Weekly settlements: Hormuz risk lifts oil, while copper breaks from the pack
For Aug. 14–20, oil and grains rallied on Hormuz risk and demand support, gold advanced amid a divided Fed signal, and copper fell despite tight physical supply.
For the week through Thursday, August 20, 2026, oil, grains, and gold finished higher while COMEX copper fell. The common thread was a risk premium in energy and continued demand support in agricultural markets; copper was the outlier, with a tight physical backdrop failing to keep the futures contract above its Aug. 14 level.
Data cutoff: 5:00 p.m. ET on August 20, 2026. Percentage changes compare the same contract from the Aug. 14 close to the Aug. 20 settlement. MarketWatch's Aug. 14 historical
Close is used as a close proxy rather than an official exchange settlement. Weekly ranges below are derived from the displayed daily highs and lows, not exchange-published weekly range fields.Settlement snapshot
| Market | Fixed contract | Aug. 14 reference | Aug. 20 settlement | Week-over-week move | Aug. 14–20 derived range | Aug. 20 session range | Aug. 20 volume / open interest | Week-over-week volume / open-interest change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | COMEX Aug. 2026 (GCQ26) 1 | $4,380.40 close proxy 1 | $4,516.30 1 | +3.10% ($4,516.30 ÷ $4,380.40 − 1) 1 | $4,315.00–$4,530.00, derived 1 | $4,486.00–$4,530.00 1 | 478 / 374* 1 | Data temporarily unavailable |
| WTI | NYMEX Sep. 2026 (CLU26) 2 | $82.40 close proxy 2 | $87.83 2 | +6.59% ($87.83 ÷ $82.40 − 1) 2 | $80.71–$89.00, derived 2 | $85.60–$89.00 2 | 17.89K / Data temporarily unavailable 2 | Data temporarily unavailable |
| Brent | ICE Oct. 2026 (BRNV26) 3 | $88.52 close proxy 3 | $93.78 4 | +5.94% ($93.78 ÷ $88.52 − 1) 3 | $86.20–$94.71, derived 3 | $91.47–$94.71 3 | 286.61K / 314,283 3 | Data temporarily unavailable |
| Corn | CBOT Dec. 2026 (CZ26) 5 | 483.25¢/bu close proxy 5 | 503.50¢/bu 5 | +4.19% (503.50 ÷ 483.25 − 1) 5 | 471.50–506.25¢/bu, derived 5 | 497.25–506.25¢/bu 5 | 381.68K / 925,396 5 | Data temporarily unavailable |
| Soybeans | CBOT Nov. 2026 (SX26) 6 | 1,192.50¢/bu close proxy 6 | 1,236.50¢/bu 6 | +3.69% (1,236.50 ÷ 1,192.50 − 1) 6 | 1,182.50–1,244.50¢/bu, derived 6 | 1,234.50–1,244.50¢/bu 6 | 146.74K / 483,250 6 | Data temporarily unavailable |
| Copper | COMEX Sep. 2026 (HGU26) 7 | $6.6130/lb close proxy 7 | $6.4690/lb 7 | −2.18% ($6.4690 ÷ $6.6130 − 1) 7 | $6.3700–$6.7415/lb, derived 7 | $6.4025–$6.5170/lb 7 | 44.27K / 72,918 7 | Data temporarily unavailable |
* Gold's volume is the displayed quote volume and its open interest is for an expiring August contract; neither should be read as a clean weekly positioning signal. The calculated percentage changes use the displayed reference and settlement values, rounded to two decimals.
Oil: the Hormuz premium met an inventory test
Oil had the strongest weekly move. September WTI settled at $87.83 and October Brent at $93.78, both their highest settlements since July 24. Reuters tied the Thursday rise to President Trump's warning of retaliation against countries supporting Iran and his call for economic warfare and unprecedented isolation. 4
The supply risk is tangible. Reuters reported that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained severely reduced and unchanged from the prior day; before the war, the waterway carried roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption. 4 That disruption explains why a political threat could lift both benchmarks even while the United States was building crude stocks.
The EIA's report for the week ended August 14 showed commercial U.S. crude inventories rising 4.4 million barrels, to 428.8 million, while distillate stocks fell 1.5 million barrels, to 105.6 million. Refineries ran at 97.2% of operable capacity, and four-week total products supplied averaged 20.5 million barrels per day, down 2.9% from the same period a year earlier. 8
The oil signal is split. Hormuz risk can keep the front of the curve elevated, but the EIA inventory build gives traders a concrete test for whether the premium is beginning to outrun physical demand. The next weekly stock report matters more than another headline unless flows through the waterway change materially.
Gold: a hawkish Fed path met softer near-term expectations
August COMEX gold rose from $4,380.40 to $4,516.30, a calculated 3.10% gain. The contract traded between $4,315.00 and $4,530.00 during the window. 1
The July FOMC minutes supplied the week's rate tension. Reuters reported that three officials dissented in favor of a rate increase, the largest one-way dissent bloc since September 2016. Several participants favored a 25-basis-point increase, while many thought tighter policy would probably be needed to return inflation to 2%. 9
Near-term expectations moved in the other direction. Reuters said softer inflation and employment data reduced the immediate hike probability, although markets still implied roughly one-in-three odds of a September increase. 9 Gold's gain therefore carried two opposing rates signals: less immediate pressure from the next meeting, alongside a higher risk that the Fed's longer path stays restrictive.
