Geopolitics Daily Brief — August 28, 2026: Chip tariffs, NORSI halt and Hormuz conditions

1. U.S. weighs broader semiconductor tariffs

• The Trump administration is considering a new round of sweeping semiconductor tariffs that could cover not only chips but products that use them, including laptops, gaming consoles, and data-centre servers, Politico reported on Thursday, citing eight people familiar with the discussions. 1
• Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick favors tying foreign companies' relief from the duties to investment in U.S. chip manufacturing; a phase-in period is also under discussion, and the precise rate and other key details have not been settled. 1
• A White House official told Reuters any reporting about tariffs should be regarded as "baseless speculation" unless officially announced; Reuters said it could not independently verify the Politico report. 2

2. German industry presses Merz for tougher China trade tools

• German industry is pressing Chancellor Friedrich Merz for stronger action against what companies describe as unfair Chinese competition, a shift in a country that long resisted trade barriers for fear of retaliation. 3
• Germany's trade deficit with China widened by about €22 billion last year to €89.3 billion ($104.05 billion), as imports rose 8.8% and exports fell 9.7%. 3
• Merz said on Wednesday he had asked the cabinet to draft proposals on EU–China trade imbalances; the BDI wants faster safeguards and bundled anti-dumping cases, and people close to the talks said Merz has signalled support for a Brussels package if October EU–China talks fail. China denies unfair subsidies or currency undervaluation. 3

3. NORSI refinery halts processing after drone strike

• Russia's fourth-largest oil refinery and second-largest gasoline producer, NORSI, suspended crude processing on Wednesday after a Ukrainian drone attack, three industry sources told Reuters. 4
• The attack damaged several processing units, inter-unit infrastructure, and general plant facilities; repair time was not known, and owner Lukoil did not immediately respond. 4
• NORSI can process about 15 million metric tons of crude a year and produces about 5 million tons of gasoline; with Perm halted after an August 21 attack and Volgograd suspended since July 31, all of Lukoil's major Russian refineries are now offline. 4

4. Hormuz diplomacy turns on Iran's conditions list

• Qatar's prime minister met senior Iranian leaders in Tehran on Thursday and stressed freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz; Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said Iran is preparing a list of conditions to reopen the waterway after mediators asked Tehran to set them out. 5
• Rezaei said Iran and Oman have agreed a corridor with segments in each country's waters and a designated central channel if the U.S. meets Iran's conditions; past Iranian demands have included ending the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, compensation, and sanctions relief. 5
• U.S. Central Command's Admiral Brad Cooper said shipping lanes are open and U.S. forces have helped 1,500 commercial vessels carrying nearly 750 million barrels of crude transit the strait, while ship-tracking services put activity at roughly 5% to 15% of normal volumes; the U.N. International Maritime Organization has reported 70 incidents and 19 seafarer deaths since the war began. 5

5. Taiwan parliament reshapes the military-drone budget

• Taiwan's opposition-controlled parliament on Thursday rejected the government's T$210 billion ($6.6 billion) special-budget plan to buy about 210,000 military drones through 2031. 7
• Lawmakers instead passed an opposition plan that sets annual drone spending at T$40 billion in principle, or T$240 billion over six years, drawn from the annual budget and able to rise if needed. 7
• Defence Minister Wellington Koo has said a T$40 billion annual cap would hinder drone combat capability because the ministry already planned to spend T$42.1 billion on drones in 2027 alone; Premier Cho Jung-tai said he would weigh whether the passed bill meets national security and industry needs before deciding whether to sign it. 7