2026-06-21

Hokusai leads Jun 21 — retiring Jul 31, −22.6%

LEGO Art 31208 Hokusai – The Great Wave ($77.36, −22.6% vs. $99.99 MSRP) leads the Jun 21 radar on the strongest combination of near-term retirement urgency (~5 weeks to Jul 31), tight forecast band (13.56pp, +30.12% mid), and fresh Jun 2026 data — with a $1.01 price drop since the Jun 13 checkpoint. N-1 Starfighter (75325) takes the secondary slot at −37.5% (deepest discount in the pool) despite a wide 34.34pp forecast band. On the sideboard: Huracán Tecnica (42161) is 87 days stale and 3 days from BrickRanker's 90-day delisting threshold on Jun 26. 14th consecutive ultra-stable session; 44th consecutive zero-listing platform run; BrickRanker site restructured from /sets/ to /rankings/set/ URLs.

Vintage LEGO Marketplace Radar @NeoDrop Official

Two cooldowns lifted at midnight — 75325 N-1 Starfighter and 75333 Obi-Wan Starfighter — joining a nine-set pool with BrickRanker data refreshed across five entries since Jun 19. The clear lead is 31208 Hokusai – The Great Wave: its BR average dropped another $1.01 overnight to $77.36 (−22.6% vs. $99.99 MSRP), data is fresh as of Jun 2026, and retirement is ~5 weeks out. On the sideboard: 42161 Huracán Tecnica is now 87 days stale and sits three days from BrickRanker's 90-day delisting threshold on Jun 26. 1

Quick-scan table

All prices USD. BR avg = BrickRanker 6-month rolling average sold price. Forecast = 2-year post-retirement appreciation midpoint. Data age as of Jun 21.

Rank	Set	Theme	MSRP	BR avg	vs. MSRP	Forecast mid	Band	Sales	Data age
#1 Lead	31208 Hokusai Great Wave	Art	$99.99	$77.36	−22.6%	+30.12%	13.56pp ✅	75	Jun 2026 ✅
Secondary	75325 N-1 Starfighter	Star Wars	$59.99	$37.50	−37.5%	+14.98%	34.34pp ⚠️	553	Jun 2026 ✅
#3	75405 Home One Starcruiser	Star Wars	$69.99	$47.08	−32.7%	+20.57%	18.14pp	76	Jun 2026 ✅
#4	75404 Acclamator Assault Ship	Star Wars	$49.99	$36.19	−27.6%	+21.20%	19.16pp	101	Jun 2026 ✅
#5	10338 Bumblebee	Icons	$89.99	$65.93	−26.7%	+23.57%	25.39pp ⚠️	65	May 2026 (~31d)
#6	75401 Ahsoka's Jedi Interceptor	Star Wars	$44.99	$33.96	−24.5%	+14.13%	20.35pp	164	Jun 2026 ✅
#7	75333 Obi-Wan Jedi Starfighter	Star Wars	$29.99	$22.66	−24.4%	+18.07%	10.67pp ✅	1,568	Jun 2026 ✅
🚨 Watch	10359 Fountain Garden	Icons	$99.99	$67.66	−32.3%	+29.04%	32.06pp ⚠️	26	Apr 2026 (56d ⚠️)
🚨 Delist	42161 Huracán Tecnica	Technic	$49.99	$37.67	−24.6%	+38.89%	22.82pp	23	Mar 2026 (87d stale ⚠️)

Sources: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

#1 — 31208 Hokusai – The Great Wave

31208 Hokusai – The Great Wave — Jun 21 key metrics

BrickRanker 6-month rolling averages, data refreshed Jun 2026. All figures USD.

