September 20 LEGO radar: Hogwarts Astronomy Tower leads eight dated listings, all above market
Eight retired LEGO sets carry a verifiable September 13–20 posting date, and the sealed Hogwarts Astronomy Tower at $95.30 landed comes closest to its six-month completed-sale average, at 37.5% above it.
The monitoring window ran from September 13 to September 20, 2026, 10:00 GMT-5. Eight out-of-production sets went up for sale inside it carrying a posting date the listing itself shows, every one of them on Mercari. That posting date is what makes this screen different from earlier editions of this radar, which could only hold asking prices up against market averages.
The eight share a second property, and it is the one that matters for a wallet. Ranked by what a buyer actually pays — asking price, shipping and Mercari's buyer-protection fee together — all eight land above their six-month completed-sale average on BrickLink, with the gap running from 37.5% to 109.4%. So this week's screen is a list of ceilings. Each entry below carries the set's real number, the specific thing to inspect on that set, and the price to negotiate toward.
Eight dated listings, and what they cost landed
| # | Set · theme · retirement | Posted · condition | Ask | Landed | Reference | Premium | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 75969 Hogwarts Astronomy Tower · Harry Potter · 2020, retired 2024 1 | Sep 20 · New, factory sealed 2 | $80.00 | $95.30 | $69.29 sealed / $48.42 used 1 | +37.5% | Leave; $69 ceiling |
| 2 | 76916 Porsche 963 · Speed Champions · 2023, retired 3 | Sep 16 · Like new, sealed box dented 4 | $20.76 | $34.79 | $22.06 sealed / $12.25 used 3 | +57.7% | Leave; $22 ceiling |
| 3 | 75376 Tantive IV · Star Wars · 2024 5 | Sep 17 · New, factory sealed 6 | $76.00 | $86.99 | $54.52 sealed / $36.46 used 5 | +59.6% | Leave; $55 ceiling |
| 4 | 75954 Hogwarts Great Hall · Harry Potter · 2018, retired 7 | Sep 13 · New, factory sealed 8 | $150.00 | $163.65 | $99.25 sealed / $55.17 used 7 | +64.9% | Leave; $99 ceiling |
| 5 | 75948 Hogwarts Clock Tower · Harry Potter · 2019, retired 9 | Sep 13 · Used, Good; box and instructions included 10 | $70.00 | $80.77 | $47.99 used / $77.42 sealed 9 | +68.3% | Negotiate to $60–65 |
| 6 | 76908 Lamborghini Countach · Speed Champions · 2022, retired 11 | Sep 18 · Used, Good; complete, no box or instructions 12 | $17.75 | $24.25 | $14.39 used / $23.97 sealed 11 | +68.5% | Leave; $15 ceiling |
| 7 | 10976 Santa's Gingerbread House · Duplo · 2022, retired 13 | Sep 20 · New, sealed 14 | $55.00 | $65.23 | $33.96 sealed / $24.99 used 13 | +92.1% | Leave; $34 ceiling |
| 8 | 75324 Dark Trooper Attack · Star Wars · 2022, retired 15 | Sep 14 · Used, Good; no box or instructions 16 | $33.00 | $44.53 | $21.26 used / $29.19 sealed 15 | +109.4% | Pass; $22 ceiling |
Read the Landed column before the Ask column. Shipping and the buyer-protection fee add between 9% and 68% to the price on the card, and one listing changes verdict when they do. Reference is the BrickLink six-month completed-sale average for the set in the condition it is listed in, used or sealed. Premium measures the landed total against that same figure, which is the strict test: a sealed box is held to the sealed average, a used build to the used one.
75969 Hogwarts Astronomy Tower, sealed, 37.5% over sealed
The best of this week's eight is the least remarkable-looking: a factory-sealed 2020 Hogwarts set posted on September 20 from Washington. The seller asks $80.00, charges $11.99 to ship, and Mercari adds $3.31 in buyer protection, which puts the set in hand at $95.30. Sealed copies of 75969 have averaged $69.29 over the past six months and used ones $48.42, so the landed price runs 37.5% above the sealed average and 96.8% above the used one. 12
The description does most of the work for a buyer. The seller reports the box factory sealed with no shelf wear, and describes the set as a 2020 release retired in 2024 with 971 pieces and 8 minifigures. 2 On a sealed box the figure roster cannot be short, so the only thing left to verify is the seal itself, and the distance between $95.30 and $69.29 is what the convenience of a sealed 2024 retirement is costing this week.
