2026-09-04 01:30｜路透更新金银报价，上期所金银持仓增加

{ "schema_version": 1, "window": { "label": "上一次运行以来", "timezone": "Asia/Shanghai", "start_local": "2026-09-04 00:30:00+08:00", "end_local": "2026-09-04 01:30:00+08:00" }, "events": [ { "event_id": "Reuters-AU-20260903-spot-gold-update", "event_type": "supply_demand", "title": "路透更新：现货黄金涨 2.4%至 4491.55 美元", "event_time_utc": "2026-09-03T16:35:24.402Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T02:41:46.618Z", "asset_keys": ["AU"], "direction_score": {"AU": 2}, "confidence": 91, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T02:41:46.618Z", "source_updated_at_utc": "2026-09-03T16:35:24.402Z", "admission_reason": "页面更新时间落入本窗口；此前同一页面的早盘报价已在上一期覆盖", "quote_time_gmt": "2026-09-03 16:18 GMT", "spot_gold_usd_per_troy_ounce": 4491.55, "spot_gold_change_pct": 2.4, "us_gold_futures_usd_per_troy_ounce": 4539.20, "us_gold_futures_change_pct": 2.8, "september_rate_hike_pricing_pct": 54, "previous_september_rate_hike_pricing_pct": 62, "reported_context": "路透报道，Waller 表示若后续数据确认通胀压力降温，他倾向支持下次会议维持利率不变" }, "transmission_chain": "Waller 关于通胀降温后维持利率不变的表态→9 月加息定价从约 62%降至约 54%→美元与收益率承压时美元计价黄金上涨", "invalidation_conditions": "后续美国数据或利率定价重新推高美元与收益率，并抹去该报价涨幅时，事件的短线方向信号失效", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-dollar-yields-ease-with-us-nonfarm-payrolls-report-spotlight-2026-09-03/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-dollar-yields-ease-with-us-nonfarm-payrolls-report-spotlight-2026-09-03/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-dollar-yields-ease-with-us-nonfarm-payrolls-report-spotlight-2026-09-03/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-dollar-yields-ease-with-us-nonfarm-payrolls-report-spotlight-2026-09-03/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AG-20260903-spot-silver-update", "event_type": "supply_demand", "title": "路透更新：现货白银涨 2.8%至 67.14 美元", "event_time_utc": "2026-09-03T16:35:24.402Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T02:41:46.618Z", "asset_keys": ["AG"], "direction_score": {"AG": 2}, "confidence": 91, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T02:41:46.618Z", "source_updated_at_utc": "2026-09-03T16:35:24.402Z", "admission_reason": "页面更新时间落入本窗口；此前同一页面的早盘报价已在上一期覆盖", "quote_time_gmt": "2026-09-03 16:18 GMT", "spot_silver_usd_per_troy_ounce": 67.14, "spot_silver_change_pct": 2.8, "september_rate_hike_pricing_pct": 54, "previous_september_rate_hike_pricing_pct": 62, "reported_context": "路透报道，美元承压、美国国债收益率从多年高位回落，且美国非农就业数据将于周五公布" }, "transmission_chain": "美元与美国国债收益率回落→美元计价白银对其他货币持有者的相对成本下降→现货白银上涨", "invalidation_conditions": "后续美国数据或利率定价重新推高美元与收益率，并抹去该报价涨幅时，事件的短线方向信号失效", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-dollar-yields-ease-with-us-nonfarm-payrolls-report-spotlight-2026-09-03/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-dollar-yields-ease-with-us-nonfarm-payrolls-report-spotlight-2026-09-03/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-dollar-yields-ease-with-us-nonfarm-payrolls-report-spotlight-2026-09-03/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-dollar-yields-ease-with-us-nonfarm-payrolls-report-spotlight-2026-09-03/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AU-20260903-rate-pricing-update", "event_type": "real_rate", "title": "路透更新：9 月加息定价降至约 50%", "event_time_utc": "2026-09-03T17:24:32.151Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T02:02:18.996Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "direction_score": {"AU": 1, "AG": 1}, "confidence": 88, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_published_at_utc": "2026-09-03T02:02:18.996Z", "source_updated_at_utc": "2026-09-03T17:24:32.151Z", "admission_reason": "页面更新时间落入本窗口", "september_rate_hike_pricing_observations": [ { "reported_probability_pct": 54, "previous_reported_probability_pct": 