2026-08-12 14:30｜CPI待公布，霍尔木兹通行降至8艘

{ "schema_version": 1, "as_of": "2026-08-12 14:30:00+08:00", "window_start_utc": "2026-08-12T01:30:00Z", "window_end_utc": "2026-08-12T06:30:00Z", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "events": [ { "event_id": "reuters-AUAG-20260812-metals-oil-snapshot", "event_type": "geopolitics", "title": "金报 4400.44 美元，银报 65.30 美元", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T02:19:41.622Z", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "status": "new", "confidence": 97, "direction_score": {"AU": 1, "AG": 1}, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "event_date": "2026-08-12", "source_page_published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T02:19:41.622Z", "source_page_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-12T05:48:27.999Z", "spot_gold_usd_per_ounce": 4400.44, "spot_gold_change_percent": 0.77, "spot_silver_usd_per_ounce": 65.30, "spot_silver_change_percent": 1.0, "brent_usd_per_barrel": 89.46, "brent_change_percent": 0.62, "wti_usd_per_barrel": 83.71, "wti_change_percent": 0.61, "source_context": "Reuters 报道，地缘紧张升级之际，现货金涨 0.77%至 4400.44 美元/盎司，现货银涨 1%至 65.30 美元/盎司；WTI 涨 0.61%至 83.71 美元/桶，布伦特涨 0.62%至 89.46 美元/桶。" }, "transmission_chain": "中东航运袭击与 CPI 前等待→避险需求上升、能源通胀风险受关注→AU 和 AG 现货报价上行", "invalidation_conditions": "后续数据确认航运风险缓解且贵金属报价回吐本次涨幅时，本次短线状态更新失效", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-12/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-12/)](https://reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-12/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-12/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "reuters-AUAG-20260812-dollar-snapshot-update", "event_type": "macro_release", "title": "美元指数报 99.89，9 月政策概率各半", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-12T00:57:27.831Z", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-12T04:56:01.001Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "asset_keys": ["AU", "AG"], "status": "updated", "confidence": 95, "direction_score": {"AU": -1, "AG": -1}, "horizon": "days", "raw_facts": 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"core_cpi_monthly_percent": 0.2, "core_cpi_yearly_percent": 2.5, "gasoline_usd_per_gallon": 4.064 }, "prior": { "headline_cpi_monthly_percent": -0.4, "headline_cpi_yearly_percent": 3.5, "core_cpi_monthly_percent": 0.0, "gasoline_usd_per_gallon": 4.184 }, "source_context": "Reuters 调查预计美国 7 月 CPI 环比增长 0.1%，6 月为下降 0.4%；同比预计从 3.5%放缓至 3.4%。核心 CPI 环比预计增长 0.2%，核心同比预计为 2.5%。美国能源信息署数据显示，汽油均价由 6 月每加仑 4.184 美元降至 7 月 4.064 美元。实际值截至本窗口结束尚未发布。" }, "transmission_chain": "CPI 预期环比回升、核心同比仍高于 2%目标→9 月加息预期与降息预期同时存在→AU 和 AG 短线方向混合，等待实际值", "invalidation_conditions": "美国劳工部实际 CPI 公布后若实际值取代上述调查预期，本预发布事件不再代表最新宏观数值", "source_urls": 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"2026-08-12T05:30:53.700Z", "hormuz_tracked_vessels": 8, "hormuz_10_day_average_vessels": 12, "hormuz_prior_day_vessels": 14, "hormuz_vessels_entering": 7, "hormuz_vessels_exiting": 1, "hormuz_lseg_transits": 11, "hormuz_lseg_prior_day_transits": 14, "hormuz_prewar_typical_vessels": "130-140", "bab_al_mandab_tracked_vessels": 30, "bab_al_mandab_10_day_average_vessels": 25, "source_context": "Reuters 转述 Kpler 数据称，周二霍尔木兹海峡追踪到 8 艘船，低于约 12 艘的 10 日均值，是 8 月 5 日以来最低；其中 7 艘驶入、1 艘驶出。LSEG 数据显示周二通行 11 艘，前一日 14 艘；战前通常为 130 至 140 艘。" }, "transmission_chain": "霍尔木兹通行量低于 10 日均值且远低于战前水平→能源运输中断与地缘风险仍在→AU 避险支撑、AG 方向混合", "invalidation_conditions": "后续航运数据确认通行量连续恢复至战前区间且冲突条件缓解时，本次航运风险更新失效", "source_urls": 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