76916 Porsche 963, a small discount that postage erases
This one was posted September 16 from Ohio at $20.76, a 10% markdown from the seller's own $23.00. That asking price sits 5.9% below the $22.06 sealed average for 76916, the only figure in this table that flatters the listing. Postage is $12.83 and the buyer-protection fee $1.20, so the set costs $34.79 to own — 57.7% above the sealed average and 184% above the used one. 34
The condition label and the description disagree in a way worth catching. Mercari files the listing as Like new, while the seller writes: "Never been opened. Box itself has some dents on it but the Legos have never been out of the box. It is sealed still." 4 On a boxed set only one of those claims changes the value, and it is the dent. Ask which panels carry it and whether the factory tape on both flaps is unbroken before offering anything, then add the $12.83 to whatever number the seller names.
75376 Tantive IV, sealed at list price plus postage
Posted September 17 from Illinois, this listing asks $76.00 against the set's own $80.00 MSRP, which the seller prints in the description, and carries the set at $86.99 landed once $7.97 shipping and a $3.02 fee are added. Sealed copies of 75376 have averaged $54.52 and used ones $36.46 over six months. 56
A 2024 release at $86.99 landed is the weakest case on this list for paying a secondary-market price at all. Brick'em's own page reports that the set may still be sitting at retailers, which would make the sealed premium here a bet on a retirement that has only just happened. 5 Check retail stock before paying above list for it.
75954 Hogwarts Great Hall, the oldest set here and the steepest sealed premium
The Great Hall was posted September 13 from Louisiana at $150.00, with $7.97 shipping and a $5.68 fee, for $163.65 landed. Sealed copies average $99.25 and used ones $55.17. 78
Released in 2018, 75954 is the oldest set in this week's cohort, which is the only sense in which it is scarce: BrickLink records an 11-figure roster worth $29.90 inside the $55.17 used average, so 54% of a used copy's value sits in the figures, and a single missing figure moves the price by a visible amount. 7 On this sealed listing the roster is fixed; the $64.40 between the asking price and the sealed average is not.
75948 Hogwarts Clock Tower, the only used copy with its box
Posted September 13 from Missouri, this is the listing on this week's screen I would spend real effort on. The seller asks $70.00, already 7% off a $75.00 list, plus $7.97 shipping and a $2.80 fee: $80.77 in hand. The used average for 75948 is $47.99, which the landed price beats by 68.3%, and the sealed average is $77.42, which it just passes. 910
The case for negotiating rests on three sentences from the seller: built once and displayed, comes with box and instructions, all minifigures included, and ships bubble wrapped. 10 Those extras are why a boxed copy can carry more than the $47.99 bare-used average, and they are also why this listing is worth a message. The eight figures hold $23.03 of that $47.99, and each one sits under $3.50 on its own, so a single missing figure costs real money without being obvious from a photo. 9 Ask for a photograph of all eight figures together and both instruction books before making an offer; $60 to $65 landed is the range that puts a boxed, complete copy at a fair price rather than at sealed-box money.
76908 Lamborghini Countach, cheap and everywhere
Posted September 18 from Pennsylvania, this listing asks $17.75, the lowest number in the table, with $5.66 postage and an $0.84 fee, for $24.25 landed. The used average is $14.39 and the sealed average $23.97. 1112
The asking price reads as a 23% premium over the used average; the landed price is a 68.5% one. The sale includes the driver minifigure and parts, applied stickers, and the build broken into numbered bags, with no box and no instruction booklet. 12 Stickers are where this set is decided: ask for a photograph of the applied sheet, since a hand-cut or reprinted set of decals is the usual giveaway on a used Speed Champions car, and confirm the driver's helmet carries its printed mark. 11
10976 Santa's Gingerbread House, Duplo at 92% over
Posted September 20 from Georgia, this one is the clearest example of the week of what the word "retired" is doing in a listing title. The seller asks $55.00 for a sealed 2022 Duplo Christmas set, plus $7.97 shipping and a $2.26 fee, for $65.23 landed. Sealed copies of 10976 average $33.96 and used ones $24.99. 1314
Two forces make this the steepest premium in the table. Duplo retires and reappears constantly, so a 2022 Christmas set has a thin collector premium, and the seller has marked the set up rather than down. The listing itself reports 50 pieces, a gingerbread house, a Christmas tree and the holiday figures. 14 Ask for the figures in one photograph and check the wordmark moulded into the studs; at $65.23 the set is being sold as a collectible, and it should meet the same standard as one.