62, "source_updated_at_utc": "2026-09-03T16:35:24.402Z", "source_url": "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-dollar-yields-ease-with-us-nonfarm-payrolls-report-spotlight-2026-09-03/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-dollar-yields-ease-with-us-nonfarm-payrolls-report-spotlight-2026-09-03/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-dollar-yields-ease-with-us-nonfarm-payrolls-report-spotlight-2026-09-03/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-dollar-yields-ease-with-us-nonfarm-payrolls-report-spotlight-2026-09-03/))" }, { "reported_probability_pct": 50, "previous_reported_probability_pct": 63.2, "source_updated_at_utc": "2026-09-03T17:24:32.151Z", "source_url": "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-09-03/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-09-03/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-09-03/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-09-03/))" } ], "us_10y_treasury_yield_pct": 4.758, "us_10y_treasury_yield_change_basis_points": -3.6, "prior_us_10y_treasury_yield_pct": 4.818, "dollar_index": 98.88, "dollar_index_change_pct": -0.72, "reported_context": "两篇路透更新均将 Waller 表态与市场重新评估利率路径联系起来；同一窗口内的两次概率观测存在时间差" }, "transmission_chain": "9 月加息定价下调且美国 10 年期收益率降至 4.758%→持有无息贵金属的利率机会成本下降、美元指数降至 98.88→AU 与 AG 获得短线支撑", "invalidation_conditions": "后续美国数据使 9 月加息定价、10 年期收益率或美元指数反向上行时，该利率传导信号失效", "source_urls": [ "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-dollar-yields-ease-with-us-nonfarm-payrolls-report-spotlight-2026-09-03/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-dollar-yields-ease-with-us-nonfarm-payrolls-report-spotlight-2026-09-03/)](https://reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-dollar-yields-ease-with-us-nonfarm-payrolls-report-spotlight-2026-09-03/](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-dollar-yields-ease-with-us-nonfarm-payrolls-report-spotlight-2026-09-03/))", "[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-09-03/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-09-03/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-09-03/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-09-03/))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "SHFE-AU-20260904-trading-summary", "event_type": "CFTC_positioning", "title": "上期所黄金小计持仓增至 387065 手", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T00:00:00Z", "asset_keys": ["AU"], "direction_score": {"AU": 0}, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_date": "2026-09-04", "source_endpoint_date": "2026-09-04", "gold_subtotal_open_interest_lots": 387065, "gold_subtotal_open_interest_change_lots": 2374, "gold_subtotal_volume_lots": 231082, "gold_subtotal_turnover_cny_10000": 22471455.672, "source_date_field_note": "返回体 o_day=04、o_weekday=五，旧字段 o_IMChangeDate=20150813 与端点日期冲突；日期按端点路径和 o_day 判断，源内容没有独立精确发布时间" }, "transmission_chain": "上期所黄金期货小计持仓日增 2374 手且成交 231082 手→AU 期货参与度的最新日度观测更新→下游模型更新持仓与成交序列", "invalidation_conditions": "上期所随后发布同一交易日更正值时，以最新官方黄金小计汇总覆盖本事件", "source_urls": [ "https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/kx20260904.dat" ], "source_tier": "A" }, { "event_id": "SHFE-AG-20260904-trading-summary", "event_type": "CFTC_positioning", "title": "上期所白银小计持仓增至 549016 手", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-09-04T00:00:00Z", "asset_keys": ["AG"], "direction_score": {"AG": 0}, "confidence": 95, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "source_date": "2026-09-04", "source_endpoint_date": "2026-09-04", "silver_subtotal_open_interest_lots": 549016, "silver_subtotal_open_interest_change_lots": 3721, "silver_subtotal_volume_lots": 486909, "silver_subtotal_turnover_cny_10000": 11933183.8905, "source_date_field_note": "返回体 o_day=04、o_weekday=五，旧字段 o_IMChangeDate=20150813 与端点日期冲突；日期按端点路径和 o_day 判断，源内容没有独立精确发布时间" }, "transmission_chain": "上期所白银期货小计持仓日增 