BR 6-month avg (secondary market)	$77.36	−1.0%vs. Jun 13 checkpoint
Discount vs. $99.99 MSRP	22.6%
2-yr post-retirement forecast (mid)	30.12%
Total recorded sales	75
Forecast band (low → high)	21.93% → 35.49%

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BrickRanker's 6-month rolling average for the Hokusai set is $77.36 against the $99.99 MSRP — a −22.6% discount that is the shallowest in today's full nine-set pool. That number is not the lead argument; retirement is. Community-sourced tracking corroborated by BrickRanker's own "Retiring soon!" tag puts this set off shelves around Jul 31, 2026 — roughly five weeks from today. 1

The BR price dropped $1.01 from the Jun 13 checkpoint ($78.37 → $77.36), the largest single absolute move in the current batch. Data refreshed to Jun 2026 — the set is actively trading. At 75 total recorded sales, it sits in the middle tier for liquidity in this pool; the 1,810-piece count and Art-theme display nature mean not every owner resells. 1

The 2-year post-retirement forecast is +30.12% mid, with a band from +21.93% to +35.49% — a spread of 13.56 percentage points. That is the second-tightest forecast band in today's pool (behind only the Obi-Wan Starfighter's 10.67pp), and the only tight-band forecast attached to a set with both genuine retirement urgency and a meaningful buy-in discount. The N-1 Starfighter delivers a deeper −37.5% discount but carries a 34.34pp forecast band that is more than twice as wide — BrickRanker's model has far less confidence in where it lands post-retirement. 1 2

At $77.36 with 1,810 pieces, price-per-brick is $0.043 — low even by Art theme standards, and the second-highest piece count in this pool behind only the Fountain Garden.

Why Art sets hold up post-retirement

Art sets skew heavily toward display buyers and completionists who rarely resell sealed copies quickly. Hokusai's 75 BR-tracked sales over its ~3.5-year retail window reflect constrained secondary supply relative to print run, not thin demand. BrickRanker rated its confidence level as High. The Hokusai image itself — Katsushika Hokusai's The Great Wave off Kanagawa — has demonstrated durable cross-market recognition that extends beyond the LEGO collector base, which is atypical for this theme. That broadens the potential resale audience post-retirement. 1

Authentication notes

Art-set mosaics are structurally difficult to fake convincingly at scale — the correct plate counts and colors per row are verifiable against the official building instructions. For open/used listings of 31208 specifically:

Missing 1×1 plates: the ocean and wave sections use thousands of blue and white 1×1 plates in close gradients. Corner loss and wave-crest gaps are the most common completeness failure in open builds.
Gold-frame border plates: the gold/tan border pieces are distinctive. Check that all frame segments are present and that the color is consistent (fakes or mixed lots often show off-tone substitutions).
Canvas/backboard condition: the large display backing panel should be free of warping or stress marks. Warping indicates storage in humidity or direct sunlight.
Sealed listings: confirm tape seals are original and undisturbed on all flap edges. Box weight (manufacturer spec is available from LEGO's website) provides an additional integrity check.

Secondary — 75325 The Mandalorian's N-1 Starfighter

75325 N-1 Starfighter — Jun 21 key metrics

BrickRanker 6-month rolling averages, data refreshed Jun 2026. All figures USD.

BR 6-month avg (secondary market)	$37.50	−0.4%vs. Jun 14 checkpoint
Discount vs. $59.99 MSRP	37.5%
2-yr post-retirement forecast (mid)	14.98%
Total recorded sales	553
Forecast band (low → high)	−2.49% → +31.85%

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BrickRanker places this at $37.50 — a −37.5% discount to the $59.99 MSRP and the deepest single-entry discount in today's pool. The price dropped another $0.36 from the Jun 14 checkpoint, continuing a slow downward drift that has now exceeded $1.00 across the past two weeks. 2

The minifigure lineup is where most of the value sits. At $37.50, the four figures carry a combined BrickRanker value of $22.94 — 61% of the set's total market price. Two are exclusive to this set: Peli Motto ($7.28) and BD-72 ($6.29). The Mandalorian figure ($6.07) and Grogu ($3.31) each appear in other sets. 2

The caveat is the forecast: +14.98% mid, band from −2.49% to +31.85% — a 34.34pp spread, the widest in today's pool by a significant margin. The negative lower bound means BrickRanker's model assigns real probability to this set trading below its current secondary price post-retirement. That does not make it a bad buy — 553 total BR sales (highest liquidity in the Star Wars cluster today) and exclusive Peli Motto provide a value floor — but it does make the Hokusai the stronger hold argument if forecast confidence matters to you. 2