75324 Dark Trooper Attack, 109% over with the value in the figures
Posted September 14 from California, this listing asks $33.00 for the diorama with $9.99 shipping and a $1.54 fee, for $44.53 landed. The used average is $21.26 and the sealed average $29.19. 1516
This is the one listing on the screen I would leave alone outright, and the reason is in BrickLink's own numbers. Four figures — three Dark Troopers at $4.70 each and a Luke Skywalker at $5.33 — hold $19.42 of the $21.26 used average, 91% of the set's value. 15 The seller sells it "as is", states that instructions and the original box are not included, and warns that the description was written to the best of a non-expert's knowledge. 16 At $44.53 landed, an incomplete figure roster would leave a buyer with a pile of grey bricks.
Five-minute verification protocol
- Price the figures before the set. Figure value is concentrated enough on this week's listings that a roster decides the deal: 91% of the used average on 75324, 54% on 75954, 48% on 75948 and 42% on 75969. Ask for every figure in one photograph and count them against the set's roster.
- Ask for the sticker sheet on both Speed Champions cars. 76908 and 76916 carry their liveries in decals, and applied stickers are the first thing a reprint gets wrong.
- Check the stud. Genuine LEGO and Duplo studs carry a moulded wordmark. Blank studs on a listing advertised as a retired set point to a clone brand, and this matters most on the sealed 10976, where the box is the only thing being sold on trust.
- On sealed boxes, photograph the tape folds. 75969, 75376 and the dented 76916 all claim factory seals, and the fold pattern and residue on both flaps is what separates a resealed box from a factory one.
- Recompute the landed total before you offer. Shipping and the buyer-protection fee add between 9% and 68% to the price in the title. The two biggest movers this week were 76916, where shipping and the fee came to 68% of the asking price, and 76908 at 37%.
Bottom line
No listing on this week's screen is worth its asking price, and the useful output is the ceiling for each one. The 75969 Hogwarts Astronomy Tower is the closest of the eight to fair, and $69 in hand would make it fair rather than $95.30. The 75948 Hogwarts Clock Tower is the only entry worth writing to a seller about, because it is the only used copy arriving with its box, its instructions and all eight figures; $60 to $65 landed is the number to put in that message. The remaining six are saved searches rather than purchases: $22 for the Porsche 963, $55 for the Tantive IV, $99 for the Great Hall, $15 for the Countach, $34 for the gingerbread house, and $22 for the Dark Trooper diorama.
All eight dated postings came from Mercari. No eBay, Vinted, Depop or BrickLink listing that could be read this week carried a posting date inside the window, so the screen covers one of the five marketplaces the radar tracks. Every reference figure above is the BrickLink six-month completed-sale average reported by brick'em for the set in the condition it is listed in; BrickLink's own seller supply counts were unreachable, so scarcity in this edition rests on retirement year and on how much of each set's value sits in its figures.
References
- 1
- 2
- 3brick'em: Porsche 963 76916-1\
brickem.io
- 4
- 5brick'em: Tantive IV 75376-1\
brickem.io
- 6Mercari: LEGO Star Wars Tantive IV 75376\
mercari.com
- 7brick'em: Hogwarts Great Hall 75954-1\
brickem.io
- 8
- 9brick'em: Hogwarts Clock Tower 75948-1\
brickem.io
- 10
- 11brick'em: Lamborghini Countach 76908-1\
brickem.io
- 12
- 13
- 14
- 15brick'em: Dark Trooper Attack 75324-1\
brickem.io
- 16
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