_IMChangeDate=20150813；o_day=03、o_weekday=四及端点路径日期指向 2026-09-03，日期按端点路径与 o_day 判定；源内容未提供精确发布时间。" }, "transmission_chain": "上期所同日白银小计持仓与成交汇总被更新→AG 期货持仓时间序列的最新观测值改变→下游模型应覆盖此前同日快照而非并列重复计数", "invalidation_conditions": "上期所随后发布同一交易日更正值时，以最新官方白银小计汇总覆盖本事件", "source_urls": ["https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/kx20260903.dat"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "SHFE-AU-20260903-warehouse-stock", "event_type": "inventory", "title": "上期所黄金仓单维持 114858 千克", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T14:30:00Z", "asset_keys": ["AU"], "direction_score": {"AU": 0}, "confidence": 98, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_date": "2026-09-03", "gold_warehouse_warrants_kg": 114858, "gold_daily_change_kg": 0, "unit": "千克", "source_time_note": "官方仓单日报显示日期为 2026-09-03，但未提供独立精确发布时间。" }, "transmission_chain": "上期所黄金仓单日变动为 0 千克→可交割黄金库存当日未增加或减少→AU 期货供给端的新增库存冲击为中性", "invalidation_conditions": "上期所随后更正 2026-09-03 仓单数量或日变动时，以最新官方日报覆盖本事件", "source_urls": ["https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260903/ZH/all.html"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "SHFE-AG-20260903-warehouse-stock", "event_type": "inventory", "title": "上期所白银仓单降至 1399935 千克", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T14:30:00Z", "asset_keys": ["AG"], "direction_score": {"AG": 1}, "confidence": 98, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_date": "2026-09-03", "silver_warehouse_warrants_kg": 1399935, "silver_daily_change_kg": -22687, "unit": "千克", "source_time_note": "官方仓单日报显示日期为 2026-09-03，但未提供独立精确发布时间。" }, "transmission_chain": "上期所白银仓单日减少 22687 千克→交易所可交割白银库存下降→AG 期货近端供给缓冲减弱，方向偏多", "invalidation_conditions": "上期所随后更正 2026-09-03 白银仓单数量或日变动时，以最新官方日报覆盖本事件", "source_urls": ["https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/stockdata/dailystock_20260903/ZH/all.html"], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260903-us-services-pmi", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "美国 8 月服务业 PMI 升至 55.4", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T14:03:05.523Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": -1, "AG": 0}, "confidence": 91, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_date": "2026-09-03", "actual": {"us_ism_nonmanufacturing_pmi": 55.4, "new_orders_index": 60.9, "prices_paid_index": 72.6, "employment_index": 47.8}, "consensus": {"us_ism_nonmanufacturing_pmi": 54.2}, "prior": {"us_ism_nonmanufacturing_pmi": 54.1, "new_orders_index": 57.2, "prices_paid_index": 70.3, "supplier_deliveries_index": 52.8}, "source_published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T14:03:05.523Z", "source_updated_at_utc": "2026-09-03T14:13:37.101Z", "source_time_note": "路透报道注明数据于 2026-09-03 公布，但未给出 ISM 发布的独立精确时刻。" }, "transmission_chain": "服务业 PMI 与新订单高于前值和预期、投入价格升至 72.6→需求与通胀黏性提高并抬升美联储加息定价→AU 承压；AG 的工业需求支撑与利率压力相互抵消", "invalidation_conditions": "后续通胀或就业数据使加息定价回落，或服务业指标被官方修订为低于本次读数时，该方向判断失效", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/business/strong-demand-boosts-us-services-sector-activity-august-2026-09-03/](https://www.reuters.com/business/strong-demand-boosts-us-services-sector-activity-august-2026-09-03/)](https://reuters.com/business/strong-demand-boosts-us-services-sector-activity-august-2026-09-03/](https://www.reuters.com/business/strong-demand-boosts-us-services-sector-activity-august-2026-09-03/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260903-us-initial-claims", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "美国初请失业金升至 20.6 万", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T12:40:31.821Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": -1, "AG": -1}, "confidence": 90, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_date": "2026-09-03", "actual": {"initial_claims_seasonally_adjusted": 206000, "week_ended": "2026-08-29", "continued_claims_seasonally_adjusted": 1779000, "continued_claims_week_ended": "2026-08-22"}, "consensus": {"initial_claims": 205000}, "prior": {"initial_claims_seasonally_adjusted": 204000}, "source_published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T12:40:31.821Z", "source_updated_at_utc": "2026-09-03T12:49:18.538Z", "source_time_note": "路透报道注明数据于 2026-09-03 公布，但未给出美国劳工部发布的独立精确时刻。" }, "transmission_chain": "初请失业金较前周增加 