14:30｜黄金4537.41美元，白银涨至68.93

{ "window_start_utc": "2026-08-21T01:30:00Z", "window_end_utc": "2026-08-21T06:30:00Z", "events": [ { "event_id": "Reuters-AU-20260821-gold-453741", "event_type": "supply_demand", "title": "现货黄金报 4537.41 美元，日内涨 0.4%", "event_time_utc": "2026-08-21T05:04:00Z", "event_time_quality": "exact", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T00:58:30.096Z", "asset_keys": ["AU"], "direction_score": {"AU": 1}, "confidence": 98, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_article_published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T00:58:30.096Z", "source_article_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-21T05:18:59.374Z", "observation_time_utc": "2026-08-21T05:04:00Z", "spot_gold_usd_per_oz": 4537.41, "intraday_change_pct": 0.4, "weekly_change_pct": 3.6, "u_s_gold_futures_usd_per_oz": 4593.90, "prior_channel_snapshot": { "spot_gold_usd_per_oz": 4514.23, "snapshot_window_end_utc": "2026-08-21T01:30:00Z" }, "derived_change_from_prior_channel_snapshot": { "current_value": 4537.41, "prior_value": 4514.23, "delta_usd_per_oz": 23.18, "delta_pct": 0.5135, "calculation": "(4537.41 - 4514.23) / 4514.23 × 100%" } }, "transmission_chain": "现货黄金在 05:04Z 报 4537.41 美元且周涨 3.6%→美元走弱与美国长端收益率变化提高美元计价黄金的相对吸引力→AU 较上一期窗口末快照上移 23.18 美元/盎司。", "invalidation_conditions": "若路透社更正现货黄金 4537.41 美元/盎司、观察时刻或涨幅，本事件按更正值失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/)](https://reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/gold-steadies-heads-third-straight-weekly-gain-2026-08-21/))"], "source_tier": "B" }, { "event_id": "Reuters-AG-20260821-silver-6893", "event_type": "supply_demand", "title": "现货白银报 68.93 美元，日内涨 1.3%", "event_time_utc": null, "event_time_quality": "day_only", "published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T00:58:30.096Z", "asset_keys": ["AG"], "direction_score": {"AG": 1}, "confidence": 97, "horizon": "intraday", "raw_facts": { "source_article_published_at_utc": "2026-08-21T00:58:30.096Z", "source_article_updated_at_utc": "2026-08-21T05:18:59.374Z", "source_report_date": "2026-08-21", "spot_silver_usd_per_oz": 68.93, "intraday_change_pct": 1.3, "prior_channel_snapshot": { "spot_silver_usd_per_oz": 68.03, "snapshot_window_end_utc": "2026-08-21T01:30:00Z" }, "derived_change_from_prior_channel_snapshot": { "current_value": 68.93, "prior_value": 68.03, "delta_usd_per_oz": 0.90, "delta_pct": 1.3229, "calculation": "(68.93 - 68.03) / 68.03 × 100%" } }, "transmission_chain": "现货白银在路透 8 月 21 日更新状态中报 68.93 美元且日内涨 1.3%→美元走弱和贵金属整体走强改善 AG 的美元计价表现→AG 较上一期窗口末快照上移 0.90 美元/盎司。", "invalidation_conditions": "若路透社更正 2026 年 8 月 21 日现货白银 68.93 美元/盎司或 1.3%的日内涨幅，本事件按更正值失效。", "source_urls": 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1.4, "u_s_treasury_10y_nominal_yield_pct": 4.7041, "u_s_treasury_10y_prior_overnight_change_basis_points": 4.5, "dollar_index": 98.76, "dollar_index_weekly_change_pct": -0.9, "usd_jpy": 159.01, "prior_channel_snapshot": { "u_s_treasury_30y_nominal_yield_pct": 5.25, "u_s_treasury_10y_nominal_yield_pct": 4.71, "dollar_index": 98.802, "snapshot_window_end_utc": "2026-08-21T01:30:00Z" }, "derived_change_from_prior_channel_snapshot": { "30y_yield_delta_percentage_points": 0.0008, "10y_yield_delta_percentage_points": -0.0059, "dollar_index_delta": -0.042, "calculation": "current value minus prior channel snapshot" } }, "transmission_chain": "美 30 年期名义收益率升至 5.2508%、10 年期报 4.7041%，美元指数报 98.76 且周内跌约 0.9%→高名义收益率压制无息资产、美元走弱降低非美元持有者的美元计价成本→AU 与 AG 的利率和汇率通道方向相互抵消。", "invalidation_conditions": "若路透社更正 2026 年 8 月 21 日的 30 年期收益率、10 年期收益率、美元指数或美元兑日元数值，本事件按更正值失效。", "source_urls": 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"spot_gold_weekly_change_reference_pct": 3, "reported_mechanism": "路透报道美国债务超过 40 万亿美元、财政状况与政策不确定性促使部分投资者转向黄金等替代资产", "prior_channel_snapshot": "上一期已记录美国制裁伊朗与霍尔木兹风险；本事件新增的是债务与美元资产信心通道" }, "transmission_chain": "路透报道美国债务超过 40 万亿美元且财政与政策不确定性加剧→部分资金寻求黄金等美元资产替代品→AU 与 AG 获得中期避险和分散美元资产的正向传导。", "invalidation_conditions": "若路透社撤回美国债务规模、改变对资金转向替代资产的表述，或后续财政整顿显著改善美元资产信心，本事件的传导假设失效。", "source_urls": ["[https://www.[reuters.com/business/dollar-wobbles-investors-balk-us-treasurys-rescue-efforts-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/dollar-wobbles-investors-balk-us-treasurys-rescue-efforts-2026-08-21/)](https://reuters.com/business/dollar-wobbles-investors-balk-us-treasurys-rescue-efforts-2026-08-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/dollar-wobbles-investors-balk-us-treasurys-rescue-efforts-2026-08-21/))"], "source_tier": "B" } ], "coverage_gaps": [ { "coverage": "GLD/SLV 持仓每日变动", "status": "unverified", "attempted_route": "本轮改用 Google 定向检索 SSGA 和 iShares 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