3721 手且成交 486909 手→AG 期货参与度的最新日度观测更新→下游模型更新持仓与成交序列", "invalidation_conditions": "上期所随后发布同一交易日更正值时，以最新官方白银小计汇总覆盖本事件", "source_urls": [ "https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/kx20260904.dat" ], "source_tier": "A" } ], "coverage_gaps": [ { "gap_id": "GLD-daily-change", "requirement": "硬性覆盖：GLD/SLV 持仓每日变动", "status": "unverified_in_window", "summary": "本轮打开 SPDR 官方产品页并下载官方 Historical Archive；产品页显示 2026-09-03 黄金持仓 33971372.56 troy ounces，归档最新可比行仍为 2026-09-02 的 33971372.56 troy ounces，但该 9 月 3 日页面信息对应的纽约时间更新窗口在本期结束后，不能把它作为本窗口已发布的日度变动事件。", "attempted_routes": [ "[https://www.[spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/](https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/)](https://spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/](https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/))", "[https://api.[spdrgoldshares.com/api/v1/historical-archive?product=gld&exchange=NYSE&lang=en](https://api.spdrgoldshares.com/api/v1/historical-archive?product=gld&exchange=NYSE&lang=en)](https://spdrgoldshares.com/api/v1/historical-archive?product=gld&exchange=NYSE&lang=en](https://api.spdrgoldshares.com/api/v1/historical-archive?product=gld&exchange=NYSE&lang=en))" ] }, { "gap_id": "SLV-daily-change", "requirement": "硬性覆盖：GLD/SLV 持仓每日变动", "status": "unverified_in_window", "summary": "本轮打开 iShares 官方产品页并下载 BlackRock 官方历史文件；历史文件最新可比记录为 2026-09-02 的 Shares Outstanding 545150000 shares，未返回 2026-09-03 记录，产品页也仍停留在 Sep 02，因此无法核验本窗口的 SLV 日度变动。", "attempted_routes": [ "[https://www.[ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund)](https://ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund))", "[https://www.[blackrock.com/varnish-api/blk-one01-product-data/product-data/api/v1/get-fund-document?appType=PRODUCT_PAGE&appSubType=ISHARES&targetSite=us-ishares&locale=en_US&portfolioId=239855&component=fundDownload&userType=individual](https://www.blackrock.com/varnish-api/blk-one01-product-data/product-data/api/v1/get-fund-document?appType=PRODUCT_PAGE&appSubType=ISHARES&targetSite=us-ishares&locale=en_US&portfolioId=239855&component=fundDownload&userType=individual)](https://blackrock.com/varnish-api/blk-one01-product-data/product-data/api/v1/get-fund-document?appType=PRODUCT_PAGE&appSubType=ISHARES&targetSite=us-ishares&locale=en_US&portfolioId=239855&component=fundDownload&userType=individual](https://www.blackrock.com/varnish-api/blk-one01-product-data/product-data/api/v1/get-fund-document?appType=PRODUCT_PAGE&appSubType=ISHARES&targetSite=us-ishares&locale=en_US&portfolioId=239855&component=fundDownload&userType=individual))" ] }, { "gap_id": "COMEX-registered-eligible", "requirement": "硬性覆盖：COMEX 金银库存分级变动", "status": "unverified_in_window", "summary": "本轮打开 CME 官方 NYMEX、COMEX Delivery Notices & Stocks 详情页；页面只返回 Gold Stocks 与 Silver Stocks 下载入口，未展示本窗口的 registered 与 eligible 数值，因此没有用入口壳或不可核验转述构造事件。", "attempted_routes": [ "[https://www.[cmegroup.com/solutions/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/nymex-delivery-notices.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/solutions/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/nymex-delivery-notices.html)](https://cmegroup.com/solutions/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/nymex-delivery-notices.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/solutions/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/nymex-delivery-notices.html))" ] }, { "gap_id": "SGE-weekly-inventory-flow", "requirement": "硬性覆盖：SGE 出入库（周频）", "status": "unverified_in_window", "summary": "本轮检查上金所 2026-09-04 每日行情查询页，页面返回系统无查询的数据；本轮未取得新的周频出入库数值，旧周报索引结果不足以覆盖当前窗口。", "attempted_routes": [ "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/quotation_daily_new?start_date=2026-09-04&end_date=2026-09-04", "https://www.sge.com.cn/sjzx/hqzb" ] } ] }