2000 人且略高于预期，但仍处年度 189000—230000 区间低端→劳动力市场未出现明显恶化→市场仍保留本月加息定价，AU 与 AG 短线承压", "invalidation_conditions": "后续就业数据确认劳动力市场明显恶化并压低加息定价，或劳工部修订本次初请数据时，该方向判断失效", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/business/world-at-work/us-weekly-jobless-claims-rise-marginally-amid-stable-labor-market-2026-09-03/](https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/us-weekly-jobless-claims-rise-marginally-amid-stable-labor-market-2026-09-03/)](https://reuters.com/business/world-at-work/us-weekly-jobless-claims-rise-marginally-amid-stable-labor-market-2026-09-03/](https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/us-weekly-jobless-claims-rise-marginally-amid-stable-labor-market-2026-09-03/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260903-us-trade-deficit", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "美国 7 月贸易逆差扩大至 886 亿美元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T13:51:44.975Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": 0, "AG": 0}, "confidence": 89, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_date": "2026-09-03", "actual": {"us_trade_deficit_usd_bn": 88.6, "imports_usd_bn": 399.3, "goods_imports_usd_bn": 320.6, "capital_goods_imports_usd_bn": 140.3, "exports_usd_bn": 310.7, "goods_trade_deficit_usd_bn": 119.6, "real_goods_trade_deficit_usd_bn": 106.4}, "consensus": {"us_trade_deficit_usd_bn": 90.0}, "prior": {"us_trade_deficit_usd_bn": null, "reported_change_pct": 24.4, "prior_level_note": "来源报告逆差较前值扩大 24.4%，但未给出前值美元金额。"}, "source_published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T13:51:44.975Z", "source_updated_at_utc": "2026-09-03T13:53:24.989Z", "source_time_note": "路透报道注明数据于 2026-09-03 公布，但未给出美国商务部下属机构发布的独立精确时刻。" }, "transmission_chain": "7 月贸易逆差扩大 24.4%至 886 亿美元且低于 90.0 亿美元预期→进口驱动的贸易拖累与强劲内需信号同时存在→对 AU、AG 的增长与利率方向形成混合而非单向冲击", "invalidation_conditions": "美国商务部或人口普查局修订 7 月贸易数据，或后续 GDP 修订改变贸易对增长的贡献时，该事件的当前传导判断失效", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/business/us-trade-deficit-widens-july-capital-goods-imports-hit-record-high-2026-09-03/](https://www.reuters.com/business/us-trade-deficit-widens-july-capital-goods-imports-hit-record-high-2026-09-03/)](https://reuters.com/business/us-trade-deficit-widens-july-capital-goods-imports-hit-record-high-2026-09-03/](https://www.reuters.com/business/us-trade-deficit-widens-july-capital-goods-imports-hit-record-high-2026-09-03/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260903-waller-rate-hold", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "沃勒称若通胀降温可支持 9 月按兵不动", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T10:02:39.677Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": 1, "AG": 1}, "confidence": 83, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_date": "2026-09-03", "statement": "美联储理事 Christopher Waller 表示，如果数据显示价格压力降温，他愿意支持本月维持政策利率不变；若通胀压力持续，借款成本可能需要上升。", "september_hike_probability_after_statement_pct": 48, "source_published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T10:02:39.677Z", "source_updated_at_utc": "2026-09-03T14:00:50.638Z", "admission_basis": "原稿发布时间早于窗口，但路透页面在 2026-09-03T14:00:50.638Z 于窗口内更新；本事件按该更新纳入。", "source_time_note": "讲话具体时刻未在路透报道中给出，事件时间按 2026-09-03 日级处理。" }, "transmission_chain": "美联储官员为通胀降温条件下的 9 月利率按兵不动留下明确空间→加息预期与实际利率上行压力边际减弱→AU、AG 获得短线利多", "invalidation_conditions": "8 月通胀数据高于预期或后续美联储官员明确转向加息时，该政策表述的利多传导失效", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-subdued-investors-weigh-earnings-oil-prices-2026-09-03/](https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-subdued-investors-weigh-earnings-oil-prices-2026-09-03/)](https://reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-subdued-investors-weigh-earnings-oil-prices-2026-09-03/](https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-subdued-investors-weigh-earnings-oil-prices-2026-09-03/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AUAG-20260903-r-star-update", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "纽约联储模型 R-star 二季度为 1.65%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T10:02:01.574Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": -1, "AG": -1}, "confidence": 78, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "source_date": "2026-09-03", "actual": {"ny_fed_laubach_williams_r_star_q2_2026_pct": 1.65}, "consensus": {"ny_fed_laubach_williams_r_star_pct": null, "consensus_note": "来源未提供市场共识值。"