Grains: crop progress stayed strong while demand kept bids underneath
Corn and soybeans rose 4.19% and 3.69%, respectively, on the same-contract comparison. USDA's August 17 Crop Progress report put corn dough at 76%, up from 61% a week earlier and above the 70% five-year average. Corn condition was 47% good plus 13% excellent, or 60%, versus 48% plus 13%, or 61%, the prior week. 10
Soybeans were further along as well. USDA reported 85% of the selected states' soybean acreage setting pods, up from 74% a week earlier and above the 80% five-year average. Soybean condition was 49% good plus 12% excellent, or 61%, versus 51% plus 11%, or 62%, the prior week. 10
The August WASDE balance sheets gave both markets a large-supply anchor. USDA projected 2026/27 U.S. corn production at 16.013 billion bushels, with a 180.7-bushel yield, exports of 3.275 billion bushels, and ending stocks of 1.653 billion bushels. The July projection had exports at 3.200 billion bushels and ending stocks at 1.790 billion. 11
For soybeans, USDA raised 2026/27 production from 4.475 billion to 4.519 billion bushels, lifted crushings from 2.750 billion to 2.780 billion, and raised ending stocks from 310 million to 320 million bushels. 11
Demand supplied the counterweight. USDA reported private sales of 136,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for 2026/27 delivery on Aug. 14 and another 136,000 metric tons on Aug. 18. It also reported 150,000 metric tons sold to unknown destinations on Aug. 20. 121314
USDA's Aug. 20 Weekly Export Sales report was published, but its accessible detail page supplies no corn or soybean totals. Those weekly totals are data temporarily unavailable; the private-sale announcements above are the verified demand signals for this window. 15
The grain rally therefore rested on demand support against crop conditions that remained broadly favorable. A wider sales book or a weather-driven yield threat would change that balance; the verified reports this week establish neither one.
Copper: tight physical supply, lower futures price
September COMEX copper fell from $6.6130 to $6.4690 per pound, a calculated 2.18% decline. The contract's derived weekly range was $6.3700–$6.7415. 7
The physical backdrop remained tight. Mining.com reported that LME cash copper was near a record around $14,500 per tonne, LME inventories had fallen for a 42nd straight day to 204,975 tonnes, and almost half of that stock was earmarked for withdrawal. The report linked the tightness partly to the DRC concentrate-export ban and U.S.-China metal flows. 16
Supply disruptions added to the squeeze: Antofagasta cut 2026 production guidance by about 5% after storms halted Los Pelambres, Codelco's Andes Norte project at El Teniente will not reach production until 2029, and Indonesia's PT Smelting had been shut since Aug. 8 after furnace damage. 16
COMEX copper still finished lower. The divergence says physical scarcity alone did not control the week's futures price; industrial-demand expectations and positioning remained strong enough to pull the contract away from its Aug. 14 level. The next confirmation is whether warehouse tightness persists while COMEX selling broadens.
Cross-market read
- Oil carried the clearest event premium. Hormuz disruption and the threat of wider economic retaliation lifted the benchmarks, while the EIA's crude build supplied the first hard test of that premium.
- Grains rose inside a large-crop framework. Crop progress and WASDE production estimates still point to substantial supply, but stronger soybean buying and higher corn export assumptions kept demand from disappearing into the harvest story.
- Gold gained despite a less comfortable Fed path. The week rewarded safe-haven and near-term rate relief, while the minutes kept the risk of renewed tightening alive.
- Copper separated physical tightness from the futures close. Mine, smelter, and warehouse disruptions supported the physical market, yet COMEX fell 2.18% across the fixed-contract comparison.
The next useful evidence is follow-through: another week of Hormuz flow disruption or inventory draws for oil, broader export sales or a weather shock for grains, a change in September-rate pricing for gold, and confirmation that copper's physical tightness is reaching the futures curve.
References
- 1COMEX gold August 2026 historical data
marketwatch.com
- 2WTI crude oil September 2026 historical data
marketwatch.com
- 3Brent crude oil October 2026 historical data
marketwatch.com
- 4
- 5Corn futures December 2026 historical data
marketwatch.com
- 6Soybean futures November 2026 historical data
marketwatch.com
- 7COMEX copper September 2026 historical data
marketwatch.com
- 8
- 9
- 10Crop Progress, August 17, 2026
esmis.nal.usda.gov
- 11WASDE-674, August 2026
esmis.nal.usda.gov
- 12Export Sales to China, August 14, 2026
fas.usda.gov
- 13Export Sales to China, August 18, 2026
fas.usda.gov
- 14
- 15Weekly Export Sales, August 20, 2026
fas.usda.gov
- 16
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