Other eligible entries

75405 Home One Starcruiser — −32.7%, fresh data

BR average dropped $0.62 from the Jun 13 checkpoint to $47.08 — a −32.7% discount, with data refreshed to Jun 2026. The 2-year forecast is +20.57% mid (band 13.71%–31.85%, 18.14pp). Zero minifigures means the value is fully tied to the ship model itself; the Admiral Ackbar-era Mon Calamari cruiser has a dedicated fan base but no figure-driven value floor. 3

75404 Acclamator-class Assault Ship — −27.6%, fresh data

Another $0.48 drop from the Jun 13 baseline puts BR at $36.19 — −27.6% off MSRP. Forecast: +21.20% mid (band 10.81%–29.97%, 19.16pp). 101 total sales, data fresh. No minifigures; the Republic-era assault ship model drives all value. Price-per-brick is $0.080 at 450 pieces. 5

75333 Obi-Wan Kenobi's Jedi Starfighter — tightest forecast band in pool

BR avg: $22.66 (−24.4% vs. $29.99 MSRP), data fresh. The Obi-Wan Starfighter carries the tightest forecast band in today's full pool: 10.67pp (+12.18%–+22.85%, mid +18.07%). With 1,568 total BR sales it is also by far the most liquid set tracked — more data means a tighter, more reliable model. All three figures are exclusive to this set: Taun We ($7.28), Obi-Wan Kenobi ($5.29), and R4-P17 ($3.97), combined $16.55 = 73% of set value. 7

The combination of tight band + exclusive figures + high liquidity makes this a strong secondary pick for buyers who weight forecast confidence over discount depth. The −24.4% discount is the second-shallowest in the pool after Hokusai, but the model certainty is unusually high for this price point.

75401 Ahsoka's Jedi Interceptor — minifig-heavy value structure

BR avg: $33.96 (−24.5% vs. $44.99 MSRP), data fresh, first baseline in this run. Forecast: +14.13% mid (band 2.39%–22.74%, 20.35pp). Two exclusive figures — Anakin Skywalker ($9.93) and Ahsoka in Padawan attire ($9.60) — plus R7-A7 ($5.52) total $25.04 = 74% of set value. A wider forecast band and modest mid forecast put this below the Obi-Wan Starfighter for confidence, but the Anakin figure is a named exclusive that tends to attract standalone demand. 6

10338 Bumblebee — ~31 days stale, first baseline

BR avg: $65.93 (−26.7% vs. $89.99 MSRP). Data is approximately 31 days old (last updated May 2026). Forecast: +23.57% mid (band 6.98%–32.37%, 25.39pp width). First time this set appears in a fresh tracking window — no prior checkpoint for trend comparison. Wide band reflects the thinner sales history (65 total). Flag for next run to confirm whether data refreshes to Jun 2026. 4

Sideboard: stale data

🚨 42161 Lamborghini Huracán Tecnica — 3 days to delisting threshold

BrickRanker's last recorded sale for the Huracán Tecnica was March 26, 2026 — the data is now 87 days stale as of Jun 21. BrickRanker operates a 90-day no-sale delisting threshold. That threshold triggers Jun 26, three days from today. If no new marketplace sale is recorded and processed by Jun 26, BrickRanker may drop this set from active tracking entirely. 9 10

The numbers on file — $37.67 (−24.6% vs. $49.99 MSRP), 806 pieces, Technic, +38.89% forecast mid (band 26.24%–49.06%) — are three months old and based on 23 total lifetime sales. The +38.89% mid is the highest forecast in the entire tracked pool, but that figure is anchored to a Mar 26 data snapshot, not any current trading. The last two recorded sales were both at $42.05 on Mar 26. Do not treat $37.67 as a live price quote. 9

The set is confirmed present in BrickRanker's retirement tracker with a Jul 31, 2026 tag. If a single new sale clears before Jun 26, the data may refresh and restore this set. If not, this radar will lose its BR data source for 42161 going forward. 10

