One of the war's biggest barrages, the IEA meets on emergency oil, and five geopolitical signals for October 7, 2026

Middle East: Vance sets the enrichment test as the IEA meets on emergency stocks

• US Vice President JD Vance said Iran must make a "meaningful" reduction in its nuclear enrichment capacity to satisfy Washington and end the seven-month war, in an interview with Reuters published on Tuesday. "If you don't want a nuclear weapon, then why do you need 60% enriched fuel? And if you want to show commitment to not building a nuclear weapon, don't build highly enriched fuel," Vance said, speaking on Monday after a campaign trip in Alaska 1.
• President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the war will conclude "the nice way or the not-so-nice way", and that his biggest problem is that "nobody knows who the hell is running the country". Qatar's emir, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, met Iran's interior minister, Eskandar Momeni, in Doha on Monday to discuss de-escalation, the Amiri Diwan said, and Qatari officials described the mediation between Washington and Tehran as gradually progressing 2.
• The governing board of the International Energy Agency meets at 1 p.m. Paris time on Wednesday for an initial discussion of the release of up to 100 million barrels of diesel and crude that G7 leaders pledged last week, two EU diplomats said. Board members are not expected to decide anything at that session and will take the question up again at their regular quarterly meeting next week, with the details due to be settled at an October 14-15 board meeting 34. The G7 announced the 100 million barrels from emergency reserves last Friday without saying how the volume splits between crude and refined products, or which countries would take part; Vitol chief executive Russell Hardy said on Tuesday that trading houses were still working out what had been promised and where 4.

Middle East: Houthis strike Aden airport as Yemen's government retakes the Bab al-Mandab approaches

• Two missiles launched by Yemen's Houthis targeted Aden International Airport early on Wednesday, with no casualties reported, the media office of Aden's security department said. One missile landed near the runway minutes before a flight from Cairo was due to land; authorities cancelled the landing and diverted the aircraft to Jeddah, and moved two planes off the runway over fears of further strikes 7. Aden is the main international gateway for the parts of Yemen outside Houthi control. Earlier on Wednesday the Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted and destroyed a Houthi ballistic missile launched toward Khamis Mushait in southern Saudi Arabia, and that the threats originated from Houthi-held Sanaa and the Saada and Amran governorates 7.
• The attack came as Saudi-backed government forces pressed an offensive announced on Sunday by Rashad al-Alimi, head of Yemen's internationally recognised Presidential Leadership Council, to retake all territory held by the Houthis. The Yemeni military said its forces had "secured" the Bab al-Mandab Strait and captured the Red Sea city of Mokha on Monday afternoon with Saudi air support, and had seized Dhubab airfield 45km to the south; four government sources told Reuters the forces had only reached Mokha's outskirts by late Monday and that Houthi fighters were retreating, and Houthi-run media rejected the claims as "Saudi propaganda" 8. The Saudi-led coalition said its jets were flying round-the-clock in support and had destroyed 324 "high-value" targets since the offensive began 8.
• The Houthis said they struck Saudi Aramco facilities in Riyadh and at Khurais, Riyadh's international airport and Abha airport. Satellite imagery from Saturday reviewed by BBC Verify showed thick dark smoke at the Aramco Riyadh Refinery, with a similar plume at the Khurais Central Processing Facility 8. Saudi Arabia's aviation authority reported attacks on Jazan and Najran airports on Monday evening 6. At least 959 people have been killed and 5,000 injured in Yemen since August 6, according to the government's health ministry, and the United Nations says another 197,000 have been displaced 8.

Russia-Ukraine: one of the war's biggest barrages, and a tanker ablaze in the Black Sea

