Trump waives Russia's sanctions days before they bite, Iran's Hormuz offer stays open, and five geopolitical signals for October 19, 2026

Middle East: Iran keeps its seven-day Hormuz offer open while ship attacks keep coming

• Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days is "still on the table", Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday 1. He spoke in Baghdad at a meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. Tehran's conditions include lifting the US blockade of its ports, cancelling sanctions on its oil exports and ending hostilities on all fronts 1.
• If Washington accepts, the strait would open within six days and talks would resume the following day, Araghchi said 1. The sticking point is Washington's insistence on addressing Iran's nuclear programme first. Vice-President J.D. Vance said this month that Iran must make a "tangible" cut in its uranium enrichment capacity before the war can end 1.
• Attacks on shipping continued through the weekend. Britain's Maritime Trade Operations office reported at least 12 ships attacked in the week to October 16. It warned that most struck vessels refuse to report, so its count is too low 2. On Saturday the master of a tanker reported a rocket-propelled grenade fired from a small boat 78 nautical miles north-east of Jubail, damaging the aft port quarter 2. General Brad Cooper, who heads US Central Command, said 400 ships and 100 million barrels moved through the waterway in the past week, and that it "is controlled by the United States and our regional partners, not Iran" 2.

Middle East: Egypt offers Saudi Arabia military support as the Yemen war widens

• Egypt's National Defence Council, chaired by President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi, agreed on Sunday to give Saudi Arabia "all possible forms of support" so the kingdom can defend its security 5. The statement gave no details. A day earlier, el-Sissi asked parliament to authorise him to deploy troops and military equipment abroad 5.
• An airstrike killed at least nine people, among them five children and two women, in the rebel-held northern province of Saada on Sunday, according to the Houthi-run health ministry 5. Its spokesman, Anees al-Asbahi, said 19 others were wounded, including 11 children, and blamed Saudi Arabia, which had no immediate comment 5. The Houthis' military spokesman said 110 missiles or airstrikes hit civilian sites in Sanaa and other cities in 24 hours, a figure the Associated Press could not verify 5.
• Saudi Arabia took losses of its own. A helicopter gunship crashed near Najran in the south-west and killed both crew, which the military blamed on a technical malfunction; the Houthis said they shot it down 5. A Houthi projectile then landed in a residential area of Najran province, wounding six people 5.

Russia-Ukraine: Trump waives the sanctions as Ukraine burns a St Petersburg oil terminal

• President Donald Trump signed an executive order late on Friday putting the Lindsey Graham Russian Sanctions Act on hold days before it was to take effect, citing the national interest 7. The Senate passed the bill 86-11. Republican Senator Thom Tillis called the waiver "beyond irresponsible", and John Cornyn said "Lindsey would be appalled" 7. Congress is in recess until after the November 3 midterm elections 7.
• Ukraine answered with one of its largest raids of the war, launching more than 1,000 drones at Russia on Sunday 8. Fires broke out at the Petersburg Oil Terminal and the Ruchi oil depot in St Petersburg, killing one person and wounding five, governor Alexander Beglov said. A logistics centre owned by the retailer Ozon and a data centre run by VK were also hit 8. Russia's defence ministry said it destroyed 1,015 Ukrainian drones over 15 regions, Crimea and the Black Sea 8.
• Russia struck back overnight into Monday in what its defence ministry called a "massive strike". Ukraine's air force counted 269 drones plus ballistic and cruise missiles, and said one person was killed and eight injured in Kyiv 9. Moscow said the targets included a data centre, a locomotive depot and a hub storing components for Flamingo cruise missiles. Its forces also struck a bulk carrier 130 kilometres south-west of Odesa, it said 9.

US-China: Beijing puts its own exports under licence, from AI models to tunnel borers

• China's commerce and science ministries published a draft revision to the catalogue of technologies subject to export bans or restrictions, adding 40 technologies 11. The list covers 23 artificial-intelligence technologies, chip design for AI and memory chips, 12 solar technologies including polysilicon, and five in biomedicine 11. Exporting large-model core technologies trained on sensitive national data would be prohibited, and models of 2 trillion parameters or more could be restricted 11.
• On Monday the commerce ministry said shield tunnel boring machines would need export licences from November 18, and adjusted its controls on drone-related items and dredgers 12. China is a key supplier of the machines used to bore metro and highway tunnels. India, which is building both at scale, depends on imports of them 12.
• The economy underneath all this grew 4.5% in July-September from a year earlier, up from 4.3% in the second quarter and faster than forecasters expected 13. Exports rose 36.3% in September, and the surplus reached $938 billion in the first nine months, putting China on course to pass last year's record of $1.2 trillion 13. The National Bureau of Statistics' deputy head, Mao Shengyong, said insufficient domestic demand remains a relatively prominent problem 11.

Taiwan Strait: Chinese coast guard ships enter Pratas waters as defence funds stay frozen

• Two China Coast Guard vessels, numbered 3301 and 3303, entered restricted waters around the Taiwan-held Pratas Islands at 3:34pm on Friday, the Coast Guard Administration said 14. Taiwan sent the patrol ship Cijin and patrol boat PP-10032 to flank one of them, broadcasting warnings in Chinese and English and ordering it out 14. The coast guard says it has run 11 operations this year to expel Chinese ships from the waters around Dongsha, involving 14 vessel encounters 14.
• The military picture was otherwise steady. Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense reported five PLA aircraft sorties, three of them across the median line, six PLA Navy ships and nine official Chinese ships in the 24 hours to 6am on Monday 15. The previous 24 hours brought two sorties, both across the median line, five naval ships and nine official ships 16.
• Taipei's own budget is stuck. More than 150 requests to release frozen Ministry of National Defense funds are waiting because the legislature's Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee has not scheduled a review 17. The army alone wants more than NT$1.35 billion ($41.75 million) of parts for its 108 M1A2T Abrams tanks, including 303 war-reserve items such as AGT-1500 gas turbine engines 17. With two months left in the fiscal year, the army says the buying may not be completed in time 17.