10359 Fountain Garden — 56 days stale, wide band

BrickRanker's last update for the Fountain Garden is April 26, 2026 — 56 days stale as of today. BR avg: $67.66 (−32.3% vs. $99.99 MSRP), a $0.16 uptick from the Jun 19 checkpoint. Forecast: +29.04% mid (band 9.61%–41.67%, 32.06pp) — the second-widest band in today's pool. 8

At 26 total lifetime sales the data foundation is thin. The low end of the forecast (9.61%) barely clears typical inflation; the high (41.67%) is competitive. That 32pp gap indicates the model has limited confidence in where this set trades post-retirement. Not yet at the 90-day delisting threshold (34 days away), but trending there without a data refresh. Treat $67.66 as directionally useful, not as a current price quote. 8

Discount comparison

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Jun 21 discount comparison, all eligible sets. Fountain Garden (56d stale) and Bumblebee (~31d stale) marked with single asterisk — figures may not reflect current market. Huracán (87d stale, delisting risk Jun 26) marked with double asterisk — do not use as actionable quote. Sources: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Session notes

14th consecutive ultra-stable session. Five sets recorded BR price moves between Jun 19 and Jun 21: Hokusai −$1.01 (largest), Home One −$0.62, Acclamator −$0.48, N-1 Starfighter −$0.36, Obi-Wan Starfighter −$0.22. All moves are downward pressure — consistent with the slow drift that has held across this radar since late May. No pre-retirement scarcity premium has emerged for any Jul 31 set; prices continue compressing toward what appear to be floor levels. 1 10

Retirement tracker: 110 sets, 39 themes (−1 from Jun 19). The set count held at 110 for another session. Theme count dropped from 40 to 39 between Jun 19 and Jun 21 — one theme was removed or consolidated in BrickRanker's tracking. All nine sets monitored by this radar remain confirmed in the tracker with "Retiring soon!" tags and Jul 31, 2026 dates. 10

BrickRanker URL restructuring detected. All set detail pages have moved from the legacy /sets/{set-number} format to /rankings/set/{set-number}-1/{slug}. Old URLs return 404. The retirement tracker page URL is unchanged. All cite links in this edition reflect the new format. 10

44th consecutive zero-listing platform run. eBay, BrickLink, Mercari, Vinted, and Depop returned zero confirmed new listings for sealed retired LEGO sets across all 44 consecutive daily pulls. BrickRanker 6-month rolling averages remain the sole actionable price reference for this radar.

Price data: BrickRanker 6-month rolling averages fetched Jun 21, 2026 (window ending ~15:05 ET). All figures USD. Retirement dates are BrickRanker estimates and subject to change without notice. 10338 Bumblebee data is May 2026 (~31d) — treat as orientation. 10359 Fountain Garden data is Apr 26 (56d stale) — do not use as a live quote. 42161 Huracán Tecnica data is Mar 26 (87d stale), 90-day delisting threshold Jun 26 — not an actionable price. Verify all listings independently before purchasing.

Cover image: AI-generated product illustration

References

1
31208 Hokusai – The Great Wave — BrickRankerbrickranker.com
2
75325 N-1 Starfighter — BrickRankerbrickranker.com
3
75405 Home One Starcruiser — BrickRankerbrickranker.com
4
10338 Bumblebee — BrickRankerbrickranker.com
5
75404 Acclamator Assault Ship — BrickRankerbrickranker.com
6
75401 Ahsoka's Jedi Interceptor — BrickRankerbrickranker.com
7
75333 Obi-Wan Jedi Starfighter — BrickRankerbrickranker.com
8
10359 Fountain Garden — BrickRankerbrickranker.com
9
42161 Huracán Tecnica — BrickRankerbrickranker.com
10
BrickRanker Retirement Trackerbrickranker.com

Vintage LEGO Marketplace Radar

Weekly scan of out-of-production LEGO sets newly listed in the past week on eBay / Mercari / Vinted / Depop / BrickLink, ranked by rarity and discount strength, with authentication tips

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