• Russia fired 70 missiles and drones in one of its biggest strikes on Ukraine, targeting the energy sector and killing at least 11 people, President Volodymyr Zelensky said. "One of the key targets was our energy infrastructure. The Russians wanted to strike painfully and demonstratively," he said, adding that "Russian ballistic missiles remain the greatest challenge" 9. Two people were killed in Kyiv, four in the northern city of Pryluky and two in the central Poltava region, authorities said. The Ukrainian air force said its air defence units downed 161 targets, and named Kyiv, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv as the focus of the attacks 9.
• Russia's defence ministry said its forces carried out a "massive strike" on military-industrial facilities using high-precision land-, sea- and air-launched weapons as well as drones, and said the targets included sites where the Ukrainian defence company Fire Point manufactures and stores its Flamingo cruise missiles and medium- and long-range drones, in Kyiv and the Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava and Kharkiv regions 9. In Pryluky, a missile hit a five-storey residential building, killing at least four people and wounding 20, with residents possibly still buried under the rubble; overnight strikes damaged an industrial facility in Dnipro, transport infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia and apartment buildings in Kremenchuk 9.
• In the Black Sea, emergency crews rescued the 23-member crew of the Liberian-flagged tanker Aframax Rio, which was set ablaze off Russia's Black Sea coast after coming under attack from an unmanned vessel, the Russian Transport Ministry said. The crew were all Indian nationals and no injuries were reported; authorities in the Krasnodar region settlement of Sirius closed local beaches 10.

US-China: nuclear-site visits discussed as the commercial perimeter stays contested

• The United States has discussed starting reciprocal visits to nuclear sites with China and plans to keep pushing the idea in meetings over the coming months, CNN reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter. The idea was first raised by China in meetings with US officials this year, and visits to US Department of Energy national laboratories and equivalent Chinese facilities were discussed; the talks have mainly taken place on the sidelines of gatherings of the UN Security Council's five permanent members 11.
• Trump called for trilateral arms control negotiations between the United States, China and Russia when he met Xi Jinping last month, but the two leaders did not discuss nuclear-site visits during their talks, according to a US official cited in the report. Beijing says its nuclear arsenal is far smaller than those of Russia and the United States, which it says makes its participation in such talks unnecessary. Another Trump-Xi meeting is widely considered likely this year, potentially at November's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in China or at the Group of 20 meetings in the United States in December 11.
• On the commercial side, Chinese customs data show rare earth magnet shipments to the United States fell 21% month on month to 512 metric tons in August, and recorded no US-bound shipments of yttrium — used in heat-resistant coatings on jet engine turbine blades — in January, May and June. The US Commerce Department has capped the parts licensed to the Commercial Aircraft Corp of China (Comac) to prevent stockpiling, slowed export licensing for airplane parts bound for China in recent weeks, and is weighing a rule that would make it easier to restrict landing gear and other aircraft parts, Reuters reported on October 1 12.

Taiwan Strait: sorties jump to 14 as Koo says the arms package is not being split

• Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense reported 14 PLA aircraft sorties in the 24 hours to 6 a.m. on October 7, nine of them crossing the median line into northern, central and south-western airspace, along with seven PLA Navy ships and one official Chinese ship 13. The previous window, to 6 a.m. on October 6, recorded no PLA aircraft at all, with eight PLA Navy ships and eight official Chinese ships, and the window to October 4 also recorded no aircraft 14.
• Defence Minister Wellington Koo told parliament on Tuesday that he had not heard that the United States planned to carve up a potential $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan into smaller batches, and said Washington's commitment to Taiwan's self-defence had not changed. "Regarding arms sales, we respect the US review process. We are also continuing to coordinate with the United States. At present, we have not received any information about so-called separate batches," Koo said 15. Trump has held the package back to protect the trade truce with Xi Jinping and in May described it as a "very good negotiating chip"; he approved an $11 billion package in December 15.
• On the F-16 programme, Koo said the Block 70 aircraft are in accelerated production with more than 60 already on the line, that completed jets will be tested before Taiwan and the United States arrange a flight home at a suitable time, and that Taipei is negotiating non-cash compensation for delayed deliveries 16. Taiwan opened its 14th economic and cultural office in the United States, in Phoenix, on Monday with Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs attending, after China's consulate general in Los Angeles wrote to Hobbs twice asking her to object to the plan; TSMC has pledged a further $100 billion for its Arizona expansion, taking its Phoenix-area investment to $265 billion, the largest foreign direct investment in US history 17. Taiwanese Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung and former President Tsai Ing-wen are also in the United States this week, Tsai for her first visit since leaving office two years ago, and China's embassy in Washington repeated that it "firmly opposes official interactions of any form between China's Taiwan region and the US" 15.