截至2026年8月18日15时：2条豆粕ETF结构化事件

[ { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260818-soymeal-rapeseed-spread", "title": "三地豆菜粕价差较 8 月 17 日扩大 10 至 20 元", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T06:24:38Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 1, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-18", "comparison_date": "2026-08-17", "spread_definition": "豆粕价格减菜粕价格", "unit": "元/吨", "markets": [ { "market": "广东", "soymeal_price": 3100, "soymeal_change_vs_previous": 50, "rapeseed_meal_price": 2370, "rapeseed_meal_change_vs_previous": 30, "spread": 730, "spread_change_vs_previous": 20 }, { "market": "广西", "soymeal_price": 3060, "soymeal_change_vs_previous": 40, "rapeseed_meal_price": 2360, "rapeseed_meal_change_vs_previous": 30, "spread": 700, "spread_change_vs_previous": 10 }, { "market": "南通", "soymeal_price": 3090, "soymeal_change_vs_previous": 60, "rapeseed_meal_price": 2340, "rapeseed_meal_change_vs_previous": 40, "spread": 750, "spread_change_vs_previous": 20 } ] }, "transmission_chain": "广东、广西和南通豆菜粕价差较 8 月 17 日扩大 10 至 20 元/吨，豆粕相对菜粕的价格表现更强；替代品价差扩大为豆粕现货和 SOYMEAL_ETF 提供边际偏多信号，但仍需观察豆粕涨价后的成交承接。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "三地豆菜粕价差回落至 8 月 17 日水平或以下", "豆粕价格相对菜粕转弱，且主要市场现货报价同步下调" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/a/26081814/0F071F340820BB7D_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081814/0F071F340820BB7D_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/a/26081814/0F071F340820BB7D_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/a/26081814/0F071F340820BB7D_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "mysteel-cn-20260818-guangxi-forward-basis", "title": "广西油厂远期基差报 M01+0 至 M05+20", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-18T06:25:31Z", "event_type": "spot_basis", "asset_keys": [ "SOYMEAL_ETF" ], "direction_score": 0, "confidence": 96, "horizon": "weeks", "raw_facts": { "report_date": "2026-08-18", "unit": "元/吨", "comparison_to_previous": "页面未披露较前一期变动", "forward_quotes": [ { "market": "钦州", "mill": "钦州中粮", "quote_text": "10-1 月 M01+20，27 年 5-7 月 M05+20" }, { "market": "钦州", "mill": "钦州大洋", "quote_text": "10-1 月 M01+20，27 年 5-7 月 M05+20" }, { "market": "广西港青", "mill": "广西港青", "quote_text": "10-11 月 M01+0，5-7 月 M05+0" }, { "market": "防城港", "mill": "防城港枫叶", "quote_text": "10-11 月 M01+0，5-7 月 M05+0" }, { "market": "防城港", "mill": "防城港九三", "quote_text": "2026 年 8 月 M2701-100 限量" } ], "other_forward_terms": [ { "market": "防城港", "mill": "防城港大海", "quote_text": "3180（9 月 1 日开始执行）" }, { "market": "防城港", "mill": "澳加粮油", "quote_text": "3100，月底前提完" } ] }, "transmission_chain": "广西多家油厂公布跨月基差和提货条款，为后续豆粕现货定价提供近远期参考；页面未披露较前一期变动，当前对 SOYMEAL_ETF 保持中性，后续观察实际成交和基差调整。", "invalidation_conditions": [ "上述油厂远期基差或提货条款被新报价替换", "实际成交价格明显偏离页面公布的远期条款，且广西市场基差方向发生改变" ], "source_urls": [ "[https://ncp.[m.mysteel.com/doupo/m/26081814/8E1E5206453AA155_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/doupo/m/26081814/8E1E5206453AA155_abc.html)](https://m.mysteel.com/doupo/m/26081814/8E1E5206453AA155_abc.html](https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/doupo/m/26081814/8E1E5206453AA155_abc.html))" ], "source_tier": "B" } ]