}, "prior": {"ny_fed_laubach_williams_r_star_q1_2026_pct": 1.73, "ny_fed_laubach_williams_r_star_q1_2025_pct": 1.36}, "source_published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T10:02:01.574Z", "source_updated_at_utc": "2026-09-03T14:04:41.161Z", "admission_basis": "原稿发布时间早于窗口，但路透页面在 2026-09-03T14:04:41.161Z 于窗口内更新；本事件按该更新纳入。", "source_time_note": "路透报道未给出纽约联储更新估计的独立发布日期与精确时刻；数据覆盖至 2026 年第二季度。" }, "transmission_chain": "模型估计 R-star 虽较 2026 年一季度的 1.73%降至 1.65%，但仍高于 2025 年一季度的 1.36%，且市场参与者认为资本需求可能抬高中性利率→更高的结构性实际利率与更久的高利率风险→AU、AG 中期承压", "invalidation_conditions": "纽约联储模型后续修订，或 AI 投资与政府借款放缓使市场不再预期中性利率结构性偏高时，该中期传导失效", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/bond-selloff-is-likely-amplified-by-obscure-economic-rate-2026-09-03/](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/bond-selloff-is-likely-amplified-by-obscure-economic-rate-2026-09-03/)](https://reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/bond-selloff-is-likely-amplified-by-obscure-economic-rate-2026-09-03/](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/bond-selloff-is-likely-amplified-by-obscure-economic-rate-2026-09-03/))"], "source_tier": "B" } ], "coverage_gaps": [ { "gap_id": "GLD-daily-change", "requirement": "硬性覆盖：GLD/SLV 持仓每日变动", "status": "unverified_in_window", "summary": "本轮改用 SPDR Gold Shares 官方 Historical Archive 核对日度行，最新可比记录到 2026-09-02、黄金持仓 33971372.56 troy ounces，未返回 2026-09-03 行，因此未构造 9 月 3 日日变动。", "attempted_routes": ["[https://api.[spdrgoldshares.com/api/v1/historical-archive?product=gld&exchange=NYSE&lang=en](https://api.spdrgoldshares.com/api/v1/historical-archive?product=gld&exchange=NYSE&lang=en)](https://spdrgoldshares.com/api/v1/historical-archive?product=gld&exchange=NYSE&lang=en](https://api.spdrgoldshares.com/api/v1/historical-archive?product=gld&exchange=NYSE&lang=en))"] }, { "gap_id": "SLV-daily-change", "requirement": "硬性覆盖：GLD/SLV 持仓每日变动", "status": "unverified_in_window", "summary": "本轮改查 iShares/BlackRock 官方历史下载路径，未取得可用于 2026-09-03 与前一日比较的可核验 SLV 日度记录；未以不可核验转述替代。", "attempted_routes": ["[https://www.[blackrock.com/varnish-api/blk-one01-product-data/product-data/api/v1/get-fund-document?appType=PRODUCT_PAGE&appSubType=ISHARES&targetSite=us-ishares&locale=en_US&portfolioId=239855&component=fundDownload&userType=individual](https://www.blackrock.com/varnish-api/blk-one01-product-data/product-data/api/v1/get-fund-document?appType=PRODUCT_PAGE&appSubType=ISHARES&targetSite=us-ishares&locale=en_US&portfolioId=239855&component=fundDownload&userType=individual)](https://blackrock.com/varnish-api/blk-one01-product-data/product-data/api/v1/get-fund-document?appType=PRODUCT_PAGE&appSubType=ISHARES&targetSite=us-ishares&locale=en_US&portfolioId=239855&component=fundDownload&userType=individual](https://www.blackrock.com/varnish-api/blk-one01-product-data/product-data/api/v1/get-fund-document?appType=PRODUCT_PAGE&appSubType=ISHARES&targetSite=us-ishares&locale=en_US&portfolioId=239855&component=fundDownload&userType=individual))"] }, { "gap_id": "SGE-weekly-inventory-flow", "requirement": "硬性覆盖：SGE 出入库（周频）", "status": "stale_source", "summary": "本轮检查上金所行情周报索引及最新详情，最新仍为 2026 年第 33 期，发布日期 2026-08-31、覆盖 2026-08-24 至 2026-08-28；未取得本窗口新的出入库数字。", "attempted_routes": ["https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/hqzb", "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/hqzb/10007537"] }, { "gap_id": "COMEX-registered-eligible", "requirement": "硬性覆盖：COMEX 金银库存分级变动", "status": "unverified_in_window", "summary": "本轮改查 CME Registrar Reports 的官方 HTML 入口及其 Gold Stocks、Silver Stocks 下载路径，页面仅提供入口且未展示窗口内 registered 与 eligible 数值；未以不可核验转述替代。", "attempted_routes": ["[https://www.[cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html)](https://cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html))", "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls)](https://cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Gold_Stocks.xls))", "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls)](https://cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls](https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls))"] } ] }